Alfred Ciriaco — OGILVIE

Alfred CiriacoSS DSL NYY Bombers

Age 19 L/R 5'11" / 156 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION70 act + 46 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†72

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .279 / .216

PA46

HR0

K%21

BB%9

BABIP253

ISO24

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.9	$10M	+$9M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.0	$9M	+$9M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+2.0	$9M	+$8M
2035	Arb-1	$4M	+1.9	$8M	+$6M
2036	Arb-2	$6M	+1.7	$6M	+$4M
2037	Arb-3	$7M	+1.5	$5M	+$3M
Totals		$20M		$47M	+$40M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	83	73	16	1	0	0	3	19	7	11	3	219	313	233	546	14	296	23	4	243	44	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	83	70	19	1	0	0	6	13	7	11	3	271	386	286	671	14	333	16	7	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	NYY	—	70	52	11	2	0	0	12	9	4	2	0	212	397	250	647	38	244	13	17	305	91	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
YTD	19	ROK	NYY	—	70	44	11	2	0	0	20	6	4	2	0	250	515	295	810	45	275	9	29	394	160	+5	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.8
ROS	19	ROK	NYY	0%	46	41	8	1	0	0	4	10	1	1	0	192	279	216	495	24	283	21	9	279	72	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
ROS	19	MLB	NYY	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		283	—	—	259	57	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	NYY	—	70	53	11	2	0	0	12	9	4	2	0	208	397	245	642	38	239	13	17	305	91	-1	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.2
TOT	19	ROK	NYY	—	116	93	19	3	0	0	16	19	5	3	0	203	349	235	584	32	248	16	14	294	84	-2	+1	+0	+1	+3	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	NYY	34%	166	145	33	5	1	2	16	37	4	3	1	228	321	317	638	90	284	22	10	287	78	-4	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.3
2028	21	MLB	NYY	48%	306	266	60	9	1	4	29	67	8	6	1	226	320	312	632	86	286	22	9	294	83	-6	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.7
2029	22	MLB	NYY	54%	409	357	82	13	2	6	39	89	10	8	1	230	323	328	650	98	287	22	10	299	87	-6	+1	+0	+4	+12	1.1
2030	23	MLB	NYY	57%	478	418	97	15	2	8	45	104	12	10	1	232	324	335	659	103	288	22	9	302	90	-6	+2	+0	+5	+14	1.5
2031	24	MLB	NYY	57%	523	455	107	16	3	9	50	113	13	11	2	235	328	343	671	108	289	22	10	305	91	-5	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.7
2032	25	MLB	NYY	57%	550	479	113	17	3	10	52	119	14	11	2	236	328	347	675	111	289	22	9	306	93	-5	+1	+0	+6	+16	1.9
2033	26	MLB	NYY	56%	565	492	117	18	3	11	54	122	14	12	2	238	330	354	684	116	289	22	10	308	94	-4	+2	+0	+6	+16	2.0
2034	27	MLB	NYY	55%	569	495	117	18	3	11	55	124	14	12	2	236	330	352	681	115	289	22	10	308	94	-4	+2	+0	+6	+16	2.0
2035	28	MLB	NYY	55%	568	494	116	18	3	10	55	124	14	11	2	235	329	344	673	109	289	22	10	307	93	-5	+1	-1	+6	+16	1.9
2036	29	MLB	NYY	53%	560	486	112	17	2	10	55	124	14	10	2	230	326	335	662	105	288	22	10	305	92	-5	+1	-1	+6	+16	1.7
2037	30	MLB	NYY	53%	550	478	111	17	2	10	54	123	13	9	1	232	327	339	666	107	287	22	10	303	90	-6	+1	-2	+6	+16	1.5
2038	31	MLB	NYY	57%	537	466	106	16	2	9	53	121	13	8	1	227	323	328	652	101	285	23	10	299	87	-8	+1	-3	+6	+15	1.2
2039	32	MLB	NYY	54%	519	450	101	15	2	8	51	119	13	6	1	224	321	320	641	96	282	23	10	294	83	-10	+1	-4	+6	+15	0.8
2027	20	MLB	NYY	34%	57	51	12	2	0	1	5	13	1	1	0	235	316	333	649	98	285	23	9	270	65	-2	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2028	21	MLB	NYY	48%	148	129	30	5	1	2	14	32	4	3	0	233	327	333	660	101	287	22	9	277	70	-5	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	22	MLB	NYY	54%	222	193	45	7	1	4	21	48	6	5	1	233	327	342	669	109	288	22	9	283	75	-6	+1	+0	+2	+6	0.3
2030	23	MLB	NYY	57%	271	236	56	9	1	5	26	59	7	6	1	237	331	347	678	110	289	22	10	286	77	-7	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.5
2031	24	MLB	NYY	57%	296	259	60	10	1	5	28	64	7	6	1	232	323	336	659	104	290	22	9	289	79	-7	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.6
2032	25	MLB	NYY	57%	311	270	64	10	1	6	30	67	8	6	1	237	331	348	679	111	290	22	10	290	80	-7	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.6
2033	26	MLB	NYY	56%	319	278	66	10	2	6	30	69	8	7	1	237	329	353	682	115	290	22	9	292	81	-7	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.7
2034	27	MLB	NYY	55%	315	274	64	10	1	6	30	68	8	6	1	234	327	343	670	109	290	22	10	292	81	-7	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.7
2035	28	MLB	NYY	55%	312	271	64	10	1	6	30	68	8	6	1	236	330	347	677	111	290	22	10	291	81	-7	+1	-0	+3	+9	0.6
2036	29	MLB	NYY	53%	299	261	60	9	1	6	29	66	7	5	1	230	323	341	664	111	289	22	10	289	79	-7	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.5
2037	30	MLB	NYY	53%	289	252	58	9	1	5	28	64	7	5	1	230	324	333	657	103	288	22	10	287	77	-7	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.3
2038	31	MLB	NYY	57%	304	264	60	9	1	5	30	69	7	4	1	227	322	326	648	98	286	23	10	283	75	-9	+0	-2	+3	+9	0.2
2039	32	MLB	NYY	54%	282	245	55	8	1	5	28	65	7	3	0	224	321	327	648	102	283	23	10	278	71	-9	+1	-2	+3	+8	0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3425	2984	694	108	13	62	329	752	85	63	10	233	326	340	666	107	289	22	10	287	78	-87	+9	-6	+37	+97	5.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	131	20	2	12	62	143	16	12	2	231	324	337	661	106	287	22	10	287	78	-17	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.0
Career	—			—	6429	5595	1296	196	29	108	615	1415	164	129	22	232	326	335	660	103	289	22	10	302	89	-80	+17	-10	+69	+182	18.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	131	20	3	11	62	143	17	13	2	231	326	336	661	104	289	22	10	302	89	-8	+2	-1	+7	+18	1.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	18	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	83	70	19	1	0	0	6	13	7	11	3	271	386	286	671	14	333	16	7	324	106	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	11	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.6	16.1
	/162	664	11	2	241	318	351	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Royce Claytonlast yr '07 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,920 PA	8	3,920	54	70	256	311	365	+18	+17	10.1	10.0
	/162	664	9	12	256	311	365	+3.1	+2.9	1.7	pk7: 10
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,500	59	65	232	322	337	+38	+24	10.1	8.6
	/162	664	11	12	232	322	337	+7.1	+4.6	1.9	pk7: 7
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alfred Ciriaco (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	203/349/235	32	248	0	3	16%	14%	84	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	44	39→55	52→50	46	210/278/299	89	296	6	9	30%	8%	60	-1.0	189/246/313	124	271	11	8	33%	7%	50	-1.7	218/311/403	185	271	23	12	27%	11%	99	+1.3
✕Enmanuel Terrero 2022 · A	19	42	36→45	46→55	52	196/279/261	65	256	3	9	23%	10%	52	-1.6	220/298/308	88	314	7	14	29%	10%	71	-0.3	212/292/305	93	325	9	17	34%	10%	65	-0.3
●Drew Cumberland 2008 · A	19	48	36→45	52→55	46	224/280/288	65	272	3	11	18%	6%	58	-1.2	251/303/338	87	297	5	18	16%	6%	80	+0.4	277/326/387	110	323	8	22	16%	6%	99	+0.8
●Jorbit Vivas 2021 · A	20	46→56	37→45	49→50	46	217/288/299	82	276	3	11	21%	7%	66	-0.6	248/321/370	122	279	11	7	15%	7%	98	+1.6	245/326/365	120	273	11	9	14%	7%	96	+1.4
✕Alek Thomas 2019 · A	19	50→51	38→50	51→50	44	238/283/324	87	297	4	10	21%	6%	68	-0.5	241/294/369	128	325	10	10	27%	6%	85	+0.7	241/298/385	144	307	13	11	25%	6%	87	+0.7
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	47	37→45	47→50	48	219/301/296	77	303	4	8	27%	9%	70	-0.3	210/316/279	69	269	4	14	21%	11%	73	-0.1	220/318/345	125	249	16	10	18%	10%	88	+0.4
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→45	54→50	43	225/276/311	86	292	5	14	24%	6%	62	-0.9	252/298/346	94	308	6	11	19%	6%	80	+0.4	274/322/369	95	316	5	8	14%	6%	95	+1.2
●Jordany Valdespin 2008 · A	20	43→53	37→50	49→55	48	202/278/277	75	266	4	10	24%	8%	56	-1.3	223/264/322	99	273	7	13	20%	5%	59	-1.1	256/296/403	147	298	17	28	20%	4%	92	+0.7
✕Termarr Johnson 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	52→55	47	210/291/312	102	321	7	14	34%	10%	70	-0.3	212/314/339	127	299	15	12	31%	12%	88	+0.9	207/304/326	119	281	14	14	29%	11%	78	+0.2
●Josh VanMeter 2014 · A	19	47	35→55	50	48	217/282/280	64	277	2	11	21%	8%	56	-1.3	202/255/277	75	265	6	7	24%	6%	44	-2.1	229/304/413	184	278	20	12	24%	9%	99	+1.3
✕Nelson Quiroz 2021 · A	19	44	37→40	47→40	45	209/268/279	70	271	5	6	24%	7%	50	-1.7	225/289/328	103	278	7	5	20%	8%	72	-0.2	255/307/326	71	293	2	0	13%	6%	74	-0.0
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→46	41→45	56→55	43	214/285/313	99	288	7	14	27%	7%	68	-0.5	203/314/320	117	299	9	23	31%	12%	83	+0.6	201/310/335	134	289	10	26	30%	12%	81	+0.3
✕Jason Martin 2015 · A	19	45→49	36→60	49→50	48	208/271/288	80	271	1	11	23%	8%	53	-1.5	214/268/335	121	290	11	12	28%	7%	65	-0.7	220/286/421	201	269	27	8	29%	8%	94	+0.8
✕Hank Conger 2007 · A	19	46→56	40→50	54→45	44	222/273/324	102	287	6	6	24%	6%	64	-0.8	243/281/378	135	290	15	6	21%	5%	82	+0.5	255/295/391	136	297	16	4	20%	5%	91	+0.7
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2022 · A	19	39	40→45	46→45	47	181/281/275	94	294	7	6	37%	11%	57	-1.2	183/259/259	76	293	5	6	36%	9%	43	-2.2	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→43	42→55	53→50	44	188/268/290	102	278	10	11	34%	8%	55	-1.4	201/284/321	120	321	11	16	37%	9%	69	-0.4	229/308/399	169	310	21	18	31%	9%	95	+0.9
●Angel Genao 2023 · A	19	45→55	37→50	51→50	47	213/285/285	72	291	5	12	27%	8%	59	-1.1	243/293/354	111	312	8	11	23%	6%	80	+0.4	264/318/398	134	323	11	13	21%	7%	100	+1.2
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Iverson Leonardo 2021 · A	19	45	40→50	47→50	44	211/284/318	107	303	5	9	30%	8%	68	-0.5	190/267/305	115	300	11	8	37%	8%	59	-1.1	154/245/264	110	254	11	8	41%	8%	37	-0.7
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7