Alfred Ciriaco

SS DSL NYY Bombers

Age 20 L/R 5'11" / 156 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#964ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	18	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	83	.271/.386/.286	0	11	34	—	.194/.301/.208
2026	19	ROKDSL NYY Bombe…	95	.333/.522/.545	2	2	105	—	.222/.391/.347
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBNYY	205	.221/.302/.300	2	4	74	0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBNYY	36	.225/.306/.316	0	1	78	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	22	MLBNYY	94	.228/.309/.328	1	2	82	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

wOBA97

wRC+95

Z-Con%95

K%92

Whiff%92

ISO86

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAidan Miller (age 20) · Enmanuel Terrero (age 20) · Kevyn Castillo (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj PA

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.219 / .300 / .297

PA51

HR0

K%24

BB%8

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$19M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2036	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2038	Arb-3	$1M	—	—	—
Totals		$3M		$5M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	83	70	19	1	0	0	6	13	7	11	3	271	386	286	671	14	333	16	7	324	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	95	66	22	6	1	2	19	11	7	2	2	333	522	545	1.067	212	357	12	20	459	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	83	72	14	1	0	0	4	16	7	11	3	194	301	208	510	14	228	19	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	95	72	16	4	1	1	13	13	7	2	2	222	391	347	739	125	227	14	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	83	72	14	1	0	0	4	16	7	11	3	194	301	208	510	14	250	19	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	83	70	19	1	0	0	6	13	7	11	3	271	386	286	671	14	333	16	7	324	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	95	72	16	4	1	1	13	13	7	2	2	222	391	347	739	125	246	14	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	—	95	66	22	6	1	2	19	11	7	2	2	333	522	545	1.067	212	357	12	20	459	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	83	72	14	1	0	0	4	16	7	11	3	194	301	208	510	14	228	19	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	95	75	16	4	1	1	13	13	7	2	2	213	391	333	725	120	227	14	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	83	72	14	1	0	0	4	16	7	11	3	194	301	208	510	14	228	19	5	219	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	—	95	75	16	4	1	1	13	13	7	2	2	213	391	333	725	120	227	14	14	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	NYY	0%	205	182	40	7	1	2	16	48	5	4	1	221	302	300	602	79	288	23	8	277	74	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	NYY	34%	106	94	21	3	1	1	8	25	3	2	0	224	306	313	619	89	289	24	8	284	78	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2029	22	MLB MLE	NYY	48%	194	172	39	6	1	3	15	45	5	4	1	227	309	325	633	97	290	23	8	289	82	-4	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.3
2030	23	MLB MLE	NYY	54%	289	257	59	10	2	4	23	67	7	6	1	230	311	334	645	104	291	23	8	294	85	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2031	24	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	366	325	75	13	2	6	29	84	9	8	2	232	313	343	656	110	292	23	8	298	88	-5	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.7
2032	25	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	411	365	85	14	3	7	33	95	10	9	2	234	314	349	663	115	293	23	8	300	89	-5	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.9
2033	26	MLB MLE	NYY	56%	436	388	91	15	3	8	35	100	10	9	2	234	314	351	666	117	292	23	8	301	90	-5	+1	+0	+5	+9	1.0
2034	27	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	446	397	92	15	3	8	36	103	10	9	2	233	313	349	662	116	292	23	8	300	89	-6	+1	+0	+5	+10	1.0
2035	28	MLB MLE	NYY	55%	446	397	92	15	3	8	36	104	10	9	2	231	311	344	656	113	291	23	8	297	87	-7	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.8
2036	29	MLB MLE	NYY	53%	439	391	89	15	3	7	35	104	10	9	2	229	309	338	647	109	290	24	8	294	85	-8	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.6
2037	30	MLB MLE	NYY	57%	430	384	87	14	3	7	34	103	9	8	2	226	305	331	636	105	289	24	8	290	82	-9	+1	-2	+5	+9	0.4
2038	31	MLB MLE	NYY	60%	413	369	81	13	2	6	32	101	9	7	2	222	301	321	622	99	286	24	8	284	78	-11	+1	-3	+4	+9	0.0
2028	21	MLB CTX	NYY	34%	36	32	6	1	0	0	3	8	1	1	0	225	306	316	622	91	289	22	8	285	78	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	NYY	48%	94	85	19	3	1	1	7	22	2	2	0	228	309	328	637	100	290	23	7	291	82	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	NYY	54%	157	140	32	5	1	3	12	36	4	3	1	231	312	338	650	107	291	23	8	295	85	-3	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.3
2031	24	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	203	180	42	7	1	4	16	47	5	4	1	233	314	347	661	114	292	23	8	300	88	-3	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.4
2032	25	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	230	205	48	8	2	4	18	53	5	5	1	235	315	354	669	119	293	23	8	302	89	-3	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.5
2033	26	MLB CTX	NYY	56%	245	217	51	8	2	5	20	56	6	5	1	235	315	356	671	121	292	23	8	303	90	-3	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.6
2034	27	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	247	219	51	8	2	5	20	57	6	5	1	234	314	354	668	119	292	23	8	302	89	-3	+1	+0	+3	+5	0.6
2035	28	MLB CTX	NYY	55%	245	217	51	8	2	5	20	57	6	5	1	232	312	349	661	117	291	23	8	299	87	-4	+1	-0	+3	+5	0.5
2036	29	MLB CTX	NYY	53%	235	209	48	8	1	4	19	56	5	5	1	230	309	343	652	113	290	24	8	296	85	-4	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	NYY	57%	245	219	49	8	1	4	19	59	5	5	1	227	306	335	641	108	289	24	8	291	82	-5	+1	-1	+3	+5	0.2
2038	31	MLB CTX	NYY	60%	246	220	49	8	1	4	19	60	5	4	1	223	301	325	626	102	286	24	8	285	78	-6	+0	-2	+3	+5	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2183	1943	446	72	14	39	173	511	50	44	9	230	309	341	650	112	290	23	8	297	85	-37	+5	-4	+23	+47	3.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	579	133	21	4	12	52	152	15	13	3	230	310	342	652	112	289	23	8	297	85	-11	+2	-1	+7	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	4205	3729	851	140	27	66	337	972	107	94	23	228	310	333	644	105	289	23	8	294	85	-70	+9	-7	+43	+87	6.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	132	22	4	10	52	150	17	15	4	229	312	333	645	104	291	23	8	294	85	-11	+1	-1	+7	+14	1.0

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 95 PAwOBA .464 → .323 (−140)K% 11.6% → 14.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.58%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	14.13%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.985	13.79%
HBP% /PA	7.37%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	5.08%
Singles /BIP	23.64%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.003	×0.985	15.87%
Doubles /BIP	10.91%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.003	×0.985	6.46%
Triples /BIP	1.82%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.003	×0.985	1.08%
Home runs /BIP	3.64%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.985	1.68%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.

Result: wOBA .464 → .323; ISO .212 → .132; BABIP .357 → .227. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL NYY Bombers · 83 PAwOBA .312 → .219 (−93)K% 15.7% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.66%	÷0.997	×1.220	—	—	19.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	6.02%	÷0.966	×0.700	—	×0.995	4.34%
HBP% /PA	8.43%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	5.87%
Singles /BIP	31.58%	÷0.985	×0.680	×1.002	×0.995	21.72%
Doubles /BIP	1.75%	÷1.019	×0.600	×1.002	×0.995	1.03%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.961	×0.600	×1.002	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.090	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 97, 2B 104, 3B 92, K 99, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.002.

Result: wOBA .312 → .219; ISO .014 → .009; BABIP .333 → .228. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Mike Gallego'85-'97 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,379 PA	5.1	3,379	42	24	235*	316*	342*	+20	+41	9.5	10.5
/162	664	8	5	+4.0	+8.1	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
/162	664	4	15	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#5Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
/162	664	3	5	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.4	2,234	37	46	231	307	340	+24	+21	5.2	4.8
/162	664	11	14	+7.1	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alfred Ciriaco (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	219/300/297	79	288	0	1	24%	8%	74	-0.0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aidan Miller 2024 · A	20	49→50	38→50	52→65	47	228/303/310	83	316	4	12	27%	8%	77	-0.3	227/310/359	132	312	11	28	28%	9%	91	+0.7	224/315/364	140	306	12	36	28%	10%	91	+0.5
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2023 · A	20	46	37→45	47→55	56	216/300/287	72	267	3	12	19%	11%	71	-0.8	208/277/303	95	322	9	15	35%	8%	65	-1.2	191/260/285	94	305	11	18	38%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Hoy Park 2016 · A	20	40→50	41→45	47→55	46	197/270/297	100	265	8	11	28%	8%	62	-1.4	207/284/295	88	286	5	16	27%	9%	67	-1.1	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Tayden Hall 2023 · A	20	48→49	38→40	50	45	222/290/308	86	313	4	6	28%	8%	71	-0.8	212/308/278	66	294	3	7	25%	11%	72	-0.7	187/301/283	96	257	7	9	27%	13%	70	-0.5
