Alberto Pacheco
P
Hartford Yard Goats
Age 23
LHP
6'1" / 176 lbs
AA
peak 0.9 · 2031
2026 ROS PROJECTION25 act + 79 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 135144vR 153
ERA6.00
FIP6.00
K%11.9%
BB%14.2%
K-BB%-2.3%
ROS IP79
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 104 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 11 | 11 | 46 | 182 | 51 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 19.1% | 6.2% | 12.9% | 1.8% | 2.93 | 3.27 | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Colorado | 11 | 11 | 46 | 182 | 51 | 9 | 3 | 100% | 4.2 | 28.0% | 4.9% | 23.1% | 1.6% | 2.93 | 2.32 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 11 | 8 | 46 | 195 | 57 | 15 | 1 | 73% | 4.2 | 19.9% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 0.9% | 3.13 | 3.11 | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Rockies | 11 | 8 | 46 | 195 | 57 | 15 | 1 | 73% | 4.2 | 29.2% | 7.7% | 21.5% | 0.5% | 3.13 | 1.88 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 14 | 14 | 73 | 321 | 69 | 23 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 1.2% | 5.45 | 3.48 | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A | Fresno Grizzlies | 14 | 14 | 73 | 321 | 69 | 23 | 4 | 100% | 5.2 | 21.5% | 7.2% | 14.3% | 1.2% | 5.45 | 2.87 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 121 | 515 | 113 | 53 | 11 | 91% | 5.2 | 16.3% | 12.1% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 3.73 | 4.77 | — |
| 2024 | 21 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 21 | 121 | 515 | 113 | 53 | 11 | 91% | 5.2 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 2.1% | 3.73 | 3.73 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 29 | 21 | 113 | 524 | 89 | 57 | 16 | 72% | 3.9 | 13.1% | 12.5% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 6.53 | 5.68 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Spokane Indians | 29 | 21 | 113 | 524 | 89 | 57 | 16 | 72% | 3.9 | 17.0% | 10.9% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 6.53 | 4.88 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Hartford Yard Goats | 17 | 2 | 25 | 119 | 30 | 19 | 6 | 12% | 1.5 | 18.7% | 19.7% | -1.1% | 7.7% | 7.92 | 8.24 | -1.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | 75 | 0 | 79 | 334 | 40 | 47 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 11.9% | 14.2% | -2.3% | 3.1% | 6.00 | 6.00 | -1.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | COL | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 11.9% | 14.2% | -2.3% | 3.1% | 6.00 | 6.00 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 104 | 453 | 70 | 66 | 17 | — | — | 15.4% | 14.6% | 0.7% | 3.6% | 6.46 | 6.54 | -1.4 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | COL | — | — | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 11.9% | 14.2% | -2.3% | 3.1% | 6.00 | 5.62 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 81 | 342 | 50 | 45 | 11 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 5.70 | 5.61 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 55 | 43 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 15.9% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.47 | 5.38 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 14 | 14 | 82 | 347 | 58 | 42 | 11 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.8% | 12.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.33 | 5.28 | -0.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 81 | 342 | 58 | 41 | 11 | 100% | 6.2 | 16.9% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.29 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | COL | 13 | 13 | 78 | 331 | 62 | 38 | 11 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 5.18 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | COL | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 22 | 20 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 5.70 | 5.61 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | COL | 9 | 9 | 55 | 232 | 37 | 29 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.9% | 12.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.47 | 5.38 | -0.5 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | COL | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 46 | 33 | 8 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.8% | 12.