Forrest Whitley

P Durham Bulls

Age 29 RHP 6'7" / 208 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	25	AAAHOU	8	6	30	5.70	5.27	23.7%	12.6%	—	K 20.4% · BB 11.3% · FIP 5.81
2024	26	MIX3 levels	36	1	37	1.93	3.72	30.7%	12.0%	0.4	K 27.4% · BB 9.6% · FIP 3.89
2025	27	MIX2 levels	29	12	73	4.56	3.42	28.2%	10.1%	1.0	K 24.8% · BB 9.3% · FIP 3.41
2026	28	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	29	MLBTB	1	1	7	4.12	4.02	25.1%	8.6%	0.1
2028PROJ37% MLB	30	MLBTB	3	3	20	4.22	4.26	24.3%	8.9%	0.3
2029PROJ55% MLB	31	MLBTB	4	4	26	4.39	4.49	23.4%	9.3%	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

FB Velo75

K%23

xwOBA vs10

CompsJose Contreras (age 31) · Tiago Da Silva (age 30) · Fabio Castillo (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110101vR 93

ERA4.12

FIP4.02

K%25.1%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%16.5%

Proj IP66

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 66 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p7596.3

Whiff%

p1019.5%

p2318.2%

xwOBA vs

p100.412

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2016	18	ROK MLE	Greeneville Astros	8	6	19	81	26	6	0	75%	2.3	21.8%	9.3%	12.6%	0.0%	4.82	2.43	—
2016	18	ROK RAW	Greeneville Astros	8	6	19	81	26	6	0	75%	2.3	32.1%	7.4%	24.7%	0.0%	4.82	1.28	—
2017	19	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	18	92	380	143	34	5	78%	4.0	28.7%	10.4%	18.3%	1.6%	2.83	2.84	—
2017	19	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	18	92	380	143	34	5	78%	4.0	37.6%	8.9%	28.7%	1.3%	2.83	1.81	—
2018	20	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	8	8	26	108	34	11	2	100%	3.3	25.5%	11.2%	14.3%	2.1%	3.76	3.52	—
2018	20	AA RAW	Corpus Christi Hooks	8	8	26	108	34	11	2	100%	3.3	31.5%	10.2%	21.3%	1.9%	3.76	2.76	—
2019	21	MIX MLE	4 levels	18	15	60	278	86	44	11	83%	3.3	24.6%	16.5%	8.1%	5.7%	7.99	6.25	—
2019	21	MIX RAW	4 levels	18	15	60	278	86	44	11	83%	3.3	30.9%	15.8%	15.1%	4.0%	7.99	4.83	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	11	40	186	45	27	2	85%	3.1	20.1%	16.6%	3.4%	1.5%	6.53	4.34	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	11	40	186	45	27	2	85%	3.1	24.2%	14.5%	9.7%	1.1%	6.53	3.52	—
2023	25	AAA MLE	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	8	6	30	135	32	17	6	75%	3.8	20.4%	11.3%	9.1%	5.5%	5.70	5.81	—
2023	25	AAA RAW	Sugar Land Space Cowboys	8	6	30	135	32	17	6	75%	3.8	23.7%	12.6%	11.1%	4.4%	5.70	5.27	—
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	1	37	166	51	20	5	3%	1.0	27.4%	9.6%	17.9%	3.5%	1.93	3.89	+0.3
2024	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	36	1	37	166	51	20	5	3%	1.0	27.4%	9.6%	17.9%	3.5%	1.93	3.89	+0.3
2024	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	36	1	37	166	51	20	5	3%	1.0	30.7%	12.0%	18.7%	3.0%	1.93	3.72	+0.4
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	12	73	308	87	31	8	41%	2.5	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	2.2%	4.56	3.41	+1.0
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	12	73	308	87	31	8	41%	2.5	24.8%	9.3%	15.5%	2.2%	4.56	3.41	+1.0
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	12	73	308	87	31	8	41%	2.5	28.2%	10.1%	18.2%	2.6%	4.56	3.42	+1.0
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			13	0	15	86	17	11	3	0%	1.2	19.8%	12.8%	7.0%	3.5%	10.57	5.58	-0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	TB	1	1	7	30	7	3	1	100%	7.0	25.1%	8.6%	16.5%	2.9%	4.12	4.02	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	TB	9	9	55	233	57	21	7	100%	6.1	24.3%	8.9%	15.3%	3.1%	4.22	4.26	+0.7
2029	31	MLB MLE	TB	8	8	47	198	46	18	7	100%	5.9	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.3%	4.39	4.49	+0.5
2028	30	MLB CTX	TB	3	3	20	84	20	8	3	100%	6.7	24.3%	8.9%	15.3%	3.1%	4.22	4.26	+0.3
2029	31	MLB CTX	TB	4	4	26	110	26	10	4	100%	6.5	23.4%	9.3%	14.1%	3.3%	4.39	4.49	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	8	61	281	63	29	9	38%	2.9	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.3%	5.87	4.30	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		67	25	200	914	205	94	29	37%	3.0	22.6%	10.3%	12.3%	3.3%	5.87	4.30	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		143	77	377	1642	410	196	47	54%	2.6	25.0%	11.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.07	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		76	41	200	870	217	104	25	54%	2.6	25.0%	11.9%	13.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.07	+2.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAADurham Bulls · 61 IPFIP 2.82 → 2.84 (+0.02)K% 31.0% → 26.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.99%	—	×0.860	26.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.50%	—	×0.900	8.55%
HR / BF /BF	2.07%	÷1.380	×1.100	1.65%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 176).

Result: FIP 2.82 → 2.84, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 33 IPFIP 3.31 → 3.89 (+0.58)K% 31.9% → 27.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	31.91%	—	×0.860	27.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.64%	—	×0.900	9.57%
HR / BF /BF	2.84%	÷0.903	×1.100	3.45%

Result: FIP 3.31 → 3.89, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 30 IPFIP 5.13 → 5.81 (+0.68)K% 23.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.70%	—	×0.860	20.39%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.59%	—	×0.900	11.33%
HR / BF /BF	4.44%	÷0.896	×1.100	5.46%

Result: FIP 5.13 → 5.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 33 IPFIP 3.87 → 4.34 (+0.47)K% 22.8% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.78%	—	×0.880	20.05%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	15.82%	—	×1.050	16.61%
HR / BF /BF	1.27%	÷0.917	×1.100	1.52%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 83).

Result: FIP 3.87 → 4.34, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAARound Rock Express · 24 IPFIP 6.79 → 7.78 (+0.99)K% 24.4% → 21.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.37%	—	×0.880	21.45%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.61%	—	×1.050	13.24%
HR / BF /BF	7.56%	÷0.948	×1.100	8.78%

Result: FIP 6.79 → 7.78, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 23 IPFIP 3.55 → 4.48 (+0.93)K% 35.0% → 28.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.95%	—	×0.810	28.31%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	18.45%	—	×1.100	20.29%
HR / BF /BF	1.94%	÷1.067	×1.200	2.18%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 113).

Result: FIP 3.55 → 4.48, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 A+Fayetteville Woodpeckers · 8 IPFIP 0.51 → 1.26 (+0.75)K% 35.5% → 27.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	35.48%	—	×0.770	27.32%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.23%	—	×1.150	3.71%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.969	×1.250	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 94).

Result: FIP 0.51 → 1.26, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 ROKGCL Astros · 4 IPFIP 4.28 → 6.50 (+2.22)K% 40.0% → 27.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	40.00%	—	×0.680	27.20%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	36.00%	—	×1.250	45.00%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷1.000	×1.400	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher ROK level factors — K ×0.68, BB ×1.25, HR ×1.40. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.28 → 6.50, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Forrest Whitley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.02	25.1%	8.6%	2.9%	—	4.37	23.9%	14.8%	102	+0.35	—	—	—
Jose Contreras R 2003 · 3.03 FIP	31	SP-	3.03	24.6%	9.9%	1.4%	.255	4.30	17.9%	9.5%	571	+1.27	2.43	1,279	74
Tiago Da Silva R 2015 · 3.10 FIP	30	SW	3.10	19.6%	4.5%	2.0%	.278	2.38	21.4%	18.5%	98	-0.72	2.21	287	70
Fabio Castillo R 2017 · 3.98 FIP	28	SP-	3.98	20.9%	8.8%	2.8%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	195	69
Junior Guerra R 2015 · 3.18 FIP	30	SW	3.18	26.8%	10.3%	1.9%	.269	4.15	20.8%	10.9%	390	+0.97	3.18	646	69
Phil Klein R 2016 · 3.10 FIP	27	SW	3.10	24.5%	6.6%	2.2%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	197	67
Mike Wright Jr. R 2019 · 3.76 FIP	29	SW	3.76	19.9%	7.2%	2.6%	.347	4.19	17.6%	7.3%	169	+0.43	3.76	725	64
Dinelson Lamet R 2021 · 3.67 FIP	29	SW	3.67	27.3%	10.5%	2.8%	.339	4.61	20.7%	8.6%	176	+0.94	2.11	778	64
Mayckol Guaipe R 2019 · 4.18 FIP	28	SW	4.18	26.0%	7.6%	4.2%	.432	—	—	—	—	—	1.88	136	63
Kolton Mahoney R 2019 · 3.56 FIP	27	SW	3.56	19.4%	8.8%	1.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	302	63
Jose Pina R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	29	SW	4.90	16.9%	9.2%	3.8%	.231	3.66	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.24	3.63	424	62
Ramon Delgado R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	29	SW	4.60	13.8%	5.9%	3.5%	.332	4.31	11.2%	7.2%	74	-0.29	4.31	135	61
Anthony Bass R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	29	SP-	3.42	23.6%	9.1%	2.1%	.356	3.43	20.7%	14.2%	141	+0.01	2.93	647	61
Aldo Montes R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	29	SW	4.69	18.2%	10.6%	3.3%	.336	—	—	—	—	—	4.69	210	61
Mitch Neunborn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP	27	SP-	4.25	19.0%	12.0%	2.2%	.285	5.80	16.4%	6.5%	114	+1.55	3.65	248	61
Wilmer Font R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	29	SW	4.43	26.7%	7.6%	4.8%	.281	4.24	17.6%	7.0%	16	-0.19	2.76	345	60
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	60
Seth Simmons R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	28	SW	4.27	18.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.262	6.20	13.3%	2.4%	54	+1.93	3.07	251	60
Elian Leyva R 2018 · 3.10 FIP	29	SU	3.10	17.7%	7.3%	1.0%	.308	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	71	+1.20	3.10	158	60
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	60
Carlos Frías R 2019 · 4.42 FIP	29	SP-	4.42	16.9%	11.1%	2.4%	.369	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	236	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	61	23.9%	9.3%	1.20	4.76
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Oliver Drake ('20)	1.0	68	26.2%	9.5%	1.06	4.27
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Bill Scherrer ('82-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.6	62	20.7%*	10.2%*	1.19*	4.44*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*