Luis Perales
P
Rochester Red Wings
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2032
peak 0.4 · 2029
ERA4.32
FIP4.32
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%23.9%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%14.1%
IP36
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
K†5560
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 4.50 | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Salem Red Sox | 13 | 11 | 36 | 146 | 50 | 20 | 1 | 23.9% | 16.6% | 1.0% | 1.77 | 3.72 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 21 | 21 | 90 | 393 | 115 | 50 | 10 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 3.3% | 3.91 | 4.96 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 9 | 9 | 34 | 144 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 30.5% | 9.9% | 1.0% | 2.94 | 2.35 | +1.0 |
| 2025 | 22 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 7.71 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 3 | 3 | 7 | 36 | 5 | 6 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.68 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 14 | — | 14 | 60 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 22 | 96 | 19 | 12 | 2 | 20.2% | 12.4% | 1.8% | 4.10 | 2.86 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 24.4% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.25 | 4.20 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 24.7% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.18 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 39 | 14 | 5 | 24.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.14 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | WSH | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 24.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | WSH | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 37 | 14 | 5 | 24.7% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.18 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | WSH | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 36 | 13 | 4 | 24.5% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.23 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | WSH | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 24.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.34 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | WSH | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 32 | 13 | 4 | 23.9% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.38 | 4.43 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | WSH | 30 | — | 30 | 129 | 30 | 12 | 4 | 23.6% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | WSH | 29 | — | 29 | 122 | 29 | 12 | 4 | 23.3% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.57 | 4.64 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 50 | 46 | 171 | 736 | 177 | 107 | 16 | 24.1% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 3.32 | 4.10 | +2.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 54 | 200 | 862 | 207 | 125 | 19 | 24.1% | 14.5% | 2.2% | 3.32 | 4.10 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Perales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.32 | 23.9% | 9.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.15 | 24.7% | 15.6% | 111 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Jacob Dorris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 26.9% | 12.4% | 3.1% | .295 | 4.58 | 19.2% | 8.8% | 88 | +0.48 | 4.10 | 130 | 90 |
| Justin Yeager R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.59 | 26.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .281 | 3.93 | 25.4% | 12.6% | 103 | +0.34 | 3.29 | 201 | 89 |
| Peyton Williams R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 88 |
| Nic Enright R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.63 | 24.6% | 12.2% | 1.9% | .263 | 3.01 | 29.6% | 23.5% | 124 | -0.62 | 0.50 | 249 | 88 |
| Ricardo Velez R 2027 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 22.4% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .261 | 3.88 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 114 | -0.55 | 3.82 | 142 | 88 |
| Zac Leigh R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.72 | 28.5% | 12.3% | 2.7% | .270 | 4.50 | 21.7% | 5.4% | 130 | +0.78 | 3.72 | 164 | 88 |
| Donovan Benoit R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.58 | 25.3% | 12.4% | 1.9% | .284 | 4.43 | 17.6% | 4.3% | 138 | +0.85 | 3.58 | 183 | 87 |
| Tyler Mitzel R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.31 | 24.1% | 12.0% | 3.2% | .245 | 4.11 | 22.4% | 14.3% | 96 | -0.20 | 4.01 | 142 | 87 |
| Taylor Floyd R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.48 | 27.7% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .291 | 4.31 | 19.4% | 6.5% | 183 | +0.83 | 3.48 | 290 | 87 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.95 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.95 | 22.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .236 | 3.95 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 96 | -0.00 | 3.37 | 134 | 86 |
| Heath Holder R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 86 |
| Austin Smith R 2026 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 86 |
| Stephen Jones R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.60 | 23.8% | 11.0% | 2.0% | .304 | 4.61 | 21.9% | 9.2% | 142 | +1.01 | 3.60 | 246 | 86 |
| Michael Gomez R 2025 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 86 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 24 | SU | 3.48 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.6% | .316 | 4.40 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +0.92 | 3.48 | 142 | 85 |
| Cre Finfrock R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.69 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 3.7% | .278 | 6.32 | 16.7% | -8.5% | 36 | +1.63 | 4.27 | 103 | 85 |
| Patrick Ruotolo R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.20 | 27.5% | 10.6% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.63 | 28.9% | 25.8% | 37 | -0.57 | 3.02 | 190 | 85 |
| Kyle Schepel R 2027 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 23.1% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .233 | 3.64 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 120 | -0.98 | 3.54 | 156 | 85 |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.06 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.06 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.2% | .260 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.30 | 4.01 | 283 | 85 |
| Cole Gordon R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.10 | 22.0% | 12.7% | 2.3% | .243 | 5.19 | 20.9% | 9.5% | 83 | +1.09 | 4.10 | 112 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2027
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2032
First FA Year 2033
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2027 | |||
| 2027 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.6M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.4M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $1M | -$0.1M |
| Totals | $6M | $8M | +$3M | ||