Ali Sánchez

C Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 30 R/R 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA HR +14% Svc 0.911 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

AAA40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	27	AAA/INTL2 orgs	240	.274/.338/.429	4	1	89	—	.186/.247/.286
2024	27	MLBMIA	96	.167/.213/.190	0	2	9	0.3
2025	28	AAA/INTL2 orgs	364	.287/.349/.443	12	1	93	—	.224/.273/.301
2025	28	MLBBOS	23	.217/.217/.304	0	0	32	0.7
2026	29	AAAScranton/Wilk…	147	.227/.327/.375	6	0	55	—	.194/.265/.291
2026	29	MLBNYY	92	.244/.278/.302	1	0	61	0.2
2027PROJ45% MLB	30	MLBNYY	81	.220/.281/.339	2	0	73	0.1
2028PROJ53% MLB	31	MLBNYY	88	.216/.276/.329	2	0	69	-0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 2 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.911First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.6M2031Ext$1M2032Ext$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026

Bat Spd37

Barrel%28

xwOBA10

Avg EV10

Speed10

CompsAustin Wynns (age 30) · Steve Holm (age 30) · Dusty Brown (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7573vR 66

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .281 / .339

PA81

HR2

K%23

BB%6

BABIP271

ISO120

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$0M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 50 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT50

