Ryan Fernandez

P Memphis Redbirds

Age 29 RHP 6'0" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP40-MAN

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	26	MLBSTL	62	67	3.51	2.97	24.9%	9.5%	1.3
2025	27	MIX2 levels	61	65	5.26	3.52	28.9%	11.8%	0.8	K 26.5% · BB 11.1% · FIP 3.75
2026	28	MIX2 levels	52	62	3.36	3.42	24.4%	9.0%	0.8	K 22.5% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.63
2027PROJ	29	MLBSTL	51	54	4.18	4.14	26.4%	10.4%	0.3
2028PROJ94% MLB	30	MLBSTL	38	40	4.28	4.35	25.7%	10.7%	0.1
2029PROJ95% MLB	31	MLBSTL	29	30	4.46	4.58	25.0%	11.1%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 2.9 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

K%81

xwOBA vs72

FB Velo52

CompsManny Acosta (age 29) · Jason Bulger (age 29) · Cody Hall (age 29)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 96

ERA4.18

FIP4.14

K%26.4%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%16.0%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p9033.5%

p8128.0%

xwOBA vs

p720.291

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2018	20	ROK MLE	GCL Red Sox	10	7	26	110	31	6	3	70%	2.6	19.2%	6.8%	12.3%	3.8%	3.46	4.44	—
2018	20	ROK RAW	GCL Red Sox	10	7	26	110	31	6	3	70%	2.6	28.2%	5.5%	22.7%	2.7%	3.46	2.91	—
2021	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	0	53	216	60	14	3	0%	2.2	20.8%	7.6%	13.2%	1.9%	2.39	3.37	—
2021	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	0	53	216	60	14	3	0%	2.2	27.8%	6.5%	21.3%	1.4%	2.39	2.36	—
2022	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	40	168	56	11	6	0%	1.1	26.0%	7.5%	18.6%	4.4%	4.31	4.25	—
2022	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	40	168	56	11	6	0%	1.1	33.3%	6.5%	26.8%	3.6%	4.31	3.07	—
2023	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	54	230	67	18	8	0%	1.3	23.3%	8.1%	15.2%	4.0%	4.14	4.35	—
2023	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	54	230	67	18	8	0%	1.3	29.1%	7.8%	21.3%	3.5%	4.14	3.54	—
2024	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	62	0	67	285	71	27	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.5%	15.4%	1.5%	3.51	3.02	+1.2
2024	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	62	0	67	285	71	27	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.5%	15.4%	1.5%	3.51	3.02	+1.2
2024	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	62	0	67	285	71	27	4	0%	1.1	24.9%	9.5%	15.4%	1.4%	3.51	2.97	+1.3
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	65	287	83	34	7	0%	1.1	26.5%	11.1%	15.4%	2.7%	5.26	3.75	+0.6
2025	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	61	0	65	287	83	34	7	0%	1.1	26.5%	11.1%	15.4%	2.7%	5.26	3.75	+0.6
2025	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	61	0	65	287	83	34	7	0%	1.1	28.9%	11.8%	17.1%	2.4%	5.26	3.52	+0.8
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	62	266	65	24	6	0%	1.2	22.5%	8.5%	14.0%	2.5%	3.36	3.63	+0.7
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	62	266	65	24	6	0%	1.2	22.5%	8.5%	14.0%	2.5%	3.36	3.63	+0.7
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	62	266	65	24	6	0%	1.2	24.4%	9.0%	15.4%	2.3%	3.36	3.42	+0.8
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			111	0	120	525	133	52	12	0%	1.1	25.3%	9.9%	15.4%	2.3%	4.58	3.48	+1.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	STL	51	0	54	228	60	24	7	0%	1.1	26.4%	10.4%	16.0%	2.9%	4.18	4.14	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	STL	40	0	42	179	46	19	5	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.7%	15.0%	3.1%	4.28	4.35	+0.1
2029	31	MLB MLE	STL	30	0	31	132	33	15	4	0%	1.0	25.0%	11.1%	13.9%	3.3%	4.46	4.58	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	STL	38	0	40	169	43	18	5	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.7%	15.0%	3.1%	4.28	4.35	+0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	STL	29	0	30	127	32	14	4	0%	1.0	25.0%	11.1%	13.9%	3.3%	4.46	4.58	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		177	0	189	818	207	84	21	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.2%	15.1%	2.6%	4.50	3.68	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		187	0	200	864	219	89	22	0%	1.1	25.4%	10.2%	15.1%	2.6%	4.50	3.68	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		286	7	366	1562	370	137	44	2%	1.3	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	2.8%	3.81	3.74	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	4	200	854	202	75	24	2%	1.3	23.7%	8.8%	14.9%	2.8%	3.81	3.74	+1.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 39 IPFIP 3.53 → 3.83 (+0.30)K% 22.3% → 19.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	22.29%	—	×0.860	19.17%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.83%	—	×0.900	7.05%
HR / BF /BF	2.41%	÷1.000	×1.100	2.65%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 100).

Result: FIP 3.53 → 3.83, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAMemphis Redbirds · 35 IPFIP 2.38 → 2.70 (+0.32)K% 33.3% → 28.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	33.33%	—	×0.860	28.67%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	13.61%	—	×0.900	12.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷0.869	×1.100	0.86%

Result: FIP 2.38 → 2.70, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAWorcester Red Sox · 31 IPFIP 4.65 → 5.11 (+0.46)K% 25.2% → 21.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	25.18%	—	×0.860	21.65%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.19%	—	×0.900	6.47%
HR / BF /BF	5.04%	÷1.008	×1.100	5.50%

Result: FIP 4.65 → 5.11, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 20 IPFIP 2.32 → 3.06 (+0.74)K% 32.1% → 26.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	32.10%	—	×0.810	26.00%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.88%	—	×1.100	10.86%
HR / BF /BF	1.23%	÷1.048	×1.200	1.41%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 110).

Result: FIP 2.32 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 A+Greenville Drive · 27 IPFIP 2.59 → 3.77 (+1.18)K% 34.5% → 26.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	34.48%	—	×0.770	26.55%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.76%	—	×1.150	8.92%
HR / BF /BF	2.59%	÷0.996	×1.250	3.25%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 99).

Result: FIP 2.59 → 3.77, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 13 IPFIP 4.16 → 5.32 (+1.16)K% 30.8% → 24.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.77%	—	×0.810	24.92%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	3.85%	—	×1.100	4.23%
HR / BF /BF	5.77%	÷1.004	×1.200	6.89%

Result: FIP 4.16 → 5.32, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 ASalem Red Sox · 36 IPFIP 1.46 → 2.23 (+0.77)K% 28.6% → 21.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.740	21.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	6.12%	—	×1.180	7.22%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.858	×1.300	0.00%

Factors used: pitcher A level factors — K ×0.74, BB ×1.18, HR ×1.30. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 72).

Result: FIP 1.46 → 2.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Greenville Drive · 17 IPFIP 4.20 → 5.81 (+1.60)K% 26.1% → 20.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	26.09%	—	×0.770	20.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.25%	—	×1.150	8.33%
HR / BF /BF	4.35%	÷0.891	×1.250	6.10%

Result: FIP 4.20 → 5.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Fernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.14	26.4%	10.4%	2.9%	—	4.45	25.4%	14.6%	74	+0.31	—	—	—
Manny Acosta R 2010 · 3.61 FIP	29	SU	3.61	26.8%	10.8%	2.5%	.277	4.12	21.9%	12.6%	94	+0.51	3.08	350	81
Jason Bulger R 2008 · 4.60 FIP	29	SU	4.60	27.4%	12.3%	4.1%	.293	3.94	25.1%	13.3%	90	-0.66	3.78	106	79
Cody Hall R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	29	SU	4.03	26.8%	10.0%	3.5%	.299	3.92	25.9%	8.4%	19	-0.11	3.51	134	79
Marcos Mateo R 2011 · 3.40 FIP	27	SU	3.40	25.5%	10.2%	2.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	77
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	77
Ryan Brasier R 2016 · 3.68 FIP	28	SU	3.68	25.0%	7.7%	3.1%	.289	3.09	24.2%	17.9%	130	-0.59	2.31	426	77
Pedro Báez R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	29	SU	4.08	22.9%	9.6%	3.1%	.261	3.18	24.7%	16.1%	143	-0.90	2.29	356	77
Jose Veras R 2010 · 4.10 FIP	29	SU	4.10	26.9%	14.4%	2.6%	.239	3.42	25.3%	14.8%	201	-0.68	3.37	422	76
Erik Davis R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	29	SU	3.05	24.4%	9.5%	1.5%	.329	3.88	19.8%	9.8%	129	+0.83	3.05	227	76
Coleman Huntley III R 2022 · 4.05 FIP	29	SU	4.05	24.4%	10.9%	3.0%	.311	2.38	20.9%	12.6%	25	-1.67	2.38	160	75
Jake Cousins R 2023 · 4.38 FIP	29	SU	4.38	27.3%	11.4%	3.9%	.379	3.42	34.2%	21.9%	38	-0.96	1.11	160	75
Jhan Mariñez R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	29	SU	4.09	21.2%	7.9%	3.2%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	253	74
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	74
Scott Atchison R 2004 · 3.61 FIP	28	SU	3.61	27.1%	9.0%	3.0%	.309	4.55	19.1%	11.5%	31	+0.94	2.52	340	73
Gerardo Sanchez R 2017 · 3.47 FIP	28	SU	3.47	21.6%	8.4%	2.1%	.355	3.58	20.5%	15.1%	56	+0.11	2.65	137	73
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2012 · 3.90 FIP	28	SU	3.90	25.2%	8.7%	3.3%	.299	3.34	26.5%	16.9%	75	-0.56	3.34	335	73
Diego Moreno R 2016 · 3.75 FIP	29	SU	3.75	21.0%	8.2%	2.5%	.347	3.13	17.8%	11.9%	54	-0.62	2.29	187	73
Chad Fox R 2001 · 3.17 FIP	30	SU	3.17	27.9%	10.1%	2.1%	.221	3.70	23.2%	9.6%	43	+0.53	2.82	194	73
Kerry Ligtenberg R 2000 · 4.00 FIP	29	SU	4.00	23.5%	8.8%	3.2%	.257	3.79	19.6%	11.6%	186	-0.21	2.94	381	73
Jacob Barnes R 2019 · 5.09 FIP	29	SU	5.09	21.9%	10.0%	4.7%	.303	3.54	23.1%	15.1%	101	-1.55	1.84	551	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,234 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 480 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	42	25.6%	10.9%	1.04	4.42
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02
Mac Scarce ('72-'78, 1 WAR*)	1.0	52	25.9%*	12.4%*	1.27*	4.17*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*