Ricardo Cova
SS Inland Empire 66ers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 20 | A/ROK2 orgs | 331 | .271/.365/.408 | 5 | 18 | 63 | — | .209/.282/.311 |
| 2025 | 21 | AModesto Nuts | 377 | .273/.326/.398 | 6 | 26 | 71 | — | .241/.286/.350 |
| 2026 | 22 | A+/ASEA | 449 | .295/.342/.459 | 9 | 32 | 82 | — | .256/.293/.391 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 23 | MLBSEA | 559 | .230/.270/.343 | 9 | 19 | 71 | 0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 24 | MLBSEA | 121 | .231/.274/.349 | 2 | 4 | 76 | 0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 25 | MLBSEA | 199 | .232/.277/.355 | 4 | 6 | 78 | 0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK | DSL Mariners | — | 92 | 77 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 247 | 356 | 312 | 667 | 65 | 281 | 14 | 10 | 308 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL Mariners | — | 154 | 140 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 307 | 370 | 450 | 820 | 143 | 430 | 29 | 6 | 367 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK | ACL Mariners | — | 106 | 91 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 330 | 425 | 440 | 864 | 110 | 509 | 31 | 13 | 391 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 127 | 110 | 22 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 25 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 290 | 264 | 554 | 64 | 250 | 20 | 8 | 255 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK | ACL Mariners | — | 204 | 174 | 55 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 28 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 316 | 411 | 500 | 911 | 184 | 350 | 14 | 12 | 400 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A | Modesto Nuts | — | 377 | 344 | 94 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 75 | 8 | 26 | 5 | 273 | 326 | 398 | 724 | 125 | 327 | 20 | 5 | 320 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Everett AquaSox | — | 95 | 93 | 29 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 312 | 326 | 452 | 778 | 140 | 377 | 17 | 2 | 342 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 354 | 321 | 93 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 50 | 6 | 24 | 7 | 290 | 347 | 461 | 808 | 171 | 316 | 14 | 6 | 353 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 92 | 80 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 175 | 267 | 225 | 492 | 50 | 194 | 17 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 154 | 143 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 175 | 234 | 238 | 472 | 63 | 272 | 36 | 4 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 106 | 96 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 48 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 208 | 283 | 281 | 564 | 73 | 411 | 45 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 127 | 113 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 34 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 168 | 242 | 221 | 463 | 53 | 222 | 27 | 6 | 208 | 27 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 204 | 183 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 3 | 16 | 4 | 235 | 307 | 366 | 673 | 131 | 271 | 20 | 8 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 377 | 349 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 98 | 8 | 26 | 5 | 241 | 286 | 350 | 635 | 109 | 297 | 26 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A+ MLE | Everett AquaSox | — | 95 | 94 | 24 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 255 | 263 | 372 | 635 | 117 | 328 | 23 | 1 | 267 | 67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 354 | 328 | 84 | 17 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 68 | 6 | 24 | 7 | 256 | 301 | 396 | 697 | 140 | 289 | 19 | 4 | 296 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 92 | 80 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 175 | 267 | 225 | 492 | 50 | 203 | 17 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Mariners | — | 92 | 77 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 247 | 356 | 312 | 667 | 65 | 281 | 14 | 10 | 308 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 154 | 143 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 175 | 234 | 238 | 472 | 63 | 276 | 36 | 4 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Mariners | — | 154 | 140 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 44 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 307 | 370 | 450 | 820 | 143 | 430 | 29 | 6 | 367 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 106 | 96 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 48 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 208 | 283 | 281 | 564 | 73 | 404 | 45 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Mariners | — | 106 | 91 | 30 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 330 | 425 | 440 | 864 | 110 | 509 | 31 | 13 | 391 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 331 | 296 | 61 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 75 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 206 | 279 | 301 | 580 | 95 | 257 | 23 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 331 | 284 | 77 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 53 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 271 | 365 | 408 | 773 | 137 | 312 | 16 | 11 | 344 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 377 | 349 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 98 | 8 | 26 | 5 | 241 | 286 | 350 | 635 | 109 | 311 | 26 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A RAW | Modesto Nuts | — | 377 | 344 | 94 | 23 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 75 | 8 | 26 | 5 | 273 | 326 | 398 | 724 | 125 | 327 | 20 | 5 | 320 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 449 | 421 | 107 | 24 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 90 | 6 | 32 | 7 | 254 | 293 | 385 | 678 | 131 | 305 | 20 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 449 | 414 | 122 | 29 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 66 | 6 | 32 | 7 | 295 | 342 | 459 | 801 | 164 | 329 | 15 | 5 | 351 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 92 | 82 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 171 | 267 | 220 | 486 | 49 | 194 | 17 | 7 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Mariners | — | 154 | 142 | 25 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 176 | 234 | 239 | 473 | 63 | 272 | 36 | 4 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Mariners | — | 106 | 95 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 48 | 1 | 17 | 3 | 211 | 283 | 284 | 567 | 74 | 411 | 45 | 8 | 254 | 58 