John O'Reilly
P
Rocket City Trash Pandas
+0.5
WAR
Age 30
RHP
6'5" / 225 lbs
AA
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.4%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%11.7%
IP69
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 22 | ROK | Bristol Pirates | 14 | 0 | 28 | 117 | 21 | 10 | 5 | 12.2% | 10.7% | 6.0% | 5.86 | 6.71 | -0.6 |
| 2019 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | 30 | 0 | 49 | 213 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 10.8% | 8.4% | 2.5% | 1.46 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 25 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 38 | 3 | 68 | 308 | 35 | 15 | 4 | 9.5% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 5.85 | 3.72 | +1.0 |
| 2022 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 41 | 0 | 62 | 279 | 29 | 24 | 7 | 9.1% | 9.0% | 2.7% | 5.84 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2023 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 50 | 2 | 69 | 332 | 55 | 33 | 9 | 14.6% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 5.74 | 4.67 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 28 | AAA | Salt Lake Bees | 27 | 12 | 79 | 342 | 69 | 21 | 9 | 17.0% | 6.7% | 1.3% | 4.65 | 3.20 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | LAA | 13 | 13 | 69 | 291 | 59 | 25 | 8 | 20.4% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 66 | 281 | 57 | 25 | 8 | 20.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | LAA | 12 | 12 | 64 | 269 | 55 | 24 | 8 | 20.4% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.46 | 4.50 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 33 | MLB | LAA | 11 | 11 | 61 | 257 | 52 | 24 | 8 | 20.2% | 9.2% | 3.0% | 4.54 | 4.59 | +0.3 |
| 2030 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 58 | — | 58 | 244 | 49 | 23 | 8 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 3.1% | 4.63 | 4.69 | +0.2 |
| 2031 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 55 | — | 55 | 231 | 45 | 22 | 7 | 19.6% | 9.7% | 3.2% | 4.74 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 51 | — | 51 | 216 | 41 | 21 | 7 | 19.1% | 9.9% | 3.3% | 4.86 | 4.95 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 200 | 17 | 355 | 1591 | 198 | 129 | 37 | 12.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 4.95 | 4.36 | +3.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 10 | 200 | 897 | 112 | 73 | 21 | 12.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | 4.95 | 4.36 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| John O'Reilly (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 20.4% | 8.7% | 2.7% | — | 4.50 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 191 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 89 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2027 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 86 |
| Esmil Rogers R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.44 | 18.5% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .348 | 2.85 | 21.7% | 17.9% | 40 | -0.59 | 2.85 | 199 | 86 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 85 |
| Jean Machi R 2029 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 85 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.72 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.6% | .287 | 3.88 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.16 | 3.38 | 129 | 85 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2027 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 85 |
| Drew Storen R 2025 · 3.81 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.81 | 19.5% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .289 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 10 | +0.51 | 2.26 | 172 | 85 |
| Jim Johnson R 2028 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.67 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.33 | 2.57 | 251 | 84 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2028 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 84 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 84 |
| Elian Leyva R 2026 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 84 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2028 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 84 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.24 | 22.2% | 11.1% | 2.9% | .349 | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 65 | -0.70 | 3.05 | 227 | 83 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 83 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2027 · 5.21 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.21 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.6% | .253 | 3.95 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.26 | 3.80 | 132 | 83 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.80 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 3.29 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.51 | 3.15 | 485 | 83 |
| Ryan Cook R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 83 |
| Joakim Soria R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.48 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .258 | 2.91 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.57 | 2.00 | 380 | 82 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2028 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 82 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.