Carson Laws
P
Beloit Sky Carp
Age 23
RHP
6'1" / 186 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2028
2026 ROS PROJECTION60 act + 40 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121112vR 103
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%23.2%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%13.3%
ROS IP40
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 100 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.9% | 14.0% | 20.9% | 2.3% | 4.35 | 3.20 | — |
| 2025 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 9 | 0 | 10 | 43 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 34.9% | 14.0% | 20.9% | 2.3% | 4.35 | 3.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Beloit Sky Carp | 15 | 14 | 60 | 272 | 75 | 42 | 14 | 93% | 4.0 | 21.2% | 17.8% | 3.5% | 6.4% | 6.56 | 7.09 | -1.8 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 39 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 23.2% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 3.1% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 23.2% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.45 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 23 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 100 | 440 | 114 | 59 | 19 | — | — | 25.9% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 4.4% | 5.74 | 6.06 | -0.8 |
| 2026 FULL | 23 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | 23.2% | 10.0% | 13.3% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.07 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 41 | 172 | 41 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.36 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 41 | 174 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 4.33 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 41 | 174 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.3% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.26 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 41 | 171 | 42 | 16 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.3% | 9.1% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.30 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 7 | 7 | 39 | 166 | 40 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 3.2% | 4.34 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 24 | MLB | MIA | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 23.8% | 9.4% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.31 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 5 | 5 | 27 | 114 | 28 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 5.4 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 34 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 24.3% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.21 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 36 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.3% | 9.1% | 15.1% | 3.0% | 4.24 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB | MIA | 6 | 6 | 35 | 148 | 36 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 24.1% | 9.3% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 4.29 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 25 | 25 | 147 | 622 | 150 | 57 | 19 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 3.88 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 34 | 34 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 77 | 26 | 100% | 5.9 | 24.2% | 9.2% | 15.0% | 3.0% | 4.28 | 3.88 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 24 | 14 | 71 | 315 | 73 | 54 | 18 | 58% | 2.9 | 23.1% | 17.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.24 | 6.56 | -1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 68 | 40 | 200 | 892 | 206 | 154 | 52 | 58% | 2.9 | 23.1% | 17.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.24 | 6.56 | -2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Carson Laws (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 23.2% | 10.0% | 3.1% | — | 4.30 | 24.1% | 14.9% | 123 | -0.20 | — | — | — |
| Casey Legumina R 2027 · 4.28 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.28 | 23.3% | 9.3% | 3.6% | .260 | 4.34 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 189 | +0.06 | 3.68 | 323 | 89 |
| Michael Knorr R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.03 | 23.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .312 | 5.16 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 93 | +1.13 | 4.03 | 152 | 88 |
| Hunter Gregory R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.98 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.9% | .374 | 4.64 | 20.5% | 7.6% | 188 | +0.66 | 3.18 | 234 | 86 |
| Ray Gaither R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.91 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.6% | .314 | 4.49 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.42 | 4.16 | 164 | 85 |
| Noah Denoyer R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.45 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .275 | 4.09 | 25.9% | 14.9% | 121 | -0.36 | 3.05 | 181 | 83 |
| Ricky Castro R 2027 · 3.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.93 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .287 | 4.58 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 140 | +0.65 | 3.90 | 202 | 82 |
| Colin Fields R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.48 | 20.5% | 10.3% | 1.5% | .246 | 4.20 | 21.6% | 12.8% | 184 | +0.72 | 3.07 | 229 | 82 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2027 · 4.35 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.35 | 18.1% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .312 | 4.78 | 14.6% | 6.1% | 291 | +0.43 | 4.25 | 412 | 82 |
| Sam Benschoter R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.3% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .344 | 5.03 | 18.9% | 8.4% | 306 | +1.07 | 3.58 | 426 | 82 |
| J.C. Flowers R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.39 | 21.3% | 8.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 4.95 | 16.5% | 1.9% | 184 | +1.56 | 3.39 | 281 | 81 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2029 · 3.92 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.92 | 24.5% | 9.5% | 3.1% | .232 | 5.11 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 190 | +1.19 | 3.92 | 233 | 80 |
| Noah Skirrow R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.34 | 18.4% | 11.5% | 2.4% | .306 | 4.68 | 16.2% | 5.7% | 316 | +0.34 | 3.90 | 371 | 80 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.53 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.05 | 4.07 | 338 | 80 |
| Nick Fraze R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.68 | 18.8% | 7.3% | 4.1% | .271 | 4.64 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 162 | -0.04 | 3.81 | 278 | 80 |
| Grant Judkins R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.40 | 21.0% | 11.2% | 4.8% | .346 | 5.85 | 16.4% | 5.4% | 150 | +0.45 | 5.40 | 322 | 80 |
| Mason McGwire R 2025 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.50 | 23.5% | 10.9% | 1.8% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.50 | 128 | 78 |
| Ian Bedell R 2026 · 3.64 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.64 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 1.9% | .285 | 5.72 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 178 | +2.08 | 3.64 | 274 | 78 |
| Brett Gillis R 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.37 | 20.3% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .278 | 5.10 | 15.8% | 6.7% | 73 | +1.73 | 3.37 | 119 | 78 |
| Zach Peek R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.57 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .339 | 3.40 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 45 | -0.17 | 3.40 | 233 | 78 |
| Nathanael Santiago R 2028 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.47 | 20.3% | 11.4% | 1.2% | .286 | 3.51 | 23.2% | 10.9% | 71 | +0.04 | 2.45 | 138 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 40 | 24.0% | 9.3% | 1.20 | 4.36 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Robert Stephenson ('23) | 6 | 57 | 26.2% | 9.9% | 1.39 | 4.33 |
| Dominic Leone ('23) | 7 | 46 | 24.2% | 10.1% | 1.33 | 3.81 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Hansel Robles ('22) | 7 | 59 | 25.3% | 10.1% | 1.16 | 3.86 |