Kelvin Zapata

P DSL Orioles Black

Age 19 LHP 6'1" / 155 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	17	ROKDSL Orioles O…	11	11	39	4.62	3.64	27.1%	22.0%	—	K 18.4% · BB 27.5% · FIP 5.03
2026	18	ROKDSL Orioles B…	10	10	38	3.05	2.11	32.9%	13.9%	—	K 22.4% · BB 17.4% · FIP 3.41
2027PROJ	19	MLBBAL	4	4	23	5.57	5.57	22.2%	19.1%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	20	MLBBAL	3	3	18	5.26	5.13	22.7%	16.2%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 93%

CompsFrank Mozzicato (age 19) · Jay Groome (age 18) · Mavis Graves (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123131vR 139

ERA5.57

FIP5.57

K%22.2%

BB%19.1%

K-BB%3.1%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	39	177	48	39	0	100%	3.5	18.4%	27.5%	-9.1%	0.0%	4.62	5.03	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	39	177	48	39	0	100%	3.5	18.4%	27.5%	-9.1%	0.0%	4.62	5.03	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Orange	11	11	39	177	48	39	0	100%	3.5	27.1%	22.0%	5.1%	0.0%	4.62	3.64	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	10	10	38	158	52	22	0	100%	3.8	22.4%	17.4%	5.0%	0.0%	3.05	3.41	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Orioles Black	10	10	38	158	52	22	0	100%	3.8	22.4%	17.4%	5.0%	0.0%	3.05	3.41	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Orioles Black	10	10	38	158	52	22	0	100%	3.8	32.9%	13.9%	19.0%	0.0%	3.05	2.11	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	19	MLB	BAL	4	4	23	97	22	19	3	100%	5.8	22.2%	19.1%	3.1%	2.8%	5.57	5.57	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	BAL	7	7	37	156	35	25	4	100%	5.3	22.7%	16.2%	6.5%	2.8%	5.26	5.13	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	BAL	3	3	18	76	17	12	2	100%	6.0	22.7%	16.2%	6.5%	2.8%	5.26	5.13	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		4	4	18	77	17	12	2	100%	4.5	22.7%	16.2%	6.5%	2.8%	5.26	4.75	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	187	132	22	100%	4.6	22.7%	16.2%	6.5%	2.8%	5.26	4.75	+0.3
Career	—	MLE		21	21	77	335	68	76	0	100%	3.7	20.3%	22.8%	-2.5%	0.0%	3.84	4.27	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	54	200	866	176	197	0	100%	3.7	20.3%	22.8%	-2.5%	0.0%	3.84	4.27	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Kelvin Zapata (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.57	22.2%	19.1%	2.8%	—	5.13	22.7%	6.5%	37	-0.44	—	—	—
Frank Mozzicato L 2022 · 5.00 FIP	19	SP	5.00	21.5%	19.7%	2.2%	.306	5.60	18.6%	0.2%	288	+0.60	5.00	428	85
Jay Groome L 2017 · 4.56 FIP	18	SP	4.56	21.6%	14.8%	2.6%	.345	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	420	83
Mavis Graves L 2023 · 6.17 FIP	19	SP	6.17	18.8%	22.2%	3.3%	.365	4.16	23.9%	10.0%	243	-2.01	3.10	277	82
Jackson Humphries L 2023 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	19.8%	14.0%	2.3%	.302	5.94	20.8%	1.5%	248	+1.46	4.48	305	81
Jacob Bresnahan L 2024 · 4.95 FIP	19	SP	4.95	20.2%	14.1%	3.2%	.292	3.92	23.2%	11.1%	208	-1.03	3.03	277	79
Luke Fox L 2024 · 5.24 FIP	22	SP	5.24	21.8%	19.2%	2.8%	.284	4.16	21.4%	8.1%	125	-1.08	3.60	156	78
Jeremy Pilon L 2024 · 4.86 FIP	18	SP-	4.86	22.1%	21.7%	1.6%	.279	4.10	17.9%	-1.9%	83	-0.76	3.99	144	76
Ricardo Estrada L 2021 · 4.43 FIP	19	SP	4.43	15.7%	17.4%	0.8%	.282	3.19	17.6%	6.7%	86	-1.24	2.63	289	76
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	75
Nicolas Carreno L 2024 · 4.48 FIP	18	SP	4.48	21.3%	20.8%	1.0%	.243	4.64	20.6%	3.1%	122	+0.16	4.48	166	75
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	74
Reinold Navarro L 2024 · 4.92 FIP	17	SP	4.92	21.7%	22.6%	1.4%	.211	4.32	29.4%	5.7%	95	-0.60	3.55	119	74
Jesus Gomez L 2019 · 5.12 FIP	18	SP	5.12	19.3%	12.4%	3.8%	.275	4.40	24.3%	9.8%	23	-0.72	4.22	121	73
Dax Fulton L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP	4.48	18.6%	13.2%	2.3%	.311	3.78	22.8%	12.3%	151	-0.70	3.52	421	73
Hector Yan L 2018 · 5.96 FIP	19	SP	5.96	14.8%	18.8%	3.2%	.321	4.90	21.8%	6.6%	191	-1.06	3.48	268	73
John Beller L 2021 · 4.48 FIP	22	SP	4.48	19.7%	14.1%	2.3%	.326	4.35	22.2%	7.1%	90	-0.13	4.16	170	71
Keyner Benitez L 2024 · 4.90 FIP	18	SP	4.90	18.0%	12.9%	3.1%	.255	4.24	17.4%	2.3%	73	-0.66	4.06	177	71
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	71
José Alvarado L 2015 · 5.31 FIP	20	SP	5.31	15.1%	20.1%	1.7%	.347	3.00	25.3%	11.6%	183	-2.31	1.57	524	71
Bryan Magdaleno L 2021 · 4.62 FIP	20	SP	4.62	14.3%	18.0%	0.8%	.290	3.80	22.2%	5.9%	63	-0.82	3.40	191	71

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	30	22.5%	17.3%	1.07	5.38
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dave Jolly ('53-'57, -0 WAR*)	1.5	58	20.2%*	14.3%*	0.91*	4.33*