Carson Laws — OGILVIE

Carson Laws P Beloit Sky Carp

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 186 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.9 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 20 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%22.2%

BB%13.7%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP20

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	10	43	15	6	1	0%	1.1	34.9%	14.0%	20.9%	2.3%	4.35	3.20	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	9	0	10	43	15	6	1	0%	1.1	34.9%	14.0%	20.9%	2.3%	4.35	3.20	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	9	0	10	43	15	6	1	0%	1.1	34.9%	14.0%	20.9%	2.3%	4.35	3.20	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	21	89	403	109	59	17	95%	4.0	20.8%	16.8%	4.0%	5.3%	6.19	6.37	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	Beloit Sky Carp	22	21	89	403	109	59	17	95%	4.0	20.8%	16.8%	4.0%	5.3%	6.19	6.37	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	MIA	22	21	89	403	109	59	17	95%	4.0	27.0%	14.6%	12.4%	4.2%	6.19	4.99	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	MIA	16	16	89	376	86	45	12	100%	5.6	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	3.1%	4.85	4.77	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	90	380	88	42	12	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.0%	12.1%	3.1%	4.69	4.60	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	90	380	88	41	12	100%	6.0	23.2%	10.8%	12.5%	3.1%	4.61	4.56	+0.4
2030	27	MLB MLE	MIA	15	15	89	375	87	40	12	100%	5.9	23.2%	10.8%	12.4%	3.1%	4.60	4.59	+0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	86	363	84	40	12	100%	6.1	23.1%	10.9%	12.1%	3.2%	4.65	4.68	+0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	MIA	14	14	82	347	79	39	12	100%	5.9	22.8%	11.2%	11.7%	3.4%	4.75	4.81	+0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	77	326	80	35	12	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.7%	13.8%	3.6%	4.73	4.72	+0.2
2034	31	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	72	304	73	34	11	100%	6.0	24.1%	11.0%	13.1%	3.8%	4.84	4.92	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	MIA	7	7	38	160	37	19	5	100%	5.4	22.8%	12.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.77	4.69	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	60	253	59	28	7	100%	6.0	23.1%	11.0%	12.1%	2.9%	4.61	4.52	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	71	300	70	32	9	100%	5.9	23.2%	10.8%	12.5%	2.9%	4.53	4.48	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	76	321	74	35	9	100%	5.8	23.2%	10.8%	12.4%	3.0%	4.51	4.50	+0.3
2031	28	MLB CTX	MIA	13	13	77	325	75	36	10	100%	5.9	23.1%	10.9%	12.1%	3.0%	4.56	4.59	+0.2
2032	29	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	75	317	72	35	10	100%	6.2	22.8%	11.2%	11.7%	3.2%	4.66	4.72	+0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	MIA	12	12	71	300	73	32	10	100%	5.9	24.5%	10.7%	13.8%	3.4%	4.63	4.62	+0.1
2034	31	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	67	283	68	31	10	100%	6.1	24.1%	11.0%	13.1%	3.6%	4.74	4.82	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		90	90	535	2257	528	248	70	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.23	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	198	93	26	100%	6.0	23.4%	11.0%	12.4%	3.1%	4.61	4.23	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		31	21	99	446	99	74	22	68%	3.2	22.2%	16.6%	5.6%	5.0%	6.00	6.06	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		63	42	200	901	200	149	45	68%	3.2	22.2%	16.6%	5.6%	5.0%	6.00	6.06	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Carson Laws (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	22.2%	13.7%	3.1%	—	4.64	23.0%	11.8%	269	-0.41	—	—	—
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	88
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	86
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	85
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	81
Blair Henley R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	24	SP-	5.02	20.8%	12.2%	3.9%	.450	4.53	17.5%	5.2%	170	-0.49	3.97	187	80
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	80
James Proctor R 2021 · 3.99 FIP	23	SP	3.99	22.0%	15.2%	1.5%	.277	4.39	14.0%	1.5%	48	+0.40	3.99	109	79
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	78
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.16	23.1%	9.1%	200	-1.68	3.51	223	78
Zach Linginfelter R 2021 · 5.53 FIP	24	SP-	5.53	19.1%	16.0%	3.7%	.295	5.01	18.8%	-0.6%	46	-0.52	3.62	109	78
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	77
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	77
Dane Acker R 2022 · 5.60 FIP	23	SP	5.60	19.3%	15.2%	4.0%	.284	4.41	20.0%	8.4%	215	-1.19	4.34	257	76
Chris Campos R 2023 · 4.91 FIP	22	SP-	4.91	21.0%	11.8%	3.8%	.364	4.57	18.7%	11.7%	237	-0.34	4.54	306	76
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	76
Grant Judkins R 2021 · 5.77 FIP	23	SP-	5.77	21.0%	11.2%	5.5%	.346	5.61	16.4%	5.4%	150	-0.16	5.13	322	76
TJ Shook R 2021 · 4.90 FIP	23	SP	4.90	21.7%	13.8%	3.4%	.311	4.98	20.7%	10.3%	296	+0.08	3.35	451	76
Aaron Hernandez R 2019 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	18.6%	15.7%	2.4%	.340	4.81	20.2%	6.4%	111	-0.02	4.65	194	76
Casey Legumina R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	24	SP-	4.08	23.3%	9.3%	3.2%	.260	4.36	19.8%	10.9%	189	+0.28	3.06	349	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.5	77	23.3%	11.1%	1.26	4.72
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77