Fraynel Nova — OGILVIE

Fraynel Nova P Columbia Fireflies

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 190 lbs A

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 140132vR 123

ERA5.61

FIP5.61

K%12.9%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%-0.3%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4040

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL KC Glass	8	5	20	79	19	5	1	62%	2.5	16.4%	7.9%	8.4%	2.0%	2.75	3.83	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL KC Glass	8	5	20	79	19	5	1	62%	2.5	24.1%	6.3%	17.7%	1.3%	2.75	2.59	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	13	0	24	95	24	5	1	0%	1.8	17.2%	6.6%	10.6%	1.6%	3.04	3.38	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Blue	13	0	24	95	24	5	1	0%	1.8	17.2%	6.6%	10.6%	1.6%	3.04	3.38	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Blue	13	0	24	95	24	5	1	0%	1.8	25.3%	5.3%	20.0%	1.1%	3.04	2.25	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	10	1	24	114	25	8	2	10%	2.4	14.9%	8.8%	6.1%	2.6%	6.38	4.37	—
2024	22	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	10	1	24	114	25	8	2	10%	2.4	14.9%	8.8%	6.1%	2.6%	6.38	4.37	—
2024	22	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	10	1	24	114	25	8	2	10%	2.4	21.9%	7.0%	14.9%	1.8%	6.38	3.10	—
2025	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	42	0	62	269	51	27	4	0%	1.5	14.0%	11.8%	2.2%	1.8%	3.77	4.39	—
2025	23	A MLE	Columbia Fireflies	42	0	62	269	51	27	4	0%	1.5	14.0%	11.8%	2.2%	1.8%	3.77	4.39	—
2025	23	A RAW	Columbia Fireflies	42	0	62	269	51	27	4	0%	1.5	19.0%	10.0%	8.9%	1.5%	3.77	3.60	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	KC	5	0	5	21	3	3	1	0%	1.0	12.9%	13.2%	-0.3%	2.8%	5.61	5.61	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	KC	65	0	68	287	43	36	8	0%	1.0	15.0%	12.4%	2.6%	2.8%	5.39	5.34	-0.6
2028	26	MLB MLE	KC	65	0	68	287	47	35	8	0%	1.0	16.3%	12.1%	4.2%	2.8%	5.24	5.20	-0.5
2029	27	MLB MLE	KC	64	0	67	283	47	34	8	0%	1.0	16.6%	12.1%	4.6%	2.9%	5.20	5.20	-0.5
2030	28	MLB MLE	KC	62	0	65	274	46	33	8	0%	1.0	16.7%	12.1%	4.5%	3.0%	5.22	5.26	-0.5
2027	25	MLB CTX	KC	28	0	29	122	18	15	3	0%	1.0	15.0%	12.4%	2.6%	2.8%	5.39	5.34	-0.3
2028	26	MLB CTX	KC	43	0	45	190	31	23	5	0%	1.0	16.3%	12.1%	4.2%	2.8%	5.24	5.20	-0.3
2029	27	MLB CTX	KC	50	0	52	220	37	26	6	0%	1.0	16.6%	12.1%	4.6%	2.9%	5.20	5.20	-0.4
2030	28	MLB CTX	KC	52	0	55	232	39	28	7	0%	1.1	16.7%	12.1%	4.5%	3.0%	5.22	5.26	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	762	124	93	22	0%	1.0	16.3%	12.2%	4.1%	2.9%	5.25	4.86	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	137	103	24	0%	1.1	16.3%	12.2%	4.1%	2.9%	5.25	4.86	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		73	6	129	557	84	54	11	8%	1.8	15.1%	9.8%	5.3%	2.0%	3.97	4.14	-2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		113	9	200	861	130	84	17	8%	1.8	15.1%	9.8%	5.3%	2.0%	3.97	4.14	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Fraynel Nova (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.61	12.9%	13.2%	2.8%	—	5.25	16.0%	3.8%	203	-0.36	—	—	—
Johendí Jiminian R 2017 · 5.70 FIP	24	SU	5.70	11.5%	14.0%	3.3%	.300	4.77	13.9%	3.6%	164	-0.93	4.01	419	89
Conner O'Neil R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	24	SU	5.78	12.8%	13.6%	3.7%	.340	6.92	16.4%	4.1%	26	+1.14	2.89	115	87
Parker Markel R 2015 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	13.6%	12.3%	2.1%	.313	3.18	15.9%	6.2%	61	-1.49	3.18	266	87
Dylan Rheault R 2015 · 5.75 FIP	23	SU	5.75	6.5%	14.9%	2.4%	.288	4.11	14.1%	4.8%	96	-1.64	3.88	198	87
Kender Villegas R 2017 · 4.70 FIP	24	SU	4.70	13.3%	13.3%	1.9%	.269	—	—	—	—	—	3.26	131	87
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	87
Brett Lockwood R 2021 · 5.46 FIP	24	SU	5.46	16.2%	15.5%	3.2%	.312	4.58	11.0%	-6.3%	79	-0.88	4.24	132	87
Ocean Gabonia R 2023 · 5.04 FIP	22	SU	5.04	15.4%	14.6%	2.5%	.283	3.29	19.1%	10.9%	91	-1.75	2.79	144	86
Taylor Grover R 2015 · 5.03 FIP	24	SU	5.03	15.1%	12.9%	2.9%	.229	4.30	18.7%	9.1%	150	-0.73	3.68	239	86
Jack Jasiak R 2023 · 5.03 FIP	22	SU	5.03	12.1%	14.2%	2.1%	.288	3.81	19.8%	12.1%	193	-1.22	3.24	262	86
Rob Huber R 2016 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.90	117	85
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	85
David Trexler R 2015 · 4.62 FIP	24	SU	4.62	17.7%	13.4%	2.4%	.313	4.44	18.3%	4.8%	31	-0.18	4.44	100	84
Jake Johansen R 2015 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	15.8%	12.8%	3.6%	.351	4.14	13.6%	3.0%	114	-1.20	3.65	162	84
Mitchell Osnowitz R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.2%	13.8%	1.5%	.330	5.30	16.5%	-2.2%	23	+0.76	4.54	132	84
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	84
Mike Hepple R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	11.2%	12.9%	1.2%	.244	5.75	11.1%	-7.4%	59	+1.29	4.46	116	84
Eli Saul R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	21	SW	5.41	12.6%	14.2%	2.9%	.305	5.39	13.8%	-2.9%	98	-0.02	5.30	157	84
Miguel Nunez R 2017 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	13.2%	13.7%	2.6%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	154	83
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	15.5%	12.4%	1.11	5.33
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04