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 331 | 298 | 61 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 75 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 205 | 279 | 299 | 578 | 94 | 252 | 23 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 377 | 352 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 98 | 8 | 26 | 5 | 239 | 286 | 347 | 632 | 108 | 297 | 26 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 449 | 423 | 107 | 24 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 90 | 6 | 32 | 7 | 253 | 293 | 383 | 676 | 130 | 297 | 20 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 331 | 298 | 61 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 75 | 7 | 18 | 5 | 205 | 279 | 299 | 578 | 94 | 252 | 23 | 7 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 21 | A MLE | Modesto Nuts | — | 377 | 352 | 84 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 98 | 8 | 26 | 5 | 239 | 286 | 347 | 632 | 108 | 297 | 26 | 4 | 273 | 71 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 449 | 423 | 107 | 24 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 90 | 6 | 32 | 7 | 253 | 293 | 383 | 676 | 130 | 297 | 20 | 4 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB MLE | SEA | 0% | 559 | 525 | 121 | 26 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 118 | 7 | 19 | 4 | 230 | 270 | 343 | 613 | 114 | 278 | 21 | 4 | 273 | 71 | -19 | +2 | +0 | +6 | +12 | 0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 24 | MLB MLE | SEA | 30% | 402 | 377 | 87 | 18 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 85 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 233 | 276 | 354 | 630 | 121 | 280 | 21 | 4 | 280 | 76 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +9 | 0.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB MLE | SEA | 44% | 450 | 421 | 98 | 20 | 3 | 9 | 20 | 95 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 234 | 279 | 360 | 639 | 126 | 280 | 21 | 4 | 284 | 78 | -12 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB MLE | SEA | 51% | 479 | 447 | 104 | 22 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 101 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 235 | 281 | 362 | 644 | 128 | 281 | 21 | 5 | 286 | 80 | -12 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +10 | 0.6 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB MLE | SEA | 52% | 486 | 453 | 106 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 103 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 234 | 282 | 362 | 645 | 128 | 281 | 21 | 5 | 287 | 80 | -12 | +2 | +0 | +5 | +11 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB MLE | SEA | 53% | 485 | 451 | 106 | 22 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 104 | 6 | 12 | 3 | 233 | 282 | 360 | 643 | 127 | 281 | 21 | 5 | 286 | 80 | -12 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB MLE | SEA | 53% | 475 | 442 | 102 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 24 | 104 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 231 | 280 | 355 | 634 | 123 | 280 | 22 | 5 | 282 | 77 | -13 | +1 | -1 | +5 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB MLE | SEA | 52% | 465 | 434 | 98 | 20 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 103 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 228 | 276 | 347 | 624 | 119 | 278 | 22 | 5 | 278 | 74 | -14 | +1 | -2 | +5 | +10 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB CTX | SEA | 30% | 121 | 113 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 231 | 274 | 349 | 623 | 119 | 277 | 21 | 4 | 277 | 76 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | 0.1 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB CTX | SEA | 44% | 199 | 185 | 43 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 232 | 277 | 355 | 632 | 123 | 278 | 21 | 5 | 281 | 78 | -5 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +4 | 0.2 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB CTX | SEA | 51% | 243 | 226 | 53 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 233 | 279 | 357 | 636 | 125 | 278 | 21 | 5 | 283 | 80 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +5 | 0.3 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB CTX | SEA | 52% | 255 | 237 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 232 | 280 | 357 | 637 | 125 | 278 | 21 | 5 | 284 | 80 | -6 | +1 | +0 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB CTX | SEA | 53% | 258 | 240 | 55 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 56 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 231 | 280 | 355 | 635 | 124 | 278 | 22 | 5 | 283 | 80 | -6 | +1 | -0 | +3 | +6 | 0.3 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB CTX | SEA | 53% | 250 | 232 | 54 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 55 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 229 | 278 | 350 | 627 | 121 | 277 | 22 | 5 | 280 | 77 | -7 | +1 | -1 | +3 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB CTX | SEA | 52% | 242 | 225 | 50 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 54 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 226 | 274 | 343 | 617 | 117 | 276 | 22 | 5 | 275 | 74 | -7 | +0 | -1 | +3 | +5 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1568 | 1458 | 336 | 68 | 11 | 30 | 77 | 337 | 20 | 39 | 9 | 230 | 278 | 354 | 632 | 123 | 279 | 21 | 5 | 281 | 74 | -41 | +4 | -2 | +17 | +34 | 1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 604 | 139 | 28 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 140 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 230 | 278 | 353 | 630 | 123 | 279 | 22 | 5 | 281 | 74 | -17 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4961 | 4607 | 1058 | 216 | 33 | 85 | 239 | 1122 | 74 | 196 | 44 | 230 | 279 | 346 | 625 | 117 | 284 | 23 | 5 | 277 | 74 | -92 | +10 | -4 | +37 | +75 | 2.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 138 | 28 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 147 | 10 | 26 | 6 | 228 | 278 | 343 | 620 | 114 | 282 | 23 | 5 | 277 | 74 | -17 | +2 | -1 | +7 | +14 | 0.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AInland Empire 66ers · 354 PAwOBA .347 → .296 (−52)K% 14.1% → 19.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.12% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.21% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.69% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.025 | — | 20.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.025 | — | 6.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.48% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.025 | — | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.66% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.
Result: wOBA .347 → .296; ISO .171 → .141; BABIP .316 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Everett AquaSox · 95 PAwOBA .332 → .267 (−65)K% 16.8% → 22.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.84% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 22.74% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 1.51% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 21.09% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 9.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.60% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 2.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .332 → .267; ISO .140 → .107; BABIP .377 → .328. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AModesto Nuts · 377 PAwOBA .317 → .273 (−44)K% 19.9% → 25.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.89% | ÷1.045 | ×1.360 | — | — | 25.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.04% | ÷0.988 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.12% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.79% | ÷0.989 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.015 | 22.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.55% | ÷1.067 | ×0.830 | ×1.006 | ×1.015 | 6.79% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.37% | ÷1.097 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | ×1.015 | 0.31% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.23% | ÷0.759 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.39% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 52, 1B 98, 2B 113, 3B 119, K 109, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .317 → .273; ISO .125 → .110; BABIP .327 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Mariners · 204 PAwOBA .394 → .295 (−99)K% 13.7% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.73% | ÷0.981 | ×1.440 | — | — | 20.14% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.25% | ÷0.966 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.83% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 1.05% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.66% | ÷0.962 | ×0.820 | ×0.960 | ×0.995 | 20.08% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷0.970 | ×0.720 | ×0.960 | ×0.995 | 5.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.05% | ÷1.150 | ×0.720 | ×0.960 | ×0.995 | 1.23% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.42% | ÷0.863 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.08% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 92, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.960.
Result: wOBA .394 → .295; ISO .184 → .142; BABIP .350 → .271. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AModesto Nuts · 127 PAwOBA .255 → .208 (−47)K% 19.7% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.69% | ÷0.993 | ×1.360 | — | — | 26.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.87% | ÷1.010 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.15% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 2.53% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.970 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 18.55% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.53% | ÷1.076 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 2.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 1.82% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.897 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 94, 2B 115, 3B 130, K 99, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .255 → .208; ISO .064 → .047; BABIP .250 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Mariners · 106 PAwOBA .382 → .254 (−128)K% 31.1% → 45.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.13% | ÷0.992 | ×1.440 | — | — | 45.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.21% | ÷0.989 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.34% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.68% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.93% | ÷0.987 | ×0.820 | — | ×1.008 | 31.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.07% | ÷0.993 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 8.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.72% | ÷0.945 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 1.43% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 97, 2B 99, 3B 100, K 98, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .382 → .254; ISO .110 → .070; BABIP .509 → .411. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL Mariners · 154 PAwOBA .357 → .211 (−146)K% 28.6% → 35.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷0.977 | ×1.220 | — | — | 35.68% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.84% | ÷1.055 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.25% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 2.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.29% | ÷0.991 | ×0.680 | ×0.953 | ×1.008 | 21.28% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.29% | ÷0.953 | ×0.600 | ×0.953 | ×1.008 | 4.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.08% | ÷1.105 | ×0.600 | ×0.953 | ×1.008 | 1.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.015 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.46% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 98, 2B 91, 3B 121, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .357 → .211; ISO .143 → .070; BABIP .430 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Mariners · 92 PAwOBA .304 → .212 (−92)K% 14.1% → 17.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.13% | ÷0.996 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.31% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.78% | ÷1.026 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 6.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.35% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 3.11% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷0.957 | ×0.680 | ×0.986 | ×1.022 | 17.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.12% | ÷1.177 | ×0.600 | ×0.986 | ×1.022 | 1.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.939 | ×0.600 | ×0.986 | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.56% | ÷1.004 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 0.75% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 91, 2B 135, 3B 88, K 99, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.
Result: wOBA .304 → .212; ISO .065 → .033; BABIP .281 → .194. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).