✕Petey Halpin 2022 · A	20	49	39→45	49→50	42	231/284/328	97	320	4	13	28%	6%	73	-0.6	226/285/333	107	314	8	13	29%	7%	75	-0.5	219/281/331	112	301	10	13	29%	7%	71	-0.6
●Jorbit Vivas 2021 · A	20	46→56	37→45	49→50	47	215/289/297	81	268	3	11	20%	7%	69	-0.9	253/327/377	124	285	11	7	15%	7%	101	+1.4	252/334/373	121	281	11	9	14%	8%	101	+1.3
✕Anthony Seigler 2019 · A	20	45→40	38→45	48→55	50	214/284/293	79	268	6	5	22%	8%	66	-1.1	196/276/274	78	288	5	5	30%	9%	59	-1.7	221/312/347	126	270	10	25	21%	11%	87	+0.2
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42	36→45	47→45	43	198/274/269	70	273	3	8	27%	6%	57	-1.8	204/306/321	117	276	13	6	29%	9%	82	+0.0	179/320/285	107	245	9	4	27%	12%	79	-0.1
✕Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	45→46	39→55	52→50	46	212/280/301	90	299	6	9	30%	9%	66	-1.1	196/254/318	122	282	11	8	33%	7%	60	-1.6	218/311/396	178	274	21	12	27%	11%	100	+1.0
✕Diego Velasquez 2024 · A	20	49→59	40	50	46	234/299/328	94	301	7	12	24%	7%	80	-0.2	253/321/334	81	323	4	15	21%	8%	88	+0.5	262/334/335	73	332	3	18	20%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Jacob Amaya 2019 · A	20	49→47	39→45	48→45	52	232/310/319	87	306	7	11	25%	10%	82	-0.0	216/290/316	100	284	8	6	25%	9%	74	-0.6	218/291/330	112	279	11	6	25%	9%	75	-0.4
✕Richi Sanchez 2014 · A	20	48	38→40	50	60	221/321/305	85	261	4	10	16%	12%	83	+0.1	203/276/272	69	258	3	7	20%	9%	58	-1.7	170/226/236	67	206	0	6	17%	6%	28	-0.9
✕Eddinson Paulino 2022 · A	20	47→42	38→50	49→50	47	218/290/313	95	291	2	8	24%	8%	72	-0.7	212/277/345	133	290	11	16	29%	7%	75	-0.5	206/271/337	132	279	11	18	29%	7%	69	-0.7
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2019 · A	20	46→51	41→45	46→55	51	218/304/317	98	298	9	7	28%	10%	79	-0.2	237/308/353	116	333	10	11	29%	9%	88	+0.5	242/319/359	118	343	9	15	29%	10%	91	+0.4
✕Dario Laverde 2024 · A	19	46→34	37→40	52→30	50	214/292/297	83	279	3	11	23%	9%	70	-0.9	207/268/284	77	295	4	4	29%	7%	57	-1.8	196/254/265	68	282	4	0	30%	6%	45	-1.6
✕Marcus Lemon 2008 · A	20	50→55	38→40	46→45	47	233/301/319	86	310	3	10	24%	8%	78	-0.3	248/302/338	90	307	5	8	20%	6%	82	-0.0	254/303/338	84	308	4	7	18%	6%	79	-0.2
✕Luis Torrens 2016 · A	20	43→49	39→50	49→40	45	207/279/288	81	285	6	6	28%	8%	63	-1.3	212/273/295	83	270	6	4	22%	7%	62	-1.4	233/290/382	149	292	18	0	26%	7%	89	+0.3
✕Edgar Rondon 2016 · A	21	46	37→40	52→50	48	213/291/294	80	278	3	12	23%	8%	69	-0.9	206/275/275	69	326	3	10	34%	7%	59	-1.7	169/246/196	27	334	0	12	45%	7%	28	-0.7

Alfred Ciriaco

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps