Blaze Pontes — OGILVIE

Blaze Pontes P Midland RockHounds

Age 26 RHP 5'10" / 195 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION49 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 126

ERA5.77

FIP5.77

K%10.0%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%-3.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 55 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	6	0	8	36	5	2	1	0%	1.3	13.9%	5.6%	8.3%	2.8%	9.00	4.16	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	6	0	8	36	5	2	1	0%	1.3	13.9%	5.6%	8.3%	2.8%	9.00	4.22	—
2023	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	39	1	61	265	65	21	3	3%	1.6	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	1.6%	3.23	3.61	—
2023	23	A MLE	Stockton Ports	39	1	61	265	65	21	3	3%	1.6	18.2%	9.4%	8.8%	1.6%	3.23	3.61	—
2023	23	A RAW	Stockton Ports	39	1	61	265	65	21	3	3%	1.6	24.5%	7.9%	16.6%	1.1%	3.23	2.64	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	26	10	88	406	44	40	11	38%	3.4	8.3%	11.3%	-3.0%	3.9%	7.36	5.98	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	26	10	88	406	44	40	11	38%	3.4	8.3%	11.3%	-3.0%	3.9%	7.36	5.98	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	26	10	88	406	44	40	11	38%	3.4	10.8%	9.9%	1.0%	2.7%	7.36	5.09	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	42	0	50	217	38	21	0	0%	1.2	13.5%	11.1%	2.4%	0.0%	1.79	3.37	—
2025	25	A+ MLE	Lansing Lugnuts	42	0	50	217	38	21	0	0%	1.2	13.5%	11.1%	2.4%	0.0%	1.79	3.37	—
2025	25	A+ RAW	Lansing Lugnuts	42	0	50	217	38	21	0	0%	1.2	17.5%	9.7%	7.8%	0.0%	1.79	2.84	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	40	0	49	213	39	29	1	0%	1.2	14.5%	15.1%	-0.6%	0.6%	4.25	4.10	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	40	0	49	213	39	29	1	0%	1.2	14.5%	15.1%	-0.6%	0.6%	4.25	4.10	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	A+ RAW	OAK	11	0	18	71	15	7	0	0%	1.6	21.1%	9.9%	11.3%	0.0%	1.53	2.56	—
2026	26	AA RAW	OAK	29	0	31	142	24	22	1	0%	1.1	16.9%	15.5%	1.4%	0.7%	5.81	4.02	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	OAK	6	0	6	25	2	3	1	0%	1.0	10.0%	13.1%	-3.1%	2.7%	5.77	5.77	-0.1
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	OAK	—	—	55	238	41	32	2	—	—	17.4%	13.6%	3.9%	0.7%	4.42	4.28	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	OAK	74	0	78	329	37	42	9	0%	1.1	11.3%	12.8%	-1.5%	2.8%	5.65	5.66	-1.0
2028	28	MLB MLE	OAK	72	0	76	320	39	41	9	0%	1.1	12.1%	12.7%	-0.6%	2.9%	5.61	5.65	-0.9
2029	29	MLB MLE	OAK	69	0	72	305	38	39	9	0%	1.0	12.4%	12.7%	-0.3%	3.0%	5.64	5.71	-0.9
2030	30	MLB MLE	OAK	65	0	68	287	35	37	9	0%	1.0	12.4%	13.0%	-0.6%	3.2%	5.76	5.85	-1.0
2027	27	MLB CTX	OAK	28	0	29	122	14	16	3	0%	1.0	11.3%	12.8%	-1.5%	2.8%	5.65	5.66	-0.4
2028	28	MLB CTX	OAK	43	0	45	190	23	24	5	0%	1.0	12.1%	12.7%	-0.6%	2.9%	5.61	5.65	-0.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	OAK	49	0	51	215	27	27	7	0%	1.0	12.4%	12.7%	-0.3%	3.0%	5.64	5.71	-0.6
2030	30	MLB CTX	OAK	50	0	53	224	28	29	7	0%	1.1	12.4%	13.0%	-0.6%	3.2%	5.76	5.85	-0.7
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		170	0	179	755	92	97	23	0%	1.1	12.1%	12.8%	-0.7%	3.0%	5.67	5.35	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	103	108	26	0%	1.1	12.1%	12.8%	-0.7%	3.0%	5.67	5.35	-1.9
Career	—	MLE		153	11	256	1137	147	129	22	7%	1.7	12.9%	11.4%	1.6%	2.0%	4.74	4.52	-4.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		119	9	200	887	115	101	17	7%	1.7	12.9%	11.4%	1.6%	2.0%	4.74	4.52	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Blaze Pontes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.77	10.0%	13.1%	2.7%	—	5.67	11.9%	-0.8%	226	-0.10	—	—	—
Julian Arballo R 2015 · 5.13 FIP	27	SU	5.13	15.1%	13.8%	2.8%	.335	4.46	12.6%	0.6%	116	-0.67	4.45	214	83
Pat Light R 2017 · 4.63 FIP	26	SU	4.63	11.8%	14.1%	1.4%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	4.10	172	83
Trey Haley R 2016 · 4.98 FIP	26	SU	4.98	14.0%	16.5%	1.8%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	3.14	111	82
Jeff Soptic R 2016 · 5.52 FIP	25	SU	5.52	13.6%	15.3%	3.0%	.326	—	—	—	—	—	5.30	124	82
Mike Hepple R 2016 · 5.75 FIP	26	SU	5.75	11.1%	18.5%	2.3%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.46	116	82
Tyler Mizenko R 2016 · 5.15 FIP	26	SU	5.15	13.3%	10.2%	3.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	104	81
Mark Peterson R 2017 · 4.78 FIP	26	SU	4.78	13.7%	11.9%	2.4%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.65	185	81
Will Carter R 2019 · 4.93 FIP	26	SU	4.93	11.1%	14.3%	1.8%	.278	3.93	20.3%	4.6%	67	-1.00	3.15	335	80
Jason Jester R 2017 · 4.94 FIP	26	SU	4.94	11.9%	9.4%	3.0%	.311	2.88	17.6%	12.5%	60	-2.06	2.48	229	80
Norman Elenes R 2017 · 5.06 FIP	25	SU	5.06	10.4%	14.5%	1.8%	.324	5.35	7.8%	-1.5%	37	+0.29	3.87	169	80
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	80
Marc Magliaro R 2016 · 4.77 FIP	26	SU	4.77	9.1%	10.1%	2.1%	.302	3.98	17.1%	10.6%	110	-0.79	3.94	125	79
Aaron Cohn R 2023 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	11.1%	10.7%	4.1%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	5.72	106	78
Nick Highberger R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	25	SU	4.82	12.4%	13.3%	2.0%	.279	5.74	15.0%	-1.7%	95	+0.92	3.81	249	78
Tyler Burch R 2023 · 4.92 FIP	25	SU	4.92	15.0%	12.6%	2.7%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	119	78
Clate Schmidt R 2019 · 5.66 FIP	25	SU	5.66	13.5%	13.9%	3.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.51	160	78
Benjamin Sandoval R 2015 · 4.66 FIP	28	SU	4.66	8.6%	7.8%	2.4%	.253	5.16	5.8%	-5.7%	62	+0.50	4.66	146	78
John O'Reilly R 2022 · 4.97 FIP	26	SU	4.97	9.1%	9.0%	2.7%	.288	3.87	15.4%	7.7%	141	-1.10	3.20	346	77
Landon Tomkins R 2023 · 5.26 FIP	23	SU	5.26	6.2%	13.1%	1.9%	.281	3.97	15.9%	4.1%	166	-1.29	3.25	182	77
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	77

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	73	11.6%	12.9%	1.13	5.68
Eddie Butler ('18)	1.2	62	13.3%	9.8%	1.49	5.74
Dylan Covey ('23)	1.5	73	15.4%	9.9%	1.53	6.14
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99