Luis Perales — OGILVIE

Luis Perales P Rochester Red Wings

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031 peak 1.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION103 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.21

FIP4.21

K%26.3%

BB%13.6%

K-BB%12.7%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—50

STUF6055

CTRL4040

CMD3035

K†6565

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.2M	+$0.1M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2029	Arb-1	$5M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$8M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$11M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$10M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	1	1	2	8	3	1	0	100%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	4.50	1.52	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	1	1	2	8	3	1	0	100%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	4.50	1.60	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	36	146	50	20	1	85%	2.7	23.9%	16.6%	7.3%	1.0%	1.77	3.74	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	36	146	50	20	1	85%	2.7	34.2%	13.7%	20.5%	0.7%	1.77	2.34	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	90	393	115	50	10	100%	4.3	22.0%	14.8%	7.1%	3.4%	3.91	4.99	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	90	393	115	50	10	100%	4.3	22.0%	14.8%	7.1%	3.4%	3.91	4.99	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	90	393	115	50	10	100%	4.3	29.3%	12.7%	16.5%	2.5%	3.91	3.66	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	34	144	56	12	1	100%	3.7	30.5%	9.9%	20.6%	1.0%	2.94	2.34	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	34	144	56	12	1	100%	3.7	30.5%	9.9%	20.6%	1.0%	2.94	2.34	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	34	144	56	12	1	100%	3.7	38.9%	8.3%	30.6%	0.7%	2.94	1.23	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	2	9	4	3	0	33%	0.8	44.4%	33.3%	11.1%	0.0%	7.71	3.57	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	2	9	4	3	0	33%	0.8	44.4%	33.3%	11.1%	0.0%	7.71	3.57	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	2	9	4	3	0	33%	0.8	44.4%	33.3%	11.1%	0.0%	7.71	3.53	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			4	0	7	37	9	6	3	0%	1.8	24.3%	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	11.57	8.67	-0.3
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	29	19	103	449	106	61	13	66%	3.6	19.5%	12.0%	7.5%	2.7%	4.18	4.44	—
YTD	23	MLB MLE	Washington Nationals	29	19	103	449	106	61	13	66%	3.6	19.5%	12.0%	7.5%	2.7%	4.18	4.44	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	AAA RAW	WSH	25	19	96	412	97	55	10	76%	3.9	23.5%	13.3%	10.2%	2.4%	3.64	4.14	—
2026	23	MLB RAW	WSH	4	0	7	37	9	6	3	0%	1.8	24.3%	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	11.57	7.55	—
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	WSH	4	0	7	37	9	6	3	0%	1.8	24.3%	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	11.57	7.55	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	WSH	1	1	4	17	5	2	1	100%	4.1	26.3%	13.6%	12.7%	2.9%	4.21	4.21	+0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	WSH	1	1	4	17	4	2	0	100%	4.0	26.3%	13.6%	12.7%	2.9%	4.21	4.21	+0.0
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	WSH	—	—	107	466	111	63	14	—	—	23.7%	13.6%	10.1%	2.9%	4.18	4.43	+0.6
FULL	23	MLB A+C	WSH	—	—	11	47	111	63	14	—	—	236.4%	135.4%	100.9%	28.9%	40.56	16.15	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	120	505	137	64	16	100%	5.7	27.1%	12.7%	14.4%	3.2%	4.64	4.58	+0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	133	562	152	67	18	100%	5.8	27.1%	11.9%	15.2%	3.2%	4.52	4.46	+0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	140	592	160	69	19	100%	6.1	27.0%	11.6%	15.4%	3.2%	4.46	4.43	+0.8
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	142	600	161	70	19	100%	5.9	26.9%	11.6%	15.2%	3.2%	4.46	4.46	+0.7
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	24	24	142	600	160	71	20	100%	5.9	26.8%	11.8%	15.0%	3.3%	4.51	4.55	+0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	23	23	136	573	152	69	20	100%	5.9	26.5%	12.0%	14.5%	3.5%	4.61	4.68	+0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	21	21	128	539	141	66	20	100%	6.1	26.2%	12.3%	13.9%	3.7%	4.76	4.86	+0.1
2034	31	MLB MLE	WSH	20	20	119	502	129	64	20	100%	6.0	25.8%	12.7%	13.1%	3.9%	4.94	5.06	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	114	481	130	61	16	100%	5.7	27.1%	12.7%	14.4%	3.2%	4.64	4.58	+0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	127	536	145	64	17	100%	5.8	27.1%	11.9%	15.2%	3.2%	4.52	4.46	+0.7
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	133	562	152	65	18	100%	6.0	27.0%	11.6%	15.4%	3.2%	4.46	4.43	+0.7
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	135	570	153	66	18	100%	6.1	26.9%	11.6%	15.2%	3.2%	4.46	4.46	+0.7
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	135	570	152	67	19	100%	6.1	26.8%	11.8%	15.0%	3.3%	4.51	4.55	+0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	22	22	129	545	144	65	19	100%	5.9	26.5%	12.0%	14.5%	3.5%	4.61	4.68	+0.3
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	20	20	121	511	134	63	19	100%	6.0	26.2%	12.3%	13.9%	3.7%	4.76	4.86	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	WSH	19	19	113	477	123	60	19	100%	5.9	25.8%	12.7%	13.1%	3.9%	4.94	5.06	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		174	170	1018	4304	1147	520	148	98%	5.8	26.6%	12.1%	14.6%	3.4%	4.65	4.27	+7.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	33	200	846	225	102	29	98%	5.8	26.6%	12.1%	14.6%	3.4%	4.65	4.27	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		76	62	267	1149	260	155	28	82%	3.5	22.6%	13.5%	9.2%	2.5%	3.64	4.25	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		57	46	200	862	195	116	21	82%	3.5	22.6%	13.5%	9.2%	2.5%	3.64	4.25	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Perales (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.53	27.3%	13.7%	2.9%	—	4.49	27.0%	15.0%	393	-0.04	—	—	—
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	85
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	83
Trace Bright R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	22	SP-	4.26	26.3%	14.7%	2.8%	.297	4.83	19.2%	5.8%	313	+0.57	4.26	413	82
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.89	20.2%	9.1%	134	+0.20	2.11	220	82
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	82
Ryan Jennings R 2023 · 3.43 FIP	24	SP-	3.43	23.4%	11.9%	1.5%	.316	4.34	22.5%	9.8%	109	+0.91	3.43	142	80
Drew Rasmussen R 2019 · 3.64 FIP	24	SP-	3.64	24.6%	12.6%	1.9%	.312	3.21	22.7%	16.2%	237	-0.43	1.21	682	80
Sam Benschoter R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SP-	3.71	26.3%	9.2%	3.0%	.344	4.98	18.5%	8.4%	306	+1.27	3.62	441	79
Sean Mooney R 2021 · 3.36 FIP	23	SP	3.36	30.2%	15.3%	1.6%	.250	4.70	24.7%	11.2%	60	+1.34	3.36	102	79
Dean Deetz R 2017 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP-	4.32	22.2%	13.7%	2.5%	.298	4.73	29.1%	10.7%	68	+0.41	2.61	281	78
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	76
Zach Peek R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	22.8%	10.1%	2.1%	.339	3.51	17.5%	9.8%	45	-0.11	3.51	256	76
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	75
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	75
Austin Hansen R 2019 · 3.81 FIP	22	SP-	3.81	25.1%	15.0%	1.7%	.230	7.74	19.8%	-0.3%	26	+3.93	3.81	204	75
Chase Silseth R 2023 · 3.80 FIP	23	SP-	3.80	23.8%	10.8%	2.4%	.264	4.24	20.6%	8.1%	122	+0.44	3.30	332	75
David Festa R 2023 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	24.4%	11.2%	2.2%	.341	3.75	26.7%	18.6%	209	+0.06	3.67	405	75
Ryan Garcia R 2022 · 3.74 FIP	24	SP	3.74	23.2%	10.7%	2.3%	.239	5.55	19.5%	6.3%	278	+1.81	3.74	362	74
Emiliano Teodo R 2023 · 5.56 FIP	22	SP-	5.56	24.1%	14.2%	4.9%	.305	3.90	24.0%	8.4%	161	-1.66	3.17	337	74

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.6	124	26.7%	12.1%	1.31	4.60
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Mike Clevinger ('23)	3.9	113	24.8%	8.7%	1.07	3.45
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.1	104	25.1%	11.0%	1.67	4.47
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12