Nicolas Carreno — OGILVIE

Nicolas Carreno P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 20 LHP 5'10" / 155 lbs A+ Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 1.6 · 2032

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 14 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 143

ERA5.79

FIP5.79

K%20.9%

BB%19.7%

K-BB%1.2%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-2	$4M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$9M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	12	1	12	68	17	21	1	8%	1.0	17.0%	38.6%	-21.6%	2.1%	10.50	7.68	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Pirates Black	12	1	12	68	17	21	1	8%	1.0	17.0%	38.6%	-21.6%	2.1%	10.50	7.68	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Pirates Black	12	1	12	68	17	21	1	8%	1.0	25.0%	30.9%	-5.9%	1.5%	10.50	6.60	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	32	144	45	24	1	100%	2.9	21.3%	20.8%	0.4%	1.0%	3.66	4.48	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	32	144	45	24	1	100%	2.9	21.3%	20.8%	0.4%	1.0%	3.66	4.48	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Orange	11	11	32	144	45	24	1	100%	2.9	31.2%	16.7%	14.6%	0.7%	3.66	2.94	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	28	138	32	19	0	29%	2.0	15.5%	21.6%	-6.1%	0.0%	5.72	4.53	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	4	28	138	32	19	0	29%	2.0	15.5%	21.6%	-6.1%	0.0%	5.72	4.53	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	4	28	138	32	19	0	29%	2.0	23.2%	13.8%	9.4%	0.0%	5.72	2.85	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	24	18	100	430	124	62	8	75%	4.2	21.8%	16.7%	5.1%	2.3%	3.42	4.67	—
YTD	20	A+ MLE	Brooklyn Cyclones	24	18	100	430	124	62	8	75%	4.2	21.8%	16.7%	5.1%	2.3%	3.42	4.67	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	NYM	11	6	42	172	58	21	2	55%	3.8	33.7%	12.2%	21.5%	1.2%	1.94	2.44	—
2026	20	A+ RAW	NYM	13	12	58	258	66	41	6	92%	4.5	25.6%	15.9%	9.7%	2.3%	4.47	4.23	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	103	434	93	72	12	100%	5.4	21.4%	16.5%	4.9%	2.8%	5.44	5.31	-0.5
2028	22	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	108	456	102	64	13	100%	5.4	22.4%	14.1%	8.2%	2.8%	5.09	4.90	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	NYM	21	21	112	472	109	59	13	100%	5.3	23.1%	12.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.80	4.62	+0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	115	484	114	56	13	100%	5.7	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	2.7%	4.58	4.43	+0.6
2031	25	MLB MLE	NYM	20	20	116	490	118	53	13	100%	5.8	24.0%	10.8%	13.2%	2.7%	4.42	4.31	+0.8
2032	26	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	116	490	118	53	13	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.29	+0.8
2033	27	MLB MLE	NYM	19	19	114	483	117	52	13	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.9%	13.3%	2.8%	4.33	4.32	+0.8
2034	28	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	111	469	113	52	13	100%	6.2	24.0%	11.0%	13.0%	2.9%	4.38	4.41	+0.6
2035	29	MLB MLE	NYM	18	18	106	448	107	50	13	100%	5.9	23.8%	11.2%	12.6%	3.0%	4.48	4.54	+0.4
2036	30	MLB MLE	NYM	17	17	100	421	99	49	13	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.72	+0.2
2037	31	MLB MLE	NYM	15	15	93	392	90	47	13	100%	6.2	23.1%	11.9%	11.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2038	32	MLB MLE	NYM	14	14	86	363	82	45	13	100%	6.1	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	3.7%	5.01	5.15	-0.2
2027	21	MLB CTX	NYM	9	9	51	215	46	36	6	100%	5.7	21.4%	16.5%	4.9%	2.8%	5.44	5.31	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	79	334	75	47	9	100%	5.3	22.4%	14.1%	8.2%	2.8%	5.09	4.90	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	94	397	92	50	11	100%	5.2	23.1%	12.5%	10.5%	2.7%	4.80	4.62	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	102	431	102	49	12	100%	5.7	23.6%	11.5%	12.1%	2.7%	4.58	4.43	+0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	107	452	108	49	12	100%	5.9	24.0%	10.8%	13.2%	2.7%	4.42	4.31	+0.7
