Dax Fulton — OGILVIE

Dax Fulton P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

+0.3 WAR

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 24 LHP 6'7" / 245 lbs AAA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 1.4 · 2028

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%21.1%

BB%11.6%

K-BB%9.4%

IP94

trajectory · 10 yrs

1.4peak

2028

K†5050

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2021	19	A+	Beloit Snappers	20	19	78	337	84	38	6	18.6%	13.2%	2.3%	4.60	4.49	+0.6
2022	20	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	24	23	118	503	150	42	8	23.2%	9.5%	2.2%	3.80	3.54	+2.4
2023	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	7	6	33	148	39	19	4	21.3%	14.1%	3.0%	5.18	4.71	+0.1
2025	23	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	23	22	104	483	115	58	5	19.6%	13.1%	1.2%	5.38	3.74	+1.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	24	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	4	3	13	59	19	7	1	28.3%	12.5%	1.9%	6.23	3.31	+0.2
ROS	24	MLB	MIA	37	—	37	158	33	18	4	21.1%	11.6%	2.2%	4.40	4.40	+0.2
2026 Total	24	MLB	MIA	—	—	50	217	52	25	5	24.1%	11.7%	2.1%	4.87	4.12	+0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	25	MLB	MIA	19	19	107	451	97	48	10	21.6%	10.6%	2.3%	4.31	4.26	+1.3
2028	26	MLB	MIA	21	21	114	480	105	50	11	21.8%	10.4%	2.3%	4.27	4.24	+1.4
2029	27	MLB	MIA	21	21	117	494	108	51	12	21.8%	10.2%	2.4%	4.26	4.25	+1.4
2030	28	MLB	MIA	21	21	117	494	108	51	12	21.8%	10.2%	2.4%	4.27	4.27	+1.4
2031	29	MLB	MIA	21	21	114	483	105	50	12	21.6%	10.3%	2.5%	4.30	4.32	+1.3
2032	30	MLB	MIA	20	20	111	469	101	49	12	21.4%	10.4%	2.5%	4.35	4.38	+1.2
2033	31	MLB	MIA	19	19	107	453	96	48	12	21.2%	10.5%	2.6%	4.41	4.46	+1.0
2034	32	MLB	MIA	19	19	103	434	91	46	12	20.9%	10.7%	2.7%	4.49	4.54	+0.9
2035	33	MLB	MIA	18	18	98	415	86	45	12	20.6%	10.9%	2.8%	4.58	4.64	+0.7
2036	34	MLB	MIA	17	17	93	394	80	44	11	20.3%	11.1%	2.9%	4.68	4.75	+0.5
2037	35	MLB	MIA	16	16	88	372	74	42	11	19.9%	11.3%	3.0%	4.79	4.87	+0.3
2038	36	MLB	MIA	15	15	82	347	68	40	11	19.5%	11.6%	3.1%	4.92	5.01	+0.1
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			78	73	346	1530	322	184	30	21.1%	12.0%	1.9%	4.68	3.92	+5.4
/ 200 IP	—			45	42	200	884	186	106	17	21.1%	12.0%	1.9%	4.68	3.92	+3.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dax Fulton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	21.1%	11.6%	2.2%	—	4.25	21.7%	11.3%	338	-0.15	—	—	—
Gabriel Sequeira L 2026 · 4.65 FIP	24	SU	4.65	19.3%	13.1%	2.8%	.294	3.59	21.4%	10.0%	63	-1.06	2.63	160	92
John Beller L 2026 · 4.21 FIP	24	SU	4.21	21.6%	14.2%	2.1%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	170	88
Jared Tobey L 2025 · 3.97 FIP	23	SU	3.97	21.0%	12.1%	2.0%	.320	5.44	22.4%	8.2%	73	+1.47	3.97	158	87
José Manuel Fernández L 2026 · 4.17 FIP	24	SU	4.17	18.1%	12.3%	1.9%	.345	4.93	17.5%	6.6%	121	+0.76	3.35	263	87
Mitchell Tyranski L 2027 · 5.18 FIP	25	SU	5.18	20.4%	13.6%	3.8%	.269	4.08	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.10	3.46	145	86
Fred Schlichtholz L 2025 · 4.29 FIP	23	SU	4.29	22.5%	12.8%	2.7%	.368	4.12	18.5%	8.4%	80	-0.17	3.52	175	85
Brian Moran L 2028 · 4.53 FIP	26	SU	4.53	17.7%	14.1%	2.1%	.318	2.78	25.0%	17.4%	80	-1.75	1.81	421	85
Jeff Singer L 2026 · 3.64 FIP	24	SU	3.64	21.5%	11.9%	1.5%	.266	2.92	24.3%	14.2%	115	-0.72	2.91	292	85
Brian Marconi L 2026 · 3.91 FIP	24	SU	3.91	25.3%	12.3%	2.5%	.265	5.03	20.3%	2.1%	57	+1.12	3.91	101	85
Keylan Killgore L 2024 · 4.24 FIP	22	SW	4.24	20.7%	12.7%	2.3%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	161	85
Andrew Walling L 2026 · 4.07 FIP	24	SW	4.07	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.14	20.1%	9.2%	42	-0.93	3.14	151	84
Kelly Secrest L 2026 · 4.43 FIP	24	SW	4.43	18.6%	13.7%	2.1%	.267	3.46	20.8%	10.4%	38	-0.97	3.11	151	84
Evan Shawver L 2026 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	19.4%	15.3%	1.3%	.258	4.44	18.7%	8.3%	53	+0.35	4.09	219	83
Jose Molina L 2026 · 3.63 FIP	24	SW	3.63	18.6%	11.8%	1.1%	.313	4.17	14.4%	5.5%	83	+0.54	3.63	144	83
Hunter Schryver L 2026 · 3.77 FIP	24	SW	3.77	19.2%	11.2%	1.6%	.335	4.51	19.5%	6.0%	80	+0.74	3.58	206	83
Colton Johnson L 2028 · 3.91 FIP	26	SW	3.91	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.62	3.91	106	83
Daniel Stumpf L 2026 · 4.26 FIP	24	SW	4.26	20.8%	11.5%	2.6%	.268	3.50	22.5%	15.3%	123	-0.76	1.84	238	83
Brendan Nail L 2025 · 4.87 FIP	23	SU	4.87	23.8%	16.4%	3.1%	.305	3.85	26.2%	15.2%	87	-1.02	3.49	165	83
Trey Cumbie L 2025 · 3.43 FIP	23	SW	3.43	22.5%	12.6%	1.2%	.318	4.79	24.4%	8.7%	91	+1.36	3.43	152	83
Will Mabrey L 2025 · 4.29 FIP	23	SU	4.29	19.2%	12.2%	2.3%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	112	83

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.4	$12M	+$11M
2029	Arb-1	$0.8M	+1.4	$12M	+$11M
2030	Arb-2	$0.9M	+1.4	$13M	+$12M
2031	Arb-3	$2M	+1.3	$12M	+$10M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$3M	+1.2	$11M	+$8M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$4M	+1.0	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$13M		$70M	+$58M