Ryan Fernandez — OGILVIE

Ryan Fernandez P Memphis Redbirds

Age 28 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 90

ERA3.89

FIP3.87

K%25.4%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6565

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p9033.5%

p8128.0%

xwOBA vs

p720.291

SL (43%)

CT (4%)

CH (12%)

FB-1.9 (41%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	10	7	26	110	31	6	3	70%	2.6	19.2%	6.8%	12.3%	3.8%	3.46	4.44	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	10	7	26	110	31	6	3	70%	2.6	28.2%	5.5%	22.7%	2.7%	3.46	2.91	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	53	216	60	14	3	0%	2.2	20.8%	7.6%	13.2%	1.9%	2.39	3.37	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	53	216	60	14	3	0%	2.2	27.8%	6.5%	21.3%	1.4%	2.39	2.36	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	40	168	56	11	6	0%	1.1	26.0%	7.5%	18.6%	4.4%	4.31	4.25	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	40	168	56	11	6	0%	1.1	33.3%	6.5%	26.8%	3.6%	4.31	3.07	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	54	230	67	18	8	0%	1.3	22.8%	8.1%	14.7%	4.0%	4.14	4.39	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	54	230	67	18	8	0%	1.3	22.8%	8.1%	14.7%	4.0%	4.14	4.39	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	54	230	67	18	8	0%	1.3	29.1%	7.8%	21.3%	3.5%	4.14	3.54	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	62	0	67	285	71	27	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.5%	15.4%	1.5%	3.51	3.02	+1.2
2024	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	62	0	67	285	71	27	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.5%	15.4%	1.5%	3.51	3.02	+1.2
2024	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	62	0	67	285	71	27	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.5%	15.4%	1.4%	3.51	2.97	+1.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	65	287	83	34	7	0%	1.1	26.0%	11.1%	14.9%	2.7%	5.26	3.79	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	65	287	83	34	7	0%	1.1	26.0%	11.1%	14.9%	2.7%	5.26	3.79	+0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	65	287	83	34	7	0%	1.1	28.9%	11.8%	17.1%	2.4%	5.26	3.52	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			111	0	120	525	133	52	12	0%	1.1	25.3%	9.9%	15.4%	2.3%	4.58	3.48	+1.5
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	50	0	59	255	62	24	5	0%	1.2	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	2.1%	3.38	3.54	+0.7
YTD	28	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	50	0	59	255	62	24	5	0%	1.2	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	2.1%	3.38	3.54	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	28	AAA RAW	STL	33	0	36	155	34	13	3	0%	1.1	21.9%	8.4%	13.5%	1.9%	3.28	3.37	—
2026	28	MLB RAW	STL	17	0	23	100	28	11	2	0%	1.4	28.0%	11.0%	17.0%	2.0%	3.52	3.23	+0.4
SO FAR	28	MLB RAW	STL	17	0	23	100	28	11	2	0%	1.4	28.0%	11.0%	17.0%	2.0%	3.52	3.23	+0.4
ROS	28	MLB MLE	STL	5	0	5	23	6	2	1	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.6%	14.8%	2.9%	3.89	3.87	+0.0
ROS	28	MLB CTX	STL	5	0	5	21	5	2	1	0%	1.0	25.4%	10.6%	14.8%	2.9%	3.89	3.87	+0.0
2026 TOT	28	MLB MLE	STL	—	—	64	278	68	26	6	—	—	24.4%	9.5%	14.9%	2.0%	3.42	3.57	+0.8
FULL	28	MLB A+C	STL	—	—	28	120	68	26	6	—	—	56.6%	22.0%	34.5%	4.7%	7.72	3.70	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	STL	58	0	61	257	68	29	7	0%	1.0	26.7%	11.2%	15.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.25	+0.2