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.33 | 5.28 | -0.5 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 49 | 35 | 9 | 100% | 5.8 | 16.9% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 5.29 | 5.29 | -0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | COL | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 55 | 34 | 10 | 100% | 5.8 | 18.8% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 5.18 | 5.10 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 51 | 50 | 296 | 1251 | 210 | 151 | 39 | 98% | 5.8 | 16.8% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.36 | 4.92 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 142 | 102 | 26 | 97% | 5.8 | 16.8% | 12.1% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 5.36 | 4.92 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 105 | 77 | 423 | 1856 | 299 | 208 | 52 | 73% | 4.0 | 16.1% | 11.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 4.87 | 4.70 | +3.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 50 | 36 | 200 | 877 | 141 | 98 | 25 | 73% | 4.0 | 16.1% | 11.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 4.87 | 4.70 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Alberto Pacheco (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.00 | 11.9% | 14.2% | 3.1% | — | 5.42 | 15.7% | 3.3% | 245 | -0.58 | — | — | — |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2025 · 5.23 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.23 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.5% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.23 | 105 | 80 |
| Ian Clarkin L 2026 · 5.42 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.42 | 9.3% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .290 | 5.84 | 8.1% | -4.9% | 82 | +0.42 | 3.92 | 335 | 80 |
| Bryce Hubbart L 2026 · 5.10 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.10 | 15.5% | 13.8% | 2.8% | .313 | 4.90 | 19.3% | 6.1% | 68 | -0.20 | 4.73 | 181 | 78 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2024 · 5.86 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.86 | 13.6% | 16.7% | 3.3% | .209 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.28 | 128 | 75 |
| Garrett Williams L 2026 · 5.24 FIP | 23 | SW | 5.24 | 14.5% | 16.2% | 2.4% | .335 | 4.43 | 19.3% | 4.5% | 162 | -0.81 | 3.36 | 470 | 75 |
| Luis Leroy Cruz L 2027 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 16.0% | 10.1% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.93 | 116 | 74 |
| Jaime Arias L 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.91 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 3.4% | .332 | 5.63 | 15.9% | 4.4% | 77 | +0.72 | 4.52 | 243 | 74 |
| Evan Grills L 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.51 | 13.0% | 8.6% | 4.4% | .335 | 3.80 | 16.1% | 11.6% | 221 | -1.71 | 3.24 | 309 | 74 |
| Gabriel Noguera L 2026 · 5.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.34 | 14.2% | 12.1% | 3.5% | .310 | 7.74 | 19.1% | -8.6% | 27 | +2.40 | 4.41 | 174 | 73 |
| Brett Adcock L 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.22 | 17.4% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 301 | 73 |
| Shane Dawson L 2026 · 5.50 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.50 | 9.8% | 10.3% | 3.5% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.72 | 373 | 73 |
| Matt Imhof L 2025 · 5.73 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.73 | 15.9% | 21.3% | 2.3% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.99 | 131 | 72 |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.01 | 14.7% | 14.8% | 2.3% | .328 | 5.58 | 15.2% | -2.7% | 66 | +0.57 | 5.01 | 165 | 72 |
| Colin Rodgers L 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.97 | 16.2% | 11.9% | 3.1% | .320 | 4.49 | 16.8% | 7.1% | 68 | -0.48 | 3.99 | 313 | 72 |
| Drake Britton L 2029 · 4.82 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.82 | 11.1% | 9.7% | 2.6% | .268 | 4.93 | 8.0% | -2.2% | 41 | +0.11 | 4.82 | 125 | 71 |
| Adam Laskey L 2026 · 6.44 FIP | 23 | SP- | 6.44 | 16.0% | 21.0% | 3.7% | .383 | 3.21 | 20.1% | 10.5% | 188 | -3.23 | 3.08 | 310 | 71 |
| Jake Zokan L 2027 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.12 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.80 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.32 | 1.80 | 120 | 71 |
| Jhordany Mezquita L 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.15 | 17.8% | 15.5% | 2.9% | .321 | 5.54 | 22.4% | 14.0% | 14 | +0.39 | 3.02 | 223 | 71 |
| Demetrio Gutierrez L 2028 · 5.80 FIP | 25 | SP- | 5.80 | 12.3% | 8.5% | 4.9% | .327 | 4.56 | 10.7% | 3.9% | 181 | -1.24 | 3.63 | 322 | 70 |
| Bailey Horn L 2026 · 5.16 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.16 | 19.7% | 12.7% | 3.9% | .300 | 4.71 | 22.7% | 9.5% | 152 | -0.45 | 4.13 | 265 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 81 | 15.8% | 12.5% | 1.21 | 5.49 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |