Jakson Gamboa

P FCL Red Sox

Age 20 RHP 6'3" / 186 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECTFG #942

ETA2028FG ETA2031MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	18	ROKDSL Red Sox R…	8	8	17	1.08	2.80	19.4%	10.4%	—	K 13.2% · BB 13.1% · FIP 3.64
2026	19	ROKBOS	10	5	23	3.91	4.40	24.0%	17.3%	—	K 16.3% · BB 21.6% · FIP 5.94
2027PROJ	20	MLBBOS	5	5	27	5.70	5.70	19.5%	17.7%	-0.2
2028PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBBOS	3	3	14	5.39	5.28	20.5%	15.3%	-0.1

Next 2 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Command45FB velo55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsChris Viall (age 20) · Eriq Swan (age 22) · Eddy Peralta (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 141133vR 125

ERA5.70

FIP5.70

K%19.5%

BB%17.7%

K-BB%1.8%

Proj IP27

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 27 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4050

CMD2045

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	8	8	17	67	13	7	0	100%	2.1	13.2%	13.1%	0.1%	0.0%	1.08	3.64	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	8	8	17	67	13	7	0	100%	2.1	13.2%	13.1%	0.1%	0.0%	1.08	3.64	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	8	8	17	67	13	7	0	100%	2.1	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	0.0%	1.08	2.80	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	10	5	23	104	25	18	2	50%	2.3	16.3%	21.6%	-5.3%	2.7%	3.91	5.94	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	10	5	23	104	25	18	2	50%	2.3	16.3%	21.6%	-5.3%	2.7%	3.91	5.94	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	10	5	23	104	25	18	2	50%	2.3	24.0%	17.3%	6.7%	1.9%	3.91	4.40	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	20	MLB	BOS	5	5	27	114	22	20	3	100%	5.4	19.5%	17.7%	1.8%	3.0%	5.70	5.70	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BOS	5	5	28	119	24	18	3	100%	5.6	20.5%	15.3%	5.2%	2.9%	5.39	5.28	-0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	BOS	3	3	14	59	12	9	2	100%	4.7	20.5%	15.3%	5.2%	2.9%	5.39	5.28	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	14	58	12	9	2	100%	4.6	20.5%	15.3%	5.2%	2.9%	5.39	4.90	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		41	41	200	844	174	130	29	100%	4.8	20.5%	15.3%	5.2%	2.9%	5.39	4.90	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		18	13	40	171	26	31	3	72%	2.2	15.1%	18.3%	-3.2%	1.6%	2.72	5.04	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	66	200	862	130	158	14	72%	2.2	15.1%	18.3%	-3.2%	1.6%	2.72	5.04	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jakson Gamboa (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.70	19.5%	17.7%	3.0%	—	5.28	20.5%	5.2%	28	-0.42	—	—	—
Chris Viall R 2016 · 5.86 FIP	20	SP-	5.86	18.9%	21.9%	2.9%	.314	5.06	21.3%	5.8%	88	-0.80	4.89	108	91
Eriq Swan R 2024 · 4.85 FIP	22	SP-	4.85	19.7%	17.3%	2.2%	.371	5.28	19.7%	0.9%	109	+0.43	4.85	132	84
Eddy Peralta R 2023 · 4.65 FIP	20	SP-	4.65	22.0%	19.8%	1.6%	.342	3.96	21.0%	1.7%	86	-0.69	3.73	117	84
Wilian Bormie R 2023 · 5.84 FIP	22	SP-	5.84	21.6%	20.4%	3.6%	.275	4.13	23.2%	9.3%	203	-1.71	3.51	226	84
Keegan Zinn R 2024 · 6.40 FIP	19	SP-	6.40	19.1%	19.5%	4.4%	.318	5.80	19.0%	-1.9%	112	-0.60	4.88	145	84
Jace Beck R 2021 · 5.13 FIP	21	SP-	5.13	21.1%	23.7%	1.5%	.347	5.32	25.7%	2.8%	50	+0.19	4.03	216	83
Junior Mieses R 2019 · 4.87 FIP	19	SP-	4.87	19.9%	19.2%	1.9%	.296	6.10	18.9%	-1.2%	134	+1.23	4.87	236	82
Marco Jimenez R 2022 · 5.27 FIP	22	SP-	5.27	19.6%	17.7%	2.9%	.372	3.89	18.3%	6.7%	148	-1.38	3.36	183	82
Wellington Aracena R 2024 · 5.43 FIP	19	SP-	5.43	18.9%	24.7%	1.5%	.343	3.94	20.0%	4.8%	196	-1.49	3.20	304	80
Jackson Fristoe R 2023 · 6.07 FIP	22	SP-	6.07	17.0%	24.2%	2.5%	.258	6.12	15.3%	-2.9%	112	+0.05	4.81	139	80
Luis Rujano R 2023 · 4.68 FIP	20	SW	4.68	17.1%	16.6%	1.7%	.309	4.71	17.6%	1.2%	150	+0.03	4.54	203	79
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	79
Kyle Larsen R 2024 · 5.54 FIP	21	SP-	5.54	15.8%	17.9%	2.8%	.274	4.95	19.9%	6.2%	83	-0.59	4.83	143	79
Jhoster Baez R 2024 · 4.57 FIP	19	SP-	4.57	17.3%	14.8%	1.9%	.283	5.93	15.9%	-5.0%	73	+1.36	4.57	110	78
Rubén Menes R 2023 · 6.12 FIP	21	SP-	6.12	13.1%	21.9%	2.5%	.257	4.94	15.6%	2.1%	100	-1.18	3.39	112	78
Alfred Vega R 2021 · 4.56 FIP	20	SP-	4.56	20.5%	16.0%	2.1%	.203	4.66	13.4%	0.6%	81	+0.10	2.07	234	78
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	77
Jaydenn Estanista R 2022 · 5.61 FIP	20	SW	5.61	20.2%	16.9%	3.8%	.172	5.14	20.6%	2.4%	123	-0.47	4.59	230	77
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	77
Jesus Tillero R 2024 · 5.94 FIP	18	SP-	5.94	13.3%	18.0%	3.1%	.274	5.23	14.8%	3.8%	129	-0.71	2.26	180	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	20.0%	16.4%	1.14	5.54
Brian Bruney ('12)	1.3	43	21.2%	15.8%	0.94	4.68
Matt Anderson ('05)	1.3	51	19.3%	13.5%	1.05	5.19
Doug Creek ('05)	1.4	58	22.2%	15.1%	1.52	5.32
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*