Ryan Fernandez
P
Memphis Redbirds
Age 28
RHP
6'0" / 200 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2027
ILReassigned to Minors (RM)
2026 ROS PROJECTION34 act + 29 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10697vR 88
ERA3.79
FIP3.79
K%27.1%
BB%11.1%
K-BB%16.0%
ROS IP29
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 64 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5094.5
Whiff%
p9036.0%
K%
p9033.9%
xwOBA vs
p710.292
SL (45%)
CT (2%)
CH (12%)
FB-1.9 (41%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 10 | 7 | 26 | 110 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 70% | 2.6 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 12.3% | 3.8% | 3.46 | 4.44 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | ROK | GCL Red Sox | 10 | 7 | 26 | 110 | 31 | 6 | 3 | 70% | 2.6 | 28.2% | 5.5% | 22.7% | 2.7% | 3.46 | 2.91 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 53 | 216 | 60 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 2.2 | 20.8% | 7.6% | 13.2% | 2.2% | 2.39 | 3.52 | — |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 24 | 0 | 53 | 216 | 60 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 2.2 | 27.8% | 6.5% | 21.3% | 1.4% | 2.39 | 2.36 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 56 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.0% | 7.5% | 18.6% | 4.4% | 4.31 | 4.25 | — |
| 2022 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 35 | 0 | 40 | 168 | 56 | 11 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 33.3% | 6.5% | 26.8% | 3.6% | 4.31 | 3.07 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 67 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.6% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 3.9% | 4.14 | 4.39 | — |
| 2023 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 0 | 54 | 230 | 67 | 18 | 8 | 0% | 1.3 | 29.1% | 7.8% | 21.3% | 3.5% | 4.14 | 3.54 | — |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 62 | 0 | 67 | 285 | 71 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 1.4% | 3.51 | 2.97 | +1.3 |
| 2024 | 26 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 62 | 0 | 67 | 285 | 71 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.9% | 9.5% | 15.4% | 1.4% | 3.51 | 2.97 | +1.3 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 65 | 287 | 83 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.9% | 12.2% | 14.7% | 2.6% | 5.26 | 3.81 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 61 | 0 | 65 | 287 | 83 | 34 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.9% | 11.8% | 17.1% | 2.4% | 5.26 | 3.52 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | St. Louis Cardinals | 30 | 0 | 34 | 147 | 41 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.2% | 8.3% | 17.8% | 2.9% | 3.93 | 3.55 | +0.4 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | STL | 28 | 0 | 29 | 124 | 34 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.1% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 3.79 | 3.79 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 28 | MLB | STL | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 33 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.1% | 11.1% | 16.0% | 2.9% | 3.79 | 3.79 | +0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 28 | MLB | STL | — | — | 64 | 271 | 75 | 26 | 8 | — | — | 27.6% | 9.5% | 18.0% | 2.8% | 3.87 | 3.66 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 28 | MLB | STL | — | — | 43 | 181 | 75 | 26 | 8 | — | — | 41.4% | 14.3% | 27.1% | 4.2% | 5.77 | 3.72 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 58 | 0 | 61 | 257 | 72 | 30 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 27.9% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.21 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 54 | 0 | 57 | 242 | 66 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 12.1% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | STL | 55 | 0 | 58 | 245 | 68 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.9% | 11.8% | 16.1% | 2.9% | 4.15 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | STL | 51 | 0 | 54 | 228 | 62 | 28 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 27.2% | 12.1% | 15.1% | 3.1% | 4.31 | 4.42 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 240 | 0 | 252 | 1082 | 289 | 119 | 29 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 11.0% | 15.8% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 3.69 | +5.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 859 | 229 | 94 | 23 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 11.0% | 15.8% | 2.7% | 4.33 | 3.69 | +4.0 | ||
