Tyler Owens — OGILVIE

Tyler Owens P Altoona Curve

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 185 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION51 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%18.8%

BB%11.4%

K-BB%7.4%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 56 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CMD4040

K†4550

FB (70%)

SL (23%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2019	18	ROK MLE	GCL Braves	2	1	4	14	4	1	0	50%	2.0	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	2.25	1.59	—
2019	18	ROK RAW	GCL Braves	2	1	4	14	4	1	0	50%	2.0	28.6%	7.1%	21.4%	0.0%	2.25	1.85	—
2021	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	6	4	14	74	17	6	2	67%	2.3	17.0%	9.6%	7.4%	2.9%	7.07	4.49	—
2021	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	6	4	14	74	17	6	2	67%	2.3	23.0%	8.1%	14.9%	2.7%	7.07	3.81	—
2022	21	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	32	4	62	280	67	28	6	12%	1.9	17.7%	11.8%	5.9%	2.5%	5.20	4.46	—
2022	21	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	32	4	62	280	67	28	6	12%	1.9	23.9%	10.0%	13.9%	2.1%	5.20	3.55	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	15	65	286	67	22	5	52%	2.3	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.3%	3.03	3.92	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	15	65	286	67	22	5	52%	2.3	18.4%	8.6%	9.8%	2.3%	3.03	3.92	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	15	65	286	67	22	5	52%	2.3	23.4%	7.7%	15.7%	1.7%	3.03	3.05	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	39	0	52	214	55	16	3	0%	1.3	20.8%	8.2%	12.6%	1.8%	2.96	3.36	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Erie SeaWolves	39	0	52	214	55	16	3	0%	1.3	20.8%	8.2%	12.6%	1.8%	2.96	3.36	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Erie SeaWolves	39	0	52	214	55	16	3	0%	1.3	25.7%	7.5%	18.2%	1.4%	2.96	2.65	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	1	33	164	29	26	5	3%	1.0	15.8%	13.3%	2.5%	4.4%	6.21	5.89	-0.5
2025	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	1	33	164	29	26	5	3%	1.0	15.8%	13.3%	2.5%	4.4%	6.21	5.89	-0.5
2025	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	1	33	164	29	26	5	3%	1.0	17.7%	15.9%	1.8%	3.0%	6.21	5.65	-0.4
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			3	0	3	15	1	3	0	0%	1.0	6.7%	20.0%	-13.3%	0.0%	3.00	5.43	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	43	0	51	222	52	17	6	0%	1.2	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.6%	3.86	4.50	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	43	0	51	222	52	17	6	0%	1.2	19.6%	8.7%	10.9%	3.6%	3.86	4.50	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	A RAW	PIT	5	0	5	20	3	1	0	0%	1.1	15.0%	5.0%	10.0%	0.0%	1.69	2.47	—
2026	25	AA RAW	PIT	38	0	46	202	49	16	6	0%	1.2	24.3%	7.9%	16.3%	3.0%	4.11	3.69	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	PIT	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	3.1%	5.06	5.06	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	PIT	—	—	56	243	56	19	7	—	—	23.0%	8.0%	15.0%	2.7%	3.96	4.55	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	PIT	57	0	60	251	51	28	8	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	3.1%	4.94	4.90	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	PIT	56	0	59	247	51	27	8	0%	1.0	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.2%	4.90	4.90	-0.2
2027	26	MLB CTX	PIT	25	0	26	110	22	12	3	0%	1.0	20.2%	11.2%	9.0%	3.1%	4.94	4.90	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	PIT	35	0	37	156	32	17	5	0%	1.1	20.4%	11.1%	9.3%	3.2%	4.90	4.90	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	0	66	282	55	33	8	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.6%	8.0%	3.0%	4.83	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		191	0	200	851	166	99	24	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.6%	8.0%	3.0%	4.83	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		183	25	282	1254	233	125	35	14%	1.5	18.6%	9.9%	8.6%	2.8%	4.21	4.31	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		130	18	200	889	165	88	25	14%	1.5	18.6%	9.9%	8.6%	2.8%	4.21	4.31	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Tyler Owens (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	18.8%	11.4%	3.1%	—	4.90	20.3%	9.2%	118	-0.16	—	—	—
Manny Barreda R 2015 · 5.04 FIP	26	SU	5.04	21.2%	14.7%	3.4%	.286	3.69	19.6%	9.5%	186	-1.35	3.30	376	80
Carlos Alvarado R 2015 · 4.90 FIP	25	SU	4.90	16.3%	10.0%	3.5%	.342	4.15	24.3%	14.8%	78	-0.75	2.68	102	79
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	78
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	77
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	77
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	77
Will Latcham R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	25	SU	4.30	18.8%	11.5%	2.4%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	134	76
Luis De La O R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SU	4.37	17.0%	9.4%	2.8%	.370	3.72	15.3%	10.8%	81	-0.65	3.25	145	76
Nick Richmond R 2023 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	17.6%	10.8%	2.1%	.323	4.54	15.7%	2.7%	60	+0.43	3.11	133	76
Josh Hejka R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	16.7%	10.8%	2.9%	.363	3.93	15.8%	8.7%	77	-0.72	2.91	198	76
Tyler Mitzel R 2021 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	20.8%	12.0%	2.1%	.323	4.14	23.4%	17.9%	58	+0.11	4.03	142	76
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.21	22.0%	8.7%	119	-0.35	2.12	165	76
Morgan McSweeney R 2023 · 5.19 FIP	25	SU	5.19	18.4%	12.6%	3.7%	.256	3.59	16.6%	9.3%	85	-1.60	3.20	213	76
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	76
Davison Palermo R 2023 · 4.32 FIP	23	SU	4.32	19.0%	12.4%	2.3%	.246	5.02	18.8%	6.8%	174	+0.70	4.32	218	75
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	75
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	75
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.86	18.0%	10.2%	272	-1.00	3.52	390	75
Cameron Gann R 2017 · 4.22 FIP	24	SU	4.22	21.4%	12.4%	2.5%	.296	5.36	21.1%	6.8%	23	+1.14	3.58	146	75
Kyle Whitten R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	24	SU	4.35	18.0%	9.5%	2.9%	.296	5.17	17.6%	7.7%	37	+0.82	4.32	152	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	19.8%	11.2%	1.22	4.97
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43