Nicolas Carreno
P
St. Lucie Mets
Age 20
LHP
5'10" / 155 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 103112vR 121
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
K%22.8%
BB%10.8%
K-BB%12.0%
ROS IP14
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Pirates Black | 12 | 1 | 12 | 68 | 17 | 21 | 1 | 8% | 1.0 | 17.0% | 38.6% | -21.6% | 2.1% | 10.50 | 7.68 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Pirates Black | 12 | 1 | 12 | 68 | 17 | 21 | 1 | 8% | 1.0 | 25.0% | 30.9% | -5.9% | 1.5% | 10.50 | 6.60 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 11 | 11 | 32 | 144 | 45 | 24 | 1 | 100% | 2.9 | 21.3% | 20.8% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 3.66 | 4.48 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mets Orange | 11 | 11 | 32 | 144 | 45 | 24 | 1 | 100% | 2.9 | 31.2% | 16.7% | 14.6% | 0.7% | 3.66 | 2.94 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 4 | 28 | 138 | 32 | 19 | 0 | 29% | 2.0 | 15.5% | 21.6% | -6.1% | 0.0% | 5.72 | 4.53 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 4 | 28 | 138 | 32 | 19 | 0 | 29% | 2.0 | 23.2% | 13.8% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 5.72 | 2.85 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Brooklyn Cyclones | 17 | 11 | 66 | 290 | 82 | 42 | 6 | 65% | 3.9 | 21.2% | 16.9% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 3.66 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | NYM | 2 | 2 | 14 | 61 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 7.2 | 22.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 22.8% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 2.9% | 4.50 | 4.50 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | NYM | — | — | 81 | 351 | 96 | 49 | 8 | — | — | 27.3% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 2.2% | 3.81 | 4.82 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | NYM | 4 | 4 | 20 | 84 | 20 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | NYM | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 23.2% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 4.34 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 4.9 | 23.2% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 3.96 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 36 | 200 | 844 | 203 | 81 | 20 | 100% | 5.6 | 23.2% | 10.1% | 13.2% | 2.8% | 4.40 | 3.96 | +3.4 | ||
| Career | — | 54 | 27 | 139 | 640 | 125 | 135 | 10 | 50% | 2.6 | 19.5% | 21.1% | -1.6% | 1.6% | 4.67 | 5.02 | +0.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 78 | 39 | 200 | 923 | 180 | 195 | 15 | 50% | 2.6 | 19.5% | 21.1% | -1.6% | 1.6% | 4.67 | 5.02 | +0.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Nicolas Carreno (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 22.8% | 10.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.34 | 23.2% | 13.2% | 20 | -0.16 | — | — | — |
| Sonny Vargas L 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.43 | 21.0% | 10.1% | 3.3% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 165 | 82 |
| Matt Osterberg L 2028 · 3.89 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.89 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 1.7% | .255 | 4.14 | 15.6% | 9.3% | 274 | +0.25 | 3.59 | 294 | 81 |
| Benony Robles L 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.58 | 22.3% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .262 | 5.00 | 19.2% | 4.5% | 135 | +1.42 | 3.58 | 271 | 81 |
| Johan Simon L 2026 · 3.42 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.42 | 19.8% | 10.2% | 1.3% | .302 | 4.50 | 17.6% | 1.1% | 41 | +1.08 | 3.42 | 158 | 80 |
| Blake Townsend L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.96 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.1% | .286 | 4.11 | 18.5% | 4.8% | 96 | +0.15 | 3.40 | 263 | 79 |
| Alex Ayala Jr. L 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.28 | 20.7% | 12.3% | 2.5% | .271 | 5.86 | 13.6% | -3.1% | 71 | +1.58 | 4.28 | 128 | 79 |
| Thomas Ireland L 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.50 | 16.7% | 8.7% | 3.1% | .286 | 3.55 | 17.3% | 8.3% | 177 | -0.95 | 2.94 | 221 | 79 |
| Taylor Hearn L 2027 · 3.88 FIP | 21 | SW | 3.88 | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .347 | 3.97 | 22.3% | 11.7% | 236 | +0.09 | 3.66 | 572 | 78 |
| Aidan Deakins L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.83 | 18.9% | 8.5% | 2.3% | .323 | 5.29 | 17.1% | 6.0% | 62 | +1.46 | 3.83 | 119 | 78 |
| Bodi Rascon L 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.55 | 15.4% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .271 | 5.56 | 15.7% | 3.9% | 143 | +1.01 | 4.55 | 218 | 77 |
| Steven Pérez L 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.56 | 18.3% | 11.4% | 2.8% | .305 | 5.01 | 20.2% | 5.6% | 116 | +0.45 | 3.80 | 329 | 77 |
| Raúl Alcantara L 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.46 | 19.6% | 12.8% | 2.5% | .295 | 4.64 | 19.0% | 4.2% | 229 | +0.18 | 3.82 | 396 | 76 |
| Antonio Jimenez L 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.40 | 23.1% | 8.8% | 2.1% | .292 | 4.34 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 248 | +0.94 | 3.31 | 422 | 76 |
| Jacob Lopez L 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.66 | 24.3% | 7.9% | 2.9% | .302 | 3.58 | 30.4% | 21.6% | 55 | -0.08 | 3.50 | 478 | 75 |
| Keyshawn Askew L 2028 · 3.37 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.37 | 25.6% | 12.2% | 1.6% | .274 | 3.78 | 20.7% | 5.5% | 196 | +0.41 | 3.37 | 262 | 75 |
| Rafael Marcano L 2025 · 3.59 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.59 | 16.2% | 8.7% | 1.4% | .304 | 4.43 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 117 | +0.84 | 3.38 | 291 | 74 |
| Bryan Sammons L 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 22 | SP- | 3.60 | 22.7% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .275 | 3.91 | 18.4% | 8.4% | 228 | +0.31 | 3.53 | 688 | 74 |
| Tommy Sommer L 2028 · 4.59 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.59 | 23.9% | 9.3% | 4.2% | .196 | 5.30 | 18.6% | 6.1% | 205 | +0.71 | 4.20 | 230 | 73 |
| Jack Patterson L 2028 · 4.72 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.72 | 14.7% | 8.0% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.08 | 19.4% | 7.9% | 80 | -1.64 | 3.08 | 127 | 73 |
| Jaylen Nowlin L 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.48 | 26.8% | 13.3% | 1.8% | .352 | 5.07 | 19.1% | 6.1% | 254 | +1.59 | 3.48 | 357 | 73 |