2028	30	MLB MLE	STL	54	0	57	242	63	28	7	0%	1.1	26.0%	11.5%	14.4%	3.1%	4.35	4.45	+0.1
2027	29	MLB CTX	STL	55	0	58	245	65	28	7	0%	1.1	26.7%	11.2%	15.4%	2.9%	4.19	4.25	+0.2
2028	30	MLB CTX	STL	51	0	54	228	59	26	7	0%	1.1	26.0%	11.5%	14.4%	3.1%	4.35	4.45	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		223	0	237	1021	263	108	27	0%	1.1	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	2.6%	4.41	3.71	+2.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	860	222	91	23	0%	1.1	25.8%	10.6%	15.2%	2.6%	4.41	3.71	+2.0
Career	—	MLE		284	7	363	1551	364	137	42	2%	1.3	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.7%	3.82	3.74	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	4	200	855	201	75	23	2%	1.3	23.5%	8.8%	14.7%	2.7%	3.82	3.74	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Fernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.19	27.0%	11.0%	2.9%	—	4.35	26.3%	15.0%	118	+0.16	—	—	—
Bryan Shaw R 2016 · 3.73 FIP	28	SU	3.73	25.1%	9.1%	2.9%	.277	3.83	21.1%	12.7%	203	+0.10	2.78	596	83
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	80
Jake Cousins R 2022 · 3.15 FIP	28	SU	3.15	30.9%	11.9%	2.1%	.265	3.86	30.9%	19.0%	65	+0.71	1.11	160	80
Trevor May R 2018 · 3.74 FIP	28	SU	3.74	26.1%	9.8%	2.9%	.291	3.47	31.9%	23.6%	150	-0.27	3.05	432	79
Daniel Hudson R 2015 · 3.35 FIP	28	SU	3.35	24.5%	7.9%	2.4%	.302	3.78	22.8%	13.6%	168	+0.43	1.68	468	79
Shane Greene R 2017 · 3.48 FIP	28	SU	3.48	25.8%	10.6%	2.2%	.253	3.86	23.4%	16.9%	154	+0.38	2.86	484	79
Tommy Kahnle R 2018 · 3.46 FIP	28	SU	3.46	29.2%	12.4%	2.3%	.353	2.99	35.5%	27.4%	61	-0.47	1.53	458	78
Michael Flynn R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	26.5%	11.2%	3.7%	.299	4.42	20.8%	10.2%	92	+0.11	3.89	168	78
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	78
Blake Treinen R 2016 · 3.32 FIP	28	SU	3.32	24.0%	9.5%	1.9%	.271	3.04	26.0%	17.7%	215	-0.28	1.53	547	78
Jon Edwards R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	31.7%	13.1%	2.4%	.264	2.40	30.3%	22.6%	30	-1.00	2.40	132	78
Brad Brach R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	29	SU	3.22	27.5%	10.8%	1.9%	.259	3.13	25.6%	17.1%	210	-0.09	2.69	410	77
Steven Wilson R 2023 · 4.12 FIP	28	SU	4.12	26.0%	11.9%	3.1%	.217	4.57	20.8%	10.9%	119	+0.45	3.64	328	76
Dayan Díaz R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	28	SU	3.45	25.1%	8.7%	2.5%	.358	3.96	29.4%	19.3%	16	+0.51	3.08	205	76
Neil Ramírez R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	28	SU	4.66	27.1%	12.5%	4.1%	.389	4.86	29.1%	19.7%	116	+0.20	3.21	220	76
Jonathan Broxton R 2015 · 3.67 FIP	31	SU	3.67	24.5%	8.2%	2.9%	.325	3.89	21.7%	13.5%	76	+0.22	3.67	137	76
Daniel Robert R 2023 · 3.51 FIP	28	SU	3.51	21.9%	10.7%	1.7%	.310	3.09	24.6%	16.4%	87	-0.42	2.32	186	76
Neftalí Feliz R 2016 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	28.0%	9.2%	5.0%	.236	5.02	17.1%	4.4%	138	+0.40	3.54	291	76
Hunter Strickland R 2017 · 3.34 FIP	28	SU	3.34	21.6%	9.3%	1.6%	.304	4.75	17.9%	9.1%	70	+1.41	2.30	523	76
Peyton Gray R 2021 · 4.27 FIP	26	SU	4.27	29.2%	14.1%	3.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	159	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	26.6%	11.3%	1.15	4.25
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Cisnero ('23)	1.1	42	24.8%	11.3%	0.94	3.84
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
Keegan Thompson ('24)	1.1	57	23.0%	11.3%	1.19	3.64
Robert Stephenson ('23)	1.7	57	26.2%	9.9%	1.39	4.33
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19