Brett Standlee
P
Eugene Emeralds
+0.6
WAR
Age 27
RHP
6'4" / 223 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.6 · 2026
ERA4.36
FIP4.36
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.8%
BB%9.1%
K-BB%13.7%
IP75
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.6peak
2026
K†5555
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 22 | ROK | ACL Giants Orange | 9 | 0 | 9 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 1.00 | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 40 | 1 | 53 | 238 | 61 | 23 | 5 | 19.7% | 11.1% | 2.3% | 4.75 | 4.11 | +0.5 |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 39 | 2 | 75 | 327 | 72 | 23 | 9 | 17.0% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 4.68 | 4.48 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | SF | 14 | 14 | 75 | 317 | 72 | 29 | 10 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 74 | 312 | 71 | 29 | 9 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.38 | +0.6 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 72 | 305 | 69 | 28 | 9 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.40 | 4.42 | +0.5 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB | SF | 13 | 13 | 70 | 296 | 67 | 28 | 9 | 22.5% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.45 | 4.48 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 31 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 68 | 285 | 64 | 27 | 9 | 22.3% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.55 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 32 | MLB | SF | 12 | 12 | 65 | 274 | 60 | 26 | 9 | 22.0% | 9.6% | 3.3% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 33 | MLB | SF | 11 | 11 | 62 | 261 | 57 | 26 | 9 | 21.7% | 9.8% | 3.4% | 4.68 | 4.74 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 34 | MLB | SF | 59 | — | 59 | 248 | 53 | 25 | 9 | 21.4% | 10.0% | 3.5% | 4.78 | 4.85 | +0.1 |
| 2034 | 35 | MLB | SF | 55 | — | 55 | 234 | 49 | 24 | 8 | 21.0% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.89 | 4.97 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 36 | MLB | SF | 52 | — | 52 | 219 | 45 | 23 | 8 | 20.5% | 10.4% | 3.7% | 5.02 | 5.10 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 88 | 3 | 137 | 599 | 111 | 55 | 16 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.17 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 128 | 4 | 200 | 874 | 162 | 80 | 23 | 18.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.17 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brett Standlee (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.36 | 22.8% | 9.1% | 3.0% | — | 4.43 | 22.7% | 13.4% | 216 | +0.07 | — | — | — |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.80 | 22.9% | 8.0% | 3.0% | .295 | 3.70 | 12.4% | 5.2% | 127 | -0.10 | 3.17 | 269 | 94 |
| Jaye Chapman R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.34 | 21.6% | 8.5% | 1.8% | .276 | 4.07 | 20.3% | 11.3% | 85 | +0.73 | 3.25 | 150 | 89 |
| Taylor Williams R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.48 | 24.2% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.33 | 22.5% | 12.7% | 108 | +0.85 | 2.36 | 309 | 88 |
| Coleman Huntley III R 2027 · 3.91 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.91 | 20.2% | 7.4% | 2.9% | .348 | 3.55 | 23.4% | 13.2% | 86 | -0.36 | 2.38 | 160 | 88 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 87 |
| Steve Geltz R 2026 · 3.88 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.88 | 22.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .209 | 4.78 | 22.2% | 12.0% | 89 | +0.90 | 3.57 | 157 | 87 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2027 · 3.72 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.72 | 20.2% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .333 | 4.05 | 17.7% | 10.2% | 75 | +0.33 | 3.70 | 147 | 86 |
| Jarret Whorff R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.84 | 21.6% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 206 | 86 |
| Ryan Kelly R 2026 · 3.50 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.50 | 20.3% | 7.5% | 2.1% | .241 | 3.22 | 20.8% | 14.2% | 43 | -0.28 | 2.49 | 131 | 86 |
| Trevin Michael R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.82 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.8% | .230 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 149 | 86 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.86 | 27.3% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .280 | 4.05 | 28.5% | 17.2% | 107 | +0.19 | 3.02 | 363 | 85 |
| Simon Castro R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.26 | 26.4% | 8.5% | 2.4% | .320 | 3.48 | 26.0% | 17.6% | 128 | +0.22 | 3.07 | 185 | 85 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 85 |
| Cole Sulser R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.54 | 22.6% | 10.2% | 1.9% | .321 | 2.87 | 28.2% | 18.4% | 140 | -0.67 | 2.39 | 509 | 85 |
| Blake Smith R 2026 · 3.18 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.18 | 23.3% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .290 | 3.63 | 22.4% | 13.8% | 71 | +0.45 | 3.18 | 124 | 84 |
| Nolan Clenney R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.81 | 23.3% | 10.7% | 4.2% | .341 | 4.59 | 17.2% | 7.5% | 71 | -0.22 | 3.74 | 223 | 84 |
| José A. Váldez R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.55 | 21.6% | 8.3% | 4.0% | .325 | 4.15 | 18.8% | 6.4% | 153 | -0.40 | 4.02 | 328 | 84 |
| Ryan Garton R 2026 · 3.62 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.62 | 25.2% | 11.3% | 2.2% | .252 | 4.15 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 108 | +0.53 | 3.07 | 307 | 84 |
| Ryan Tepera R 2026 · 4.05 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.05 | 21.1% | 7.2% | 3.3% | .174 | 3.39 | 24.7% | 16.0% | 206 | -0.66 | 2.27 | 445 | 83 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2027 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 83 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.2 | $1.0M | +$0.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.1 | $0.5M | +$0.2M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $5M | — | — | — |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | — | — | — |
| Totals | $15M | $5M | -$11M | ||