Adrián Sugastey
C Richmond Flying Squirrels| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AASF | 191 | .210/.243/.304 | 1 | 0 | 34 | — | .198/.228/.280 |
| 2025 | 22 | AASF | 355 | .231/.287/.343 | 8 | 4 | 51 | — | .218/.261/.306 |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA/AA/ROKSF | 265 | .291/.354/.415 | 6 | 2 | 90 | — | .276/.327/.381 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBSF | 3 | .235/.278/.327 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBSF | 69 | .236/.281/.335 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ45% MLB | 26 | MLBSF | 122 | .236/.283/.338 | 2 | 1 | 78 | 0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | — | 163 | 148 | 53 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 358 | 410 | 439 | 849 | 81 | 418 | 16 | 7 | 379 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | San Jose Giants | — | 340 | 300 | 72 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 30 | 53 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 240 | 329 | 333 | 663 | 93 | 277 | 16 | 9 | 306 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | — | 31 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 231 | 333 | 346 | 679 | 115 | 273 | 16 | 13 | 300 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 28 | 26 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 385 | 429 | 423 | 852 | 38 | 400 | 4 | 7 | 387 | 148 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | — | 264 | 248 | 74 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 298 | 336 | 423 | 759 | 125 | 335 | 14 | 5 | 336 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 191 | 181 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 243 | 304 | 547 | 94 | 257 | 20 | 3 | 243 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 355 | 324 | 75 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 39 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 231 | 287 | 343 | 629 | 111 | 239 | 11 | 7 | 280 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA | Sacramento River Cats | — | 95 | 83 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 289 | 359 | 422 | 780 | 133 | 292 | 9 | 8 | 340 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 135 | 120 | 33 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 275 | 331 | 392 | 722 | 117 | 295 | 12 | 6 | 313 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | ROK | ACL Giants | — | 35 | 31 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 355 | 429 | 484 | 912 | 129 | 345 | 3 | 9 | 410 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Orange | — | 163 | 153 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 275 | 311 | 314 | 624 | 39 | 349 | 23 | 4 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | San Jose Giants | — | 340 | 310 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 76 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 203 | 274 | 277 | 551 | 74 | 255 | 22 | 6 | 245 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Orange | — | 31 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 185 | 267 | 296 | 563 | 111 | 216 | 23 | 10 | 226 | 39 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 264 | 251 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 286 | 355 | 641 | 100 | 303 | 19 | 4 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 191 | 182 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 228 | 280 | 508 | 82 | 250 | 24 | 2 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 355 | 330 | 72 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 218 | 261 | 306 | 567 | 88 | 230 | 13 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AAA MLE | Sacramento River Cats | — | 95 | 85 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 282 | 337 | 376 | 713 | 94 | 289 | 12 | 6 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 135 | 122 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 270 | 315 | 377 | 692 | 107 | 284 | 15 | 4 | 292 | 84 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants | — | 35 | 32 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 281 | 343 | 406 | 749 | 125 | 264 | 3 | 6 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Orange | — | 163 | 153 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 275 | 311 | 314 | 624 | 39 | 350 | 23 | 4 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Giants Orange | — | 163 | 148 | 53 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 358 | 410 | 439 | 849 | 81 | 418 | 16 | 7 | 379 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 399 | 364 | 73 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 90 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 201 | 269 | 275 | 544 | 74 | 255 | 23 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 399 | 352 | 88 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 36 | 59 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 250 | 337 | 341 | 678 | 91 | 287 | 15 | 9 | 312 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 264 | 251 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 286 | 355 | 641 | 100 | 303 | 19 | 4 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ RAW | Eugene Emeralds | — | 264 | 248 | 74 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 298 | 336 | 423 | 759 | 125 | 335 | 14 | 5 | 336 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 191 | 182 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 228 | 280 | 508 | 82 | 254 | 24 | 2 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 191 | 181 | 38 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 210 | 243 | 304 | 547 | 94 | 257 | 20 | 3 | 243 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 355 | 330 | 72 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 218 | 261 | 306 | 567 | 88 | 236 | 13 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 355 | 324 | 75 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 39 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 231 | 287 | 343 | 629 | 111 | 239 | 11 | 7 | 280 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 265 | 240 | 66 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 275 | 323 | 379 | 702 | 104 | 295 | 12 | 5 | 300 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 265 | 234 | 68 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 19 | 26 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 291 | 354 | 415 | 769 | 124 | 301 | 10 | 7 | 336 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Giants Orange | — | 163 | 154 | 42 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 273 | 311 | 312 | 622 | 39 | 349 | 23 | 4 | 285 | 79 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 399 | 362 | 73 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 90 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 202 | 269 | 276 | 545 | 75 | 252 | 23 | 6 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | A+ MLE | Eugene Emeralds | — | 264 | 251 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 49 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 255 | 286 | 355 | 641 | 100 | 303 | 19 | 4 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 191 | 182 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 228 | 280 | 508 | 82 | 250 | 24 | 2 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 355 | 333 | 72 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 216 | 261 | 303 | 564 | 87 | 230 | 13 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 265 | 246 | 66 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 268 | 323 | 370 | 693 | 102 | 283 | 12 | 5 | 300 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 191 | 182 | 36 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 198 | 228 | 280 | 508 | 82 | 250 | 24 | 2 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Richmond Flying Squirrels | — | 355 | 333 | 72 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 47 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 216 | 261 | 303 | 564 | 87 | 230 | 13 | 5 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 265 | 246 | 66 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 268 | 323 | 370 | 693 | 102 | 283 | 12 | 5 | 300 | 90 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | SF | 2% | 315 | 294 | 70 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 46 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 238 | 281 | 334 | 616 | 96 | 266 | 15 | 5 | 276 | 73 | -10 | +0 | +0 | +6 | +7 | 0.2 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | SF | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 235 | 278 | 327 | 605 | 92 | 262 | 0 | 0 | 271 | 73 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | SF | 31% | 222 | 207 | 50 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 240 | 285 | 343 | 628 | 103 | 267 | 15 | 5 | 281 | 76 | -6 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | SF | 45% | 273 | 255 | 61 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 240 | 287 | 347 | 634 | 106 | 268 | 15 | 5 | 284 | 78 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | SF | 49% | 294 | 273 | 66 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 47 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 240 | 288 | 347 | 635 | 108 | 268 | 16 | 5 | 284 | 78 | -8 | -0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | 0.4 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB MLE | SF | 52% | 306 | 283 | 68 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 50 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 238 | 287 | 346 | 633 | 107 | 268 | 16 | 6 | 283 | 78 | -8 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB MLE | SF | 52% | 302 | 279 | 67 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 51 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 236 | 286 | 343 | 629 | 106 | 268 | 17 | 6 | 282 | 77 | -8 | -0 | -1 | +5 | +7 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB MLE | SF | 52% | 298 | 277 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 51 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 233 | 282 | 335 | 617 | 102 | 266 | 17 | 6 | 277 | 74 | -9 | -1 | -2 | +5 | +6 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | SF | 31% | 69 | 65 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 236 | 281 | 335 | 616 | 98 | 263 | 14 | 4 | 276 | 76 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +1 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | SF | 45% | 122 | 114 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 236 | 283 | 338 | 622 | 102 | 264 | 16 | 5 | 279 | 78 | -3 | -0 | +0 | +2 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | SF | 49% | 145 | 135 | 31 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 236 | 284 | 339 | 623 | 103 | 265 | 16 | 6 | 279 | 78 | -4 | -0 | +0 | +3 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB CTX | SF | 52% | 158 | 147 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 234 | 284 | 337 | 621 | 103 | 265 | 16 | 6 | 278 | 78 | -4 | -0 | -0 | +3 | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB CTX | SF | 52% | 156 | 145 | 34 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 232 | 282 | 334 | 617 | 102 | 265 | 17 | 6 | 277 | 77 | -4 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB CTX | SF | 52% | 154 | 143 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 229 | 279 | 327 | 606 | 97 | 263 | 18 | 6 | 272 | 74 | -5 | -0 | -1 | +3 | +3 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 804 | 749 | 174 | 31 | 0 | 15 | 44 | 131 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 232 | 280 | 334 | 614 | 101 | 262 | 16 | 5 | 277 | 70 | -22 | -1 | -2 | +14 | +17 | 0.7 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 606 | 140 | 25 | 0 | 12 | 36 | 106 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 231 | 280 | 332 | 612 | 101 | 260 | 16 | 6 | 277 | 70 | -18 | -1 | -2 | +12 | +14 | 0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3501 | 3252 | 768 | 121 | 14 | 55 | 176 | 599 | 36 | 24 | 15 | 236 | 283 | 333 | 616 | 97 | 272 | 17 | 5 | 271 | 70 | -52 | -1 | -4 | +33 | +40 | 1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 142 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 33 | 111 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 235 | 283 | 331 | 614 | 96 | 271 | 17 | 5 | 271 | 70 | -18 | -0 | -1 | +12 | +14 | 0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 135 PAwOBA .312 → .292 (−20)K% 11.9% → 14.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 11.85% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 14.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 4.20% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.48% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 1.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.12% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 22.00% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.860 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 6.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.950 | ×1.013 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.92% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.52% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .312 → .292; ISO .117 → .102; BABIP .295 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAASacramento River Cats · 95 PAwOBA .335 → .312 (−23)K% 9.5% → 11.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.47% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 11.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 6.09% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.04% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.036 | ×1.048 | 25.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.036 | ×1.048 | 2.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.036 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 2.97% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.036.
Result: wOBA .335 → .312; ISO .133 → .106; BABIP .292 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 ROKACL Giants · 35 PAwOBA .399 → .302 (−96)K% 2.9% → 4.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 2.86% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 4.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.955 | 5.08% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.86% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 1.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.955 | 23.49% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 2.29% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.955 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.955 | 2.48% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 19.5 → −4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .399 → .302; ISO .129 → .098; BABIP .345 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 355 PAwOBA .274 → .244 (−30)K% 11.0% → 13.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.99% | ÷1.018 | ×1.220 | — | — | 13.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.76% | ÷0.962 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.28% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.65% | ÷1.004 | ×0.970 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 19.38% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.51% | ÷0.992 | ×0.860 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 3.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.994 | ×1.027 | 0.30% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.81% | ÷1.183 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.90% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 104, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.
Result: wOBA .274 → .244; ISO .111 → .084; BABIP .239 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AARichmond Flying Squirrels · 191 PAwOBA .239 → .219 (−20)K% 19.9% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.90% | ÷1.025 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.62% | ÷0.988 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 1.93% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.57% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 1.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.48% | ÷0.999 | ×0.970 | ×1.016 | ×1.042 | 17.97% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.99% | ÷1.110 | ×0.860 | ×1.016 | ×1.042 | 5.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.40% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×1.016 | ×1.042 | 1.56% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.062 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 0.54% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 122, 3B 80, K 105, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.
Result: wOBA .239 → .219; ISO .094 → .081; BABIP .257 → .250. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Eugene Emeralds · 264 PAwOBA .329 → .281 (−48)K% 14.0% → 18.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.02% | ÷1.021 | ×1.350 | — | — | 18.53% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.92% | ÷0.975 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 3.68% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.38% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.12% | ÷1.047 | ×0.910 | ×1.032 | ×1.027 | 23.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.11% | ÷1.031 | ×0.830 | ×1.032 | ×1.027 | 6.07% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.95% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.032 | ×1.027 | 0.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.90% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 1.50% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 109, 2B 106, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.
Result: wOBA .329 → .281; ISO .125 → .102; BABIP .335 → .303. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ASan Jose Giants · 340 PAwOBA .299 → .245 (−54)K% 15.6% → 22.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.59% | ÷0.943 | ×1.360 | — | — | 22.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.82% | ÷1.055 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.94% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.27% | ÷0.983 | ×0.920 | ×0.971 | ×1.030 | 20.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.45% | ÷0.957 | ×0.830 | ×0.971 | ×1.030 | 3.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×0.971 | ×1.030 | 0.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.063 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.57% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 113, 1B 97, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 89, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.971.
Result: wOBA .299 → .245; ISO .093 → .074; BABIP .277 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Giants Orange · 31 PAwOBA .303 → .226 (−77)K% 16.1% → 22.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.13% | ÷1.018 | ×1.440 | — | — | 22.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.90% | ÷0.970 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 8.21% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷0.987 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.995 | 15.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.76% | ÷0.988 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.41% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .303 → .226; ISO .115 → .084; BABIP .273 → .216. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).