| Career | — | 264 | 7 | 339 | 1443 | 351 | 131 | 41 | 3% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.77 | +6.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 156 | 4 | 200 | 852 | 207 | 77 | 24 | 3% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 9.1% | 15.2% | 2.9% | 3.91 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Ryan Fernandez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.20 | 27.4% | 11.6% | 2.9% | — | 4.31 | 27.6% | 15.6% | 118 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Jake Cousins R 2026 · 3.23 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.23 | 30.9% | 11.9% | 2.2% | .265 | 4.01 | 31.6% | 18.8% | 65 | +0.78 | 1.11 | 160 | 80 |
| Jon Edwards R 2025 · 3.54 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.54 | 31.7% | 13.1% | 2.7% | .264 | 2.30 | 30.3% | 22.6% | 30 | -1.24 | 2.30 | 132 | 80 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.74 | 25.1% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .277 | 3.68 | 21.1% | 12.7% | 203 | -0.06 | 2.78 | 596 | 78 |
| Matt Ramsey R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.87 | 24.9% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .276 | 2.42 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 34 | -1.45 | 2.42 | 125 | 78 |
| Tommy Kahnle R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.44 | 29.2% | 12.4% | 2.2% | .353 | 2.98 | 35.5% | 27.4% | 61 | -0.46 | 1.52 | 452 | 77 |
| Trevor May R 2026 · 3.83 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.83 | 26.1% | 9.8% | 3.1% | .291 | 3.46 | 31.9% | 23.6% | 150 | -0.37 | 3.04 | 432 | 77 |
| Daniel Hudson R 2026 · 3.31 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.31 | 24.5% | 7.9% | 2.3% | .302 | 3.78 | 22.8% | 13.6% | 168 | +0.47 | 1.74 | 468 | 77 |
| Brad Brach R 2027 · 3.25 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.25 | 27.5% | 10.8% | 2.0% | .259 | 3.16 | 25.6% | 17.1% | 210 | -0.09 | 2.73 | 410 | 76 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.54 | 25.8% | 10.6% | 2.3% | .253 | 3.91 | 23.4% | 16.9% | 154 | +0.37 | 2.90 | 484 | 76 |
| Neftalí Feliz R 2026 · 4.44 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.44 | 28.0% | 9.2% | 4.6% | .236 | 4.98 | 17.1% | 4.4% | 138 | +0.54 | 3.57 | 291 | 75 |
| Peyton Gray R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.31 | 29.2% | 14.1% | 3.5% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.87 | 138 | 75 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.03 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 3.8% | .289 | 3.03 | 24.2% | 17.9% | 130 | -1.00 | 2.27 | 426 | 75 |
| Blake Wood R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 29 | SU | 3.05 | 24.5% | 10.5% | 1.3% | .325 | 3.66 | 24.9% | 14.9% | 151 | +0.61 | 3.05 | 210 | 75 |
| Daniel Robert R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.60 | 23.3% | 12.5% | 1.6% | .310 | 3.16 | 25.8% | 16.6% | 87 | -0.44 | 2.16 | 186 | 75 |
| Neil Ramírez R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.68 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 4.2% | .389 | 4.81 | 29.1% | 19.7% | 116 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 220 | 74 |
| Casey Legumina R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.16 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 3.4% | .299 | 3.68 | 16.8% | 11.4% | 39 | -0.48 | 3.68 | 323 | 74 |
| Dayan Díaz R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.43 | 25.1% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .358 | 4.01 | 29.4% | 19.3% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.17 | 205 | 74 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2029 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 74 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2029 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 74 |
| Blake Treinen R 2026 · 3.32 FIP | 28 | SU | 3.32 | 24.0% | 9.5% | 1.9% | .271 | 2.99 | 26.0% | 17.7% | 215 | -0.33 | 1.51 | 544 | 73 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 54 | 27.5% | 11.9% | 1.15 | 4.22 |
| Lucas Sims ('24) | 6 | 47 | 27.6% | 11.6% | 1.24 | 4.22 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| José Cisnero ('23) | 5 | 42 | 24.8% | 11.3% | 0.94 | 3.84 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Keegan Thompson ('24) | 4 | 57 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 1.19 | 3.64 |