Blaze Pontes
P
Midland RockHounds
+0.0
WAR
Age 26
RHP
5'10" / 195 lbs
AA
peak 0.2 · 2026
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%17.8%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%7.6%
IP63
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
STUF3030
CTRL4040
CMD3030
K†3040
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Stockton Ports | 6 | 0 | 8 | 36 | 5 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A | Stockton Ports | 39 | 1 | 61 | 265 | 65 | 21 | 3 | 18.2% | 9.4% | 1.6% | 3.23 | 3.61 | +0.9 |
| 2024 | 24 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 26 | 10 | 88 | 406 | 44 | 40 | 11 | 8.3% | 11.3% | 4.0% | 7.36 | 6.01 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 25 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | 42 | 0 | 50 | 217 | 38 | 21 | 0 | 13.5% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 1.79 | 3.37 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 4 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 3.60 | — | — |
| ROS | 26 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 63 | 265 | 41 | 32 | 7 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 5.21 | 5.21 | -0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 26 | MLB | OAK | — | — | 68 | 282 | 44 | 32 | 7 | 15.5% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 5.09 | 4.83 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 62 | 263 | 42 | 31 | 7 | 16.2% | 11.9% | 2.7% | 5.13 | 5.13 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | OAK | 11 | 11 | 61 | 259 | 43 | 31 | 7 | 16.7% | 11.8% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | OAK | 60 | — | 60 | 253 | 43 | 30 | 7 | 16.9% | 11.7% | 2.8% | 5.08 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | OAK | 58 | — | 58 | 245 | 41 | 29 | 7 | 16.8% | 11.8% | 2.9% | 5.11 | 5.15 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | OAK | 56 | — | 56 | 237 | 39 | 28 | 7 | 16.6% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 5.18 | 5.22 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | OAK | 54 | — | 54 | 228 | 37 | 27 | 7 | 16.3% | 12.1% | 3.1% | 5.26 | 5.31 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | OAK | 52 | — | 52 | 217 | 35 | 27 | 7 | 16.0% | 12.2% | 3.1% | 5.35 | 5.41 | -0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | OAK | 49 | — | 49 | 206 | 32 | 26 | 7 | 15.7% | 12.4% | 3.2% | 5.45 | 5.52 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 30 | 25 | 7 | 15.3% | 12.7% | 3.4% | 5.56 | 5.64 | -0.4 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 27 | 23 | 6 | 14.8% | 12.9% | 3.5% | 5.69 | 5.77 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 117 | 11 | 213 | 941 | 119 | 97 | 21 | 12.7% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 4.82 | 4.58 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 110 | 10 | 200 | 885 | 112 | 91 | 20 | 12.7% | 10.3% | 2.3% | 4.82 | 4.58 | +1.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Blaze Pontes (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.21 | 15.3% | 12.2% | 2.7% | — | 5.11 | 16.6% | 4.7% | 183 | -0.10 | — | — | — |
| Julian Arballo R 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.14 | 15.1% | 13.8% | 2.9% | .335 | 4.48 | 12.6% | 0.6% | 116 | -0.66 | 4.42 | 214 | 90 |
| Roman Phansalkar R 2026 · 5.36 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.36 | 15.8% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .294 | 4.33 | 18.2% | 3.7% | 31 | -1.03 | 4.33 | 164 | 89 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2027 · 4.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.29 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 2.1% | .296 | 3.94 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.35 | 3.68 | 146 | 89 |
| Brad Allen R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.27 | 14.0% | 12.6% | 1.4% | .315 | 5.86 | 14.7% | 1.5% | 87 | +1.59 | 4.27 | 149 | 89 |
| Tyler Mizenko R 2026 · 5.14 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.14 | 13.3% | 10.2% | 3.4% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.68 | 104 | 89 |
| Raul Fernandez R 2026 · 4.35 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.35 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .270 | 5.55 | 20.4% | 6.2% | 38 | +1.20 | 4.02 | 165 | 87 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.52 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.5% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 169 | 87 |
| Josh Zeid R 2028 · 4.13 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.13 | 16.6% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .302 | 5.19 | 16.9% | 5.7% | 194 | +1.06 | 4.13 | 265 | 87 |
| Brad Schreiber R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.23 | 17.3% | 12.7% | 1.8% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 171 | 87 |
| Grant Black R 2027 · 4.46 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.46 | 19.0% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .327 | 5.46 | 15.2% | 3.1% | 156 | +1.00 | 4.46 | 215 | 87 |
| Stephen Johnson R 2025 · 5.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 5.17 | 16.7% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.12 | 141 | 87 |
| David Goforth R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.06 | 17.4% | 9.8% | 2.2% | .287 | 4.58 | 14.1% | 3.6% | 184 | +0.52 | 4.06 | 256 | 87 |
| Confesor Lara R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.26 | 16.4% | 11.0% | 2.1% | .329 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.73 | 111 | 87 |
| Armando Rivero R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.26 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 2.69 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.57 | 2.69 | 125 | 87 |
| Mark Peterson R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.76 | 13.7% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .349 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.66 | 185 | 86 |
| Jake Christianson R 2025 · 4.95 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.95 | 13.5% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 188 | 86 |
| Todd Peterson R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.45 | 14.7% | 11.2% | 2.1% | .289 | 5.37 | 12.8% | -2.3% | 21 | +0.92 | 4.45 | 175 | 86 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.58 | 17.7% | 14.7% | 2.0% | .246 | 4.73 | 12.9% | -1.0% | 29 | +0.15 | 4.58 | 151 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2028 · 4.78 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.78 | 16.5% | 9.9% | 3.3% | .297 | 3.85 | 25.1% | 14.3% | 50 | -0.93 | 3.85 | 102 | 85 |
| Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2025 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.59 | 15.1% | 10.4% | 2.6% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.28 | 218 | 85 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.