Forrest Whitley — OGILVIE

Forrest Whitley P Durham Bulls

+0.5 WAR

Age 28 RHP 6'7" / 208 lbs AAA Svc 1.0 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 0.4 · 2026

ERA7.98

FIP4.29

xFIP6.08

SIERA5.01

K%24.5%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%14.2%

IP56

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.4peak

2026

K†6060

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p1019.5%

p2318.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.412

CH (1%)

SI (20%)

CU (21%)

SL-0.9 (8%)

FB-3.9 (51%)

CT-4.1 (27%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	Greeneville Astros	8	6	19	81	26	6	0	21.8%	9.3%	0.0%	4.82	2.43	+0.5
2017	19	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	23	18	92	380	143	34	5	28.7%	10.4%	1.6%	2.83	2.84	+2.5
2018	20	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	8	8	26	108	34	11	2	25.5%	11.2%	2.1%	3.76	3.51	+0.4
2019	21	AAA	Round Rock Express	18	15	60	278	86	44	11	24.6%	16.5%	5.7%	7.99	6.25	-0.9
2022	24	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	13	11	40	186	45	27	2	20.1%	16.6%	1.5%	6.53	4.35	+0.3
2023	25	AAA	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	8	6	30	135	32	17	6	20.9%	13.2%	5.3%	5.70	5.91	-0.3
2024	26	MLB	Houston Astros	36	1	37	166	51	20	5	28.1%	11.2%	3.5%	1.93	4.07	+0.4
2025	27	MLB	Tampa Bay Rays	29	12	73	308	87	31	8	25.3%	10.4%	2.2%	4.56	3.50	+1.3
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	TB	56	—	56	237	58	24	7	24.5%	10.3%	2.9%	7.98	4.29	+0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	TB	55	—	55	232	55	24	7	23.9%	10.3%	2.9%	5.82	4.37	+0.4
2028	30	MLB	TB	53	—	53	225	53	23	7	23.3%	10.3%	3.0%	5.00	4.46	+0.3
2029	31	MLB	TB	51	—	51	217	49	22	7	22.8%	10.4%	3.1%	4.73	4.56	+0.2
2030	32	MLB	TB	49	—	49	208	46	22	7	22.1%	10.5%	3.1%	4.69	4.66	+0.2
2031	33	MLB	TB	47	—	47	199	43	21	6	21.5%	10.7%	3.2%	4.75	4.79	+0.1
2032	34	MLB	TB	45	—	45	189	39	20	6	20.8%	10.9%	3.3%	4.86	4.93	+0.0
2033	35	MLB	TB	42	—	42	178	36	20	6	20.1%	11.1%	3.4%	4.99	5.08	-0.1
2034	36	MLB	TB	39	—	39	166	32	19	6	19.3%	11.3%	3.6%	5.14	5.25	-0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			143	77	377	1642	413	204	47	25.1%	12.5%	2.8%	4.67	4.11	+5.1
/ 200 IP	—			76	41	200	870	219	108	25	25.1%	12.5%	2.8%	4.67	4.11	+2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Forrest Whitley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	24.5%	10.3%	2.9%	—	4.46	23.4%	13.1%	160	+0.17	—	—	—
Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP	28	SW	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.07	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.61	2.31	403	82
Trevor May R 2026 · 3.59 FIP	28	SW	3.59	26.1%	9.8%	2.6%	.291	3.53	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.06	3.04	432	80
Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP	28	SU	3.76	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.34	2.42	125	80
Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP	31	SW	3.73	24.5%	8.2%	3.0%	.325	3.80	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.07	3.65	137	80
Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.30 FIP	28	SW	3.30	24.0%	9.5%	1.8%	.271	2.97	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.33	1.54	521	79
Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP	28	SW	3.48	24.5%	7.9%	2.6%	.302	3.74	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.26	1.69	468	79
José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.50 FIP	27	SU	4.50	26.1%	11.7%	3.9%	.367	3.92	24.5%	13.3%	75	-0.58	2.26	279	78
Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP	28	SW	3.43	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.95	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.52	3.08	205	78
Blake Wood R 2027 · 2.91 FIP	29	SW	2.91	24.5%	10.5%	1.0%	.325	3.57	24.9%	14.9%	151	+0.66	2.91	210	78
Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.54 FIP	28	SW	3.54	25.1%	9.1%	2.6%	.277	3.88	21.1%	12.7%	203	+0.34	2.86	596	78
Andrew Robinson R 2026 · 3.25 FIP	28	SW	3.25	22.2%	7.9%	1.9%	.247	4.33	23.4%	14.6%	39	+1.08	3.25	160	77
Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.57	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.10	2.59	137	76
Liam Hendriks R 2026 · 3.09 FIP	28	SW	3.09	28.6%	8.4%	2.4%	.303	1.71	35.2%	30.1%	160	-1.38	0.60	495	76
Zach McAllister R 2026 · 3.53 FIP	28	SW	3.53	23.2%	9.0%	2.3%	.309	4.28	24.0%	17.4%	119	+0.75	2.83	363	76
Chris Hatcher R 2028 · 2.93 FIP	30	SU	2.93	27.1%	6.6%	2.3%	.292	4.62	22.6%	14.0%	137	+1.69	2.93	176	76
Trevin Michael R 2025 · 3.82 FIP	27	SW	3.82	23.0%	9.1%	2.8%	.230	—	—	—	—	—	2.68	149	76
Jaye Chapman R 2026 · 3.34 FIP	28	SW	3.34	21.6%	8.5%	1.8%	.276	4.07	20.3%	11.3%	85	+0.73	3.25	150	76
Michael Mariot R 2026 · 3.52 FIP	28	SW	3.52	22.6%	9.0%	2.2%	.327	4.82	20.9%	11.8%	74	+1.30	2.39	676	76
Jason Stoffel R 2025 · 3.51 FIP	27	SW	3.51	27.2%	8.0%	3.1%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	103	76
Tom Wilhelmsen R 2029 · 3.11 FIP	31	SW	3.11	22.5%	9.7%	1.2%	.298	5.81	13.8%	4.1%	86	+2.70	3.11	148	75

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2028	Arb-1	$1M	+0.3	$1M	+$0.1M
2029	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M