Alberto Pacheco
P
Hartford Yard Goats
+0.0
WAR
Age 23
LHP
6'1" / 176 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.2 · 2029
ERA5.11
FIP5.11
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.7%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%6.7%
IP113
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2029
K†4050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 11 | 11 | 46 | 182 | 51 | 9 | 3 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 1.9% | 2.93 | 3.30 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 11 | 8 | 46 | 195 | 57 | 15 | 1 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 0.8% | 3.13 | 3.10 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 14 | 14 | 73 | 321 | 69 | 23 | 4 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 1.3% | 5.45 | 3.57 | +1.2 |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 23 | 21 | 121 | 515 | 113 | 53 | 11 | 16.3% | 12.1% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 4.77 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 29 | 21 | 113 | 524 | 89 | 57 | 16 | 13.1% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 6.53 | 5.68 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 2 | 0 | 5 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 1 | — | — | — | 5.79 | — | — |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 113 | 477 | 85 | 53 | 15 | 17.7% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 5.11 | 5.11 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 118 | 496 | 90 | 53 | 16 | 18.0% | 10.6% | 3.2% | 5.14 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 132 | 556 | 107 | 56 | 17 | 19.2% | 10.1% | 3.1% | 4.92 | 4.84 | +0.7 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 26 | 26 | 145 | 614 | 123 | 59 | 19 | 20.1% | 9.5% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.68 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 28 | 28 | 152 | 643 | 132 | 60 | 20 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.67 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 28 | 28 | 155 | 656 | 135 | 62 | 20 | 20.6% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.63 | +1.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | COL | 28 | 28 | 155 | 654 | 134 | 62 | 20 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.65 | 4.65 | +1.1 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB | COL | 28 | 28 | 152 | 640 | 131 | 61 | 20 | 20.4% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.68 | 4.70 | +1.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB | COL | 27 | 27 | 147 | 621 | 125 | 60 | 20 | 20.2% | 9.6% | 3.2% | 4.73 | 4.76 | +0.9 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB | COL | 26 | 26 | 142 | 599 | 120 | 58 | 20 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.79 | 4.83 | +0.8 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | COL | 25 | 25 | 136 | 575 | 113 | 57 | 19 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.92 | +0.6 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | COL | 24 | 24 | 130 | 549 | 106 | 55 | 19 | 19.4% | 10.1% | 3.5% | 4.96 | 5.02 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | COL | 22 | 22 | 124 | 522 | 99 | 54 | 19 | 19.0% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 5.06 | 5.13 | +0.2 |
| 2038 | 35 | MLB | COL | 21 | 21 | 116 | 492 | 92 | 52 | 18 | 18.6% | 10.5% | 3.7% | 5.17 | 5.25 | +0.1 |
| 2039 | 36 | MLB | COL | 20 | 20 | 109 | 460 | 84 | 49 | 17 | 18.2% | 10.7% | 3.8% | 5.30 | 5.38 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 90 | 75 | 403 | 1756 | 282 | 185 | 45 | 16.1% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 4.69 | 4.47 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 45 | 37 | 200 | 871 | 140 | 92 | 22 | 16.1% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 4.69 | 4.47 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alberto Pacheco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.11 | 17.7% | 11.1% | 3.1% | — | 4.71 | 20.0% | 10.3% | 430 | -0.40 | — | — | — |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2025 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 92 |
| Eddie Campbell L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.06 | 13.5% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .315 | 6.31 | 13.7% | -3.8% | 140 | +1.25 | 5.06 | 250 | 90 |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2026 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.11 | 14.7% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .328 | 5.60 | 15.2% | -2.7% | 66 | +0.49 | 5.11 | 165 | 90 |
| Sam Garcia L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 89 |
| Scott DeCecco L 2027 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.56 | 14.5% | 11.5% | 2.2% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.56 | 125 | 88 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 88 |
| Cameron Bishop L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .316 | 3.45 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 66 | -1.22 | 2.86 | 305 | 87 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2027 · 5.02 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.02 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.6% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.02 | 116 | 87 |
| Tom Windle L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.63 | 12.3% | 13.0% | 1.7% | .304 | 4.31 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 159 | -0.32 | 3.66 | 330 | 85 |
| Jesse Biddle L 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.75 | 12.9% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .329 | 3.52 | 23.1% | 13.9% | 113 | -1.23 | 3.35 | 311 | 84 |
| Adam Tulloch L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.51 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .313 | 4.46 | 17.7% | 2.8% | 117 | -0.05 | 4.21 | 212 | 84 |
| Luis González L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 12.4% | 11.8% | 2.5% | .386 | 3.33 | 24.1% | 14.7% | 164 | -1.58 | 3.19 | 416 | 84 |
| Jake Zokan L 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .292 | 1.79 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.14 | 1.79 | 120 | 84 |
| Jaylen Nowlin L 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.21 | 18.7% | 12.6% | 3.8% | .299 | 5.17 | 20.3% | 1.7% | 53 | -0.04 | 3.45 | 325 | 84 |
| Trey Ball L 2026 · 5.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.20 | 14.7% | 11.0% | 3.5% | .367 | 5.08 | 14.4% | 5.3% | 65 | -0.12 | 5.08 | 437 | 83 |
| John Doxakis L 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.13 | 18.2% | 11.9% | 3.8% | .252 | 4.87 | 17.9% | 3.8% | 113 | -0.26 | 3.19 | 332 | 83 |
| Wandy Peralta L 2027 · 4.51 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.51 | 12.4% | 12.6% | 1.6% | .324 | 3.82 | 17.3% | 7.3% | 200 | -0.69 | 2.70 | 655 | 83 |
| Mark Reyes L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.23 | 10.8% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .299 | 5.68 | 8.9% | -8.1% | 111 | +0.45 | 3.20 | 378 | 83 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.46 | 18.0% | 11.1% | 2.7% | .318 | 3.31 | 24.2% | 15.8% | 322 | -1.15 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 83 |
| Jagger Haynes L 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.5% | 15.4% | 3.5% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 239 | 82 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.2 | $10M | +$10M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.1 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.6M | +1.0 | $10M | +$9M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.7M | +0.9 | $4M | +$4M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.7 | $4M | -$4M |
| Totals | $11M | $49M | +$38M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.