Davison Palermo — OGILVIE

Davison Palermo P Hartford Yard Goats

Age 26 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION66 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%19.1%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%8.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 73 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD5555

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	ROK MLE	ACL Rockies	2	0	1	7	2	2	1	0%	0.7	28.6%	28.6%	0.0%	14.3%	6.75	12.15	—
2022	22	ROK RAW	ACL Rockies	2	0	1	7	2	2	1	0%	0.7	28.6%	28.6%	0.0%	14.3%	6.75	14.35	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	38	0	43	191	49	20	4	0%	1.1	19.0%	12.4%	6.6%	2.3%	4.36	4.32	—
2023	23	A MLE	Fresno Grizzlies	38	0	43	191	49	20	4	0%	1.1	19.0%	12.4%	6.6%	2.3%	4.36	4.32	—
2023	23	A RAW	Fresno Grizzlies	38	0	43	191	49	20	4	0%	1.1	25.7%	10.5%	15.2%	2.1%	4.36	3.42	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	34	0	40	175	37	17	6	0%	1.2	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	3.9%	4.95	5.31	—
2024	24	A+ MLE	Spokane Indians	34	0	40	175	37	17	6	0%	1.2	16.3%	11.2%	5.1%	3.9%	4.95	5.31	—
2024	24	A+ RAW	Spokane Indians	34	0	40	175	37	17	6	0%	1.2	21.1%	9.7%	11.4%	3.4%	4.95	4.47	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	68	288	73	29	8	0%	1.5	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.4%	3.31	4.74	—
2025	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	68	288	73	29	8	0%	1.5	19.6%	11.4%	8.2%	3.4%	3.31	4.74	—
2025	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	68	288	73	29	8	0%	1.5	25.3%	10.1%	15.3%	2.8%	3.31	3.76	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	26	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	34	2	66	294	71	35	9	6%	2.0	19.6%	13.1%	6.5%	3.7%	6.51	5.12	—
YTD	26	AA MLE	Hartford Yard Goats	34	2	66	294	71	35	9	6%	2.0	19.6%	13.1%	6.5%	3.7%	6.51	5.12	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	26	AA RAW	COL	34	2	66	294	71	35	9	6%	1.9	24.1%	11.9%	12.2%	3.1%	6.51	4.25	—
ROS	26	MLB MLE	COL	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.8%	8.3%	3.1%	4.92	4.92	-0.0
2026 TOT	26	MLB MLE	COL	—	—	73	321	76	38	10	—	—	23.7%	11.8%	11.9%	3.1%	6.37	5.11	-0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	COL	66	0	69	291	57	31	9	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	3.1%	4.88	4.89	-0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	COL	64	0	67	282	56	30	9	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	3.2%	4.90	4.94	-0.3
2029	29	MLB MLE	COL	61	0	64	270	53	29	9	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.9%	8.8%	3.3%	4.97	5.04	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	COL	25	0	26	110	21	12	3	0%	1.0	19.5%	10.7%	8.8%	3.1%	4.88	4.89	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	COL	38	0	40	169	33	18	5	0%	1.1	19.7%	10.7%	9.0%	3.2%	4.90	4.94	-0.2
2029	29	MLB CTX	COL	43	0	45	190	37	21	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	10.9%	8.8%	3.3%	4.97	5.04	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		106	0	111	469	92	51	15	0%	1.0	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	3.2%	4.92	4.59	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	166	92	27	0%	1.1	19.6%	10.8%	8.8%	3.2%	4.92	4.59	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		154	2	219	955	181	116	33	1%	1.4	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	3.4%	4.81	4.93	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		141	2	200	872	165	106	30	1%	1.4	18.9%	12.2%	6.7%	3.4%	4.81	4.93	-0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davison Palermo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	19.1%	10.8%	3.1%	—	4.95	19.6%	8.9%	200	+0.03	—	—	—
Brett McKinney R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	26	SU	4.66	18.5%	9.9%	3.4%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	183	90
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	89
Jose Rafael De Paula R 2017 · 4.46 FIP	26	SU	4.46	19.9%	9.8%	3.3%	.278	4.79	22.7%	10.3%	89	+0.33	2.64	315	88
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	87
Colton Murray R 2016 · 3.97 FIP	26	SU	3.97	21.2%	9.4%	2.7%	.295	4.27	21.8%	13.1%	41	+0.30	3.34	187	87
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	87
Héctor Neris R 2015 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.9%	10.0%	2.5%	.298	3.03	31.5%	23.7%	221	-0.97	2.03	682	87
Carlos Gonzalez R 2016 · 3.78 FIP	26	SU	3.78	18.2%	8.7%	2.0%	.266	4.37	14.3%	2.3%	36	+0.59	3.75	154	86
Kyle Martin R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	26	SU	4.41	18.3%	10.0%	2.9%	.304	3.22	23.0%	10.0%	51	-1.19	3.01	214	86
Ryan Cook R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	16.5%	9.9%	3.2%	.297	3.96	25.1%	14.3%	50	-0.77	3.96	102	86
Jonathan Hughes R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	26	SU	4.31	17.1%	9.2%	2.7%	.283	3.54	17.1%	4.9%	50	-0.77	3.44	219	86
Troy Neiman R 2017 · 4.03 FIP	26	SU	4.03	18.1%	8.3%	2.5%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	199	85
Randall Delgado R 2016 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	20.2%	9.8%	2.4%	.303	4.07	19.2%	12.5%	143	+0.14	3.09	290	85
Justin De Fratus R 2015 · 3.84 FIP	27	SU	3.84	18.8%	8.3%	2.3%	.325	4.61	12.4%	6.9%	279	+0.77	3.84	500	85
Ronald Peña R 2018 · 4.19 FIP	26	SU	4.19	23.4%	11.6%	2.9%	.273	4.52	18.7%	7.1%	88	+0.33	3.72	187	85
Logan Bawcom R 2015 · 3.85 FIP	26	SU	3.85	15.8%	9.1%	1.7%	.320	4.35	15.9%	6.2%	259	+0.50	3.73	399	85
Daniel Corcino R 2017 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	21.7%	11.4%	2.2%	.292	4.91	19.0%	7.9%	223	+0.98	3.84	299	85
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	85
R.J. Alaniz R 2017 · 3.91 FIP	26	SU	3.91	20.7%	8.9%	2.6%	.318	3.28	23.8%	15.0%	96	-0.63	2.45	362	85
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	85

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	67	19.5%	10.8%	1.23	4.92
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21