Pedro Montero

P DSL Miami

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 144 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038 peak 0.4 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Miami	11	11	36	3.00	2.54	30.1%	9.6%	—	K 20.5% · BB 12.0% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	20	MLBMIA	12	12	68	4.58	4.58	23.5%	11.5%	0.3
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBMIA	9	9	52	4.51	4.54	22.4%	11.3%	0.2
2029PROJ73% MLB	22	MLBMIA	19	19	107	4.37	4.29	23.5%	10.3%	0.7

Next 3 projected WAR 1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Command45FB velo55

CompsRayner Urbaez (age 20) · Marco Raya (age 20) · Brandon Young (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120112vR 104

ERA4.58

FIP4.58

K%23.5%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP68

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 68 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4055

CMD2045

K†5560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	36	146	44	14	2	100%	3.3	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.3%	3.00	3.63	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	11	11	36	146	44	14	2	100%	3.3	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.3%	3.00	3.63	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	11	11	36	146	44	14	2	100%	3.3	30.1%	9.6%	20.5%	1.4%	3.00	2.54	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	MIA	12	12	68	287	68	33	9	100%	5.7	23.5%	11.5%	12.0%	3.0%	4.58	4.58	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	MIA	19	19	106	446	100	51	13	100%	5.6	22.4%	11.3%	11.1%	2.9%	4.59	4.62	+0.3
2029	22	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	147	620	146	64	18	100%	5.4	23.5%	10.3%	13.2%	2.9%	4.45	4.37	+0.9
2030	23	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	175	739	179	72	21	100%	5.5	24.2%	9.7%	14.4%	2.8%	4.31	4.22	+1.4
2031	24	MLB MLE	MIA	32	32	179	757	187	71	21	100%	5.6	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	2.8%	4.20	4.12	+1.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	MIA	31	31	180	760	190	70	21	100%	5.8	25.1%	9.2%	15.8%	2.8%	4.11	4.06	+1.8
2033	26	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	180	760	192	70	21	100%	6.0	25.2%	9.2%	16.1%	2.8%	4.07	4.04	+1.8
2034	27	MLB MLE	MIA	30	30	177	749	189	69	21	100%	5.9	25.2%	9.3%	16.0%	2.8%	4.07	4.08	+1.7
2035	28	MLB MLE	MIA	29	29	172	726	182	68	21	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.4%	15.7%	2.9%	4.12	4.16	+1.5
2036	29	MLB MLE	MIA	27	27	164	694	173	67	21	100%	6.1	24.9%	9.6%	15.2%	3.1%	4.22	4.29	+1.2
2037	30	MLB MLE	MIA	26	26	154	652	160	65	21	100%	5.9	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	3.3%	4.37	4.47	+0.8
2038	31	MLB MLE	MIA	24	24	144	608	147	63	21	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.3%	13.8%	3.5%	4.55	4.67	+0.4
2039	32	MLB MLE	MIA	22	22	133	562	133	60	21	100%	6.1	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	3.8%	4.76	4.89	+0.0
2040	33	MLB MLE	MIA	20	20	122	516	120	57	21	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.1%	12.0%	4.0%	4.99	5.15	-0.4
2028	21	MLB CTX	MIA	9	9	52	220	49	25	6	100%	5.8	22.4%	11.3%	11.1%	2.8%	4.51	4.54	+0.2
2029	22	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	107	452	106	47	12	100%	5.6	23.5%	10.3%	13.2%	2.7%	4.37	4.29	+0.7
2030	23	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	148	625	151	61	17	100%	5.5	24.2%	9.7%	14.4%	2.7%	4.23	4.14	+1.2
2031	24	MLB CTX	MIA	29	29	160	676	167	63	18	100%	5.5	24.7%	9.4%	15.3%	2.7%	4.12	4.04	+1.5
2032	25	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	165	697	175	64	18	100%	5.9	25.1%	9.2%	15.8%	2.6%	4.03	3.98	+1.6
2033	26	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	168	709	179	65	19	100%	6.0	25.2%	9.2%	16.1%	2.6%	3.99	3.96	+1.7
2034	27	MLB CTX	MIA	28	28	168	709	179	66	19	100%	6.0	25.2%	9.3%	16.0%	2.7%	3.99	4.00	+1.6
2035	28	MLB CTX	MIA	27	27	163	688	173	65	19	100%	6.0	25.1%	9.4%	15.7%	2.8%	4.04	4.08	+1.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	MIA	26	26	156	659	164	63	19	100%	6.0	24.9%	9.6%	15.2%	2.9%	4.14	4.21	+1.1
2037	30	MLB CTX	MIA	24	24	147	621	152	62	19	100%	6.1	24.5%	9.9%	14.6%	3.1%	4.28	4.38	+0.7
2038	31	MLB CTX	MIA	23	23	137	578	140	60	19	100%	6.0	24.1%	10.3%	13.8%	3.3%	4.45	4.57	+0.4
2039	32	MLB CTX	MIA	21	21	127	536	127	57	19	100%	6.0	23.7%	10.7%	13.0%	3.6%	4.66	4.79	+0.0
2040	33	MLB CTX	MIA	19	19	116	490	114	55	19	100%	6.1	23.2%	11.1%	12.0%	3.8%	4.88	5.04	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		313	313	1813	7657	1874	752	224	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	2.9%	4.24	3.88	+22.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	207	83	25	100%	5.8	24.5%	9.8%	14.7%	2.9%	4.24	3.88	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		11	11	36	146	30	18	2	100%	3.3	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.3%	3.00	3.63	+13.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		61	61	200	811	166	97	11	100%	3.3	20.5%	12.0%	8.5%	1.3%	3.00	3.63	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Pedro Montero (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.58	23.5%	11.5%	3.0%	—	4.37	23.5%	13.2%	428	-0.21	—	—	—
Rayner Urbaez R 2023 · 3.88 FIP	20	SP	3.88	23.6%	11.4%	2.4%	.337	3.35	15.0%	3.0%	27	-0.53	2.55	103	87
Marco Raya R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	20	SP	3.99	19.9%	9.6%	2.5%	.238	4.75	20.8%	10.0%	256	+0.76	3.99	383	84
Brandon Young R 2021 · 4.13 FIP	22	SP	4.13	24.5%	12.3%	2.8%	.297	3.48	22.2%	14.6%	150	-0.65	3.03	492	83
Tanner Burns R 2021 · 4.34 FIP	22	SP	4.34	22.2%	10.6%	3.2%	.292	5.31	19.4%	6.5%	244	+0.97	4.34	382	82
Levi Wells R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	22	SP	4.35	20.0%	12.1%	2.6%	.360	3.82	19.0%	10.2%	132	-0.53	3.70	192	82
Carmen Mlodzinski R 2021 · 4.33 FIP	22	SP	4.33	23.1%	10.8%	3.3%	.311	3.86	20.8%	11.3%	236	-0.47	3.16	524	82
José López R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	21	SP	4.04	19.1%	9.9%	2.3%	.329	3.77	17.9%	9.9%	436	-0.27	3.12	543	82
Adrian Heredia R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	19	SP	3.77	21.6%	12.8%	1.6%	.300	5.38	14.9%	1.8%	104	+1.61	3.34	149	81
Jaxon Wiggins R 2024 · 3.53 FIP	22	SP	3.53	22.5%	12.8%	1.3%	.286	3.71	23.6%	9.6%	102	+0.18	3.11	154	81
Jaden Hamm R 2024 · 3.79 FIP	21	SP	3.79	23.5%	8.9%	2.8%	.273	4.79	17.1%	7.3%	83	+1.00	3.79	182	81
Mike Vasil R 2022 · 3.63 FIP	22	SP	3.63	21.9%	10.5%	1.9%	.264	4.53	18.9%	10.0%	359	+0.90	3.63	429	80
Trevor Harrison R 2024 · 4.03 FIP	18	SP	4.03	21.0%	10.6%	2.5%	.331	4.94	19.7%	7.0%	205	+0.91	3.79	277	80
Brody McCullough R 2023 · 3.58 FIP	23	SP	3.58	23.1%	10.3%	2.1%	.267	4.45	21.3%	11.7%	42	+0.87	3.58	129	79
CJ Van Eyk R 2021 · 4.79 FIP	22	SP	4.79	21.8%	12.7%	3.5%	.302	4.64	15.2%	5.3%	127	-0.15	4.18	457	79
Ryan Jensen R 2021 · 4.86 FIP	23	SP	4.86	21.4%	10.8%	4.0%	.236	4.48	22.0%	5.1%	180	-0.38	3.92	311	78
Carson Fulmer R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	21	SP	4.15	21.4%	11.5%	2.5%	.259	4.96	17.1%	4.0%	364	+0.81	3.88	910	78
Adrian Navas R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	19	SP	3.67	18.5%	11.9%	1.2%	.272	5.27	16.8%	7.1%	145	+1.60	3.67	204	78
Josh Knoth R 2024 · 4.35 FIP	18	SP	4.35	19.7%	13.1%	2.3%	.326	4.89	18.0%	7.6%	82	+0.54	4.35	166	78
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	78
River Ryan R 2022 · 3.69 FIP	23	SP	3.69	26.1%	12.2%	2.3%	.321	3.88	20.3%	9.2%	134	+0.19	2.44	223	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	10.5	150	24.4%	9.9%	1.19	4.34
Bob Weiland ('28-'40, 10 WAR*)	6.9	139	22.6%*	9.9%*	1.15*	4.26*
Fred Norman ('62-'80, 16 WAR*)	9.7	162	22.3%*	9.7%*	1.34*	4.33*
Jose DeLeon ('83-'95, 22 WAR*)	9.5	146	25.8%*	10.4%*	1.01*	4.17*
Francisco Liriano ('19)	9.1	130	23.3%	10.5%	0.91	4.15
Scott Kazmir ('21)	8.5	155	22.1%	9.4%	1.02	4.02
J.A. Happ ('21)	9.5	135	20.6%	8.3%	1.24	4.13