Travis Lakins
P
Charlotte Knights
Age 32
RHP
6'1" / 220 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 54 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126117vR 108
ERA4.68
FIP4.73
K%22.1%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%11.3%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 54 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p4394.0
Whiff%
p1220.0%
K%
p1016.0%
xwOBA vs
p100.433
FB-1.2
CT-3.3
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 19 | 18 | 91 | 418 | 79 | 36 | 8 | 95% | 4.8 | 14.6% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.93 | 5.41 | — |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Salem Red Sox | 19 | 18 | 91 | 418 | 79 | 36 | 8 | 95% | 4.8 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 1.9% | 5.93 | 3.69 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 68 | 293 | 62 | 34 | 4 | 100% | 4.6 | 16.6% | 13.0% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 4.21 | 4.29 | — |
| 2017 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 15 | 15 | 68 | 293 | 62 | 34 | 4 | 100% | 4.6 | 21.2% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 1.4% | 4.21 | 3.54 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 6 | 54 | 223 | 57 | 18 | 3 | 17% | 1.5 | 21.2% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 1.2% | 2.32 | 3.09 | — |
| 2018 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 6 | 54 | 223 | 57 | 18 | 3 | 17% | 1.5 | 25.6% | 8.1% | 17.5% | 1.3% | 2.32 | 2.71 | — |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 4 | 68 | 303 | 60 | 31 | 5 | 7% | 1.2 | 18.1% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 1.7% | 4.35 | 3.83 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 56 | 4 | 68 | 303 | 60 | 31 | 5 | 7% | 1.2 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 4.35 | 3.66 | +0.9 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 22 | 0 | 26 | 116 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.6% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 1.6% | 2.81 | 3.58 | +0.3 |
| 2020 | 26 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 22 | 0 | 26 | 116 | 25 | 13 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.6% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 1.7% | 2.81 | 3.68 | +0.3 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 1 | 30 | 134 | 25 | 19 | 5 | 4% | 1.2 | 19.5% | 13.8% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 5.93 | 4.86 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 1 | 30 | 134 | 25 | 19 | 5 | 4% | 1.2 | 18.7% | 14.2% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.93 | 5.47 | -0.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 14 | 4 | 22 | 113 | 15 | 17 | 7 | 29% | 1.6 | 16.0% | 12.0% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 9.67 | 6.33 | -0.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | MIX | 4 levels | 14 | 4 | 22 | 113 | 15 | 17 | 7 | 29% | 1.6 | 13.3% | 15.0% | -1.8% | 6.2% | 9.67 | 8.11 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 28 | 126 | 40 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.1% | 7.8% | 16.3% | 2.7% | 5.72 | 3.51 | — |
| 2024 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 28 | 126 | 40 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.2 | 31.7% | 7.1% | 24.6% | 2.4% | 5.72 | 2.61 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | CWS | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 51 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.1% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.73 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 45 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.97 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 43 | 0 | 45 | 192 | 39 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.05 | 5.22 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 39 | 0 | 41 | 172 | 34 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.8% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 5.31 | 5.51 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CWS | 17 | 0 | 18 | 76 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 3.4% | 4.84 | 4.97 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CWS | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.6% | 11.4% | 9.2% | 3.7% | 5.05 | 5.22 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CWS | 10 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.8% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 4.0% | 5.31 | 5.51 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 110 | 4 | 132 | 578 | 114 | 66 | 17 | 4% | 1.2 | 19.7% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.49 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 6 | 200 | 878 | 173 | 100 | 26 | 4% | 1.2 | 19.7% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 2.9% | 4.91 | 4.49 | +2.1 | ||
| Career | — | 212 | 48 | 389 | 1726 | 311 | 186 | 46 | 23% | 1.8 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 4.40 | +4.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 25 | 200 | 888 | 160 | 96 | 24 | 23% | 1.8 | 18.0% | 10.8% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 4.84 | 4.40 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Travis Lakins (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.73 | 22.1% | 10.8% | 3.2% | — | 5.22 | 20.6% | 9.2% | 136 | +0.49 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 78 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 78 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 77 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 77 |
| Angel Castro R 2026 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 76 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 76 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 76 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 76 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 76 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 74 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 73 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 73 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2024 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 73 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.60 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.59 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | -0.01 | 2.60 | 283 | 73 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 73 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.91 | 16.2% | 7.1% | 4.2% | .272 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.93 | 337 | 72 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 72 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.06 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.48 | 17.6% | 3.6% | 14 | +0.42 | 3.03 | 256 | 72 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.28 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .362 | 4.22 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.06 | 2.90 | 227 | 72 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 48 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 1.38 | 4.94 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |