Romeli Espinosa

SS FCL Phillies

Age 19 R/R 6'4" / 169 lbs ROK HR +14% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1342ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Phillies …	168	.282/.363/.430	2	12	36	—	.171/.250/.243
2026	18	A/ROKPHI	251	.208/.299/.282	1	3	22	—	.166/.238/.225
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBPHI	361	.207/.264/.297	4	6	58	-0.2
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBPHI	71	.214/.273/.320	1	1	66	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBPHI	157	.219/.279/.336	3	3	72	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Z-Con%76

K%54

Whiff%51

Speed49

ISO24

wRC+9

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsLuis Vázquez (age 19) · Ricardo Cova (age 19) · Pedro Severino (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 148 proj PA

wRC+†58

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .262 / .295

PA148

HR2

K%27

BB%5

ISO90

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$6M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$8M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Phillies White	—	168	149	42	6	5	2	10	34	9	12	4	282	363	430	793	148	354	20	6	356	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A	Clearwater Threshers	—	17	13	2	0	1	0	1	7	2	0	0	154	312	308	620	154	286	41	6	276	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	FCL Phillies	—	234	203	43	5	3	1	18	48	7	3	4	212	298	281	579	69	268	21	8	264	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	168	152	26	4	2	1	7	44	9	12	4	171	250	243	493	72	233	26	4	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	—	17	13	2	0	1	0	1	10	2	0	0	154	312	308	620	154	268	59	6	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Phillies	—	234	210	35	4	2	1	11	69	7	3	4	167	232	219	452	52	226	29	5	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	168	152	26	4	2	1	7	44	9	12	4	171	250	243	493	72	234	26	4	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	—	168	149	42	6	5	2	10	34	9	12	4	282	363	430	793	148	354	20	6	356	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	251	223	37	4	3	1	12	79	9	3	4	166	238	224	462	58	245	31	5	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	251	216	45	5	4	1	19	55	9	3	4	208	299	282	582	74	268	22	8	265	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	168	150	26	4	2	1	7	44	9	12	4	173	250	247	497	73	233	26	4	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	251	228	37	4	3	1	12	79	9	3	4	162	238	219	457	57	229	31	5	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	—	168	150	26	4	2	1	7	44	9	12	4	173	250	247	497	73	233	26	4	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	251	228	37	4	3	1	12	79	9	3	4	162	238	219	457	57	229	31	5	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	PHI	0%	361	333	68	11	3	4	19	97	6	6	2	207	264	297	561	90	277	27	5	254	58	-18	+0	-1	+4	+8	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	PHI	34%	206	188	40	6	2	3	12	54	4	4	1	213	272	316	588	103	279	26	6	265	66	-8	+0	-1	+2	+4	-0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	PHI	48%	323	295	64	10	3	6	19	84	6	7	2	218	278	331	609	113	281	26	6	274	72	-11	+1	-1	+3	+7	-0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	PHI	54%	414	379	84	14	4	8	25	106	7	9	3	222	283	343	626	121	283	26	6	281	76	-12	+1	-1	+4	+9	0.2
2031	23	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	472	432	97	16	4	10	29	120	8	11	4	225	287	352	639	127	284	25	6	286	80	-11	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.5
2032	24	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	509	463	105	17	4	12	32	128	9	12	4	227	290	359	649	132	285	25	6	290	83	-11	+1	+1	+5	+11	0.8
2033	25	MLB MLE	PHI	57%	531	483	111	18	5	13	34	133	9	12	4	228	291	362	652	134	285	25	6	292	84	-10	+1	+3	+6	+12	1.0
2034	26	MLB MLE	PHI	56%	541	493	112	18	5	13	34	136	9	12	4	228	291	363	654	135	285	25	6	292	84	-10	+1	+3	+6	+12	1.1
2035	27	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	542	493	112	18	5	13	35	137	9	12	4	227	290	361	651	134	285	25	6	291	83	-11	+1	+3	+6	+12	1.0
2036	28	MLB MLE	PHI	55%	536	488	110	18	5	12	34	136	9	11	4	225	288	356	644	131	284	25	6	288	81	-12	+1	+2	+6	+12	0.8
2037	29	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	525	478	107	17	4	12	33	135	9	10	4	223	285	350	636	127	283	26	6	285	79	-13	+0	+1	+6	+11	0.6
2038	30	MLB MLE	PHI	53%	511	466	103	17	4	11	32	133	8	9	4	220	282	343	625	123	281	26	6	280	76	-15	+0	+0	+5	+11	0.3
2028	20	MLB CTX	PHI	34%	71	66	14	2	1	1	4	19	1	1	0	214	273	320	593	106	280	27	6	267	66	-3	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	PHI	48%	157	144	31	5	1	3	9	41	3	3	1	219	279	336	615	117	282	26	6	276	72	-5	+0	-0	+2	+3	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	PHI	54%	225	205	46	7	2	5	14	58	4	5	2	223	284	348	633	125	283	26	6	283	76	-6	+0	-0	+2	+5	0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	267	244	55	9	2	6	16	68	5	6	2	226	288	358	646	132	285	25	6	289	80	-6	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2032	24	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	288	263	61	10	3	7	18	72	5	7	2	229	292	366	657	137	286	25	6	293	83	-6	+1	+1	+3	+6	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	PHI	57%	300	273	64	10	3	8	19	75	5	7	2	230	292	368	661	139	286	25	6	295	84	-6	+1	+1	+3	+6	0.6
2034	26	MLB CTX	PHI	56%	306	279	64	10	3	8	19	77	5	7	2	230	292	370	662	140	286	25	6	295	84	-6	+1	+2	+3	+7	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	300	273	64	10	3	8	19	76	5	7	2	229	292	367	659	138	285	25	6	294	83	-6	+1	+1	+3	+6	0.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	PHI	55%	294	268	61	10	2	7	19	75	5	6	2	227	290	363	652	136	285	26	6	291	81	-7	+0	+1	+3	+6	0.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	281	256	58	9	2	7	18	72	5	5	2	225	287	357	644	132	283	26	6	288	79	-7	+0	+1	+3	+6	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	PHI	53%	269	246	54	8	2	6	17	70	4	5	2	222	283	349	633	127	282	26	6	283	76	-8	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2758	2517	572	90	24	66	172	703	47	59	19	227	289	361	650	133	287	25	6	289	75	-66	+4	+6	+30	+60	3.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	593	135	21	6	16	41	166	11	14	4	228	290	364	654	137	287	26	6	289	75	-16	+1	+1	+7	+14	0.8
Career	—	MLE		—	5677	5169	1137	182	51	117	346	1465	108	127	47	220	283	343	626	123	282	26	6	279	75	-132	+7	+10	+56	+114	5.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	592	130	21	6	13	40	168	12	15	5	220	283	341	624	122	282	26	6	279	75	-16	+1	+1	+7	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Phillies · 234 PAwOBA .261 → .199 (−62)K% 20.5% → 29.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.51%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	29.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.69%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	4.88%
HBP% /PA	2.99%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	2.20%
Singles /BIP	21.94%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.035	×1.022	19.04%
Doubles /BIP	3.23%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.035	×1.022	2.46%
Triples /BIP	1.94%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.035	×1.022	1.47%
Home runs /BIP	0.65%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	0.51%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.035.

Result: wOBA .261 → .199; ISO .069 → .051; BABIP .268 → .226. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AClearwater Threshers · 17 PAwOBA .286 → .230 (−56)K% 41.2% → 56.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	41.18%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	56.00%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	4.26%
HBP% /PA	11.76%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	9.64%
Singles /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×1.050	16.10%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	16.67%	÷1.000	×0.910	—	×1.050	15.93%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .286 → .230; ISO .154 → .125; BABIP .286 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Phillies White · 168 PAwOBA .347 → .221 (−126)K% 20.2% → 26.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.24%	÷0.946	×1.220	—	—	26.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.95%	÷1.043	×0.700	—	×1.022	4.09%
HBP% /PA	5.36%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.83%
Singles /BIP	25.22%	÷0.960	×0.680	×0.963	×1.022	17.59%
Doubles /BIP	5.22%	÷0.958	×0.600	×0.963	×1.022	3.22%
Triples /BIP	4.35%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.963	×1.022	2.23%
Home runs /BIP	1.74%	÷0.844	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.99%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 92, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 89, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.963.

Result: wOBA .347 → .221; ISO .148 → .079; BABIP .354 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Alex Gonzalez'94-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,528 PA	8.3	5,528	137	97	232*	290*	379*	+55	+6	8.3	10.0
/162	664	16	12	+6.6	+0.8	1.0	pk7: 12
#3Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.4	2,905	63	61	225	283	351	+31	+16	4.3	4.0
/162	664	14	14	+7.1	+3.6	1.0	pk7: 4
#6Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Romeli Espinosa (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	205/262/295	89	277	2	3	27%	5%	58	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→47	36→45	49→50	39	193/238/260	66	278	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	208/254/280	72	286	5	10	28%	5%	51	-2.2	233/299/360	126	304	15	8	27%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Ricardo Cova 2023 · A	19	40→50	37→45	50→55	38	194/252/265	71	279	5	10	31%	5%	47	-2.5	212/270/300	88	304	7	18	30%	6%	62	-1.4	232/278/345	113	290	9	21	23%	5%	73	-0.4
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	40	185/238/269	84	259	7	4	30%	6%	43	-2.8	195/239/273	78	247	5	3	22%	5%	44	-2.8	242/310/379	137	297	17	3	24%	8%	96	+0.5
✕Gilberto Celestino 2018 · A	19	43→53	39→45	53→55	43	206/263/292	86	288	6	12	30%	7%	57	-1.8	220/271/312	92	287	7	10	24%	6%	65	-1.2	239/317/316	76	309	5	10	22%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→48	39→45	47→50	43	188/246/273	85	256	6	9	28%	7%	47	-2.6	195/254/294	99	297	8	8	35%	7%	55	-2.0	217/278/341	124	295	14	11	30%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Oswald Peraza 2019 · A	19	44→54	35→50	54→60	41	204/271/267	63	292	2	12	29%	6%	55	-1.9	229/284/316	87	301	8	20	25%	6%	71	-0.8	235/294/370	135	296	16	30	26%	6%	85	+0.2
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Franklin Barreto 2015 · A	19	44→50	41→55	49→50	37	209/262/323	114	301	7	9	32%	5%	64	-1.3	240/279/360	120	316	11	14	27%	4%	79	-0.2	221/279/390	169	326	20	13	37%	6%	84	+0.2
✕Jefferson Rojas 2024 · A	19	45→48	41→50	52→50	43	221/283/322	101	279	9	15	24%	6%	72	-0.7	222/283/337	115	269	12	16	21%	7%	76	-0.4	225/287/358	133	263	15	18	21%	7%	81	-0.1
✕Nick Allen 2018 · A	19	43→53	37→40	49→50	42	205/255/273	69	279	4	10	27%	6%	49	-2.4	210/260/281	71	273	2	14	22%	5%	53	-2.1	253/316/328	75	310	5	13	19%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Delino DeShields 2012 · A	19	41→51	40→45	50→65	42	201/260/289	88	279	8	16	30%	6%	56	-1.9	234/302/339	105	318	8	38	27%	8%	83	+0.1	239/313/347	108	322	9	47	26%	8%	87	+0.3
✕Rodolfo Castro 2018 · A	19	41→42	41→55	47→50	41	199/257/307	107	275	8	5	30%	6%	59	-1.7	197/239/329	132	279	14	5	33%	5%	57	-1.8	211/274/367	156	276	20	7	30%	7%	79	-0.2
✕Eguy Rosario 2019 · A	19	42→52	40→55	48→55	39	205/259/302	97	291	7	13	31%	6%	59	-1.7	227/277/345	118	314	10	16	29%	6%	74	-0.5	240/303/388	148	312	14	21	26%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Johanfran Garcia 2024 · A	19	41	40→50	49→45	42	199/270/291	93	282	8	6	31%	7%	61	-1.5	219/276/349	130	326	16	5	36%	6%	76	-0.4	218/265/369	151	318	23	4	38%	5%	74	-0.3
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Michael Wing 2008 · A	19	44→50	37→55	52→40	37	207/253/288	81	306	4	6	32%	5%	52	-2.2	220/268/323	103	300	6	5	27%	6%	66	-1.1	236/277/390	154	296	17	3	26%	4%	84	+0.1
✕Jesús Báez 2024 · A	19	35→41	40→55	45	46	177/246/265	88	234	7	9	27%	8%	46	-2.6	218/275/368	150	257	19	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	226/279/407	181	249	27	8	22%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Maximo Acosta 2022 · A	19	43→53	39→45	53→55	37	207/253/299	92	300	6	14	32%	5%	55	-2.0	222/272/317	95	292	8	24	26%	5%	66	-1.1	227/277/326	99	289	9	27	24%	5%	68	-0.8
✕Daniel Lopez 2011 · A	19	42	35→45	49→60	43	194/267/256	61	260	2	12	24%	6%	52	-2.2	219/280/308	89	280	5	17	22%	6%	68	-1.0	240/299/357	117	293	6	30	19%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Tyler Marlette 2012 · A	19	41→43	37→50	49→45	33	193/232/265	72	306	4	6	37%	4%	39	-3.1	231/265/343	112	314	11	7	29%	4%	70	-0.9	243/287/380	137	309	15	7	26%	5%	82	+0.0

Romeli Espinosa

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps