Ismael Mejia

C DSL Arizona Red

Age 19 R/R 6'1" / 180 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#950ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Arizona B…	59	.163/.305/.204	0	3	9	—	.115/.220/.135
2026	18	ROKDSL Arizona R…	153	.294/.418/.397	1	4	59	—	.191/.307/.237
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBARI	263	.223/.297/.304	2	4	72	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBARI	45	.234/.308/.330	0	1	77	0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBARI	112	.237/.311/.340	1	2	81	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%76

K%75

wOBA71

wRC+61

ISO43

Whiff%43

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsIsiah Kiner-Falefa (age 19) · Cooper Pratt (age 19) · Rubén Tejada (age 18)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 79 proj PA

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .295 / .301

PA79

HR1

K%25

BB%8

ISO80

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$29M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED53

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.1M
2037	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$3M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$7M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	59	49	8	2	0	0	10	9	0	3	0	163	305	204	509	41	200	15	17	254	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	153	126	37	10	0	1	17	25	10	4	2	294	418	397	815	103	360	16	11	377	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	59	52	6	1	0	0	7	11	0	3	0	115	220	135	355	19	144	19	12	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	153	131	25	6	0	0	12	30	10	4	2	191	307	237	544	46	248	20	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	59	52	6	1	0	0	7	11	0	3	0	115	220	135	355	19	146	19	12	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	59	49	8	2	0	0	10	9	0	3	0	163	305	204	509	41	200	15	17	254	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	153	131	25	6	0	0	12	30	10	4	2	191	307	237	544	46	248	20	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	—	153	126	37	10	0	1	17	25	10	4	2	294	418	397	815	103	360	16	11	377	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	59	52	6	1	0	0	7	11	0	3	0	115	220	135	355	19	144	19	12	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	153	130	25	6	0	0	12	30	10	4	2	192	307	238	546	46	248	20	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	59	52	6	1	0	0	7	11	0	3	0	115	220	135	355	19	144	19	12	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	153	130	25	6	0	0	12	30	10	4	2	192	307	238	546	46	248	20	8	256	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	263	236	52	10	1	2	20	65	5	4	1	223	297	304	601	80	296	25	8	275	72	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	132	119	27	5	1	1	10	32	2	3	1	227	302	316	617	89	297	24	8	282	77	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	ARI	48%	232	208	48	9	1	3	18	56	4	5	1	230	305	326	631	96	298	24	8	287	81	-5	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2030	22	MLB MLE	ARI	54%	342	306	72	14	2	5	27	82	6	7	2	232	308	335	642	102	299	24	8	292	84	-7	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.8
2031	23	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	419	375	87	17	2	6	33	99	8	9	3	234	309	342	651	108	299	24	8	295	86	-7	+1	+0	+7	+9	1.0
2032	24	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	445	399	93	18	2	7	35	105	8	9	3	236	311	348	659	112	300	24	8	298	88	-6	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.2
2033	25	MLB MLE	ARI	57%	445	399	93	18	2	7	35	105	8	9	3	236	311	349	661	113	300	24	8	299	88	-6	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	ARI	56%	445	399	93	18	2	7	35	105	8	9	3	236	311	350	661	114	299	24	8	299	88	-6	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.2
2035	27	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	445	398	93	18	2	7	36	106	8	9	3	235	310	347	657	112	299	24	8	297	87	-7	+1	+0	+8	+10	1.2
2036	28	MLB MLE	ARI	55%	445	399	93	18	2	7	35	107	8	8	3	233	308	342	651	109	298	24	8	295	86	-8	+0	-1	+8	+10	1.0
2037	29	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	445	399	92	17	2	7	35	108	8	8	3	231	306	336	642	105	297	24	8	291	83	-9	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.8
2038	30	MLB MLE	ARI	53%	445	400	91	17	2	6	35	109	7	7	4	228	302	328	630	100	295	24	8	286	80	-11	-0	-2	+8	+10	0.5
2039	31	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	426	383	85	16	2	5	33	106	7	6	4	224	297	318	615	94	292	25	8	280	76	-12	-0	-3	+8	+9	0.1
2040	32	MLB MLE	ARI	52%	407	367	81	15	2	5	31	103	6	5	7	219	291	306	597	87	288	25	8	273	71	-14	-2	-4	+7	+9	-0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	45	41	9	2	0	0	3	11	1	1	0	234	308	330	638	96	308	24	7	290	77	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	ARI	48%	112	100	24	5	1	1	9	27	2	2	1	237	311	340	651	103	309	24	8	295	81	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	ARI	54%	185	166	39	8	1	2	14	44	3	4	1	239	314	348	662	109	309	24	8	299	84	-4	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.4
2031	23	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	237	212	51	11	2	3	19	56	4	5	2	241	316	355	671	113	310	24	8	303	86	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2032	24	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	252	225	55	11	2	4	20	59	5	5	2	243	317	361	678	118	310	23	8	305	88	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2033	25	MLB CTX	ARI	57%	251	225	55	11	2	4	20	59	4	5	2	243	318	362	680	119	310	24	8	306	88	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2034	26	MLB CTX	ARI	56%	251	225	55	11	2	4	20	59	4	5	2	243	318	362	680	119	310	24	8	306	88	-3	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.7
2035	27	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	247	221	54	11	2	4	20	59	4	5	2	242	317	359	676	117	309	24	8	305	87	-4	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	ARI	55%	244	219	53	11	2	4	19	58	4	5	2	240	314	355	669	114	308	24	8	302	86	-4	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	238	213	49	10	1	3	19	58	4	4	2	238	312	348	660	110	307	24	8	298	83	-5	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.4
2038	30	MLB CTX	ARI	53%	234	210	49	10	1	3	18	57	4	4	2	235	308	340	648	105	305	24	8	293	80	-6	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.3
2039	31	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	222	199	46	9	1	3	17	55	4	3	2	230	303	330	633	100	302	25	8	287	76	-6	-0	-1	+4	+5	0.1
2040	32	MLB CTX	ARI	52%	211	190	43	9	1	2	16	54	3	3	4	225	297	317	614	92	298	26	8	280	71	-7	-1	-2	+4	+5	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2729	2446	582	119	18	37	214	656	46	51	24	238	311	347	658	109	309	24	8	299	81	-54	+1	-6	+49	+59	5.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	138	28	4	9	51	156	11	12	6	237	311	345	655	108	306	24	8	299	81	-13	+0	-1	+12	+14	1.2
Career	—	MLE		—	5364	4806	1095	210	24	74	423	1283	99	102	42	228	303	328	631	100	294	24	8	289	81	-104	+3	-10	+92	+112	9.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	132	25	3	9	51	155	12	12	5	227	302	326	628	100	292	24	8	289	81	-13	+0	-1	+12	+14	1.2

