Fraynel Nova
P
Columbia Fireflies
+0.0
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'0" / 190 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
ERA4.54
FIP4.54
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%20.7%
BB%9.9%
K-BB%10.9%
IP47
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2027
STUF3030
CTRL4040
CMD3030
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 20 | ROK | DSL KC Glass | 8 | 5 | 20 | 79 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.1% | 2.75 | 3.86 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 21 | ROK | DSL Royals Blue | 13 | 0 | 24 | 95 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 17.2% | 6.6% | 1.7% | 3.04 | 3.40 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 22 | ROK | ACL Royals | 10 | 1 | 24 | 114 | 25 | 8 | 2 | 14.9% | 8.8% | 2.7% | 6.38 | 4.44 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 23 | A | Columbia Fireflies | 42 | 0 | 62 | 269 | 51 | 27 | 4 | 14.0% | 11.8% | 1.8% | 3.77 | 4.40 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | MLB | KC | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 36 | 24 | 6 | 18.3% | 12.0% | 2.8% | 5.00 | 5.00 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | KC | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 38 | 23 | 6 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.87 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | KC | 47 | — | 47 | 200 | 39 | 23 | 6 | 19.7% | 11.3% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | KC | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 40 | 22 | 6 | 19.9% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | KC | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 39 | 22 | 6 | 20.0% | 11.2% | 2.9% | 4.80 | 4.81 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | KC | 45 | — | 45 | 191 | 38 | 22 | 6 | 19.9% | 11.3% | 2.9% | 4.83 | 4.86 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | KC | 44 | — | 44 | 185 | 36 | 21 | 6 | 19.7% | 11.4% | 3.0% | 4.88 | 4.92 | +0.0 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | KC | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 35 | 21 | 6 | 19.4% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 4.95 | 4.99 | -0.0 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | KC | 41 | — | 41 | 172 | 33 | 20 | 5 | 19.1% | 11.7% | 3.2% | 5.03 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | KC | 39 | — | 39 | 164 | 31 | 19 | 5 | 18.8% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 5.12 | 5.18 | -0.1 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | KC | 37 | — | 37 | 156 | 29 | 19 | 5 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 3.3% | 5.22 | 5.29 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | KC | 35 | — | 35 | 147 | 27 | 18 | 5 | 18.1% | 12.3% | 3.5% | 5.33 | 5.41 | -0.2 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | KC | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 24 | 17 | 5 | 17.7% | 12.6% | 3.6% | 5.46 | 5.54 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 73 | 6 | 129 | 557 | 84 | 54 | 11 | 15.1% | 9.8% | 2.0% | 3.97 | 4.16 | +1.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 113 | 9 | 200 | 861 | 130 | 84 | 17 | 15.1% | 9.8% | 2.0% | 3.97 | 4.16 | +2.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Fraynel Nova (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.00 | 18.3% | 12.0% | 2.8% | — | 4.83 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 142 | -0.17 | — | — | — |
| Grayson Thurman R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 14.1% | 2.7% | .319 | 4.82 | 19.9% | 10.5% | 87 | +0.11 | 4.56 | 132 | 92 |
| Chris Kachmar R 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.27 | 16.1% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .309 | 4.63 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 172 | +0.36 | 4.27 | 328 | 91 |
| Brad Deppermann R 2027 · 4.48 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.48 | 17.1% | 9.6% | 2.9% | .289 | 3.53 | 20.0% | 7.8% | 45 | -0.95 | 1.94 | 131 | 90 |
| Armando Ruiz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.22 | 18.4% | 11.4% | 2.3% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 113 | 89 |
| Reid Schaller R 2026 · 4.62 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.62 | 20.2% | 13.1% | 2.9% | .298 | 3.90 | 22.0% | 11.4% | 90 | -0.72 | 3.63 | 186 | 88 |
| Marc Brakeman R 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.67 | 18.3% | 13.7% | 2.5% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 156 | 88 |
| Ray Gaither R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.86 | 21.9% | 13.2% | 3.5% | .314 | 4.51 | 18.6% | 4.7% | 123 | -0.35 | 4.05 | 164 | 88 |
| Josh Uhen R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.10 | 16.1% | 9.7% | 2.1% | .303 | 4.01 | 15.6% | 1.2% | 82 | -0.09 | 3.16 | 185 | 88 |
| Harrison Cohen R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.56 | 22.4% | 13.4% | 3.0% | .282 | 3.00 | 24.2% | 12.6% | 70 | -1.56 | 2.12 | 117 | 88 |
| Davison Palermo R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.28 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .261 | 4.75 | 19.6% | 8.2% | 68 | -0.53 | 4.30 | 151 | 88 |
| Roberto Espinosa R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.32 | 15.1% | 10.1% | 2.2% | .312 | 4.58 | 14.5% | -1.1% | 35 | +0.26 | 4.32 | 117 | 88 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.34 | 18.0% | 9.5% | 2.8% | .296 | 5.22 | 18.2% | 7.4% | 37 | +0.88 | 4.33 | 143 | 88 |
| Jacob Bosiokovic R 2027 · 3.83 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.83 | 17.2% | 9.8% | 1.7% | .289 | 4.21 | 24.7% | 12.1% | 62 | +0.38 | 3.83 | 181 | 88 |
| Cameron Gann R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.21 | 21.4% | 12.4% | 2.4% | .296 | 5.37 | 21.1% | 6.8% | 23 | +1.16 | 3.60 | 146 | 88 |
| Billy Seidl R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.59 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.3% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 88 |
| Jake Johansen R 2026 · 5.29 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.29 | 15.8% | 12.8% | 3.5% | .351 | 4.15 | 13.6% | 3.0% | 114 | -1.14 | 3.64 | 162 | 87 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.17 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.17 | 18.0% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .278 | 4.50 | 17.0% | 5.3% | 107 | -0.67 | 3.85 | 189 | 87 |
| Bryce McGowan R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 24 | SU | 5.12 | 19.8% | 14.3% | 3.4% | .304 | 3.74 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 55 | -1.38 | 3.74 | 178 | 87 |
| Logan Boyer R 2025 · 5.62 FIP | 23 | SU | 5.62 | 17.0% | 12.7% | 4.3% | .306 | 3.70 | 25.0% | 12.7% | 27 | -1.92 | 3.70 | 121 | 87 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 87 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.