Ricardo Estrada — OGILVIE

Ricardo Estrada P San Jose Giants

Age 24 LHP 5'10" / 214 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.0 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 44 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%18.8%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%8.4%

ROS IP44

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 44 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$10M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	10	10	38	165	38	23	1	100%	3.8	15.7%	17.4%	-1.8%	0.8%	3.05	4.43	—
2021	19	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	10	10	38	165	38	23	1	100%	3.8	23.0%	13.9%	9.1%	0.6%	3.05	3.26	—
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	10	10	42	178	38	17	1	100%	4.2	14.5%	11.9%	2.6%	0.7%	5.40	3.79	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	10	10	42	178	38	17	1	100%	4.2	21.3%	9.6%	11.8%	0.6%	5.40	2.81	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	2	2	7	32	3	5	0	100%	3.5	9.4%	15.6%	-6.2%	0.0%	3.86	4.29	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	2	2	7	32	3	5	0	100%	3.5	9.4%	15.6%	-6.2%	0.0%	3.86	4.29	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	2	2	7	32	3	5	0	100%	3.5	9.4%	15.6%	-6.2%	0.0%	3.86	4.39	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	13	8	44	175	53	14	0	62%	3.4	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	0.0%	1.22	2.63	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	13	8	44	175	53	14	0	62%	3.4	20.6%	10.0%	10.6%	0.0%	1.22	2.63	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	13	8	44	175	53	14	0	62%	3.4	30.3%	8.0%	22.3%	0.0%	1.22	1.66	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	3	73	301	74	27	4	14%	3.3	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	1.5%	2.10	3.80	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	3	73	301	74	27	4	14%	3.3	17.3%	10.7%	6.6%	1.5%	2.10	3.80	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	3	73	301	74	27	4	14%	3.3	24.6%	9.0%	15.6%	1.3%	2.10	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	23	15	92	395	85	52	10	65%	4.0	15.9%	15.5%	0.4%	3.3%	4.12	5.53	—
YTD	24	A MLE	San Jose Giants	23	15	92	395	85	52	10	65%	4.0	15.9%	15.5%	0.4%	3.3%	4.12	5.53	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A RAW	SF	23	15	92	395	85	52	10	65%	4.0	21.5%	13.2%	8.4%	2.5%	4.12	4.34	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	91	384	76	37	11	100%	6.5	19.9%	9.7%	10.1%	2.8%	4.60	4.55	+0.4
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	14	14	91	384	78	37	11	100%	6.5	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	2.8%	4.52	4.49	+0.4
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	90	378	77	36	11	100%	6.9	20.5%	9.5%	10.9%	2.8%	4.51	4.52	+0.4
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	13	13	87	366	75	35	11	100%	6.7	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.9%	4.55	4.59	+0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	83	350	70	34	11	100%	6.9	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	3.1%	4.65	4.72	+0.2
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	12	12	78	329	72	31	11	100%	6.5	21.8%	9.3%	12.5%	3.3%	4.64	4.63	+0.2
2033	31	MLB MLE	SF	11	11	73	307	66	30	11	100%	6.6	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.5%	4.75	4.83	+0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	6	6	39	165	33	16	4	100%	6.5	19.9%	9.7%	10.1%	2.6%	4.49	4.44	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	9	9	60	253	52	24	7	100%	6.7	20.4%	9.5%	10.9%	2.6%	4.41	4.38	+0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	69	291	60	28	8	100%	6.9	20.5%	9.5%	10.9%	2.6%	4.39	4.40	+0.3
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	73	308	63	30	8	100%	6.6	20.4%	9.6%	10.8%	2.7%	4.43	4.47	+0.3
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	11	11	73	308	62	30	9	100%	6.6	20.1%	9.8%	10.3%	2.9%	4.52	4.59	+0.2
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	70	296	64	28	9	100%	7.0	21.8%	9.3%	12.5%	3.0%	4.50	4.49	+0.2
2033	31	MLB CTX	SF	10	10	66	279	60	27	9	100%	6.6	21.4%	9.7%	11.7%	3.3%	4.61	4.69	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		67	67	450	1901	393	183	54	100%	6.7	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.8%	4.48	4.12	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		30	30	200	844	175	81	24	100%	6.7	20.7%	9.6%	11.1%	2.8%	4.48	4.12	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		80	48	296	1246	206	166	20	60%	3.7	16.5%	13.3%	3.2%	1.6%	3.22	4.28	+2.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	32	200	842	139	112	14	60%	3.7	16.5%	13.3%	3.2%	1.6%	3.22	4.28	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ricardo Estrada (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	18.8%	10.4%	2.7%	—	4.52	20.2%	10.6%	271	-0.20	—	—	—
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	88
Thomas Ireland L 2023 · 4.64 FIP	21	SP-	4.64	16.7%	8.7%	3.4%	.286	3.80	17.3%	7.9%	201	-0.84	2.95	245	83
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	81
Mac Lardner L 2022 · 5.08 FIP	24	SW	5.08	17.4%	9.4%	4.1%	.318	3.66	17.5%	8.1%	62	-1.42	3.66	186	81
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	80
JP Sears L 2019 · 3.85 FIP	23	SW	3.85	16.8%	8.9%	1.9%	.268	3.34	24.7%	17.8%	222	-0.51	2.18	958	80
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	79
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	78
Nick Maronde L 2015 · 3.85 FIP	25	SW	3.85	18.3%	8.9%	2.1%	.359	3.62	16.3%	8.9%	48	-0.23	3.62	133	77
Brady Basso L 2021 · 3.93 FIP	23	SP-	3.93	21.8%	8.7%	2.8%	.333	4.20	21.6%	15.5%	179	+0.27	2.24	306	77
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	76
Irwin Delgado L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	26	SW	4.77	14.4%	9.6%	3.0%	.349	3.53	16.2%	7.6%	237	-1.24	3.52	383	76
Colin Rodgers L 2018 · 4.36 FIP	24	SW	4.36	16.8%	9.7%	2.6%	.346	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	313	75
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	75
Angel Perdomo L 2018 · 3.57 FIP	24	SW	3.57	22.6%	11.8%	1.6%	.315	4.01	32.7%	17.7%	100	+0.44	2.82	540	75
Tim Berry L 2015 · 4.46 FIP	24	SP-	4.46	12.0%	9.7%	2.1%	.346	5.03	14.7%	-0.6%	113	+0.57	4.04	196	74
Jake Prizina L 2021 · 4.35 FIP	24	SP-	4.35	16.3%	9.6%	2.6%	.275	3.41	18.6%	11.3%	59	-0.94	1.82	176	73
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	73
Matt Purke L 2015 · 3.82 FIP	25	SP-	3.82	12.5%	7.4%	1.5%	.340	3.78	20.6%	7.6%	169	-0.04	3.01	226	73
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	79	20.5%	9.7%	1.16	4.61
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43