John O'Reilly
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
AA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 48 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118109vR 100
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
K%20.4%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%11.7%
ROS IP48
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 48 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 14 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 2.0 | 12.2% | 10.7% | 1.5% | 6.0% | 5.86 | 6.71 | — |
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 14 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 2.0 | 17.9% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 5.86 | 5.02 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 49 | 213 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 10.8% | 8.4% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.46 | 4.59 | — |
| 2019 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 30 | 0 | 49 | 213 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 0% | 1.6 | 14.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 1.9% | 1.46 | 3.81 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 3 | 68 | 308 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 8% | 1.8 | 9.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 5.85 | 3.69 | — |
| 2021 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 38 | 3 | 68 | 308 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 8% | 1.8 | 11.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 5.85 | 3.50 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 41 | 0 | 62 | 279 | 29 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 9.1% | 9.0% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 5.84 | 4.95 | — |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 41 | 0 | 62 | 279 | 29 | 24 | 7 | 0% | 1.5 | 10.4% | 8.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 5.84 | 4.80 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 50 | 2 | 69 | 332 | 55 | 33 | 9 | 4% | 1.4 | 14.6% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 5.74 | 4.57 | — |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 50 | 2 | 69 | 332 | 55 | 33 | 9 | 4% | 1.4 | 16.6% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 2.7% | 5.74 | 4.64 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 12 | 79 | 342 | 69 | 21 | 9 | 44% | 2.9 | 17.0% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 1.3% | 4.65 | 3.22 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 12 | 79 | 342 | 69 | 21 | 9 | 44% | 2.9 | 20.2% | 6.1% | 14.0% | 2.6% | 4.65 | 3.63 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 46 | 0 | 48 | 204 | 41 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 8.7% | 11.7% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 40 | 0 | 42 | 175 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 36 | 0 | 38 | 161 | 32 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.55 | 0.0 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 20 | 0 | 21 | 89 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.1% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 3.2% | 4.63 | 4.76 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 3.5% | 4.83 | 4.98 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 57 | 0 | 60 | 254 | 51 | 24 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.42 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 170 | 80 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 9.6% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 200 | 17 | 355 | 1591 | 198 | 129 | 36 | 8% | 1.8 | 12.5% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 4.95 | 4.33 | +4.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 10 | 200 | 897 | 112 | 73 | 21 | 8% | 1.8 | 12.5% | 8.1% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 4.95 | 4.33 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John O'Reilly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 20.4% | 8.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.75 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 124 | +0.40 | — | — | — |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 83 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2029 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 83 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 83 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.69 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.8% | .244 | 4.74 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +1.05 | 3.69 | 521 | 82 |
| Logan Kensing R 2029 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 82 |
| Chris Martin R 2025 · 3.28 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.28 | 18.1% | 7.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 3.06 | 20.9% | 19.2% | 42 | -0.22 | 1.76 | 416 | 82 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 81 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 81 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 81 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2026 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 81 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 80 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 80 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 80 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.18 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .349 | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.74 | 3.07 | 227 | 80 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.86 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.86 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .289 | 4.49 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.63 | 2.36 | 172 | 80 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SU | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 80 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.20 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 0.9% | .333 | 3.74 | 14.4% | 6.6% | 110 | +0.54 | 3.20 | 244 | 79 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 79 |
| Francisco Mendoza R 2024 · 4.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.11 | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.8% | .344 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.13 | 120 | 79 |
| Adam Warren R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 8.5% | 2.8% | .288 | 4.75 | 20.6% | 9.9% | 86 | +0.99 | 2.71 | 392 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 43 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 1.19 | 4.55 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |