Tyler Owens
P
Erie SeaWolves
Age 25
RHP
5'10" / 185 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION38 act + 60 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 139130vR 121
ERA5.33
FIP5.33
K%19.4%
BB%13.1%
K-BB%6.2%
ROS IP60
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 97 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
FB (70%)
SL (23%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Braves | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 2.0 | 28.6% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 1.59 | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Braves | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 50% | 2.0 | 28.6% | 7.1% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 2.25 | 1.85 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 6 | 4 | 14 | 74 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 67% | 2.3 | 17.0% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 2.5% | 7.07 | 4.27 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 6 | 4 | 14 | 74 | 17 | 6 | 2 | 67% | 2.3 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 2.7% | 7.07 | 3.81 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 32 | 4 | 62 | 280 | 67 | 28 | 6 | 12% | 1.9 | 17.7% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 2.2% | 5.20 | 4.32 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Augusta GreenJackets | 32 | 4 | 62 | 280 | 67 | 28 | 6 | 12% | 1.9 | 23.9% | 10.0% | 13.9% | 2.1% | 5.20 | 3.55 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 15 | 65 | 286 | 67 | 22 | 5 | 52% | 2.3 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 2.7% | 3.03 | 4.11 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 29 | 15 | 65 | 286 | 67 | 22 | 5 | 52% | 2.3 | 23.4% | 7.7% | 15.7% | 1.7% | 3.03 | 3.05 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 39 | 0 | 52 | 214 | 55 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 12.6% | 1.9% | 2.96 | 3.43 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 39 | 0 | 52 | 214 | 55 | 16 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 25.7% | 7.5% | 18.2% | 1.4% | 2.96 | 2.65 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 1 | 33 | 164 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 3% | 1.0 | 16.7% | 15.5% | 1.2% | 5.2% | 6.21 | 6.51 | -0.8 |
| 2025 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 32 | 1 | 33 | 164 | 29 | 26 | 5 | 3% | 1.0 | 17.7% | 15.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 6.21 | 5.65 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Erie SeaWolves | 30 | 0 | 38 | 153 | 38 | 9 | 5 | 0% | 1.3 | 21.3% | 6.6% | 14.7% | 4.5% | 3.82 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 49 | 33 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 5.33 | 5.33 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | DET | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 5.33 | 5.33 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 97 | 404 | 87 | 42 | 13 | — | — | 21.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 3.3% | 4.75 | 5.05 | +0.3 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | DET | — | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 19.4% | 13.1% | 6.2% | 3.3% | 5.33 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 57 | 0 | 60 | 251 | 52 | 32 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 5.15 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 51 | 31 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 5.13 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 54 | 0 | 57 | 240 | 50 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.17 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | DET | 25 | 0 | 26 | 110 | 23 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 12.7% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 5.18 | 5.15 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | DET | 35 | 0 | 37 | 156 | 33 | 20 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.8% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 5.12 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | DET | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 38 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 12.5% | 8.3% | 3.4% | 5.13 | 5.17 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 105 | 0 | 110 | 468 | 95 | 60 | 15 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 12.8% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 4.78 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 191 | 0 | 200 | 849 | 172 | 109 | 27 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 12.8% | 7.5% | 3.2% | 5.08 | 4.78 | +1.4 | ||
| Career | — | 170 | 25 | 268 | 1185 | 223 | 119 | 35 | 15% | 1.6 | 18.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.42 | +3.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 127 | 19 | 200 | 883 | 166 | 89 | 26 | 15% | 1.6 | 18.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.23 | 4.42 | +2.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tyler Owens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.33 | 19.4% | 13.1% | 3.3% | — | 5.15 | 20.7% | 8.2% | 175 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Manny Barreda R 2027 · 4.91 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.91 | 21.2% | 14.7% | 3.2% | .286 | 3.68 | 19.6% | 9.5% | 186 | -1.23 | 3.19 | 376 | 83 |
| David Holman R 2028 · 5.25 FIP | 27 | SU | 5.25 | 15.6% | 12.7% | 3.4% | .324 | 5.21 | 9.6% | 0.5% | 107 | -0.04 | 5.04 | 129 | 77 |
| Trevor Martin R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.57 | 18.8% | 12.0% | 2.8% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 321 | 77 |
| Carlos Alvarado R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.00 | 16.3% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .342 | 4.48 | 24.3% | 14.8% | 78 | -0.52 | 2.72 | 102 | 77 |
| Haden Erbe R 2026 · 5.35 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.35 | 18.4% | 16.5% | 3.1% | .320 | 5.49 | 17.8% | 0.5% | 40 | +0.14 | 5.17 | 116 | 77 |
| Jordan Leasure R 2026 · 5.40 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.40 | 18.3% | 12.7% | 4.1% | .283 | 4.79 | 28.5% | 18.1% | 83 | -0.61 | 4.26 | 212 | 77 |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 76 |
| Andrew McInvale R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.08 | 17.6% | 15.9% | 2.6% | .324 | 7.06 | 24.5% | 10.0% | 23 | +1.98 | 4.90 | 103 | 76 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2029 · 4.81 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.81 | 19.8% | 13.5% | 3.0% | .265 | 3.88 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 272 | -0.93 | 3.53 | 365 | 76 |
| Will Latcham R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.56 | 18.8% | 11.5% | 2.9% | .279 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.63 | 134 | 76 |
| Derek Eitel R 2028 · 4.32 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.32 | 18.1% | 13.9% | 1.8% | .338 | 4.21 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 113 | -0.11 | 3.85 | 138 | 76 |
| Kyle Whitten R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.21 | 18.2% | 10.8% | 4.1% | .265 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.26 | 152 | 76 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 75 |
| Morgan McSweeney R 2026 · 5.37 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.37 | 19.6% | 14.7% | 3.8% | .256 | 3.94 | 15.0% | 5.6% | 61 | -1.43 | 3.94 | 189 | 75 |
| Sean Wymer R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.79 | 18.2% | 14.1% | 2.6% | .227 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 188 | 75 |
| Billy Seidl R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 75 |
| Zane Morehouse R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.86 | 19.3% | 15.8% | 2.5% | .321 | 6.20 | 18.6% | -0.4% | 17 | +1.34 | 2.62 | 116 | 75 |
| LJ McDonough R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 2.1% | .340 | 5.41 | 24.3% | 3.8% | 29 | +1.09 | 4.32 | 114 | 74 |
| Jay Driver R 2025 · 4.43 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.43 | 21.4% | 13.3% | 2.6% | .259 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 135 | 74 |
| Josh Hejka R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.87 | 16.7% | 10.8% | 3.3% | .363 | 4.09 | 15.8% | 8.7% | 77 | -0.78 | 2.94 | 182 | 74 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 59 | 20.4% | 12.7% | 1.29 | 5.19 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |