Travis Lakins — OGILVIE

Travis Lakins P Charlotte Knights

Age 32 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.67

FIP4.72

K%21.9%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%11.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p1220.0%

p1016.0%

xwOBA vs

p100.433

FB-1.2

CT-3.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	22	A+ MLE	Salem Red Sox	19	18	91	418	79	36	8	95%	4.8	14.6%	9.9%	4.6%	3.0%	5.93	4.79	—
2016	22	A+ RAW	Salem Red Sox	19	18	91	418	79	36	8	95%	4.8	18.9%	8.6%	10.3%	1.9%	5.93	3.69	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	15	68	293	62	34	4	100%	4.6	16.6%	13.0%	3.6%	1.7%	4.21	4.28	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	15	68	293	62	34	4	100%	4.6	21.2%	11.6%	9.6%	1.4%	4.21	3.54	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	6	54	223	57	18	3	17%	1.5	21.2%	8.8%	12.4%	1.4%	2.32	3.18	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	6	54	223	57	18	3	17%	1.5	25.6%	8.1%	17.5%	1.3%	2.32	2.71	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	4	68	303	60	31	5	7%	1.2	18.1%	10.6%	7.5%	1.7%	4.35	3.86	+0.6
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	4	68	303	60	31	5	7%	1.2	19.8%	10.2%	9.6%	1.7%	4.35	3.66	+0.7
2020	26	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	22	0	26	116	25	13	2	0%	1.2	21.6%	11.2%	10.3%	1.6%	2.81	3.55	+0.3
2020	26	MLB RAW	Baltimore Orioles	22	0	26	116	25	13	2	0%	1.2	21.6%	11.2%	10.3%	1.7%	2.81	3.68	+0.3
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	1	30	134	25	19	5	4%	1.2	19.5%	13.8%	5.7%	2.9%	5.93	4.81	-0.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	1	30	134	25	19	5	4%	1.2	18.7%	14.2%	4.5%	3.7%	5.93	5.47	-0.3
2022	28	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	4	22	113	15	17	7	29%	1.6	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	6.0%	9.67	6.59	-0.5
2022	28	MIX RAW	4 levels	14	4	22	113	15	17	7	29%	1.6	13.3%	15.0%	-1.8%	6.2%	9.67	8.11	-0.9
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	28	126	40	9	3	0%	1.2	23.5%	7.0%	16.5%	2.8%	5.72	3.51	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	28	126	40	9	3	0%	1.2	23.5%	7.0%	16.5%	2.8%	5.72	3.51	—
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	28	126	40	9	3	0%	1.2	31.7%	7.1%	24.6%	2.4%	5.72	2.61	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			68	4	87	391	75	45	10	6%	1.3	19.2%	11.5%	7.7%	2.6%	4.84	4.42	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	32	MLB	CWS	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	21.9%	10.5%	11.4%	3.2%	4.67	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	33	MLB MLE	CWS	48	0	50	211	45	23	7	0%	1.0	21.2%	10.9%	10.4%	3.5%	4.82	4.96	-0.2
2028	34	MLB MLE	CWS	43	0	45	192	39	22	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.7%	5.03	5.21	-0.3
2029	35	MLB MLE	CWS	39	0	41	172	34	20	7	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.7%	8.0%	4.0%	5.30	5.50	-0.4
2027	33	MLB CTX	CWS	17	0	18	76	16	8	3	0%	1.1	21.2%	10.9%	10.4%	3.5%	4.82	4.96	-0.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	CWS	14	0	15	63	13	7	2	0%	1.1	20.5%	11.2%	9.3%	3.7%	5.03	5.21	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	CWS	10	0	11	46	9	5	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.7%	8.0%	4.0%	5.30	5.50	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		110	4	132	578	114	66	17	4%	1.2	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	2.9%	4.90	4.49	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		167	6	200	878	173	100	26	4%	1.2	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	2.9%	4.90	4.49	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		212	48	389	1726	310	185	42	23%	1.8	18.0%	10.7%	7.3%	2.4%	4.84	4.28	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		109	25	200	888	160	95	22	23%	1.8	18.0%	10.7%	7.3%	2.4%	4.84	4.28	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Travis Lakins (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	21.9%	10.5%	3.2%	—	5.21	20.5%	9.3%	136	+0.49	—	—	—
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	78
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	78
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	77
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	77
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	77
Joakim Soria R 2016 · 4.33 FIP	32	SU	4.33	23.2%	9.2%	3.7%	.319	2.63	28.5%	21.7%	186	-1.70	2.01	380	76
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	76
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	75
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	75
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	74
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	74
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	74
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	73
Jonathan Broxton R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	32	SU	3.77	22.0%	7.3%	2.9%	.256	4.34	20.5%	9.0%	16	+0.57	3.67	137	73
Miguel Socolovich R 2018 · 3.55 FIP	32	SU	3.55	20.8%	5.6%	2.7%	.338	3.55	18.4%	13.7%	42	+0.00	2.65	283	72
Erik Davis R 2018 · 3.52 FIP	31	SU	3.52	17.4%	8.9%	1.4%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	227	72
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	72
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	72
Danny Farquhar R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	30	SU	3.62	22.3%	11.0%	1.8%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	224	72
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	71

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	48	20.9%	11.0%	1.38	4.93
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33