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Arizona Red · 153 PAwOBA .368 → .256 (−112)K% 16.3% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.34%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	19.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.11%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.84%
HBP% /PA	6.54%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	4.61%
Singles /BIP	25.74%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.045	×1.008	18.44%
Doubles /BIP	9.90%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.045	×1.008	6.26%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.045	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.99%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.47%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.045.

Result: wOBA .368 → .256; ISO .103 → .063; BABIP .360 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Arizona Black · 59 PAwOBA .249 → .181 (−68)K% 15.3% → 18.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.25%	÷0.991	×1.220	—	—	18.78%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.95%	÷0.984	×0.700	—	×1.022	12.33%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	0.00%
Singles /BIP	15.00%	÷0.988	×0.680	×1.050	×1.022	11.09%
Doubles /BIP	5.00%	÷0.965	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	3.34%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.600	×1.050	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.141	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 98, 2B 93, 3B 92, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .249 → .181; ISO .041 → .028; BABIP .200 → .144. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#3Brian Schneider'00-'12 * career totals — 12 seasons, 3,570 PA	5.4	3,570	67	4	238*	309*	359*	+63	-0	9.0	8.8
/162	664	12	1	+11.7	-0.1	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Buck Rodgers'61-'69 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,353 PA	5.0	3,353	31	17	239*	294*	339*	+60	+0	6.4	6.5
/162	664	6	3	+11.8	+0.0	1.3	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.2	2,810	41	52	232	303	337	+50	+32	7.2	6.3
/162	664	10	12	+11.9	+7.6	1.7	pk7: 5
#5Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
/162	664	7	1	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#6Jake Gibbs'63-'71 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	25	28	244*	299*	362*	+32	+0	5.4	5.4
/162	664	9	10	+11.9	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ismael Mejia (OGILVIE)	19	55→60	30→35	48→53	58	222/295/301	80	296	1	1	25%	8%	72	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2014 · A	19	51→58	34→40	50→55	44	236/285/290	53	305	2	14	22%	6%	64	-1.3	241/294/285	44	301	1	9	19%	6%	67	-1.1	265/312/343	78	301	6	21	14%	5%	87	+0.3
✕Cooper Pratt 2024 · A	19	49→52	37→40	54→55	41	226/288/305	78	332	4	11	31%	6%	70	-0.9	228/299/323	95	293	8	23	23%	8%	78	-0.3	229/306/324	95	284	8	29	21%	9%	81	-0.1
