Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 20 | 20 | 103 | 438 | 79 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 13.3% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 4.30 | 4.74 | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A | Down East Wood Ducks | 20 | 20 | 103 | 438 | 79 | 28 | 11 | 100% | 5.1 | 18.0% | 6.4% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 3.77 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 23 | 17 | 89 | 375 | 70 | 29 | 10 | 74% | 3.9 | 14.4% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 4.48 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Hickory Crawdads | 23 | 17 | 89 | 375 | 70 | 29 | 10 | 74% | 3.9 | 18.7% | 7.7% | 10.9% | 2.7% | 4.96 | 3.97 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 115 | 517 | 75 | 43 | 16 | 89% | 4.2 | 12.5% | 8.6% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 6.36 | 4.89 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 24 | 115 | 517 | 75 | 43 | 16 | 89% | 4.2 | 14.5% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 6.36 | 4.73 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 17 | 108 | 500 | 76 | 55 | 10 | 65% | 4.1 | 12.3% | 12.0% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 5.68 | 4.44 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 17 | 108 | 500 | 76 | 55 | 10 | 65% | 4.1 | 15.2% | 11.0% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 5.68 | 4.43 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 33 | 157 | 26 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 2.2 | 13.2% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.18 | 5.26 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 0 | 33 | 157 | 26 | 12 | 5 | 0% | 2.2 | 16.6% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 3.2% | 5.18 | 4.58 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | TEX | 6 | 6 | 33 | 141 | 24 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.6 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.83 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 5 | 5 | 33 | 139 | 25 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.6 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.81 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TEX | 2 | 2 | 12 | 51 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.81 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 12 | 52 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.43 | +0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 146 | 81 | 32 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.43 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 111 | 78 | 447 | 1987 | 259 | 184 | 55 | 70% | 4.0 | 13.0% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 5.36 | 4.69 | +3.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 35 | 200 | 889 | 116 | 82 | 25 | 70% | 4.0 | 13.0% | 9.2% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 5.36 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nick Krauth (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.83 | 17.3% | 9.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.81 | 17.9% | 8.1% | 33 | -0.02 | — | — | — |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 81 |
| Justin Topa R 2027 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.05 | 15.1% | 7.9% | 2.2% | .374 | 2.66 | 19.2% | 12.6% | 40 | -1.39 | 2.66 | 259 | 81 |
| Bryce Morrow R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.48 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 2.7% | .316 | 5.59 | 10.1% | -0.2% | 50 | +1.11 | 4.48 | 125 | 80 |
| Jake Dunning R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.65 | 13.4% | 9.6% | 4.5% | .354 | 4.21 | 14.1% | 2.8% | 74 | -1.44 | 4.13 | 120 | 80 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 79 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 76 |
| David Griffin R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.94 | 16.6% | 9.8% | 3.7% | .285 | 6.04 | 14.5% | 4.2% | 81 | +1.10 | 4.52 | 239 | 76 |
| Dawson Netz R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.42 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 3.5% | .225 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.42 | 102 | 75 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 12.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .346 | 4.97 | 14.0% | 5.3% | 138 | +0.16 | 4.54 | 224 | 75 |
| Jake Walkinshaw R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 17.5% | 6.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 4.92 | 13.3% | 3.1% | 116 | +0.26 | 2.20 | 286 | 75 |
| Chase Centala R 2024 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.16 | 17.4% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.16 | 124 | 74 |
| Max Beatty R 2026 · 3.69 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.69 | 13.2% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 117 | 74 |
| Nick Pasquale R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.73 | 16.8% | 12.7% | 2.6% | .306 | 3.97 | 17.9% | 6.3% | 50 | -0.76 | 3.16 | 308 | 74 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.16 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.5% | .309 | 3.28 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.88 | 3.28 | 252 | 74 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 73 |
| Brian Edgington R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.05 | 19.3% | 12.3% | 3.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 171 | 73 |
| Stolmy Pimentel R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.79 | 13.6% | 10.5% | 0.9% | .379 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 143 | 73 |
| Cody Sedlock R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.83 | 19.9% | 10.9% | 3.7% | .301 | 4.18 | 20.1% | 7.1% | 80 | -0.65 | 4.16 | 378 | 73 |
| Paul Clemens R 2027 · 5.36 FIP | 27 | SP- | 5.36 | 14.3% | 14.1% | 3.1% | .310 | 4.76 | 16.9% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.60 | 4.76 | 247 | 73 |
| Brandt Thompson R 2024 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 2.8% | .326 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.35 | 162 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 33 | 17.6% | 9.8% | 1.11 | 4.82 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |