Alberto Pacheco — OGILVIE

Alberto Pacheco P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 23 LHP 6'1" / 176 lbs AA peak 0.8 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131139vR 147

ERA6.00

FIP6.00

K%11.9%

BB%14.2%

K-BB%-2.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 42 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	18	ROK MLE	DSL Colorado	11	11	46	182	51	9	3	100%	4.2	19.1%	6.2%	12.9%	2.0%	2.93	3.39	—
2021	18	ROK RAW	DSL Colorado	11	11	46	182	51	9	3	100%	4.2	28.0%	4.9%	23.1%	1.6%	2.93	2.32	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	11	8	46	195	57	15	1	73%	4.2	19.9%	9.6%	10.3%	0.8%	3.13	3.07	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	11	8	46	195	57	15	1	73%	4.2	29.2%	7.7%	21.5%	0.5%	3.13	1.88	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	14	14	73	321	69	23	4	100%	5.2	15.9%	8.5%	7.5%	1.4%	5.45	3.58	—
2023	20	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	14	14	73	321	69	23	4	100%	5.2	15.9%	8.5%	7.5%	1.4%	5.45	3.58	—
2023	20	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	14	14	73	321	69	23	4	100%	5.2	21.5%	7.2%	14.3%	1.2%	5.45	2.87	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	121	515	113	53	11	91%	5.2	16.3%	12.1%	4.2%	2.8%	3.73	4.77	—
2024	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	21	121	515	113	53	11	91%	5.2	16.3%	12.1%	4.2%	2.8%	3.73	4.77	—
2024	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	21	121	515	113	53	11	91%	5.2	21.9%	10.3%	11.7%	2.1%	3.73	3.73	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	29	21	113	524	89	57	16	72%	3.9	13.1%	12.5%	0.6%	3.8%	6.53	5.68	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	29	21	113	524	89	57	16	72%	3.9	13.1%	12.5%	0.6%	3.8%	6.53	5.68	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	29	21	113	524	89	57	16	72%	3.9	17.0%	10.9%	6.1%	3.1%	6.53	4.88	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	24	2	36	175	37	29	8	8%	1.5	18.0%	19.3%	-1.3%	6.9%	8.50	7.81	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	24	2	36	175	37	29	8	8%	1.5	18.0%	19.3%	-1.3%	6.9%	8.50	7.81	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	COL	10	0	11	50	15	7	1	0%	1.1	30.0%	14.0%	16.0%	2.0%	1.59	3.44	—
2026	23	A+ RAW	COL	5	0	7	33	3	5	0	0%	1.4	9.1%	15.2%	-6.1%	0.0%	6.43	4.25	—
2026	23	AA RAW	COL	9	2	18	92	19	17	7	22%	2.0	20.7%	18.5%	2.2%	7.6%	13.75	7.87	—
ROS	23	MLB MLE	COL	6	0	6	27	3	4	1	0%	1.1	11.9%	14.2%	-2.3%	3.1%	6.00	6.00	-0.1
2026 TOT	23	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	42	202	40	33	9	—	—	19.9%	16.3%	3.7%	4.4%	8.13	7.54	-1.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	111	470	67	61	15	100%	5.9	14.3%	12.9%	1.4%	3.1%	5.70	5.61	-0.9
2028	25	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	113	476	75	58	15	100%	5.9	15.8%	12.2%	3.6%	3.1%	5.47	5.38	-0.6
2029	26	MLB MLE	COL	19	19	113	476	79	57	15	100%	5.9	16.7%	11.9%	4.7%	3.1%	5.33	5.27	-0.5
2030	27	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	111	469	79	56	15	100%	6.2	16.8%	11.9%	4.9%	3.1%	5.29	5.29	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	COL	18	18	108	455	76	55	15	100%	6.0	16.7%	12.1%	4.6%	3.2%	5.34	5.37	-0.6
2032	29	MLB MLE	COL	17	17	103	434	71	53	15	100%	6.1	16.4%	12.3%	4.1%	3.4%	5.44	5.50	-0.7
2033	30	MLB MLE	COL	16	16	97	408	66	51	15	100%	6.0	16.1%	12.6%	3.5%	3.6%	5.58	5.68	-0.8
2027	24	MLB CTX	COL	8	8	49	207	30	27	6	100%	6.1	14.3%	12.9%	1.4%	3.1%	5.70	5.61	-0.4
2028	25	MLB CTX	COL	13	13	75	317	50	39	10	100%	5.8	15.8%	12.2%	3.6%	3.1%	5.47	5.38	-0.4
2029	26	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	90	380	63	45	12	100%	6.0	16.7%	11.9%	4.7%	3.1%	5.33	5.27	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	95	401	67	48	13	100%	5.9	16.8%	11.9%	4.9%	3.1%	5.29	5.29	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	96	405	68	49	13	100%	6.0	16.7%	12.1%	4.6%	3.2%	5.34	5.37	-0.5
2032	29	MLB CTX	COL	16	16	94	397	65	49	13	100%	5.9	16.4%	12.3%	4.1%	3.4%	5.44	5.50	-0.6
2033	30	MLB CTX	COL	15	15	89	376	60	47	13	100%	5.9	16.1%	12.6%	3.5%	3.6%	5.58	5.68	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		98	98	588	2481	404	304	80	100%	6.0	16.3%	12.2%	4.0%	3.2%	5.43	5.05	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	138	103	27	100%	6.0	16.3%	12.2%	4.0%	3.2%	5.43	5.05	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		112	77	434	1912	309	219	56	69%	3.9	16.1%	11.4%	4.7%	2.9%	4.99	4.79	-4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	35	200	880	142	101	26	69%	3.9	16.1%	11.4%	4.7%	2.9%	4.99	4.79	-1.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alberto Pacheco (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.00	11.9%	14.2%	3.1%	—	5.42	15.6%	3.3%	337	-0.58	—	—	—
Ian Clarkin L 2018 · 5.33 FIP	23	SP-	5.33	9.3%	11.2%	2.9%	.290	6.01	8.1%	-4.9%	82	+0.68	3.79	335	80
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	78
Garrett Williams L 2018 · 5.04 FIP	23	SW	5.04	14.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.335	4.33	19.3%	4.5%	162	-0.71	3.37	470	77
Jaime Arias L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	23	SP-	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	3.6%	.332	5.54	15.7%	4.7%	77	+0.54	4.38	243	76
Edwin Escobar L 2015 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	9.6%	11.9%	3.9%	.268	4.28	13.7%	4.9%	122	-1.68	4.28	218	74
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	74
Alex Ayala Jr. L 2023 · 5.99 FIP	21	SP-	5.99	13.6%	16.7%	3.5%	.209	—	—	—	—	—	4.20	128	73
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	73
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	73
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	72
Luis Leroy Cruz L 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SP-	5.03	16.0%	10.1%	3.7%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	5.03	116	72
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	72
Gabriel Noguera L 2019 · 5.01 FIP	23	SP-	5.01	14.2%	12.1%	2.9%	.310	7.31	19.1%	-8.6%	27	+2.30	4.41	174	71
Matt Imhof L 2016 · 5.68 FIP	22	SP-	5.68	15.9%	21.3%	2.2%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	131	71
Michael Roth L 2015 · 4.94 FIP	25	SP-	4.94	12.1%	8.3%	3.3%	.298	4.42	13.5%	6.2%	358	-0.52	3.96	483	71
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	71
Shane Dawson L 2017 · 5.77 FIP	23	SP-	5.77	9.8%	10.3%	4.0%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	373	70
Demetrio Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	12.3%	8.5%	4.0%	.327	4.78	10.7%	3.9%	181	-0.55	3.68	322	70
Joel Valdez L 2023 · 5.73 FIP	23	SP-	5.73	17.1%	17.4%	3.4%	.266	3.42	22.0%	10.0%	116	-2.31	2.84	324	70
Brett Adcock L 2019 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP	5.34	17.4%	13.6%	3.6%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	301	69

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	104	15.7%	12.5%	1.24	5.50
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14