Derek Diamond

P Indianapolis Indians

Age 26 RHP 6'2" / 210 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%10%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	23	A+PIT	23	19	96	4.80	4.13	20.3%	4.6%	—	K 15.6% · BB 5.3% · FIP 4.88
2025	24	MIX3 levels	13	1	19	11.64	3.93	19.2%	9.6%	—	K 11.9% · BB 13.4% · FIP 5.60
2026	25	MIX4 levels	37	2	58	2.48	2.50	24.6%	3.9%	—	K 18.7% · BB 4.0% · FIP 3.38
2027PROJ	26	MLBPIT	13	0	14	4.41	4.41	18.6%	7.0%	0.0
2028PROJ33% MLB	27	MLBPIT	35	0	37	4.42	4.43	18.9%	7.1%	0.1
2029PROJ50% MLB	28	MLBPIT	47	0	49	4.46	4.50	19.0%	7.3%	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.2 / P90 1.8, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 91%

CompsWillis Roberts (age 26) · Roberto Gómez (age 27) · Ryan Tapani (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.41

FIP4.41

K%18.6%

BB%7.0%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP140

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	FCL Pirates	3	0	4	15	4	1	0	0%	1.3	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.69	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	FCL Pirates	3	0	4	15	4	1	0	0%	1.3	26.7%	6.7%	20.0%	0.0%	0.00	1.85	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	21	120	505	97	30	16	88%	5.0	14.4%	6.9%	7.5%	3.6%	4.74	4.73	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	21	120	505	97	30	16	88%	5.0	19.2%	5.9%	13.3%	3.2%	4.74	3.97	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	23	19	96	409	83	19	16	83%	4.2	15.6%	5.3%	10.3%	4.4%	4.80	4.88	—
2024	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	23	19	96	409	83	19	16	83%	4.2	15.6%	5.3%	10.3%	4.4%	4.80	4.88	—
2024	23	A+ RAW	Greensboro Grasshoppers	23	19	96	409	83	19	16	83%	4.2	20.3%	4.6%	15.6%	3.9%	4.80	4.13	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	1	19	104	20	10	2	8%	1.5	11.9%	13.4%	-1.6%	3.3%	11.64	5.60	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	1	19	104	20	10	2	8%	1.5	11.9%	13.4%	-1.6%	3.3%	11.64	5.60	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	1	19	104	20	10	2	8%	1.5	19.2%	9.6%	9.6%	1.9%	11.64	3.93	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	2	58	232	57	9	4	5%	1.6	18.7%	4.0%	14.7%	2.5%	2.48	3.38	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	37	2	58	232	57	9	4	5%	1.6	18.7%	4.0%	14.7%	2.5%	2.48	3.38	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	37	2	58	232	57	9	4	5%	1.6	24.6%	3.9%	20.7%	1.7%	2.48	2.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	PIT	13	0	14	59	11	4	2	0%	1.1	18.6%	7.0%	11.6%	2.9%	4.41	4.41	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	106	0	111	469	89	34	14	0%	1.0	18.9%	7.1%	11.7%	3.0%	4.42	4.43	+0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	PIT	93	0	97	410	78	30	13	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	3.1%	4.46	4.50	+0.1
2030	29	MLB MLE	PIT	84	0	88	371	70	28	12	0%	1.0	18.9%	7.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.55	4.62	-0.1
2031	30	MLB MLE	PIT	75	0	79	333	62	26	11	0%	1.1	18.6%	7.9%	10.8%	3.4%	4.69	4.79	-0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	35	0	37	156	30	11	5	0%	1.1	18.9%	7.1%	11.7%	3.0%	4.42	4.43	+0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	PIT	47	0	49	207	39	15	6	0%	1.0	19.0%	7.3%	11.7%	3.1%	4.46	4.50	+0.0
2030	29	MLB CTX	PIT	50	0	53	224	42	17	7	0%	1.1	18.9%	7.6%	11.3%	3.2%	4.55	4.62	-0.0
2031	30	MLB CTX	PIT	51	0	54	228	42	18	8	0%	1.1	18.6%	7.9%	10.8%	3.4%	4.69	4.79	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		183	0	192	809	153	61	26	0%	1.0	18.9%	7.5%	11.3%	3.2%	4.54	4.22	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	160	64	27	0%	1.1	18.9%	7.5%	11.3%	3.2%	4.54	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		100	43	297	1265	197	81	45	43%	3.0	15.5%	6.4%	9.1%	3.6%	4.70	4.57	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	29	200	853	132	55	31	43%	3.0	15.5%	6.4%	9.1%	3.6%	4.70	4.57	-0.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 43 IPFIP 3.05 → 3.38 (+0.32)K% 21.8% → 18.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	21.79%	—	×0.860	18.74%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.47%	—	×0.900	4.02%
HR / BF /BF	2.23%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.46%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 3.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AAAltoona Curve · 10 IPFIP -0.33 → 0.32 (+0.65)K% 40.6% → 32.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.62%	—	×0.810	32.91%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	0.00%	—	×1.100	0.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP -0.33 → 0.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAltoona Curve · 14 IPFIP 4.75 → 5.60 (+0.85)K% 14.6% → 11.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	14.63%	—	×0.810	11.85%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.20%	—	×1.100	13.41%
HR / BF /BF	2.44%	÷0.891	×1.200	3.29%

Result: FIP 4.75 → 5.60, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 96 IPFIP 4.12 → 4.88 (+0.76)K% 20.3% → 15.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.29%	—	×0.770	15.63%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.65%	—	×1.150	5.34%
HR / BF /BF	3.91%	÷1.106	×1.250	4.42%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 4.12 → 4.88, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ABradenton Marauders · 75 IPFIP 2.88 → 3.74 (+0.86)K% 20.4% → 15.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.39%	—	×0.740	15.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.85%	—	×1.180	5.73%
HR / BF /BF	1.62%	÷0.971	×1.300	2.17%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 2.88 → 3.74, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 45 IPFIP 5.69 → 6.29 (+0.60)K% 17.3% → 13.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.35%	—	×0.770	13.36%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.65%	—	×1.150	8.80%
HR / BF /BF	5.61%	÷1.202	×1.250	5.84%

Result: FIP 5.69 → 6.29, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Derek Diamond (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	2.9%	—	4.51	18.9%	11.6%	296	+0.10	—	—	—
Willis Roberts R 2001 · 4.29 FIP	26	SW	4.29	16.0%	9.1%	2.5%	.296	4.18	14.9%	5.7%	126	-0.11	3.73	258	85
Roberto Gómez R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	27	SW	3.95	18.4%	8.9%	2.3%	.315	5.25	13.8%	4.9%	18	+1.30	3.95	115	83
Ryan Tapani R 2019 · 3.86 FIP	25	SW	3.86	19.0%	7.3%	2.6%	.331	5.56	20.8%	10.6%	47	+1.70	3.86	141	81
Ariel Peña R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	26	SW	3.74	21.3%	9.5%	2.3%	.300	4.92	19.9%	5.6%	92	+1.18	3.74	223	81
Brooks Hall R 2016 · 4.30 FIP	26	SW	4.30	14.2%	6.7%	2.8%	.284	3.45	13.6%	6.2%	55	-0.85	3.45	274	78
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	78
Aaron Northcraft R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	26	SW	4.19	16.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.309	3.32	24.1%	13.4%	34	-0.87	3.32	252	77
Felipe Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	25	SW	4.60	18.3%	9.2%	3.4%	.337	3.27	22.7%	12.7%	50	-1.33	3.27	339	76
Kurt Heyer R 2016 · 3.99 FIP	25	SW	3.99	14.1%	6.7%	2.2%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	178	76
Dakota Hawkins R 2024 · 4.31 FIP	24	SW	4.31	16.3%	8.9%	2.7%	.277	4.32	19.4%	10.4%	102	+0.01	3.50	186	76
Cory Lidle R 2000 · 4.32 FIP	28	SW	4.32	14.6%	6.1%	3.1%	.313	4.06	14.2%	8.7%	573	-0.26	3.48	1,318	76
Heath Holder R 2019 · 3.26 FIP	26	SW	3.26	21.9%	7.5%	1.9%	.263	5.51	19.8%	4.9%	85	+2.25	2.94	367	75
Jorge Reyes R 2015 · 4.58 FIP	27	SW	4.58	15.9%	8.5%	3.2%	.307	3.49	14.2%	6.2%	129	-1.09	3.39	227	75
Josh Roeder R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	26	SW	4.71	15.1%	8.7%	3.3%	.264	—	—	—	—	—	4.71	175	75
D.J. Houlton R 2005 · 4.85 FIP	25	SP-	4.85	15.6%	8.5%	3.6%	.297	4.74	18.6%	12.4%	28	-0.11	4.74	157	74
Kolton Mahoney R 2018 · 3.93 FIP	26	SW	3.93	13.8%	5.6%	2.3%	.328	3.56	19.4%	10.6%	109	-0.37	3.56	302	74
Alex Colomé R 2015 · 3.33 FIP	26	SW	3.33	19.3%	5.9%	2.0%	.309	2.95	25.5%	19.3%	191	-0.38	2.72	569	73
Sam Benschoter R 2024 · 3.61 FIP	26	SW	3.61	18.2%	10.0%	1.4%	.317	4.46	16.9%	10.2%	145	+0.85	3.61	441	73
Jeremy Hefner R 2012 · 3.56 FIP	26	SP-	3.56	15.2%	4.2%	2.2%	.316	4.33	17.8%	11.9%	131	+0.77	3.56	322	72
Nathan Wiles R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	26	SW	4.55	15.8%	6.0%	3.7%	.321	4.17	19.1%	12.6%	113	-0.38	4.17	399	72

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	103	18.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.49
Wally Whitehurst ('89-'96, 4 WAR*)	2.4	98	19.0%*	6.3%*	1.11*	4.50*
Bob Sadowski ('63-'66, 2 WAR*)	2.2	110	17.7%*	8.0%*	1.20*	4.73*
Chris Narveson ('16)	2.2	109	19.4%	8.6%	1.20	4.71
Alfredo Simon ('16)	3.9	111	15.7%	8.0%	1.22	4.56
Randy O'Neal ('84-'90, 1 WAR*)	2.2	73	17.4%*	7.8%*	1.21*	4.65*
Chris Rusin ('20)	2.3	78	16.8%	7.6%	1.06	4.65