Ricardo Estrada
P
San Jose Giants
Age 24
LHP
5'10" / 214 lbs
A
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036
peak 0.6 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION64 act + 44 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101110vR 119
ERA4.40
FIP4.40
K%21.6%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP44
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 109 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 10 | 10 | 38 | 165 | 38 | 23 | 1 | 100% | 3.8 | 15.7% | 17.4% | -1.8% | 0.8% | 3.05 | 4.41 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 10 | 10 | 38 | 165 | 38 | 23 | 1 | 100% | 3.8 | 23.0% | 13.9% | 9.1% | 0.6% | 3.05 | 3.26 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 10 | 10 | 42 | 178 | 38 | 17 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 14.5% | 11.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 5.40 | 3.76 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 10 | 10 | 42 | 178 | 38 | 17 | 1 | 100% | 4.2 | 21.3% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 0.6% | 5.40 | 2.81 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 2 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 3.5 | 9.4% | 15.6% | -6.2% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 4.29 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 2 | 2 | 7 | 32 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 3.5 | 9.4% | 15.6% | -6.2% | 0.0% | 3.86 | 4.39 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 13 | 8 | 44 | 175 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 62% | 3.4 | 20.6% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 0.0% | 1.22 | 2.63 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | DSL Giants Black | 13 | 8 | 44 | 175 | 53 | 14 | 0 | 62% | 3.4 | 30.3% | 8.0% | 22.3% | 0.0% | 1.22 | 1.66 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 3 | 73 | 301 | 74 | 27 | 4 | 14% | 3.3 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 6.6% | 1.2% | 2.10 | 3.68 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 22 | 3 | 73 | 301 | 74 | 27 | 4 | 14% | 3.3 | 24.6% | 9.0% | 15.6% | 1.3% | 2.10 | 2.89 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A | San Jose Giants | 16 | 12 | 64 | 271 | 61 | 37 | 6 | 75% | 4.0 | 16.7% | 16.1% | 0.5% | 2.9% | 3.92 | 5.31 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | 8 | 8 | 44 | 187 | 41 | 19 | 5 | 100% | 5.5 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.40 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 21.6% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 2.6% | 4.34 | 4.34 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 109 | 458 | 102 | 56 | 11 | — | — | 22.1% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 2.4% | 4.11 | 4.94 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 45 | 190 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 2.7% | 4.34 | 4.31 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 45 | 190 | 43 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.29 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 44 | 187 | 42 | 18 | 5 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 2.8% | 4.32 | 4.33 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 7 | 7 | 43 | 182 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 100% | 6.1 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 2.9% | 4.37 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 3 | 3 | 19 | 80 | 18 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.2% | 9.5% | 12.7% | 2.6% | 4.28 | 4.25 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 5 | 5 | 30 | 127 | 28 | 12 | 3 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.5% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 2.6% | 4.25 | 4.23 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 5 | 5 | 34 | 144 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.8 | 22.5% | 9.5% | 13.0% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 4.27 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 34 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 22.4% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 19 | 19 | 119 | 504 | 113 | 48 | 14 | 100% | 6.3 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 3.90 | +2.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 31 | 31 | 200 | 844 | 189 | 80 | 23 | 100% | 6.4 | 22.4% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 3.90 | +3.5 | ||
| Career | — | 73 | 45 | 269 | 1122 | 188 | 149 | 14 | 62% | 3.7 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 3.08 | 4.05 | +4.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 33 | 200 | 835 | 140 | 111 | 10 | 62% | 3.7 | 16.8% | 13.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 3.08 | 4.05 | +3.2 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ricardo Estrada (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.40 | 21.6% | 9.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.31 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 134 | -0.09 | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 85 |
| Tommy Shirley L 2028 · 3.30 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.30 | 19.6% | 7.0% | 1.8% | .252 | 4.86 | 13.0% | 4.2% | 106 | +1.56 | 3.30 | 147 | 82 |
| Hayden Wynja L 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.84 | 20.5% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .315 | 4.77 | 18.0% | 7.5% | 56 | -0.07 | 4.77 | 154 | 80 |
| Brady Basso L 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.99 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.17 | 22.1% | 15.5% | 179 | +0.18 | 2.24 | 269 | 80 |
| Garrett Schoenle L 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.66 | 21.4% | 10.8% | 3.6% | .263 | 4.29 | 21.0% | 9.5% | 219 | -0.37 | 2.34 | 338 | 79 |
| Ryan Magdic L 2027 · 3.64 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.64 | 18.3% | 6.7% | 2.3% | .314 | 3.18 | 21.5% | 16.7% | 54 | -0.46 | 3.18 | 150 | 77 |
| Garrett Gainey L 2027 · 3.65 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.65 | 17.6% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .257 | 5.52 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 53 | +1.87 | 3.65 | 116 | 77 |
| JP Sears L 2025 · 3.90 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.90 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.0% | .268 | 3.25 | 24.7% | 17.8% | 222 | -0.65 | 2.18 | 927 | 76 |
| Mac Lardner L 2026 · 5.23 FIP | 24 | SW | 5.23 | 17.4% | 9.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 3.54 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 62 | -1.69 | 3.54 | 186 | 76 |
| Angel Perdomo L 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.47 | 22.6% | 11.8% | 1.4% | .315 | 4.10 | 32.7% | 17.7% | 100 | +0.63 | 2.79 | 540 | 75 |
| Nick Maronde L 2027 · 3.67 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.67 | 18.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .359 | 3.64 | 16.3% | 8.9% | 48 | -0.03 | 3.64 | 133 | 75 |
| Charlie McDaniel L 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.78 | 17.3% | 7.1% | 2.3% | .305 | 4.26 | 16.9% | 10.6% | 73 | +0.48 | 3.78 | 174 | 75 |
| Nate Peterson L 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.14 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 4.0% | .296 | 3.95 | 15.5% | 4.2% | 121 | -1.19 | 3.67 | 288 | 75 |
| Jordan Woods L 2024 · 3.74 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.74 | 24.2% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.74 | 143 | 74 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 74 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 74 |
| Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.64 | 22.0% | 14.9% | 2.8% | .289 | 2.98 | 26.6% | 12.9% | 99 | -1.66 | 2.15 | 175 | 73 |
| Carson Teel L 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.44 | 17.2% | 8.8% | 1.2% | .292 | 4.80 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 144 | +1.36 | 3.44 | 248 | 73 |
| Nico Tellache L 2029 · 3.89 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.89 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 2.3% | .373 | 4.65 | 13.4% | 4.8% | 78 | +0.76 | 3.89 | 160 | 73 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.50 | 24.6% | 11.9% | 1.8% | .326 | 3.21 | 23.9% | 17.4% | 387 | -0.29 | 2.56 | 1,397 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 5 | 44 | 22.2% | 9.6% | 1.08 | 4.35 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Cam Bedrosian ('21) | 6 | 45 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 0.97 | 3.68 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |