Henson Leal — OGILVIE

Henson Leal P Columbia Fireflies

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 176 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2029

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.78

FIP4.78

K%17.8%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%8.1%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL KC Glass	12	0	23	103	18	10	1	0%	1.9	11.9%	12.1%	-0.3%	1.5%	3.91	4.48	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL KC Glass	12	0	23	103	18	10	1	0%	1.9	17.5%	9.7%	7.8%	1.0%	3.91	3.40	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	10	5	24	112	29	9	3	50%	2.4	17.6%	10.0%	7.6%	4.2%	4.12	5.16	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	10	5	24	112	29	9	3	50%	2.4	17.6%	10.0%	7.6%	4.2%	4.12	5.16	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	10	5	24	112	29	9	3	50%	2.4	25.9%	8.0%	17.9%	2.7%	4.12	3.43	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	28	125	29	14	5	0%	1.7	18.1%	14.4%	3.7%	5.7%	5.08	6.51	—
2024	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	28	125	29	14	5	0%	1.7	18.1%	14.4%	3.7%	5.7%	5.08	6.51	—
2024	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	28	125	29	14	5	0%	1.7	23.2%	11.2%	12.0%	4.0%	5.08	4.83	—
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	41	1	68	296	74	21	4	2%	1.7	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	1.6%	3.69	3.49	—
2025	21	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	41	1	68	296	74	21	4	2%	1.7	18.5%	8.4%	10.1%	1.6%	3.69	3.49	—
2025	21	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	41	1	68	296	74	21	4	2%	1.7	25.0%	7.1%	17.9%	1.4%	3.69	2.62	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	57	247	55	21	3	0%	1.9	16.5%	10.0%	6.4%	1.6%	4.89	3.85	—
YTD	22	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	30	0	57	247	55	21	3	0%	1.9	16.5%	10.0%	6.4%	1.6%	4.89	3.85	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A RAW	KC	30	0	57	247	55	21	3	0%	1.9	22.3%	8.5%	13.8%	1.2%	4.89	2.96	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	269	51	25	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.2%	9.8%	2.8%	4.65	4.60	-0.0
2028	24	MLB MLE	KC	62	0	65	276	55	25	8	0%	1.1	19.9%	9.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.54	4.49	+0.0
2029	25	MLB MLE	KC	63	0	66	280	57	25	8	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.9%	11.6%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	KC	63	0	66	280	58	25	8	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	2.8%	4.42	4.40	+0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	KC	62	0	65	275	57	25	8	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	KC	60	0	63	267	55	24	8	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.5%	3.0%	4.48	4.52	+0.0
2027	23	MLB CTX	KC	30	0	31	131	25	12	4	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.2%	9.8%	2.8%	4.65	4.60	-0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	KC	44	0	46	194	39	17	5	0%	1.0	19.9%	9.0%	10.9%	2.8%	4.54	4.49	+0.0
2029	25	MLB CTX	KC	51	0	54	228	47	20	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	8.9%	11.6%	2.8%	4.46	4.42	+0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	KC	55	0	58	245	51	22	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	8.9%	11.9%	2.8%	4.42	4.40	+0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	KC	56	0	59	249	52	22	7	0%	1.1	20.7%	8.9%	11.8%	2.9%	4.43	4.43	+0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	KC	55	0	58	245	50	22	7	0%	1.1	20.6%	9.1%	11.5%	3.0%	4.48	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		291	0	306	1290	263	116	37	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.0%	11.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.08	+1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	172	76	24	0%	1.1	20.4%	9.0%	11.4%	2.9%	4.48	4.08	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		110	6	201	883	150	91	22	5%	1.8	17.0%	10.3%	6.6%	2.5%	4.31	4.34	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		110	6	200	880	150	91	22	5%	1.8	17.0%	10.3%	6.6%	2.5%	4.31	4.34	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Henson Leal (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.78	17.8%	9.7%	2.9%	—	4.50	19.8%	10.8%	195	-0.28	—	—	—
Matt Frawley R 2018 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	19.5%	10.0%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	2.25	139	91
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	90
Jack Carey R 2022 · 4.77 FIP	22	SU	4.77	16.8%	10.9%	3.1%	.333	4.31	19.5%	8.2%	156	-0.46	3.79	250	90
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	89
Anyelo Leclerc R 2015 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	16.2%	9.8%	3.7%	.326	4.65	15.9%	6.1%	96	-0.35	4.65	140	89
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	89
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	89
Carlos Torres R 2023 · 4.10 FIP	22	SU	4.10	15.2%	9.0%	2.1%	.315	4.39	15.2%	8.6%	125	+0.29	3.71	187	88
Craig Missigman R 2016 · 4.01 FIP	22	SU	4.01	19.2%	11.4%	2.0%	.270	5.01	19.2%	10.4%	53	+1.00	4.01	124	88
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	88
Tyler Schoff R 2022 · 4.25 FIP	23	SU	4.25	19.6%	10.8%	2.6%	.350	3.72	23.8%	15.7%	93	-0.53	3.69	190	88
Matt Anderson R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	23	SU	3.84	17.4%	7.5%	2.3%	.288	2.99	17.5%	10.7%	62	-0.85	2.99	129	88
Brian Glowicki R 2018 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	17.4%	8.8%	2.1%	.254	3.71	22.4%	14.4%	89	-0.20	2.31	189	88
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	88
Matthew Gorst R 2017 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	15.8%	7.0%	2.7%	.269	3.89	16.6%	8.0%	130	-0.24	3.20	199	88
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	88
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	88
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	87
Blaze Pontes R 2023 · 3.61 FIP	23	SU	3.61	18.2%	9.4%	1.6%	.330	4.79	11.3%	-0.9%	187	+1.18	3.37	248	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	63	20.0%	9.1%	1.10	4.53
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93