Fraynel Nova
P
Columbia Fireflies
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
A
peak 0.1 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 67 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 145136vR 127
ERA5.62
FIP5.62
K%12.9%
BB%13.3%
K-BB%-0.4%
ROS IP67
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL KC Glass | 8 | 5 | 20 | 79 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 62% | 2.5 | 16.4% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 2.3% | 2.75 | 4.00 | — |
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL KC Glass | 8 | 5 | 20 | 79 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 62% | 2.5 | 24.1% | 6.3% | 17.7% | 1.3% | 2.75 | 2.59 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 13 | 0 | 24 | 95 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 17.2% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 1.8% | 3.04 | 3.49 | — |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 13 | 0 | 24 | 95 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 0% | 1.8 | 25.3% | 5.3% | 20.0% | 1.1% | 3.04 | 2.25 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | ACL Royals | 10 | 1 | 24 | 114 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 10% | 2.4 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 6.38 | 4.45 | — |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | ACL Royals | 10 | 1 | 24 | 114 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 10% | 2.4 | 21.9% | 7.0% | 14.9% | 1.8% | 6.38 | 3.10 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 42 | 0 | 62 | 269 | 51 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 3.77 | 4.32 | — |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 42 | 0 | 62 | 269 | 51 | 27 | 4 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 1.5% | 3.77 | 3.60 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | KC | 64 | 0 | 67 | 284 | 37 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 12.9% | 13.3% | -0.4% | 2.8% | 5.62 | 5.62 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 43 | 36 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.34 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 47 | 35 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.25 | 5.21 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 28 | 0 | 29 | 122 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.0% | 12.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.40 | 5.34 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 31 | 23 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.3% | 12.2% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 5.25 | 5.21 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 71 | 0 | 74 | 313 | 49 | 39 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.8% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 4.88 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 132 | 105 | 24 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.8% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 5.31 | 4.88 | +1.2 | ||
| Career | — | 73 | 6 | 129 | 557 | 84 | 54 | 11 | 8% | 1.8 | 15.1% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 3.97 | 4.16 | +1.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 9 | 200 | 861 | 130 | 84 | 17 | 8% | 1.8 | 15.1% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 3.97 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Fraynel Nova (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.62 | 12.9% | 13.3% | 2.8% | — | 5.27 | 15.7% | 3.3% | 136 | -0.35 | — | — | — |
| Johendí Jiminian R 2026 · 5.45 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.45 | 11.5% | 14.0% | 2.8% | .300 | 4.85 | 13.9% | 3.6% | 164 | -0.60 | 3.93 | 419 | 89 |
| Conner O'Neil R 2026 · 5.58 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.58 | 12.8% | 13.6% | 3.3% | .340 | 7.24 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 26 | +1.66 | 2.90 | 115 | 89 |
| Parker Markel R 2026 · 4.69 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.69 | 13.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | .313 | 3.16 | 15.9% | 6.2% | 61 | -1.53 | 3.16 | 266 | 87 |
| Brett Lockwood R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.51 | 16.2% | 15.5% | 3.3% | .312 | 4.61 | 11.0% | -6.3% | 79 | -0.90 | 4.29 | 132 | 87 |
| Dylan Rheault R 2025 · 5.57 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.57 | 6.5% | 14.9% | 2.1% | .288 | 4.14 | 14.1% | 4.8% | 96 | -1.43 | 3.96 | 198 | 87 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2027 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 86 |
| Kender Villegas R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.55 | 13.3% | 13.3% | 1.6% | .269 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.18 | 131 | 86 |
| Taylor Grover R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.40 | 15.1% | 12.9% | 3.5% | .229 | 4.26 | 18.7% | 9.1% | 150 | -1.14 | 3.63 | 239 | 85 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 13.6% | 10.6% | 2.4% | .284 | 3.85 | 23.0% | 12.0% | 89 | -0.74 | 3.24 | 172 | 85 |
| Rob Huber R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 15.7% | 14.7% | 1.9% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.84 | 117 | 85 |
| Reece Karalus R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.81 | 15.4% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.74 | 149 | 85 |
| David Trexler R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 17.7% | 13.4% | 2.9% | .313 | 4.44 | 18.3% | 4.8% | 31 | -0.47 | 4.44 | 100 | 85 |
| Ryan Vanderhei R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.26 | 14.6% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .287 | 3.56 | 22.8% | 10.7% | 39 | -1.70 | 3.56 | 130 | 84 |
| Mitchell Osnowitz R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.47 | 13.2% | 13.8% | 1.3% | .330 | 5.36 | 16.5% | -2.2% | 23 | +0.89 | 4.47 | 132 | 83 |
| Zach Nuding R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.09 | 12.5% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .236 | 4.99 | 12.6% | 3.3% | 106 | -0.10 | 4.99 | 146 | 83 |
| Miguel Nunez R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.91 | 13.2% | 13.7% | 2.2% | .257 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 154 | 83 |
| Michael Mertz R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.12 | 16.1% | 13.9% | 2.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.40 | 133 | 83 |
| José A. Váldez R 2027 · 4.64 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.64 | 15.3% | 15.3% | 1.6% | .279 | 4.38 | 22.3% | 9.9% | 167 | -0.26 | 4.02 | 328 | 83 |
| James Pugliese R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.90 | 12.5% | 11.6% | 2.5% | .226 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.52 | 218 | 83 |
| Jesus Barraza R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.83 | 9.8% | 11.1% | 2.1% | .302 | 3.33 | 15.3% | 8.2% | 91 | -1.50 | 3.28 | 164 | 83 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 68 | 14.8% | 12.7% | 1.09 | 5.42 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |