Luis Perales
P
Rochester Red Wings
Age 23
RHP
6'0" / 160 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 0.4 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION69 act + 35 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 102
ERA4.46
FIP4.46
K%27.4%
BB%13.2%
K-BB%14.2%
ROS IP35
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 37.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 1.52 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL BOS Red | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.0 | 37.5% | 12.5% | 25.0% | 0.0% | 4.50 | 1.60 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 11 | 36 | 146 | 50 | 20 | 1 | 85% | 2.7 | 23.9% | 16.6% | 7.3% | 1.2% | 1.77 | 3.83 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 11 | 36 | 146 | 50 | 20 | 1 | 85% | 2.7 | 34.2% | 13.7% | 20.5% | 0.7% | 1.77 | 2.34 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 90 | 393 | 115 | 50 | 10 | 100% | 4.3 | 22.0% | 14.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 3.91 | 5.11 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 21 | 21 | 90 | 393 | 115 | 50 | 10 | 100% | 4.3 | 29.3% | 12.7% | 16.5% | 2.5% | 3.91 | 3.66 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 34 | 144 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 30.5% | 9.9% | 20.6% | 1.0% | 2.94 | 2.32 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 9 | 34 | 144 | 56 | 12 | 1 | 100% | 3.7 | 38.9% | 8.3% | 30.6% | 0.7% | 2.94 | 1.23 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 0.8 | 44.4% | 33.3% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 3.57 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 33% | 0.8 | 44.4% | 33.3% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 7.71 | 3.53 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 17 | 15 | 69 | 292 | 59 | 38 | 8 | 88% | 4.1 | 17.8% | 13.7% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.78 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 7 | 7 | 35 | 149 | 41 | 20 | 4 | 100% | 5.0 | 27.4% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | WSH | 3 | 3 | 14 | 59 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 4.7 | 27.4% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 104 | 441 | 100 | 58 | 12 | — | — | 22.6% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 2.8% | 4.01 | 4.81 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | WSH | — | — | 14 | 59 | 16 | 8 | 2 | — | — | 27.4% | 13.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | 4.46 | 4.08 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 10 | 10 | 54 | 227 | 62 | 28 | 7 | 100% | 5.4 | 27.5% | 12.2% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.31 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 63 | 27 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 54 | 230 | 63 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.6% | 11.5% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 9 | 9 | 54 | 226 | 62 | 26 | 7 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.5% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | WSH | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 41 | 18 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.5% | 12.2% | 15.3% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | WSH | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 50 | 21 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.23 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 47 | 198 | 55 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 27.6% | 11.5% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | WSH | 8 | 8 | 48 | 203 | 56 | 23 | 6 | 100% | 6.0 | 27.5% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 3.0% | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 32 | 32 | 186 | 786 | 216 | 93 | 23 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.5% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 3.88 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 232 | 100 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 27.5% | 11.8% | 15.7% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 3.88 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 64 | 58 | 232 | 992 | 224 | 141 | 26 | 91% | 3.6 | 22.6% | 14.2% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 3.45 | 4.44 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 55 | 50 | 200 | 854 | 193 | 121 | 23 | 91% | 3.6 | 22.6% | 14.2% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 3.45 | 4.44 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Luis Perales (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.46 | 27.4% | 13.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.25 | 27.6% | 15.8% | 162 | -0.21 | — | — | — |
| River Ryan R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.58 | 26.1% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .321 | 3.86 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 134 | +0.28 | 2.13 | 218 | 84 |
| Sean Mooney R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.45 | 30.2% | 15.3% | 1.8% | .250 | 4.82 | 24.7% | 11.2% | 60 | +1.37 | 3.45 | 102 | 84 |
| Ryan Garcia R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.87 | 23.2% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .239 | 5.71 | 20.0% | 6.1% | 278 | +1.84 | 3.87 | 325 | 82 |
| Ryan Jennings R 2027 · 3.29 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.29 | 23.4% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .316 | 4.60 | 23.0% | 9.5% | 109 | +1.31 | 3.29 | 142 | 80 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 80 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 78 |
| Drew Rasmussen R 2027 · 3.62 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.62 | 24.6% | 12.6% | 1.8% | .312 | 3.26 | 22.7% | 16.2% | 237 | -0.36 | 1.21 | 621 | 78 |
| TJ Shook R 2026 · 4.82 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.82 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 3.3% | .311 | 5.12 | 20.7% | 10.3% | 296 | +0.30 | 3.36 | 432 | 77 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 77 |
| James Proctor R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.02 | 22.0% | 15.2% | 1.6% | .277 | 4.35 | 14.0% | 1.5% | 48 | +0.33 | 4.02 | 109 | 76 |
| Josh Grosz R 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.00 | 28.0% | 14.1% | 2.7% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.00 | 274 | 76 |
| Trent Palmer R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.85 | 22.0% | 10.4% | 4.2% | .284 | 4.83 | 12.8% | -9.4% | 22 | -0.02 | 3.51 | 140 | 76 |
| Cody Laweryson R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.23 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 3.5% | .329 | 3.55 | 21.5% | 12.4% | 178 | -0.68 | 2.49 | 298 | 75 |
| Jacob Odle R 2025 · 4.96 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.96 | 25.2% | 17.0% | 3.3% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.44 | 104 | 75 |
| David Festa R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.55 | 24.6% | 11.6% | 1.9% | .341 | 3.71 | 27.5% | 18.8% | 209 | +0.16 | 3.55 | 405 | 75 |
| Chad Patrick R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 23 | SP | 3.92 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .315 | 4.36 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.44 | 3.76 | 537 | 75 |
| Winyer Chourio R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.50 | 23.5% | 16.3% | 2.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.30 | 156 | 75 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 74 |
| CJ Van Eyk R 2025 · 5.01 FIP | 22 | SP | 5.01 | 21.8% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .302 | 4.47 | 15.2% | 5.3% | 127 | -0.54 | 3.95 | 411 | 74 |
| Keyner Martinez R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.80 | 27.5% | 16.5% | 3.5% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 162 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 50 | 27.5% | 11.9% | 1.14 | 4.31 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Brad Boxberger ('23) | 8 | 43 | 27.1% | 11.7% | 1.17 | 3.86 |
| Wade Davis ('21) | 6 | 53 | 27.3% | 10.4% | 0.90 | 3.77 |