xAVG

100.207

POWER45

Barrel%

285.4

Avg EV

1085.6

Bat Spd

3770.0

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED45

Sprint

1025.2

Platoon Splits2024 · 96 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

—

wRC+

-19

▶▶R

wOBA

140

207

▶▶R

ISO

—

035

—

BABIP

150

268

▶▶R

22.6%

26.2%

◀L

BB%

6.5%

3.1%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2024

Service 0.911 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2014	17	ROK	DSL Mets 1	—	209	175	53	7	0	3	27	31	4	6	6	303	408	394	802	91	352	15	13	363	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK	Kingsport Mets	—	188	173	47	6	0	0	12	28	3	2	0	272	330	306	636	35	324	15	6	295	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	200	182	42	3	0	1	13	26	2	2	3	231	289	264	553	33	263	13	6	254	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+	St. Lucie Mets	—	142	135	37	9	0	2	5	15	0	1	1	274	300	385	685	111	292	11	4	301	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A	Columbia Fireflies	—	205	193	50	11	1	4	10	23	0	1	1	259	296	389	684	130	274	11	5	302	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	29	25	3	1	0	0	3	5	1	0	0	120	241	160	401	40	150	17	10	204	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	65	56	10	4	0	0	5	11	3	0	1	179	281	250	531	71	217	17	8	250	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	294	270	75	13	0	1	23	52	1	1	0	278	337	337	674	59	341	18	8	309	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	49	42	11	2	0	0	6	8	0	0	0	262	354	310	664	48	314	16	12	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA	Memphis Redbirds	—	270	251	69	10	0	4	18	47	0	0	2	275	323	363	686	88	323	17	7	309	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	131	125	38	7	0	2	5	18	0	0	2	304	331	408	739	104	340	14	4	327	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA	Toledo Mud Hens	—	291	252	66	14	0	6	35	77	2	2	0	262	356	389	745	127	351	26	12	337	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	85	77	17	3	0	0	6	13	0	0	0	221	277	260	537	39	258	15	7	244	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA	Reno Aces	—	267	238	74	10	0	11	26	42	0	0	3	311	379	492	870	181	335	16	10	381	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB	Miami Marlins	—	96	84	14	2	0	0	4	24	1	2	1	167	213	190	404	24	230	25	4	177	9	-10	+0	+5	+6	+2	0.3
2024	27	AAA	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	174	155	35	12	0	3	18	35	1	0	0	226	310	361	672	135	274	20	10	305	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	INTL	Venezuela	—	66	64	25	10	0	1	2	9	0	1	1	391	409	594	1.003	203	444	14	3	439	183	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	23	23	5	2	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	217	217	304	522	87	294	26	0	230	32	-2	+0	+1	+7	+0	0.7
2025	28	AAA	Syracuse Mets	—	211	190	52	8	0	6	18	50	1	0	0	274	340	411	750	137	338	24	9	334	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	INTL	Cardenales de Lara	—	153	137	42	7	0	6	12	16	0	1	0	307	362	489	851	182	305	10	8	367	134	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB	New York Yankees	—	92	86	21	2	0	1	1	25	3	0	1	244	278	302	580	58	328	27	1	259	61	-4	-0	+0	+4	+2	0.2
2026	29	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	147	128	29	1	0	6	18	28	1	0	1	227	327	375	702	148	245	19	12	320	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	211	193	40	6	0	1	5	55	4	2	2	207	243	254	496	47	281	26	2	218	34	-17	-0	+6	+17	+5	1.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2014	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	—	209	183	37	5	0	1	19	38	4	6	6	202	291	246	537	44	240	18	9	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	188	178	41	5	0	0	7	40	3	2	0	230	271	258	530	28	288	21	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	200	186	41	3	0	1	9	34	2	2	3	220	264	253	517	32	255	17	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A+ MLE	St. Lucie Mets	—	142	136	34	9	0	2	4	22	0	1	1	250	271	360	632	110	274	15	3	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	205	197	43	9	1	3	6	32	0	1	1	218	241	320	561	102	245	16	3	250	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	65	57	9	3	0	0	4	13	3	0	1	158	250	211	461	53	194	20	6	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	Binghamton Rumble Ponies	—	294	277	72	12	0	1	16	59	1	1	0	260	303	314	617	54	326	20	5	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	Memphis Redbirds	—	270	257	65	9	0	3	12	59	0	0	2	253	286	323	609	70	314	22	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	—	291	262	61	12	0	4	25	92	2	2	0	233	304	324	629	92	336	32	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	267	247	65	8	0	8	17	53	0	0	3	263	311	393	703	130	297	20	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	—	96	84	14	2	0	0	4	24	1	2	1	167	213	190	404	24	230	25	4	181	9	-10	+0	+5	+6	+2	0.3
