Dax Fulton — OGILVIE

Dax Fulton P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 24 LHP 6'7" / 245 lbs AAA peak 0.5 · 2028

2026 ROS PROJECTION82 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 100108vR 116

ERA4.37

FIP4.37

K%19.5%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%6.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 88 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†4550

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p6227.1%

p5523.2%

xwOBA vs

p900.272

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	78	337	84	38	6	95%	3.9	18.6%	13.2%	5.4%	2.3%	4.60	4.48	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	78	337	84	38	6	95%	3.9	24.9%	11.3%	13.6%	1.8%	4.60	3.41	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	118	503	150	42	8	96%	4.9	23.2%	9.5%	13.7%	2.1%	3.80	3.52	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	118	503	150	42	8	96%	4.9	29.8%	8.3%	21.5%	1.6%	3.80	2.51	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	7	6	33	148	39	19	4	86%	4.7	21.3%	14.1%	7.2%	3.0%	5.18	4.72	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	7	6	33	148	39	19	4	86%	4.7	21.3%	14.1%	7.2%	3.0%	5.18	4.72	—
2023	21	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	7	6	33	148	39	19	4	86%	4.7	26.4%	12.8%	13.5%	2.7%	5.18	4.04	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	483	115	58	5	96%	4.5	19.4%	12.8%	6.5%	1.1%	5.38	3.71	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	483	115	58	5	96%	4.5	19.4%	12.8%	6.5%	1.1%	5.38	3.71	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	104	483	115	58	5	96%	4.5	23.8%	12.0%	11.8%	1.0%	5.38	3.19	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			12	0	24	95	22	13	0	0%	2.0	23.2%	13.7%	9.5%	0.0%	3.04	2.89	+0.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	11	82	360	84	50	8	35%	2.7	20.4%	12.9%	7.5%	2.4%	4.48	4.35	—
YTD	24	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	31	11	82	360	84	50	8	35%	2.7	20.4%	12.9%	7.5%	2.4%	4.48	4.35	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	AAA RAW	MIA	19	11	59	265	62	37	8	58%	3.1	23.4%	14.0%	9.4%	3.0%	5.06	4.55	—
2026	24	MLB RAW	MIA	12	0	24	95	22	13	0	0%	2.0	23.2%	13.7%	9.5%	0.0%	3.04	2.88	+0.5
SO FAR	24	MLB RAW	MIA	12	0	24	95	22	13	0	0%	2.0	23.2%	13.7%	9.5%	0.0%	3.04	2.88	+0.5
ROS	24	MLB MLE	MIA	5	0	6	24	5	3	1	0%	1.1	19.5%	13.4%	6.1%	2.2%	4.37	4.37	+0.0
ROS	24	MLB CTX	MIA	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	19.5%	13.4%	6.1%	2.2%	4.37	4.37	+0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	MIA	—	—	88	384	89	53	9	—	—	23.1%	13.9%	9.2%	2.2%	4.47	4.35	+0.5
FULL	24	MLB A+C	MIA	—	—	29	124	89	53	9	—	—	71.6%	43.0%	28.6%	6.9%	13.43	6.28	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	106	450	93	55	9	100%	5.9	20.6%	12.2%	8.4%	2.0%	4.41	4.36	+0.7
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	114	479	100	57	10	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	2.0%	4.36	4.33	+0.8
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	116	489	102	57	10	100%	6.1	20.9%	11.7%	9.3%	2.1%	4.36	4.36	+0.7
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	116	489	102	57	11	100%	6.1	20.8%	11.7%	9.1%	2.3%	4.41	4.44	+0.6
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	18	18	111	467	96	56	11	100%	6.1	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.4%	4.51	4.58	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIA	17	17	104	439	89	54	11	100%	6.1	20.2%	12.2%	8.0%	2.6%	4.66	4.75	+0.2
2027	25	MLB CTX	MIA	17	17	101	426	88	52	8	100%	5.9	20.6%	12.2%	8.4%	2.0%	4.41	4.36	+0.6
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	108	456	95	54	9	100%	6.0	20.9%	11.8%	9.1%	2.0%	4.36	4.33	+0.7
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	110	464	97	54	10	100%	6.1	20.9%	11.7%	9.3%	2.1%	4.36	4.36	+0.7
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	110	464	97	54	10	100%	6.1	20.8%	11.7%	9.1%	2.3%	4.41	4.44	+0.6
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	18	18	105	443	91	53	11	100%	5.8	20.6%	11.9%	8.7%	2.4%	4.51	4.58	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIA	16	16	99	418	85	51	11	100%	6.2	20.2%	12.2%	8.0%	2.6%	4.66	4.75	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		123	106	662	2791	579	334	60	86%	5.4	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	2.2%	4.40	4.05	+6.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		37	32	200	843	175	101	18	86%	5.4	20.8%	12.0%	8.8%	2.2%	4.40	4.05	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		105	81	416	1831	378	222	37	77%	4.0	20.6%	12.1%	8.5%	2.0%	4.59	4.01	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	39	200	881	182	107	18	77%	4.0	20.6%	12.1%	8.5%	2.0%	4.59	4.01	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dax Fulton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	19.0%	13.5%	2.2%	—	4.35	20.8%	8.9%	336	-0.45	—	—	—
Adam Tulloch L 2023 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	20.3%	14.1%	2.4%	.313	4.62	18.1%	1.5%	150	+0.11	4.24	246	87
Nate Peterson L 2023 · 4.46 FIP	23	SP-	4.46	18.4%	11.4%	2.7%	.284	5.04	17.2%	5.3%	241	+0.58	4.27	315	87
Jimmy Robbins L 2022 · 3.85 FIP	24	SP-	3.85	23.3%	11.3%	2.3%	.286	4.83	17.9%	2.7%	99	+0.98	3.85	176	85
Dante Biasi L 2022 · 4.91 FIP	24	SP-	4.91	18.7%	15.9%	2.5%	.288	6.65	20.1%	1.7%	69	+1.74	4.91	224	83
Jared Beck L 2023 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	21.1%	15.9%	1.5%	.338	6.15	20.1%	-8.4%	82	+2.00	4.15	158	83
Dominic Perachi L 2023 · 5.19 FIP	22	SP-	5.19	17.5%	13.9%	3.3%	.324	3.80	17.1%	6.8%	186	-1.39	3.33	277	78
Hayden Wynja L 2023 · 4.74 FIP	24	SP-	4.74	20.5%	10.5%	3.7%	.315	4.79	18.0%	7.5%	56	+0.05	4.74	154	77
Bryan Radziewski L 2015 · 4.15 FIP	23	SP-	4.15	16.4%	10.5%	2.0%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.15	106	76
Cody Reed L 2017 · 4.30 FIP	24	SP-	4.30	19.1%	14.3%	1.8%	.301	3.86	22.0%	13.8%	181	-0.44	2.90	572	76
A.J. Block L 2021 · 3.72 FIP	23	SP-	3.72	22.8%	10.0%	2.3%	.262	5.74	20.1%	8.4%	51	+2.02	3.65	203	76
Brian Holmes L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	24	SP-	4.32	21.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.333	4.78	17.3%	8.0%	104	+0.46	3.60	205	75
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	75
Chipper Smith L 2015 · 3.81 FIP	25	SP-	3.81	15.6%	9.5%	1.5%	.321	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	109	74
Seth Lonsway L 2023 · 5.20 FIP	24	SP-	5.20	13.8%	15.3%	2.4%	.317	4.17	15.2%	4.4%	313	-1.03	3.35	498	74
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	74
Christian MacLeod L 2023 · 4.52 FIP	23	SP	4.52	16.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.312	4.60	19.5%	5.2%	212	+0.08	3.90	277	74
Justin Marks L 2015 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	15.4%	10.5%	2.7%	.323	3.88	19.0%	9.1%	216	-0.72	3.83	324	74
Jeremy Wu-Yelland L 2021 · 4.44 FIP	22	SP	4.44	19.6%	14.6%	2.1%	.266	3.90	20.3%	3.7%	33	-0.54	2.93	175	74
Garrett Schoenle L 2022 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	21.4%	10.8%	3.5%	.263	4.26	20.8%	9.6%	219	-0.34	2.32	359	73
Scott DeCecco L 2015 · 4.55 FIP	24	SP-	4.55	14.5%	11.5%	2.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.55	125	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.7	105	20.5%	12.1%	0.86	4.48
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04