2032	26	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	108	456	110	49	12	100%	6.0	24.2%	10.8%	13.4%	2.7%	4.34	4.29	+0.8
2033	27	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	109	460	111	50	13	100%	6.1	24.2%	10.9%	13.3%	2.7%	4.33	4.32	+0.7
2034	28	MLB CTX	NYM	18	18	105	443	107	49	13	100%	5.8	24.0%	11.0%	13.0%	2.8%	4.38	4.41	+0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	NYM	17	17	101	426	101	48	13	100%	5.9	23.8%	11.2%	12.6%	3.0%	4.48	4.54	+0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	NYM	16	16	95	401	94	46	13	100%	5.9	23.4%	11.5%	11.9%	3.2%	4.62	4.72	+0.2
2037	31	MLB CTX	NYM	15	15	88	372	86	44	13	100%	5.9	23.1%	11.9%	11.2%	3.4%	4.80	4.92	-0.0
2038	32	MLB CTX	NYM	14	14	82	346	78	43	13	100%	5.9	22.6%	12.3%	10.3%	3.7%	5.00	5.14	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		193	193	1120	4730	1109	559	138	100%	5.8	23.4%	11.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.63	4.22	+8.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	198	100	25	100%	5.8	23.4%	11.8%	11.6%	2.9%	4.63	4.22	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		61	34	172	780	157	158	13	56%	2.8	20.2%	20.3%	-0.1%	1.7%	4.33	4.87	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		71	39	200	905	182	183	15	56%	2.8	20.2%	20.3%	-0.1%	1.7%	4.33	4.87	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nicolas Carreno (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.79	20.9%	19.7%	2.9%	—	4.93	22.3%	8.0%	323	-0.86	—	—	—
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	76
Spencer Giesting L 2022 · 5.80 FIP	21	SP-	5.80	20.8%	16.6%	4.3%	.290	4.31	18.9%	7.9%	394	-1.49	3.58	457	76
Miguel Gutierrez L 2015 · 5.58 FIP	20	SP-	5.58	14.3%	21.8%	1.7%	.240	4.24	14.9%	-4.1%	64	-1.34	3.91	103	75
Liam Sullivan L 2023 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP	5.78	25.7%	20.5%	4.1%	.290	5.79	20.9%	7.2%	141	+0.01	4.45	156	75
Manuel Osorio L 2023 · 4.83 FIP	17	SP-	4.83	15.5%	17.7%	1.4%	.276	4.91	16.8%	-0.2%	130	+0.08	3.90	168	73
Adam Laskey L 2021 · 6.39 FIP	23	SP-	6.39	16.0%	21.0%	3.6%	.383	3.25	20.1%	10.5%	188	-3.14	3.12	310	73
Brayan Restituyo L 2022 · 4.81 FIP	20	SW	4.81	17.6%	14.6%	2.5%	.397	4.46	18.4%	6.3%	144	-0.35	3.66	239	73
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	73
Noah Dean L 2023 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	21.1%	28.1%	1.7%	.343	5.14	23.3%	4.2%	154	-0.69	4.41	217	73
Carlos Meza L 2021 · 5.03 FIP	20	SP-	5.03	15.5%	12.2%	3.1%	.325	4.67	20.6%	4.4%	138	-0.36	3.72	229	72
Luis Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.75 FIP	20	SW	4.75	14.7%	15.8%	1.6%	.374	4.08	16.2%	7.4%	210	-0.67	3.26	296	71
Luis Cesar L 2023 · 5.28 FIP	19	SP-	5.28	14.8%	20.6%	1.5%	.351	5.77	14.3%	-8.1%	91	+0.49	4.84	131	70
Joe Adametz L 2023 · 5.89 FIP	23	SW	5.89	19.0%	15.0%	4.5%	.158	4.32	14.8%	5.5%	224	-1.57	3.66	248	70
Gregory Reinoso L 2016 · 5.11 FIP	20	SP-	5.11	12.3%	15.6%	1.9%	.299	6.70	11.3%	-7.8%	29	+1.59	4.18	105	70
Bailey Horn L 2021 · 4.99 FIP	23	SP-	4.99	19.7%	12.7%	3.6%	.300	4.64	21.9%	9.9%	152	-0.35	3.96	265	70
Salvador Montano L 2015 · 5.23 FIP	21	SP-	5.23	11.5%	15.9%	2.0%	.301	4.65	21.3%	-0.0%	71	-0.58	4.44	116	69
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	69
Derek Corro L 2023 · 6.42 FIP	18	SP-	6.42	14.4%	26.5%	2.1%	.432	5.20	15.9%	-3.8%	67	-1.22	4.54	128	68
Alexuan Vega L 2019 · 5.05 FIP	20	SP-	5.05	13.2%	20.1%	0.9%	.379	6.06	10.8%	-5.8%	68	+1.01	5.05	111	68
Brayan De Paula L 2019 · 6.00 FIP	20	SW	6.00	16.9%	16.4%	4.1%	.272	4.58	20.9%	6.1%	59	-1.42	3.57	243	68

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	6.5	100	23.3%	12.1%	1.13	4.69
Jon Gray ('24)	6.1	122	23.4%	7.8%	1.15	4.45
Vince Velasquez ('23)	3.8	85	24.9%	9.3%	1.48	4.88
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98