2024	27	AAA MLE	Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp	—	174	161	30	10	0	2	12	42	1	0	0	186	247	286	533	99	248	24	7	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	23	23	5	2	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	217	217	304	522	87	294	26	0	216	32	-2	+0	+1	+7	+0	0.7
2025	28	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	—	211	196	44	6	0	3	12	61	1	0	0	224	273	301	574	77	307	29	6	263	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	MLB MLE	New York Yankees	—	92	86	21	2	0	1	1	25	3	0	1	244	278	302	580	58	328	27	1	258	61	-4	-0	+0	+4	+2	0.2
2026	29	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	147	134	26	1	0	4	12	34	1	0	1	194	265	291	556	97	224	23	8	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	—	209	183	37	5	0	1	19	38	4	6	6	202	291	246	537	44	248	18	9	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	—	209	175	53	7	0	3	27	31	4	6	6	303	408	394	802	91	352	15	13	363	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	188	178	41	5	0	0	7	40	3	2	0	230	271	258	530	28	297	21	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK RAW	Kingsport Mets	—	188	173	47	6	0	0	12	28	3	2	0	272	330	306	636	35	324	15	6	295	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	200	186	41	3	0	1	9	34	2	2	3	220	264	253	517	32	263	17	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	—	200	182	42	3	0	1	13	26	2	2	3	231	289	264	553	33	263	13	6	254	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	376	359	84	20	1	5	12	59	1	2	2	234	261	337	598	103	264	16	3	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A RAW	3 teams	—	376	353	90	21	1	6	18	43	1	2	2	255	293	371	664	116	273	11	5	294	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	408	380	92	18	0	1	22	81	4	1	1	242	291	297	588	55	303	20	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA RAW	3 teams	—	408	368	96	19	0	1	34	71	4	1	1	261	330	321	651	60	319	17	8	299	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	401	381	96	13	0	4	18	88	0	0	4	252	286	318	603	66	316	22	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	401	376	107	17	0	6	23	65	0	0	4	285	326	378	703	93	329	16	6	315	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	376	338	79	16	0	5	32	118	2	2	0	234	304	325	629	92	338	31	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	376	329	83	17	0	6	41	90	2	2	0	252	339	359	697	106	325	24	11	316	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	267	247	65	8	0	8	17	53	0	0	3	263	311	393	703	130	302	20	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA RAW	Reno Aces	—	267	238	74	10	0	11	26	42	0	0	3	311	379	492	870	181	335	16	10	381	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	336	307	57	16	0	3	20	82	2	3	2	186	240	267	507	81	242	24	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	336	303	74	24	0	4	24	68	2	3	2	244	304	363	667	119	302	20	7	295	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	387	360	82	13	0	6	20	111	1	1	0	228	270	314	584	86	306	29	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	387	350	99	17	0	12	30	72	1	1	0	283	341	434	775	151	321	19	8	341	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	239	220	47	3	0	5	13	59	4	0	2	214	270	295	565	82	268	25	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	239	214	50	3	0	7	19	53	4	0	2	234	308	346	654	112	277	22	8	296	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	17	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	—	209	184	37	5	0	1	19	38	4	6	6	201	291	245	536	43	240	18	9	247	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	18	ROK MLE	Kingsport Mets	—	188	176	41	5	0	0	7	40	3	2	0	233	271	261	533	28	288	21	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	20	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	—	200	187	41	3	0	1	9	34	2	2	3	219	264	251	515	32	255	17	4	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	21	A MLE	3 teams	—	376	360	84	20	1	5	12	59	1	2	2	233	261	336	597	103	257	16	3	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	22	AA MLE	3 teams	—	408	379	92	18	0	1	22	81	4	1	1	243	291	298	589	55	302	20	5	264	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	401	380	96	13	0	4	18	88	0	0	4	253	286	318	604	66	314	22	4	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	25	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	376	339	79	16	0	5	32	118	2	2	0	233	304	324	628	91	336	31	9	284	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	26	AAA MLE	Reno Aces	—	267	248	65	8	0	8	17	53	0	0	3	262	311	391	702	129	297	20	6	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	336	311	57	16	0	3	20	82	2	3	2	183	240	264	504	80	241	24	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	387	363	82	13	0	6	20	111	1	1	0	226	270	311	582	85	306	29	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	239	220	47	3	0	5	13	59	4	0	2	214	270	295	565	82	264	25	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	27	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	336	311	57	16	0	3	20	82	2	3	2	183	240	264	504	80	241	24	6	223	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	28	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	387	363	82	13	0	6	20	111	1	1	0	226	270	311	582	85	306	29	5	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	29	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	239	220	47	3	0	5	13	59	4	0	2	214	270	295	565	82	264	25	5	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	30	MLB MLE	NYY	45%	289	265	58	10	1	6	19	69	3	1	1	219	280	334	614	114	271	24	7	276	73	-9	-0	+2	+5	+6	0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	30	MLB CTX	NYY	45%	81	75	16	3	0	2	5	19	1	0	0	220	281	339	621	119	271	23	6	279	73	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	31	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	165	151	31	5	0	3	11	40	2	1	0	215	275	324	599	109	267	24	7	270	69	-6	+0	-2	+3	+4	-0.1
2028	31	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	88	81	17	3	0	2	6	21	1	0	0	216	276	329	605	113	267	24	7	273	69	-3	+0	-1	+2	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	299	274	57	9	0	3	11	76	5	2	2	208	252	274	525	66	274	25	4	234	62	-20	-0	+5	+19	+6	1.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	596	125	20	0	7	24	165	11	4	4	210	254	279	532	69	276	25	4	234	62	-43	-1	+11	+41	+14	2.2
Career	—	MLE		—	3733	3455	789	131	2	46	212	846	27	21	23	228	278	307	586	79	287	23	6	260	62	-28	+0	+5	+23	+12	1.2
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	602	137	23	0	8	37	147	5	4	4	228	278	306	584	78	285	23	6	260	62	-33	+0	+6	+27	+14	1.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 147 PAwOBA .311 → .249 (−62)K% 19.0% → 22.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.05%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	22.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.24%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.982	8.30%
HBP% /PA	0.68%	—	×0.940	—	×0.982	0.63%
Singles /BIP	22.00%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.027	×0.982	20.63%
Doubles /BIP	1.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.027	×0.982	0.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.027	×0.982	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.982	4.12%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .311 → .249; ISO .148 → .103; BABIP .245 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASyracuse Mets · 211 PAwOBA .328 → .263 (−65)K% 23.7% → 29.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.70%	÷0.981	×1.200	—	—	28.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.53%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×0.992	5.81%
HBP% /PA	0.47%	—	×0.940	—	×0.992	0.44%
Singles /BIP	27.14%	÷0.975	×0.930	×1.004	×0.992	25.78%
Doubles /BIP	5.71%	÷1.022	×0.830	×1.004	×0.992	4.62%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.959	×0.970	×1.004	×0.992	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	4.29%	÷1.167	×0.700	—	×0.992	2.55%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 96, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .328 → .263; ISO .137 → .088; BABIP .338 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 174 PAwOBA .297 → .246 (−51)K% 20.1% → 24.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.11%	÷0.999	×1.200	—	—	24.16%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.34%	÷1.005	×0.690	—	×1.003	7.12%
HBP% /PA	0.57%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	0.54%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.017	×1.003	15.56%
Doubles /BIP	10.00%	÷0.970	×0.830	×1.017	×1.003	8.73%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.985	×0.970	×1.017	×1.003	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.50%	÷0.925	×0.700	—	×1.003	1.90%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 103, 2B 94, 3B 97, K 100, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.

Result: wOBA .297 → .246; ISO .135 → .110; BABIP .274 → .248. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAReno Aces · 267 PAwOBA .375 → .304 (−71)K% 15.7% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.73%	÷0.951	×1.200	—	—	19.84%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.74%	÷1.096	×0.690	—	×1.018	6.24%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	0.00%
Singles /BIP	27.04%	÷1.026	×0.930	×0.997	×1.018	24.89%
Doubles /BIP	5.10%	÷1.059	×0.830	×0.997	×1.018	4.06%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.997	×1.018	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	5.61%	÷1.012	×0.700	—	×1.018	3.95%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 112, 3B 130, K 90, BB 119 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .375 → .304; ISO .181 → .132; BABIP .335 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAToledo Mud Hens · 291 PAwOBA .329 → .284 (−45)K% 26.5% → 31.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.46%	÷1.008	×1.200	—	—	31.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.68%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×1.033	8.64%
HBP% /PA	0.69%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	0.67%
Singles /BIP	26.29%	÷1.015	×0.930	×1.050	×1.033	26.12%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.015	×0.830	×1.050	×1.033	7.10%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.970	×1.050	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	3.43%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.033	2.42%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 103, 2B 103, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .329 → .284; ISO .127 → .098; BABIP .351 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 270 PAwOBA .302 → .267 (−35)K% 17.4% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.41%	÷0.955	×1.200	—	—	21.88%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.67%	÷1.056	×0.690	—	×1.048	4.57%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.940	—	×1.048	0.00%
Singles /BIP	26.96%	÷1.016	×0.930	×1.035	×1.048	26.77%
Doubles /BIP	4.90%	÷1.029	×0.830	×1.035	×1.048	4.29%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.920	×1.035	×1.048	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.96%	÷0.949	×0.700	—	×1.048	1.52%

