Travis Lakins
P
Charlotte Knights
+0.1
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP5.75
SIERA5.07
K%23.0%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.7%
IP22
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5050
CTRL3535
CMD3535
K†5050
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1220.0%
K%
p1016.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.433
FB-1.2
CT-3.3
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 19 | 18 | 91 | 418 | 79 | 36 | 8 | 14.6% | 9.9% | 2.8% | 5.93 | 4.67 | +0.6 |
| 2017 | 23 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 15 | 15 | 68 | 293 | 62 | 34 | 4 | 16.6% | 13.0% | 1.7% | 4.21 | 4.27 | +0.6 |
| 2018 | 24 | AAA | Pawtucket Red Sox | 36 | 6 | 54 | 223 | 57 | 18 | 3 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 1.4% | 2.32 | 3.21 | +1.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 56 | 4 | 68 | 303 | 60 | 31 | 5 | 18.1% | 10.6% | 1.7% | 4.35 | 3.86 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 22 | 0 | 26 | 116 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 21.6% | 11.2% | 1.8% | 2.81 | 3.67 | +0.4 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 26 | 1 | 30 | 134 | 25 | 19 | 5 | 19.5% | 13.8% | 2.7% | 5.93 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 14 | 4 | 22 | 113 | 15 | 17 | 7 | 16.0% | 12.0% | 6.3% | 9.67 | 6.73 | -0.4 |
| 2024 | 30 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 24 | 0 | 28 | 126 | 40 | 9 | 3 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 2.7% | 5.72 | 3.54 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 22 | — | 22 | 93 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 21.9% | 10.8% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.75 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 21 | — | 21 | 89 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 21.3% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 4.76 | 4.83 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 212 | 48 | 389 | 1726 | 311 | 186 | 41 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.4% | 4.84 | 4.26 | +4.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 25 | 200 | 888 | 160 | 96 | 21 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 2.4% | 4.84 | 4.26 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Travis Lakins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.75 | 21.9% | 10.8% | 3.2% | — | 4.83 | 21.4% | 10.6% | 21 | +0.08 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 96 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 85 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 83 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 83 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.19 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .362 | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.05 | 2.99 | 227 | 81 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 80 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 80 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 79 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 79 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 79 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 78 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 78 |
| Miguel Mejia R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.33 | 15.7% | 10.7% | 2.2% | .341 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.35 | 108 | 77 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 77 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.75 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 3.7% | .265 | 3.96 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 110 | -0.79 | 2.89 | 227 | 76 |
| Dan Winkler R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.85 | 24.4% | 14.0% | 1.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.47 | 231 | 76 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 76 |
| Jeff Manship R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 76 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.