Dax Fulton

P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 25 LHP 6'7" / 245 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

AAARP40-MANROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	AAMIA	7	6	33	5.18	4.04	26.4%	12.8%	—	K 21.3% · BB 14.1% · FIP 4.72
2025	23	MIX2 levels	23	22	104	5.38	3.19	23.8%	12.0%	—	K 19.5% · BB 12.8% · FIP 3.70
2026	24	MIX2 levels	35	11	87	4.64	4.14	23.5%	13.4%	0.4	K 21.3% · BB 12.5% · FIP 4.28
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIA	8	8	47	4.50	4.68	21.6%	13.3%	0.4
2028PROJ83% MLB	26	MLBMIA	11	11	64	4.55	4.62	21.9%	12.7%	0.6
2029PROJ87% MLB	27	MLBMIA	10	10	62	4.58	4.63	21.9%	12.4%	0.6

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.4 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

xwOBA vs64

FB Velo60

K%59

Form3.29 ERA (proj 4.50) · K 26.2% (proj 21.6%) · BB 8.2% (proj 13.3%) ▲▲ last 60d · 14 IP through Oct 27

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 1.6, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 92%

CompsBrad Mills (age 25) · Erik Rivera (age 23) · Jason Blanchard (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.50

FIP4.68

K%21.6%

BB%13.3%

K-BB%8.4%

Proj IP65

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p6026.8%

p5923.8%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2021	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	78	337	84	38	6	95%	3.9	18.6%	13.2%	5.4%	2.3%	4.60	4.48	—
2021	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	78	337	84	38	6	95%	3.9	24.9%	11.3%	13.6%	1.8%	4.60	3.41	—
2022	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	23	118	503	150	42	8	96%	4.9	23.2%	9.5%	13.7%	2.1%	3.80	3.52	—
2022	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	23	118	503	150	42	8	96%	4.9	29.8%	8.3%	21.5%	1.6%	3.80	2.51	—
2023	21	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	7	6	33	148	39	19	4	86%	4.7	21.3%	14.1%	7.2%	3.0%	5.18	4.72	—
2023	21	AA RAW	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	7	6	33	148	39	19	4	86%	4.7	26.4%	12.8%	13.5%	2.7%	5.18	4.04	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	483	115	58	5	96%	4.5	19.5%	12.8%	6.6%	1.1%	5.38	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	104	483	115	58	5	96%	4.5	19.5%	12.8%	6.6%	1.1%	5.38	3.70	—
2025	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	104	483	115	58	5	96%	4.5	23.8%	12.0%	11.8%	1.0%	5.38	3.19	—
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	11	87	387	91	52	9	31%	2.5	21.3%	12.5%	8.8%	2.5%	4.64	4.28	+0.3
2026	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	11	87	387	91	52	9	31%	2.5	21.3%	12.5%	8.8%	2.5%	4.64	4.28	+0.3
2026	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	11	87	387	91	52	9	31%	2.5	23.5%	13.4%	10.1%	2.3%	4.64	4.14	+0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			16	0	29	122	29	15	1	0%	1.8	23.8%	12.3%	11.5%	0.8%	3.77	3.10	+0.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIA	8	8	47	198	43	26	5	100%	5.9	21.6%	13.3%	8.4%	2.5%	4.50	4.68	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIA	13	13	78	327	72	41	8	100%	6.0	21.9%	12.7%	9.2%	2.5%	4.55	4.62	+0.7
2029	27	MLB MLE	MIA	12	12	71	299	65	37	8	100%	5.9	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	2.6%	4.58	4.63	+0.6
2030	28	MLB MLE	MIA	11	11	67	283	62	35	8	100%	6.1	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	2.7%	4.64	4.69	+0.5
2031	29	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	61	258	55	32	7	100%	6.1	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.76	4.84	+0.4
2032	30	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	55	232	47	29	7	100%	6.1	20.5%	12.7%	7.8%	3.1%	4.93	5.05	+0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIA	11	11	64	270	59	34	7	100%	5.8	21.9%	12.7%	9.2%	2.5%	4.55	4.62	+0.6
2029	27	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	62	262	57	32	7	100%	6.2	21.9%	12.4%	9.5%	2.6%	4.58	4.63	+0.6
2030	28	MLB CTX	MIA	10	10	60	253	55	31	7	100%	6.0	21.8%	12.3%	9.5%	2.7%	4.64	4.69	+0.5
2031	29	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	56	236	50	29	7	100%	6.2	21.2%	12.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.76	4.84	+0.4
2032	30	MLB CTX	MIA	8	8	51	215	44	27	7	100%	6.4	20.5%	12.7%	7.8%	3.1%	4.93	5.05	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		65	49	322	1360	295	169	35	75%	5.0	21.7%	12.5%	9.2%	2.6%	4.60	4.26	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	30	200	845	183	105	22	75%	5.0	21.7%	12.5%	9.2%	2.6%	4.60	4.26	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		109	81	421	1858	387	224	38	74%	3.9	20.9%	12.0%	8.8%	2.1%	4.62	4.00	+3.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		52	39	200	883	184	106	18	74%	3.9	20.9%	12.0%	8.8%	2.1%	4.62	4.00	+1.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 59 IPFIP 4.55 → 4.82 (+0.27)K% 23.4% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	23.40%	—	×0.860	20.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.96%	—	×0.900	12.57%
HR / BF /BF	3.02%	÷1.000	×1.100	3.32%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 4.55 → 4.82, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 87 IPFIP 3.31 → 3.91 (+0.60)K% 24.0% → 19.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.00%	—	×0.810	19.44%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.25%	—	×1.100	13.48%
HR / BF /BF	1.25%	÷1.103	×1.200	1.36%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 121).

Result: FIP 3.31 → 3.91, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 16 IPFIP 2.54 → 2.67 (+0.13)K% 22.9% → 19.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.89%	—	×0.860	19.69%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.84%	—	×0.900	9.76%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.903	×1.100	0.00%

Result: FIP 2.54 → 2.67, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 33 IPFIP 3.98 → 4.72 (+0.73)K% 26.4% → 21.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.35%	—	×0.810	21.34%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	12.84%	—	×1.100	14.12%
HR / BF /BF	2.70%	÷1.091	×1.200	2.97%

Result: FIP 3.98 → 4.72, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Beloit Sky Carp · 97 IPFIP 2.53 → 3.56 (+1.03)K% 28.4% → 21.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.37%	—	×0.770	21.84%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.27%	—	×1.150	9.52%
HR / BF /BF	1.42%	÷0.885	×1.250	2.00%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 2.53 → 3.56, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPensacola Blue Wahoos · 21 IPFIP 2.41 → 3.33 (+0.91)K% 37.5% → 30.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	37.50%	—	×0.810	30.38%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	8.75%	—	×1.100	9.62%
HR / BF /BF	2.50%	÷1.048	×1.200	2.86%

Result: FIP 2.41 → 3.33, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AJupiter Hammerheads · 59 IPFIP 3.05 → 4.20 (+1.15)K% 26.3% → 19.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.29%	—	×0.740	19.46%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	11.95%	—	×1.180	14.10%
HR / BF /BF	1.20%	÷0.891	×1.300	1.74%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 78).

