Ryan Fernandez
P
Memphis Redbirds
+0.1
WAR
INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.46
FIP4.17
xFIP3.18
SIERA3.08
K%25.2%
BB%10.4%
K-BB%14.7%
IP40
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF6060
CTRL3535
CMD4545
K†6565
FB Velo
p6095.2
Whiff%
p9032.1%
K%
p6124.3%
xwOBA vs
p490.313
SL (38%)
CT (3%)
CH (14%)
FB-1.9 (44%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 10 | 7 | 26 | 110 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 3.46 | 4.44 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 23 | A+ | Greenville Drive | 24 | 0 | 53 | 216 | 60 | 14 | 3 | 20.8% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 2.39 | 3.40 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 24 | AA | Portland Sea Dogs | 35 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 56 | 11 | 6 | 26.0% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 4.31 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2023 | 25 | AAA | Worcester Red Sox | 42 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 67 | 18 | 8 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 4.0% | 4.14 | 4.42 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 62 | 0 | 67 | 285 | 71 | 27 | 4 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 1.4% | 3.51 | 2.97 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 27 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 61 | 0 | 65 | 287 | 83 | 34 | 7 | 26.9% | 12.2% | 2.7% | 5.26 | 3.85 | +0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 8 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | STL | 14 | — | 14 | 60 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.42 | 4.18 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 28 | MLB | STL | — | — | 21 | 90 | 24 | 9 | 2 | 27.3% | 9.7% | 1.9% | 2.91 | 2.75 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 44 | 18 | 5 | 26.7% | 11.2% | 3.0% | 4.34 | 4.27 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 38 | — | 38 | 158 | 41 | 18 | 5 | 25.9% | 11.1% | 3.0% | 4.36 | 4.36 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 31 | MLB | STL | 36 | — | 36 | 153 | 38 | 17 | 5 | 25.2% | 11.1% | 3.1% | 4.42 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 32 | MLB | STL | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 36 | 17 | 5 | 24.5% | 11.2% | 3.2% | 4.51 | 4.58 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 33 | MLB | STL | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 33 | 16 | 5 | 23.8% | 11.4% | 3.3% | 4.63 | 4.71 | +0.1 |
| 2032 | 34 | MLB | STL | 32 | — | 32 | 133 | 31 | 15 | 4 | 23.2% | 11.6% | 3.4% | 4.76 | 4.85 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 35 | MLB | STL | 30 | — | 30 | 125 | 28 | 15 | 4 | 22.4% | 11.8% | 3.5% | 4.90 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 241 | 7 | 312 | 1326 | 320 | 121 | 37 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 3.74 | +5.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 155 | 4 | 200 | 851 | 205 | 78 | 24 | 24.1% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 3.81 | 3.74 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Fernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.18 | 27.6% | 11.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.36 | 25.9% | 14.8% | 112 | +0.18 | — | — | — |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.76 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.34 | 2.42 | 125 | 80 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.26 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.26 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.4% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 104 | 79 |
| Jake Cousins R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.11 | 30.9% | 11.9% | 2.0% | .265 | 3.91 | 31.6% | 18.8% | 65 | +0.80 | 1.11 | 160 | 79 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.54 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .277 | 3.88 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | +0.34 | 2.86 | 596 | 77 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.63 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .310 | 3.09 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.54 | 2.28 | 186 | 77 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.46 | 29.2% | 12.4% | 2.3% | .353 | 3.06 | 35.5% | 27.4% | 61 | -0.40 | 1.53 | 433 | 77 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.01 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.01 | 283 | 76 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.59 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.53 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.06 | 3.04 | 432 | 76 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.48 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.48 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.74 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.26 | 1.69 | 468 | 76 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.39 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.4% | .264 | 2.39 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.00 | 2.39 | 132 | 76 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.75 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.3% | .389 | 4.77 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.02 | 3.10 | 220 | 75 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.68 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.1% | .289 | 3.07 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -0.61 | 2.31 | 403 | 75 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.38 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.0% | .253 | 3.83 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 154 | +0.45 | 2.84 | 484 | 74 |
| Michael Dimock R 2026 · 3.39 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.39 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 1.7% | .346 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 166 | 74 |
| José Cisnero R 2025 · 4.50 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.50 | 26.1% | 11.7% | 3.9% | .367 | 3.92 | 24.5% | 13.3% | 75 | -0.58 | 2.26 | 279 | 74 |
| Brad Brach R 2027 · 3.22 FIP | 29 | SW | 3.22 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 1.9% | .259 | 3.21 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.01 | 2.80 | 410 | 74 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 73 |
| Gerardo Sanchez R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.47 | 21.6% | 8.4% | 2.1% | .355 | 3.57 | 20.5% | 15.1% | 56 | +0.10 | 2.59 | 137 | 73 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .358 | 3.95 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.52 | 3.08 | 205 | 73 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2027 · 3.52 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.52 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .283 | 3.61 | 22.2% | 13.6% | 174 | +0.09 | 3.17 | 272 | 73 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.