Factors used: level-wide AAA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 91, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .302 → .267; ISO .088 → .070; BABIP .323 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AABinghamton Rumble Ponies · 294 PAwOBA .297 → .275 (−22)K% 17.7% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.69%	÷1.083	×1.220	—	—	19.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.80%	÷0.942	×0.700	—	×1.042	5.27%
HBP% /PA	0.34%	—	×0.850	—	×1.042	0.30%
Singles /BIP	27.98%	÷1.026	×0.970	×0.976	×1.042	26.92%
Doubles /BIP	5.96%	÷0.945	×0.860	×0.976	×1.042	5.52%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	×0.976	×1.042	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.46%	÷1.012	×0.780	—	×1.042	0.37%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 105, 2B 89, 3B 80, K 117, BB 88 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .297 → .275; ISO .059 → .054; BABIP .341 → .326. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAASyracuse Mets · 65 PAwOBA .248 → .216 (−32)K% 16.9% → 19.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.92%	÷1.020	×1.200	—	—	19.92%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷0.966	×0.690	—	×1.050	5.77%
HBP% /PA	4.62%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	4.56%
Singles /BIP	13.33%	÷1.042	×0.930	—	×1.050	12.50%
Doubles /BIP	8.89%	÷1.060	×0.830	—	×1.050	7.31%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.970	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.960	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 92, 1B 108, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 104, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .248 → .216; ISO .071 → .059; BABIP .217 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1René Riveralast yr '21 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	42	1	221	273	354	+29	+90	11.7	11.8
/162	664	17	0	+11.9	+37.2	4.9	pk7: 12
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#4Jeff Torborg'64-'73 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,525 PA	2.3	1,525	8	3	214*	271*	292*	+27	+0	0.2	0.7
/162	664	3	1	+11.8	+0.0	0.1	pk7: 1
#5Joel Skinner'83-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,551 PA	2.3	1,551	17	3	227*	270*	327*	+27	-0	-0.6	0.2
/162	664	7	1	+11.7	-0.1	-0.3	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	0.5	357	5	3	207	254	281	+6	+4	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	8	5	+11.9	+8.2	-0.9	pk7: -0
#6Mike Ryan'64-'74 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,098 PA	3.2	2,098	28	4	196*	257*	311*	+38	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	9	1	+11.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ali Sánchez (OGILVIE)	30	50	45	45	40	217/278/331	113	271	4	1	24%	7%	73	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Austin Wynns 2021 · MLB	30	45→51	42→45	46→40	45	223/276/318	95	270	11	4	22%	6%	68	-1.0	235/299/348	113	288	13	5	22%	7%	84	+0.2	233/301/333	100	289	11	3	22%	7%	80	-0.0
✕Steve Holm 2010 · MLB	30	45	44→50	43→40	47	220/282/336	116	262	11	4	20%	7%	75	-0.5	200/264/298	98	252	8	4	23%	7%	60	-1.6	183/252/262	79	234	5	1	23%	7%	47	-1.0
✕Dusty Brown 2012 · MLB	30	42	46→45	42→30	44	212/270/342	130	268	13	5	26%	7%	72	-0.7	212/286/361	149	271	16	6	27%	9%	83	+0.1	179/284/322	144	218	15	0	25%	12%	74	-0.2
✕Chad Moeller 2005 · MLB	30	46	45→50	39→30	45	228/281/353	125	273	12	3	21%	6%	78	-0.3	209/263/332	123	254	14	3	23%	6%	68	-1.0	200/250/291	90	248	5	0	21%	5%	52	-0.6
✕Humberto Sosa 2016 · AAA	30	45→48	42→45	45	42	224/262/321	98	271	11	4	22%	5%	63	-1.3	212/258/303	91	269	10	6	24%	6%	58	-1.7	203/254/315	112	253	14	2	25%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Nevin Ashley 2016 · MLB	31	46→50	42→45	43→45	43	225/283/328	103	289	9	4	25%	6%	74	-0.6	223/291/341	118	297	12	6	28%	7%	80	-0.2	191/276/300	109	258	12	2	29%	8%	65	-0.4
✕Brad Davis 2012 · MLB	29	45	44→50	46→45	42	223/272/341	118	288	11	4	26%	6%	72	-0.7	200/246/301	101	267	9	8	27%	5%	53	-2.1	161/201/244	83	215	6	7	28%	5%	21	-1.3
✕Jesus Alberto Vega 2012 · AAA	30	44	46→45	40	45	224/284/350	126	268	14	3	22%	6%	79	-0.2	215/268/332	117	273	13	7	26%	6%	69	-0.9	207/257/302	95	280	10	3	29%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Koyie Hill 2009 · MLB	30	43→42	47→45	44→40	44	220/272/359	139	267	15	5	24%	6%	76	-0.4	219/269/324	105	291	9	5	26%	6%	67	-1.1	210/259/290	80	285	5	2	27%	6%	56	-0.7
✕Carlos Maldonado 2009 · MLB	30	46→50	42→40	44→40	46	225/280/329	104	273	10	5	22%	7%	72	-0.7	209/267/308	99	264	10	6	23%	7%	63	-1.4	177/248/266	90	233	9	2	27%	8%	45	-0.8
✕Jason Hill 2007 · AAA	30	45→54	45	45→30	44	223/267/345	122	254	12	4	18%	5%	71	-0.8	241/280/350	109	281	10	5	18%	5%	77	-0.3	259/293/365	105	299	9	1	16%	4%	81	-0.0
✕Bryan Holaday 2017 · MLB	29	46	44→45	42→40	42	226/274/343	117	278	11	5	23%	5%	74	-0.6	226/277/351	125	260	13	3	18%	5%	77	-0.3	214/275/334	120	247	13	2	19%	6%	74	-0.2
✕Brett Nicholas 2018 · MLB	30	48→50	46→50	43→40	40	238/279/366	127	295	13	4	24%	5%	80	-0.1	227/275/359	132	285	14	5	25%	6%	78	-0.3	213/264/342	129	263	15	1	25%	6%	67	-0.8
✕Danny Mendick 2023 · MLB	29	49→47	44→45	43→50	46	241/301/359	118	302	12	7	24%	7%	87	+0.4	226/284/351	125	272	14	14	22%	7%	80	-0.2	215/273/335	119	256	13	15	21%	6%	69	-0.7
✕Xorge Carrillo 2019 · AAA	30	44	42→40	45→30	41	219/266/319	100	282	10	5	26%	5%	65	-1.2	239/298/357	118	280	12	7	19%	6%	86	+0.3	251/312/356	105	283	10	2	15%	6%	87	+0.2
✕Tony Cruz 2017 · MLB	30	44→39	41→45	42→40	45	217/271/316	100	274	9	5	24%	7%	66	-1.1	214/266/339	125	285	14	5	29%	6%	70	-0.9	213/260/332	119	284	15	0	30%	4%	65	-0.4
✕Seth Mejias-Brean 2021 · MLB	30	47→53	44→45	47→45	43	235/284/351	116	290	12	7	23%	6%	78	-0.3	219/276/341	122	288	13	13	27%	7%	74	-0.5	193/251/296	103	252	12	14	28%	6%	51	-0.9
✕Tim Federowicz 2019 · MLB	31	46→51	47→50	49→40	43	232/282/367	136	297	14	5	27%	6%	82	-0.0	205/258/332	127	273	15	6	29%	7%	65	-1.2	160/212/265	105	214	15	2	32%	6%	31	-1.5
✕Chuckie Robinson 2024 · MLB	29	48→53	45	47→45	42	237/286/354	117	294	13	9	24%	5%	80	-0.1	215/264/311	96	285	10	5	27%	5%	62	-1.4	195/245/275	80	261	9	1	28%	5%	45	-1.2
✕Charlie Culberson 2019 · MLB	30	48→54	46→45	47→50	41	238/278/366	128	297	13	9	24%	5%	80	-0.1	245/292/400	155	313	17	9	26%	6%	93	+0.8	244/286/380	136	314	13	10	26%	5%	86	+0.1

Ali Sánchez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps