Jakson Gamboa — OGILVIE

Jakson Gamboa P FCL Red Sox

Age 19 RHP 6'3" / 186 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 9 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.75

FIP4.75

K%21.2%

BB%11.5%

K-BB%9.8%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 9 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	8	8	17	67	13	7	0	100%	2.1	13.2%	13.1%	0.1%	0.0%	1.08	3.64	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	8	8	17	67	13	7	0	100%	2.1	13.2%	13.1%	0.1%	0.0%	1.08	3.64	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	8	8	17	67	13	7	0	100%	2.1	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	0.0%	1.08	2.80	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	10	5	23	104	25	18	2	50%	2.3	16.3%	21.6%	-5.3%	2.7%	3.91	5.94	—
YTD	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	10	5	23	104	25	18	2	50%	2.3	16.3%	21.6%	-5.3%	2.7%	3.91	5.94	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	BOS	10	5	23	104	25	18	2	50%	2.3	24.0%	17.3%	6.7%	1.9%	3.91	4.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BOS	4	4	24	100	22	11	3	100%	5.9	21.9%	10.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.56	+0.1
2027	20	MLB CTX	BOS	2	2	12	51	11	5	1	100%	6.0	21.9%	10.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.56	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		3	3	12	49	11	5	1	100%	3.9	21.9%	10.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.17	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		43	43	200	844	190	86	17	100%	4.6	21.9%	10.5%	11.3%	2.9%	4.62	4.17	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		18	13	40	171	26	31	3	72%	2.2	15.1%	18.3%	-3.2%	1.6%	2.72	5.04	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		91	66	200	862	130	158	14	72%	2.2	15.1%	18.3%	-3.2%	1.6%	2.72	5.04	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jakson Gamboa (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.75	21.2%	11.5%	2.9%	—	4.56	21.9%	11.3%	24	-0.19	—	—	—
Fraynel Nova R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	20	SP-	3.83	16.4%	7.9%	2.0%	.296	4.17	14.9%	4.9%	110	+0.34	3.38	129	81
Luis Victorino R 2022 · 4.26 FIP	19	SP-	4.26	18.9%	12.8%	2.1%	.301	4.98	15.9%	-5.0%	84	+0.72	4.26	149	80
Deretd Parra R 2019 · 5.29 FIP	19	SP-	5.29	16.8%	10.9%	4.1%	.295	3.85	15.7%	2.3%	83	-1.44	2.79	161	79
Edwin Jimenez R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	19	SP-	4.03	19.3%	8.9%	2.6%	.330	4.79	16.5%	8.0%	277	+0.76	4.03	406	78
Tahnaj Thomas R 2018 · 5.06 FIP	19	SP-	5.06	23.0%	15.6%	3.5%	.268	6.04	17.0%	2.7%	61	+0.98	3.81	214	78
Alimber Santa R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	18	SW	4.85	17.0%	11.4%	3.2%	.304	5.08	20.9%	1.8%	125	+0.23	3.32	274	78
Nicholas Economos R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	20	SP-	4.95	15.3%	10.7%	3.3%	.233	5.28	10.4%	0.6%	57	+0.33	4.40	223	77
Jose Morban R 2017 · 4.42 FIP	19	SP-	4.42	18.7%	11.2%	2.7%	.333	3.98	16.9%	5.8%	61	-0.44	3.98	178	77
Carlos Jimenez R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	19	SP-	4.08	20.6%	12.9%	2.0%	.274	5.21	20.4%	-0.0%	141	+1.13	4.07	257	77
Richard Fernandez R 2022 · 5.10 FIP	19	SP	5.10	15.1%	9.3%	3.8%	.309	4.25	16.5%	-0.2%	85	-0.85	3.66	137	77
Aneury Lora R 2022 · 3.95 FIP	18	SP	3.95	16.6%	11.1%	1.5%	.339	3.72	15.1%	5.9%	114	-0.23	3.69	192	76
Ricardo Yan R 2022 · 4.00 FIP	19	SP	4.00	20.5%	14.6%	1.4%	.271	4.43	20.2%	4.3%	211	+0.43	3.62	300	76
Reibyn Corona R 2021 · 5.02 FIP	19	SP-	5.02	17.0%	13.1%	3.1%	.290	5.53	14.5%	1.7%	63	+0.51	4.48	190	76
Jharold Clemente R 2023 · 4.97 FIP	20	SP	4.97	17.5%	13.6%	3.0%	.258	5.11	13.3%	4.3%	92	+0.14	4.09	116	76
Henson Leal R 2023 · 5.16 FIP	19	SP-	5.16	17.6%	10.0%	4.2%	.408	4.05	17.7%	7.8%	146	-1.11	3.49	193	75
Chad Donato R 2017 · 3.85 FIP	22	SP-	3.85	20.9%	11.4%	2.0%	.333	3.99	21.4%	12.6%	184	+0.14	2.89	439	75
Miguel Alfonseca R 2021 · 4.19 FIP	21	SP-	4.19	18.3%	12.1%	2.0%	.400	5.36	14.9%	-0.9%	92	+1.17	4.19	123	75
Ryan Fernandez R 2018 · 4.44 FIP	20	SP-	4.44	19.2%	6.8%	3.8%	.357	3.37	20.8%	13.2%	53	-1.07	3.02	360	75
Sean Paul Liñan R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	18	SP-	4.05	17.7%	8.3%	2.5%	.324	4.30	22.1%	10.2%	210	+0.25	3.29	272	75
Tyler Owens R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	20	SP-	4.49	17.0%	9.6%	2.9%	.408	3.95	18.8%	9.3%	179	-0.54	3.36	269	74