Dax Fulton
P
Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp
Age 24
LHP
6'7" / 245 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2031
peak 1.0 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION57 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 101111vR 120
ERA4.44
FIP4.44
K%19.3%
BB%13.6%
K-BB%5.7%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 117 IP
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 78 | 337 | 84 | 38 | 6 | 95% | 3.9 | 18.6% | 13.2% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 4.60 | 4.54 | — |
| 2021 | 19 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 78 | 337 | 84 | 38 | 6 | 95% | 3.9 | 24.9% | 11.3% | 13.6% | 1.8% | 4.60 | 3.41 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 118 | 503 | 150 | 42 | 8 | 96% | 4.9 | 23.2% | 9.5% | 13.7% | 2.4% | 3.80 | 3.65 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 23 | 118 | 503 | 150 | 42 | 8 | 96% | 4.9 | 29.8% | 8.3% | 21.5% | 1.6% | 3.80 | 2.51 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 7 | 6 | 33 | 148 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 86% | 4.7 | 21.3% | 14.1% | 7.2% | 2.7% | 5.18 | 4.59 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 7 | 6 | 33 | 148 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 86% | 4.7 | 26.4% | 12.8% | 13.5% | 2.7% | 5.18 | 4.04 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 104 | 483 | 115 | 58 | 5 | 96% | 4.5 | 19.6% | 13.1% | 6.4% | 1.0% | 5.38 | 3.68 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 22 | 104 | 483 | 115 | 58 | 5 | 96% | 4.5 | 23.8% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 1.0% | 5.38 | 3.19 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 17 | 11 | 57 | 252 | 56 | 33 | 8 | 65% | 3.3 | 19.5% | 13.9% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 5.56 | 5.36 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 60 | 254 | 49 | 35 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.3% | 13.6% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 60 | 253 | 49 | 34 | 6 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.3% | 13.6% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 4.41 | 4.41 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 117 | 506 | 105 | 68 | 14 | — | — | 20.7% | 13.3% | 7.4% | 2.7% | 4.98 | 4.89 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 24 | MLB | MIA | — | — | 67 | 284 | 105 | 68 | 14 | — | — | 37.0% | 23.8% | 13.2% | 4.8% | 8.63 | 5.62 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 12 | 12 | 68 | 287 | 58 | 35 | 6 | 100% | 5.7 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 4.54 | 4.49 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 68 | 287 | 60 | 34 | 6 | 100% | 6.2 | 20.7% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 4.48 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 67 | 283 | 59 | 34 | 7 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 2.3% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 56 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.3% | 12.2% | 8.1% | 2.1% | 4.51 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 65 | 274 | 57 | 33 | 6 | 100% | 5.9 | 20.7% | 11.9% | 8.8% | 2.2% | 4.45 | 4.42 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | MIA | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 56 | 32 | 6 | 100% | 5.8 | 20.9% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 2.2% | 4.45 | 4.45 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 47 | 44 | 260 | 1094 | 223 | 135 | 23 | 94% | 5.5 | 20.4% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 4.40 | 4.11 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 36 | 34 | 200 | 842 | 172 | 104 | 18 | 94% | 5.5 | 20.4% | 12.4% | 8.0% | 2.1% | 4.40 | 4.11 | +3.0 | ||
| Career | — | 91 | 81 | 390 | 1723 | 355 | 212 | 39 | 89% | 4.3 | 20.6% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 4.75 | 4.16 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 47 | 42 | 200 | 884 | 182 | 109 | 20 | 89% | 4.3 | 20.6% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 4.75 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dax Fulton (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 19.2% | 13.6% | 2.2% | — | 4.47 | 20.6% | 8.6% | 203 | -0.30 | — | — | — |
| Caden Grice L 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.28 | 17.3% | 15.5% | 3.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 105 | 81 |
| Tate Kuehner L 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.73 | 21.5% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .295 | 3.97 | 18.7% | 7.0% | 40 | +0.24 | 3.73 | 245 | 81 |
| Dante Biasi L 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.06 | 18.7% | 15.9% | 2.8% | .288 | 7.16 | 20.1% | 1.7% | 69 | +2.10 | 4.88 | 224 | 81 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2025 · 4.19 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.19 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 106 | 80 |
| Jimmy Robbins L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 24 | SP- | 3.89 | 23.3% | 11.3% | 2.4% | .286 | 4.89 | 18.1% | 2.5% | 99 | +1.00 | 3.89 | 176 | 79 |
| Cole Reynolds L 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SP- | 5.26 | 17.3% | 16.9% | 2.7% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.81 | 108 | 79 |
| Jack Choate L 2026 · 4.11 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.11 | 22.4% | 12.6% | 2.4% | .317 | 3.84 | 24.2% | 6.1% | 32 | -0.27 | 2.75 | 315 | 79 |
| Brian Holmes L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.25 | 21.0% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .333 | 4.75 | 17.3% | 8.0% | 104 | +0.50 | 3.42 | 205 | 79 |
| Rio Britton L 2025 · 4.77 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.77 | 22.0% | 15.8% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.19 | 128 | 78 |
| Christian MacLeod L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.83 | 21.5% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .269 | 4.13 | 20.5% | 7.4% | 96 | -0.70 | 3.84 | 249 | 78 |
| Brett Adcock L 2025 · 5.22 FIP | 23 | SP | 5.22 | 17.4% | 13.6% | 3.4% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 301 | 78 |
| Chipper Smith L 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.83 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 1.5% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 109 | 77 |
| Zach Thornton L 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 20.9% | 10.1% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.95 | 221 | 77 |
| Ryan Ramsey L 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.31 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .326 | 5.09 | 17.5% | 5.5% | 76 | +0.78 | 2.69 | 318 | 77 |
| Matt Portland L 2026 · 4.64 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.64 | 17.4% | 11.0% | 2.9% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.61 | 143 | 77 |
| Cameron Bishop L 2025 · 4.52 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.52 | 16.6% | 13.9% | 1.9% | .316 | 3.28 | 23.8% | 11.5% | 66 | -1.24 | 2.86 | 305 | 77 |
| Michel Gelabert L 2024 · 4.58 FIP | 22 | SP | 4.58 | 18.7% | 12.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.36 | 107 | 77 |
| A.J. Block L 2025 · 3.68 FIP | 23 | SP- | 3.68 | 22.8% | 10.0% | 2.3% | .262 | 5.86 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 51 | +2.18 | 3.64 | 203 | 77 |
| Hayden Mullins L 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 24 | SP | 3.72 | 24.0% | 13.7% | 1.7% | .240 | 4.62 | 27.5% | 11.6% | 49 | +0.90 | 3.72 | 239 | 77 |
| Jake Zokan L 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SP | 5.12 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.80 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.32 | 1.80 | 120 | 75 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 68 | 20.3% | 12.4% | 0.85 | 4.57 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |