John O'Reilly — OGILVIE

John O'Reilly P Rocket City Trash Pandas

Age 30 RHP 6'5" / 225 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%17.2%

BB%7.7%

K-BB%9.6%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	22	ROK MLE	Bristol Pirates	14	0	28	117	21	10	5	0%	2.0	12.2%	10.7%	1.5%	6.0%	5.86	6.71	—
2018	22	ROK RAW	Bristol Pirates	14	0	28	117	21	10	5	0%	2.0	17.9%	8.5%	9.4%	4.3%	5.86	5.02	—
2019	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	49	213	31	15	4	0%	1.6	10.8%	8.4%	2.4%	2.5%	1.46	4.60	—
2019	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	49	213	31	15	4	0%	1.6	14.6%	7.0%	7.5%	1.9%	1.46	3.81	—
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	3	68	308	35	15	4	8%	1.8	9.5%	5.2%	4.3%	1.4%	5.85	3.72	—
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	3	68	308	35	15	4	8%	1.8	11.4%	4.9%	6.5%	1.3%	5.85	3.50	—
2022	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	41	0	62	279	29	24	7	0%	1.5	9.1%	9.0%	0.1%	2.7%	5.84	4.97	—
2022	26	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	41	0	62	279	29	24	7	0%	1.5	10.4%	8.6%	1.8%	2.5%	5.84	4.80	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	50	2	69	332	55	33	9	4%	1.4	13.8%	8.9%	4.8%	2.7%	5.74	4.57	—
2023	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	50	2	69	332	55	33	9	4%	1.4	13.8%	8.9%	4.8%	2.7%	5.74	4.57	—
2023	27	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	50	2	69	332	55	33	9	4%	1.4	16.6%	9.9%	6.6%	2.7%	5.74	4.64	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	12	79	342	69	21	9	44%	2.9	17.0%	6.7%	10.3%	1.2%	4.65	3.20	—
2024	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	12	79	342	69	21	9	44%	2.9	17.0%	6.7%	10.3%	1.2%	4.65	3.20	—
2024	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	12	79	342	69	21	9	44%	2.9	20.2%	6.1%	14.0%	2.6%	4.65	3.63	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	30	MLB	LAA	4	0	4	17	3	1	0	0%	1.0	17.2%	7.7%	9.6%	2.7%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	31	MLB MLE	LAA	43	0	45	190	33	15	6	0%	1.0	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.59	4.67	-0.1
2027	31	MLB CTX	LAA	13	0	14	59	10	5	2	0%	1.1	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.59	4.67	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		13	0	14	59	10	5	2	0%	1.1	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.59	4.29	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	142	71	28	0%	1.1	17.5%	8.2%	9.3%	3.0%	4.59	4.29	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		200	17	355	1591	196	124	37	8%	1.8	12.3%	7.8%	4.5%	2.4%	4.95	4.34	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	10	200	897	110	70	21	8%	1.8	12.3%	7.8%	4.5%	2.4%	4.95	4.34	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
John O'Reilly (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	17.2%	7.7%	2.7%	—	4.67	17.5%	9.3%	45	+0.18	—	—	—
Angel Castro R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	32	SU	4.50	15.9%	8.0%	3.1%	.268	4.28	13.6%	5.5%	231	-0.22	3.51	292	91
Tim Dillard R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	32	SW	3.58	15.9%	7.7%	1.5%	.330	3.85	16.7%	8.1%	144	+0.27	3.13	352	85
Edwin Jackson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	31	SU	3.77	17.5%	8.8%	1.9%	.244	4.71	17.6%	7.8%	377	+0.94	3.77	521	84
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	84
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	84
Logan Kensing R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	17.6%	8.8%	1.5%	.270	3.06	17.9%	10.0%	124	-0.50	2.73	172	84
Tanner Scheppers R 2017 · 4.86 FIP	30	SU	4.86	15.7%	6.7%	4.1%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	101	83
Yoanner Negrin R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	31	SW	3.79	15.1%	7.5%	1.9%	.256	3.29	15.0%	8.5%	270	-0.50	3.15	485	82
Chris Leroux R 2015 · 4.20 FIP	31	SU	4.20	15.2%	8.6%	2.4%	.279	4.08	13.5%	5.5%	140	-0.12	4.08	219	82
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Jim Johnson R 2015 · 3.34 FIP	32	SU	3.34	17.2%	6.2%	1.7%	.330	3.63	22.0%	14.1%	185	+0.29	2.56	251	80
Francisco Mendoza R 2016 · 3.81 FIP	28	SU	3.81	17.9%	7.7%	2.3%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	3.13	120	80
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	80
Ryan Doolittle R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	28	SU	4.38	13.9%	7.1%	2.8%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	101	80
Esteban Haro R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	30	SU	4.55	17.1%	10.2%	2.9%	.338	3.83	11.6%	6.3%	75	-0.72	3.76	164	79
Cody Satterwhite R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	30	SU	4.22	17.0%	7.1%	3.0%	.310	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	147	79
Collin Balester R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	29	SU	4.22	14.2%	9.3%	2.1%	.240	3.20	21.2%	15.4%	43	-1.02	3.20	116	79
Ivan Zavala R 2017 · 5.02 FIP	30	SU	5.02	12.8%	8.0%	3.6%	.286	5.15	12.7%	5.3%	61	+0.13	4.27	209	79
Bud Norris R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	30	SW	4.68	18.8%	8.2%	3.9%	.327	3.78	24.2%	15.5%	233	-0.90	3.51	316	79
Jason Urquidez R 2015 · 3.59 FIP	32	SU	3.59	15.6%	9.3%	1.1%	.386	1.81	25.5%	20.7%	90	-1.78	1.25	123	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	47	17.3%	7.9%	1.10	4.54
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45