Luis Perales

P Rochester Red Wings

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 160 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	MIX2 levels	9	9	34	2.94	1.23	38.9%	8.3%	—	K 30.5% · BB 9.9% · FIP 2.34
2025	22	MIX2 levels	3	1	2	7.71	3.53	44.4%	33.3%	—	K 44.4% · BB 33.3% · FIP 3.57
2026	23	MIX2 levels	31	19	107	4.44	4.77	23.3%	14.4%	0.8	K 20.4% · BB 13.2% · FIP 4.91
2027PROJ	24	MLBWSH	11	11	62	4.96	5.29	22.5%	15.0%	0.1
2028PROJ80% MLB	25	MLBWSH	12	12	72	4.96	5.03	23.1%	13.5%	0.3
2029PROJ87% MLB	26	MLBWSH	13	13	78	4.92	4.94	23.4%	13.0%	0.4

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo90

K%47

xwOBA vs10

Form11.45 ERA (proj 4.96) · K 21.7% (proj 22.5%) · BB 21.7% (proj 15.0%) ▼▼ last 90d · 11 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.2 WAR median (P10 -0.4 / P90 12, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 74%

CompsRay Gaither (age 24) · Alex McFarlane (age 22) · Jake Lee (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 117

ERA4.96

FIP5.29

K%22.5%

BB%15.0%

K-BB%7.6%

Proj IP90

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 90 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9099.1

Whiff%

p9033.6%

p4721.7%

xwOBA vs

p100.394

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL BOS Red	1	1	2	8	3	1	0	100%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	4.50	1.52	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL BOS Red	1	1	2	8	3	1	0	100%	2.0	37.5%	12.5%	25.0%	0.0%	4.50	1.60	—
2022	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	11	36	146	50	20	1	85%	2.7	23.9%	16.6%	7.3%	1.0%	1.77	3.74	—
2022	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	11	36	146	50	20	1	85%	2.7	34.2%	13.7%	20.5%	0.7%	1.77	2.34	—
2023	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	21	21	90	393	115	50	10	100%	4.3	22.0%	14.8%	7.1%	3.4%	3.91	4.99	—
2023	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	21	21	90	393	115	50	10	100%	4.3	29.3%	12.7%	16.5%	2.5%	3.91	3.66	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	34	144	56	12	1	100%	3.7	30.5%	9.9%	20.6%	1.0%	2.94	2.34	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	9	34	144	56	12	1	100%	3.7	30.5%	9.9%	20.6%	1.0%	2.94	2.34	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	9	34	144	56	12	1	100%	3.7	38.9%	8.3%	30.6%	0.7%	2.94	1.23	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	2	9	4	3	0	33%	0.8	44.4%	33.3%	11.1%	0.0%	7.71	3.57	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	3	1	2	9	4	3	0	33%	0.8	44.4%	33.3%	11.1%	0.0%	7.71	3.57	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	3	1	2	9	4	3	0	33%	0.8	44.4%	33.3%	11.1%	0.0%	7.71	3.53	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	107	472	110	68	15	61%	3.5	20.4%	13.2%	7.2%	3.4%	4.44	4.91	+0.6
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	107	472	110	68	15	61%	3.5	20.4%	13.2%	7.2%	3.4%	4.44	4.91	+0.6
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	19	107	472	110	68	15	61%	3.5	23.3%	14.4%	8.9%	3.2%	4.44	4.77	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			6	0	11	60	13	13	5	0%	1.8	21.7%	21.7%	0.0%	8.3%	11.45	10.19	-0.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	WSH	11	11	62	262	59	39	9	100%	5.6	22.5%	15.0%	7.6%	3.3%	4.96	5.29	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	90	380	88	51	12	100%	6.0	23.1%	13.5%	9.6%	3.3%	4.96	5.03	+0.4
2029	26	MLB MLE	WSH	15	15	90	380	89	50	12	100%	6.0	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.92	4.94	+0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	78	330	77	42	11	100%	6.0	23.3%	12.8%	10.5%	3.3%	4.91	4.94	+0.4
2031	28	MLB MLE	WSH	13	13	76	320	74	41	11	100%	5.8	23.1%	12.9%	10.3%	3.4%	4.96	5.01	+0.3
2032	29	MLB MLE	WSH	12	12	70	294	66	38	10	100%	5.8	22.6%	13.1%	9.5%	3.5%	5.08	5.17	+0.2
2033	30	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	63	265	58	35	10	100%	6.3	21.9%	13.4%	8.5%	3.7%	5.26	5.37	+0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	72	304	70	41	10	100%	6.0	23.1%	13.5%	9.6%	3.3%	4.96	5.03	+0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	WSH	13	13	78	329	77	43	11	100%	6.0	23.4%	13.0%	10.4%	3.2%	4.92	4.94	+0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	70	296	69	38	10	100%	5.8	23.3%	12.8%	10.5%	3.3%	4.91	4.94	+0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	WSH	12	12	70	296	68	38	10	100%	5.8	23.1%	12.9%	10.3%	3.4%	4.96	5.01	+0.3
2032	29	MLB CTX	WSH	11	11	65	274	62	36	10	100%	5.9	22.6%	13.1%	9.5%	3.5%	5.08	5.17	+0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	WSH	10	10	59	249	54	33	9	100%	5.9	21.9%	13.4%	8.5%	3.7%	5.26	5.37	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		75	69	425	1808	414	242	64	92%	5.7	22.9%	13.4%	9.5%	3.5%	5.17	4.81	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	33	200	851	195	114	30	92%	5.6	22.9%	13.4%	9.5%	3.5%	5.17	4.81	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		78	62	271	1172	269	163	32	79%	3.5	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	2.8%	3.76	4.44	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		58	46	200	866	199	121	24	79%	3.5	22.9%	13.9%	9.0%	2.8%	3.76	4.44	+0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAARochester Red Wings · 96 IPFIP 4.14 → 4.38 (+0.24)K% 23.5% → 20.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.54%	—	×0.860	20.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.35%	—	×0.900	12.01%
HR / BF /BF	2.43%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.67%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.14 → 4.38, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Greenville Drive · 26 IPFIP 1.32 → 2.34 (+1.03)K% 39.7% → 30.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	39.66%	—	×0.770	30.53%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.62%	—	×1.150	9.91%
HR / BF /BF	0.86%	÷1.043	×1.250	1.03%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 109).

Result: FIP 1.32 → 2.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 7 IPFIP 0.99 → 1.65 (+0.66)K% 35.7% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.71%	—	×0.810	28.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.14%	—	×1.100	7.86%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.018	×1.200	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 104).

Result: FIP 0.99 → 1.65, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 ASalem Red Sox · 53 IPFIP 2.50 → 3.62 (+1.12)K% 31.4% → 23.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.42%	—	×0.740	23.25%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.39%	—	×1.180	14.62%
HR / BF /BF	0.88%	÷0.999	×1.300	1.15%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 2.50 → 3.62, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 A+Greenville Drive · 36 IPFIP 5.17 → 6.84 (+1.66)K% 26.3% → 20.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.35%	—	×0.770	20.29%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.17%	—	×1.150	15.15%
HR / BF /BF	4.79%	÷0.931	×1.250	6.43%

Result: FIP 5.17 → 6.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKFCL Red Sox · 25 IPFIP 1.26 → 2.54 (+1.28)K% 36.2% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	36.17%	—	×0.680	24.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.57%	—	×1.250	11.97%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.943	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 89).

Result: FIP 1.26 → 2.54, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ASalem Red Sox · 11 IPFIP 4.24 → 5.91 (+1.67)K% 30.8% → 22.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.740	22.77%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	21.15%	—	×1.180	24.96%
HR / BF /BF	1.92%	÷0.873	×1.300	2.86%

Result: FIP 4.24 → 5.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luis Perales (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.3%	—	4.97	23.3%	10.1%	258	-0.32	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.34	18.3%	5.8%	123	-0.51	3.84	164	74
Alex McFarlane R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP	4.91	21.9%	19.2%	2.2%	.344	3.91	21.3%	8.0%	128	-1.00	3.47	179	72
Jake Lee R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	24	SP-	4.65	25.7%	12.4%	3.9%	.296	3.52	18.7%	10.3%	40	-1.13	2.78	181	71
Rafael Montero R 2014 · 5.04 FIP	23	SP-	5.04	21.6%	11.9%	4.1%	.298	4.32	19.3%	8.2%	296	-0.72	2.43	714	71
Angel Guzman R 2006 · 4.73 FIP	24	SP-	4.73	22.1%	13.2%	3.3%	.353	3.88	19.6%	12.0%	91	-0.85	3.13	147	71
Alfredo Figaro R 2009 · 4.98 FIP	25	SP-	4.98	19.3%	12.0%	3.6%	.370	4.42	7.2%	-1.5%	15	-0.56	3.75	143	70
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.51	17.7%	5.4%	170	-0.51	3.97	187	69
Daniel Corcino R 2014 · 4.37 FIP	23	SP-	4.37	18.8%	12.5%	2.3%	.208	4.14	19.6%	10.0%	76	-0.23	3.84	318	69
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	69
Sean Mooney R 2022 · 4.70 FIP	24	SP-	4.70	24.7%	13.5%	3.6%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	102	68
Michael Knorr R 2024 · 5.56 FIP	24	SP-	5.56	21.6%	12.5%	4.9%	.314	4.95	22.3%	9.7%	83	-0.61	4.30	181	68
Khristian Curtis R 2024 · 5.48 FIP	22	SP	5.48	18.8%	14.4%	3.9%	.275	4.62	20.6%	8.4%	216	-0.86	4.60	291	67
Tanner Hall R 2024 · 4.67 FIP	22	SP-	4.67	18.8%	11.2%	3.2%	.295	5.33	10.1%	-4.6%	72	+0.66	4.67	137	67
Carson Rudd R 2023 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	21.0%	13.0%	4.7%	.274	4.61	17.5%	-0.1%	110	-0.92	3.39	242	66
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	66
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	66
Rubén Menes R 2024 · 5.62 FIP	22	SP-	5.62	15.8%	15.2%	3.5%	.235	4.77	15.6%	2.4%	81	-0.85	3.39	112	65
Conor Grammes R 2021 · 5.74 FIP	24	SP	5.74	20.4%	11.4%	5.3%	.417	4.35	22.9%	4.9%	124	-1.39	4.11	171	65
Forrest Whitley R 2022 · 4.34 FIP	24	SP-	4.34	20.1%	16.6%	1.5%	.316	4.06	24.5%	14.7%	136	-0.28	2.43	354	65
Shawn Hill R 2004 · 4.26 FIP	23	SP	4.26	19.6%	13.7%	2.0%	.450	3.70	14.5%	8.6%	134	-0.56	2.96	239	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	81	22.9%	13.6%	1.35	5.12
Paul Spoljaric ('00)	1.4	69	22.1%	12.9%	1.33	5.52
Britt Reames ('06)	1.1	73	20.7%	12.0%	1.32	5.28
Ed Glynn ('75-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.3	53	23.5%*	12.9%*	1.22*	4.69*
Frank LaCorte ('75-'84, -4 WAR*)	2.5	61	25.0%*	12.0%*	1.43*	5.83*
Doug Capilla ('76-'81, 1 WAR*)	1.5	73	20.1%*	13.5%*	0.98*	4.78*
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88