Result: FIP 3.05 → 4.20, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Beloit Snappers · 20 IPFIP 4.43 → 5.31 (+0.88)K% 20.9% → 16.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	20.93%	—	×0.770	16.12%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.30%	—	×1.150	10.70%
HR / BF /BF	3.49%	÷1.082	×1.250	4.03%

Result: FIP 4.43 → 5.31, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dax Fulton (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.68	21.6%	13.3%	2.5%	—	4.65	21.8%	9.4%	215	-0.03	—	—	—
Brad Mills L 2010 · 4.22 FIP	25	SW	4.22	18.4%	12.2%	2.0%	.273	5.37	19.8%	7.7%	18	+1.15	4.22	243	79
Erik Rivera L 2024 · 5.71 FIP	23	SP-	5.71	19.0%	14.6%	4.3%	.255	4.74	23.9%	6.3%	106	-0.97	4.42	141	77
Jason Blanchard L 2022 · 4.02 FIP	25	SP-	4.02	24.8%	14.2%	2.2%	.382	3.81	21.6%	10.9%	156	-0.21	2.44	171	75
Hayden Mullins L 2024 · 4.39 FIP	23	SP-	4.39	23.4%	12.4%	3.1%	.288	3.69	25.5%	11.8%	194	-0.70	3.54	283	74
Mark Manfredi Sr. L 2024 · 4.60 FIP	24	SW	4.60	22.0%	14.9%	2.7%	.289	3.22	25.4%	11.6%	128	-1.38	2.91	204	73
Caden Grice L 2024 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	15.7%	2.2%	.282	5.05	17.9%	2.3%	83	+0.72	4.33	133	73
Will Johnston L 2024 · 3.94 FIP	23	SP-	3.94	24.8%	11.6%	2.7%	.290	4.56	22.9%	7.5%	104	+0.62	3.94	195	72
John Koronka L 2005 · 4.77 FIP	25	SP-	4.77	13.2%	10.5%	2.6%	.304	4.81	10.5%	2.2%	135	+0.04	3.99	151	72
Jimmy Robbins L 2023 · 4.69 FIP	25	SP-	4.69	17.8%	15.2%	2.1%	.290	5.73	19.6%	3.8%	13	+1.04	3.85	176	71
Dan Meyer L 2007 · 4.76 FIP	26	SP-	4.76	13.9%	11.4%	2.5%	.316	4.35	20.6%	11.8%	86	-0.41	3.73	112	71
Hayden Wynja L 2024 · 4.79 FIP	25	SP-	4.79	18.0%	10.5%	3.4%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	4.74	154	71
J.A. Happ L 2008 · 3.90 FIP	25	SP-	3.90	18.8%	9.4%	2.2%	.260	4.38	18.4%	8.3%	410	+0.48	3.37	1,890	71
Cory Luebke L 2010 · 4.21 FIP	25	SP-	4.21	23.7%	7.9%	3.9%	.286	2.84	25.9%	18.7%	171	-1.37	2.80	216	71
Logan Darnell L 2014 · 4.78 FIP	25	SP-	4.78	19.6%	7.1%	4.4%	.338	4.10	13.4%	6.1%	262	-0.68	3.16	454	70
Hunter Barco L 2024 · 3.61 FIP	23	SP	3.61	23.4%	10.0%	2.2%	.275	3.72	21.1%	10.0%	195	+0.11	3.29	257	70
Connor Oliver L 2024 · 4.34 FIP	23	SW	4.34	17.3%	12.1%	2.1%	.314	6.07	19.2%	3.4%	165	+1.73	4.34	244	69
Edgar Barclay L 2023 · 4.67 FIP	25	SW	4.67	24.2%	12.1%	3.8%	.307	5.54	16.2%	6.1%	157	+0.87	2.06	402	69
Lael Lockhart L 2023 · 4.29 FIP	25	SW	4.29	22.6%	12.9%	2.7%	.302	4.90	20.1%	9.3%	307	+0.61	3.59	520	69
Matt Walker L 2023 · 4.73 FIP	25	SP-	4.73	12.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.21	156	69
Matt Stalcup L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	25	SW	3.62	16.2%	9.7%	1.2%	.266	6.20	11.5%	-1.2%	56	+2.58	3.62	145	68

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	61	21.7%	12.6%	0.99	4.59
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Curt Leskanic ('04)	3.6	65	20.6%	11.6%	1.01	4.36
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*