✕Rubén Tejada 2008 · A	18	51→61	38→40	51→50	50	240/318/319	79	291	5	13	18%	8%	85	+0.2	237/292/307	70	286	3	9	17%	6%	72	-0.7	264/320/329	64	312	2	6	15%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	45→55	40→45	49→50	48	215/278/314	99	274	7	9	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/295/327	100	280	6	12	20%	8%	78	-0.3	265/326/372	107	319	9	16	19%	7%	96	+0.8
✕Cristofer Torin 2024 · A	19	46→55	38→40	54→50	54	219/299/292	73	262	5	19	18%	9%	72	-0.7	235/310/323	88	290	7	11	20%	9%	82	+0.0	243/315/341	98	290	8	10	18%	9%	86	+0.3
✕Luisangel Acuña 2021 · A	19	46→56	37→45	51→60	54	217/290/290	73	257	3	13	16%	9%	67	-1.1	237/295/343	106	326	11	30	28%	7%	81	-0.1	250/307/357	107	337	11	39	27%	7%	86	+0.2
✕Jonathan Ornelas 2019 · A	19	46→56	40→45	53→50	44	219/282/318	99	308	7	14	30%	8%	70	-0.8	209/265/301	92	294	7	10	29%	6%	60	-1.6	251/312/338	87	342	8	12	27%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Tim Lopes 2013 · A	19	48→58	37→45	55	47	222/273/314	92	274	2	8	19%	6%	65	-1.2	233/277/307	74	298	3	13	21%	5%	65	-1.2	267/317/348	81	330	3	20	19%	6%	87	+0.3
✕Nacho Alvarez Jr. 2023 · A	20	51→54	39→40	55→50	58	237/332/330	93	293	6	14	20%	12%	93	+0.8	243/319/335	92	311	8	14	23%	8%	88	+0.5	244/321/332	88	312	8	14	22%	8%	87	+0.2
✕Adrián Sugastey 2022 · A	19	51	37→40	49→40	42	244/287/314	70	318	5	5	24%	5%	71	-0.8	222/270/304	82	282	6	3	22%	5%	62	-1.4	225/265/311	86	256	8	3	15%	4%	60	-0.7
✕Christian Arroyo 2014 · A	19	49→58	40→50	49→45	44	233/282/342	109	300	5	6	23%	6%	76	-0.4	240/274/341	101	305	7	4	23%	4%	72	-0.7	254/305/408	153	304	17	7	22%	5%	100	+0.5
✕Derrik Gibson 2010 · A	20	48→56	37→40	56→55	45	224/290/300	76	303	3	16	26%	7%	70	-0.9	206/266/261	55	280	1	18	25%	7%	51	-2.3	246/312/318	73	319	3	11	22%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Juan Fernandez 2018 · A	19	47→57	41→40	48→50	48	226/294/329	103	270	7	6	19%	7%	78	-0.3	206/264/285	79	270	5	4	24%	6%	57	-1.8	239/301/321	82	296	8	9	21%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Ke'Bryan Hayes 2016 · A	19	51→57	35→50	51→50	48	237/305/292	56	305	2	9	22%	7%	73	-0.6	238/293/326	88	307	6	12	23%	6%	76	-0.4	255/311/393	138	311	13	16	21%	7%	99	+1.0
✕Ryan Brett 2011 · A	19	47→57	37→45	54→60	42	219/270/295	76	299	3	17	26%	6%	60	-1.6	240/286/340	100	292	6	24	19%	6%	76	-0.4	266/307/374	108	325	8	30	20%	5%	89	+0.4
✕George Lombard Jr. 2024 · A	19	51→48	39→45	48→55	49	232/311/316	85	335	6	12	30%	10%	81	-0.1	208/291/311	103	304	8	22	31%	9%	74	-0.6	208/297/325	117	296	10	23	30%	10%	77	-0.3
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Diego Velasquez 2024 · A	20	49→59	40	50	46	234/299/328	94	301	7	12	24%	7%	80	-0.2	253/321/334	81	323	4	15	21%	8%	88	+0.5	262/334/335	73	332	3	18	20%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Darell Hernaiz 2021 · A	19	45→55	39→45	52→50	44	212/278/299	87	312	7	9	32%	8%	65	-1.2	240/287/333	93	302	8	17	22%	5%	76	-0.4	268/325/364	96	311	7	12	15%	7%	94	+0.7
✕Luis Santana 2018 · A	19	48	37→45	53→50	53	218/293/303	85	243	3	11	12%	7%	72	-0.7	240/312/325	85	281	5	9	16%	7%	84	+0.1	232/299/348	116	287	12	10	23%	6%	81	-0.0

Ismael Mejia

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps