Melvin Robles — OGILVIE

Melvin Robles P DSL Royals Fortuna

Age 18 LHP 5'11" / 150 lbs ROK peak 0.5 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 98107vR 115

ERA4.29

FIP4.29

K%21.4%

BB%8.1%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	5	27	115	29	7	0	45%	2.5	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	0.0%	4.33	2.62	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	5	27	115	29	7	0	45%	2.5	17.1%	7.6%	9.5%	0.0%	4.33	2.62	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	5	27	115	29	7	0	45%	2.5	25.2%	6.1%	19.1%	0.0%	4.33	1.73	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	11	36	154	37	14	0	100%	3.2	16.3%	11.4%	5.0%	0.0%	3.53	3.16	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	11	36	154	37	14	0	100%	3.2	16.3%	11.4%	5.0%	0.0%	3.53	3.16	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	11	11	36	154	37	14	0	100%	3.2	24.0%	9.1%	14.9%	0.0%	3.53	2.22	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	7	7	37	155	34	12	4	100%	5.2	22.0%	8.0%	14.1%	2.9%	4.23	4.20	+0.3
2027	19	MLB CTX	—	3	3	18	76	17	6	2	100%	6.0	22.0%	8.0%	14.1%	2.9%	4.23	4.20	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	76	17	6	2	100%	4.5	22.0%	8.0%	14.1%	2.9%	4.23	3.82	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	46	200	844	189	67	22	100%	4.3	22.0%	8.0%	14.1%	2.9%	4.23	3.82	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		22	16	63	269	45	26	0	73%	2.8	16.7%	9.8%	6.9%	0.0%	3.88	2.93	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		70	51	200	859	143	84	0	73%	2.8	16.7%	9.8%	6.9%	0.0%	3.88	2.93	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Melvin Robles (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	21.4%	8.1%	2.9%	—	4.20	22.0%	14.0%	37	-0.09	—	—	—
Juan Rojas L 2022 · 3.66 FIP	18	SP-	3.66	23.0%	7.6%	2.8%	.279	4.29	15.9%	2.4%	164	+0.63	2.74	282	86
Robinson Ortiz L 2018 · 3.85 FIP	18	SP-	3.85	21.0%	11.0%	2.1%	.312	5.36	15.2%	0.6%	98	+1.51	2.29	275	85
Johan Simon L 2021 · 3.51 FIP	20	SP-	3.51	19.8%	10.2%	1.4%	.302	4.50	17.6%	1.1%	41	+0.99	3.45	177	81
James Gonzalez L 2019 · 3.47 FIP	18	SP-	3.47	18.7%	7.8%	1.8%	.327	4.87	17.1%	7.0%	91	+1.40	2.31	487	81
Blake Townsend L 2021 · 3.78 FIP	20	SP-	3.78	26.7%	11.2%	2.8%	.286	4.01	18.5%	4.8%	96	+0.23	3.34	305	80
Dalton Lehnen L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	21	SP	3.95	19.8%	7.6%	2.8%	.398	4.49	15.8%	2.9%	189	+0.54	3.95	222	77
Jeremy Gonzalez L 2023 · 4.02 FIP	18	SP	4.02	19.6%	10.6%	2.2%	.290	4.53	14.4%	-1.1%	83	+0.51	3.39	148	76
Jackson Stoeckinger L 2017 · 3.19 FIP	21	SP-	3.19	18.7%	7.7%	1.2%	.365	4.82	13.1%	7.3%	157	+1.63	3.19	184	75
Ryan Rolison L 2018 · 3.88 FIP	21	SP	3.88	21.2%	9.2%	2.6%	.200	4.41	19.1%	11.5%	191	+0.53	3.81	386	74
Brock Selvidge L 2022 · 3.70 FIP	19	SP-	3.70	19.9%	11.7%	1.5%	.321	3.79	17.8%	7.6%	287	+0.09	3.07	330	74
Pablo Aldonis L 2022 · 4.19 FIP	20	SP-	4.19	20.7%	8.0%	3.3%	.324	2.64	21.9%	13.1%	68	-1.55	1.89	135	74
Francis Texido L 2023 · 3.64 FIP	18	SP	3.64	20.4%	7.4%	2.4%	.260	5.41	16.0%	-2.9%	285	+1.77	3.64	336	73
Alberto Pacheco L 2021 · 3.39 FIP	18	SP	3.39	19.1%	6.2%	2.0%	.286	4.08	16.9%	6.3%	239	+0.69	3.07	427	73
Wilkin Paredes L 2023 · 4.11 FIP	19	SP	4.11	16.2%	9.1%	2.2%	.353	4.96	12.1%	3.3%	273	+0.85	4.11	319	73
Osvaldo Hernandez L 2017 · 3.58 FIP	19	SP-	3.58	20.4%	8.1%	2.1%	.324	3.33	15.0%	7.7%	142	-0.25	3.10	312	73
Ethan Lindow L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	18	SP	4.33	19.1%	12.4%	2.3%	.329	2.95	19.8%	14.0%	111	-1.38	2.95	435	73
Bodi Rascon L 2021 · 4.18 FIP	20	SP-	4.18	15.4%	8.8%	2.3%	.271	5.30	15.7%	3.9%	143	+1.12	4.18	218	73
Riley Frey L 2023 · 4.00 FIP	21	SP	4.00	22.5%	7.5%	3.4%	.417	4.47	18.0%	10.8%	184	+0.47	3.87	202	72
Yereny Teus L 2023 · 3.46 FIP	19	SP	3.46	19.2%	12.0%	0.8%	.284	3.42	24.1%	11.1%	142	-0.04	2.63	185	72
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	72

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	26	21.8%	8.0%	1.11	4.25
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Derek Law ('24)	1.5	60	21.5%	8.9%	0.88	3.47