Henson Leal
P
Columbia Fireflies
Age 22
RHP
6'1" / 176 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127118vR 109
ERA4.77
FIP4.77
K%17.8%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%8.1%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 105 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL KC Glass | 12 | 0 | 23 | 103 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 11.9% | 12.1% | -0.3% | 1.8% | 3.91 | 4.62 | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL KC Glass | 12 | 0 | 23 | 103 | 18 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.9 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 1.0% | 3.91 | 3.40 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 10 | 5 | 24 | 112 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 50% | 2.4 | 17.6% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 4.12 | 5.44 | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 10 | 5 | 24 | 112 | 29 | 9 | 3 | 50% | 2.4 | 25.9% | 8.0% | 17.9% | 2.7% | 4.12 | 3.43 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 28 | 125 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 18.1% | 14.4% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 5.08 | 6.45 | — |
| 2024 | 20 | MIX | 2 levels | 17 | 0 | 28 | 125 | 29 | 14 | 5 | 0% | 1.7 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 4.0% | 5.08 | 4.83 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 41 | 1 | 68 | 296 | 74 | 21 | 4 | 2% | 1.7 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 1.5% | 3.69 | 3.42 | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 41 | 1 | 68 | 296 | 74 | 21 | 4 | 2% | 1.7 | 25.0% | 7.1% | 17.9% | 1.4% | 3.69 | 2.62 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 27 | 0 | 52 | 221 | 53 | 17 | 3 | 0% | 1.9 | 17.7% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 1.8% | 4.64 | 3.72 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | 50 | 0 | 52 | 222 | 39 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.77 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 17.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 2.9% | 4.77 | 4.77 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 22 | MLB | KC | — | — | 105 | 443 | 92 | 39 | 9 | — | — | 20.9% | 8.7% | 12.2% | 2.1% | 4.71 | 4.25 | +1.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 52 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 44 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.65 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | KC | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 47 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | KC | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | KC | 54 | 0 | 57 | 239 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | KC | 53 | 0 | 56 | 236 | 49 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | KC | 26 | 0 | 27 | 114 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.65 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | KC | 37 | 0 | 39 | 165 | 33 | 15 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.9% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 2.8% | 4.54 | 4.48 | +0.0 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | KC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 40 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 4.46 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | KC | 47 | 0 | 49 | 207 | 43 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 8.9% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 4.42 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | KC | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.7% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.43 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 201 | 0 | 212 | 893 | 182 | 80 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.07 | +3.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 76 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.07 | +3.1 | ||
| Career | — | 107 | 6 | 196 | 857 | 149 | 87 | 22 | 6% | 1.8 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.35 | +2.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 109 | 6 | 200 | 874 | 152 | 88 | 23 | 6% | 1.8 | 17.3% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 2.6% | 4.22 | 4.35 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Henson Leal (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.77 | 17.8% | 9.7% | 2.9% | — | 4.50 | 19.8% | 10.7% | 167 | -0.27 | — | — | — |
| Matt Frawley R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.21 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.7% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.27 | 139 | 91 |
| Dylan Simmons R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.73 | 17.8% | 9.4% | 1.7% | .295 | 5.04 | 12.7% | 0.6% | 74 | +1.31 | 3.73 | 125 | 90 |
| Matt Pidich R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.13 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 115 | -0.29 | 4.10 | 196 | 90 |
| Chase Centala R 2027 · 4.34 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.34 | 16.1% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .270 | 4.16 | 17.4% | 10.8% | 55 | -0.18 | 4.16 | 124 | 90 |
| Jack Carey R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.47 | 16.8% | 10.9% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 19.5% | 8.2% | 156 | -0.08 | 3.71 | 250 | 90 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.74 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.74 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 3.8% | .298 | 4.94 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 103 | +0.20 | 4.74 | 149 | 89 |
| Jayson McKinley R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.41 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .308 | 3.66 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 134 | -0.75 | 2.33 | 173 | 89 |
| Anyelo Leclerc R 2027 · 4.97 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.97 | 16.2% | 9.8% | 3.6% | .326 | 5.13 | 15.9% | 6.1% | 96 | +0.16 | 4.97 | 140 | 89 |
| Luke Bell R 2027 · 3.89 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.89 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 2.3% | .295 | 5.85 | 13.1% | 1.3% | 66 | +1.96 | 3.89 | 110 | 89 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.09 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.78 | 22.4% | 14.4% | 89 | -0.31 | 2.36 | 189 | 89 |
| Matt Anderson R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.02 | 17.4% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .288 | 3.00 | 17.5% | 10.7% | 62 | -1.02 | 3.00 | 129 | 88 |
| Peyton Stumbo R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 22 | SU | 5.02 | 19.0% | 10.4% | 4.0% | .326 | 4.77 | 15.5% | 7.4% | 167 | -0.25 | 4.15 | 235 | 88 |
| Colby Morris R 2028 · 4.23 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.23 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | .291 | 5.76 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.53 | 4.23 | 105 | 88 |
| Blaze Pontes R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 1.7% | .330 | 5.09 | 10.1% | -1.9% | 168 | +1.43 | 3.37 | 230 | 88 |
| Tyler Schoff R 2027 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 19.6% | 10.8% | 2.5% | .350 | 3.78 | 23.8% | 15.7% | 93 | -0.38 | 2.79 | 164 | 88 |
| David Garner R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.94 | 21.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .282 | 4.65 | 19.8% | 5.2% | 98 | +0.71 | 3.94 | 154 | 88 |
| Brett Standlee R 2027 · 4.00 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.00 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .322 | 4.33 | 17.0% | 8.9% | 75 | +0.33 | 4.00 | 128 | 88 |
| Craig Missigman R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.92 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 1.8% | .270 | 5.27 | 19.2% | 10.4% | 53 | +1.35 | 3.92 | 124 | 88 |
| Tyler Zombro R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.37 | 14.6% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.67 | 15.7% | 12.7% | 134 | -1.70 | 2.25 | 172 | 88 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.69 | 17.9% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .267 | 4.27 | 12.6% | 0.7% | 58 | -0.42 | 3.60 | 138 | 88 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 6 | 55 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 1.09 | 4.54 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Bryan Shaw ('23) | 8 | 64 | 21.4% | 9.4% | 1.12 | 4.19 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Scott Oberg ('19) | 5 | 51 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 0.91 | 3.85 |