Trey Lipscomb — OGILVIE

Trey Lipscomb3B Rochester Red Wings

Age 26 R/R 6'2" / 202 lbs AAA Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION296 act + 197 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†vL -284vR 89

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .271 / .380

PA197

HR6

K%26

BB%5

BABIP283

ISO152

MLB%10%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

4311.7%

xwOBA

140.266

POWER30

Barrel%

100.7

Avg EV

1084.9

Bat Spd

3770.0

EYE45

Chase%

3335.0%

SPEED50

Sprint

5027.5

Platoon Splits2024 · 211 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

136

—

wRC+

-35

▶▶R

wOBA

140

285

▶▶R

ISO

014

042

▶▶R

BABIP

152

308

▶▶R

17.3%

19.9%

◀L

BB%

2.7%

10.3%

▶▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	+0.0	$0.1M	+$0.0M
2027	Arb-2	$0.2M	—	—	—
2028	Arb-3	$0.4M	—	—	—
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.1M		$-0.2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	101	98	27	4	1	1	3	29	0	12	1	276	297	367	664	92	382	29	3	271	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	101	97	29	4	1	1	4	19	0	12	1	299	327	392	718	93	364	19	4	321	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	631	601	141	30	2	13	21	159	4	11	6	235	265	356	621	121	295	25	3	267	62	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	3 teams	—	631	594	156	31	2	15	28	121	4	11	6	263	300	397	698	135	305	19	4	308	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	475	438	95	15	0	4	32	105	3	19	7	217	275	279	553	62	276	22	7	251	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	2 teams	—	475	430	106	17	0	5	38	90	3	19	7	247	311	321	632	74	301	19	8	288	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	489	460	105	25	1	10	24	108	2	12	6	228	270	352	622	124	276	22	5	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	489	449	112	29	1	11	35	95	2	12	6	249	307	392	699	143	293	19	7	311	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	26	AAA	WSH	—	296	280	68	14	1	14	11	92	0	6	1	243	271	450	721	207	305	31	4	302	89	-4	+1	+0	+1	+8	0.7
YTD	26	AAA	WSH	—	296	275	77	17	1	17	16	77	0	6	1	280	320	535	854	255	326	26	5	365	137	+12	+1	+0	+1	+8	2.3
ROS	26	AAA	WSH	10%	197	184	42	8	1	6	10	52	1	4	1	228	271	380	651	152	276	26	5	282	74	-6	+0	-1	+1	+6	0.0
ROS	26	MLB	WSH	10%	20	19	5	1	0	1	1	5	0	0	0	263	300	474	774	211	276	25	5	279	72	-1	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.0
FULL	26	AAA	WSH	—	316	299	73	15	1	15	12	97	0	6	1	244	273	452	725	207	305	31	4	301	88	-4	+1	-0	+1	+9	0.7
TOT	26	AAA	WSH	—	493	464	110	22	2	20	21	144	1	10	2	237	271	422	694	185	296	29	4	294	83	-9	+1	-1	+2	+14	0.7
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	WSH	31%	395	371	83	17	1	12	20	104	1	8	2	224	265	372	637	148	275	26	5	281	73	-12	+1	-1	+1	+11	0.0
2028	28	MLB	WSH	42%	403	379	84	17	1	12	20	106	1	8	2	222	263	367	629	145	274	26	5	280	72	-13	+1	-2	+1	+11	-0.1
2027	27	MLB	WSH	31%	123	116	26	5	0	4	6	32	0	3	1	224	262	371	633	147	275	26	5	278	71	-4	+0	-0	+0	+3	-0.0
2028	28	MLB	WSH	42%	170	158	35	7	0	5	9	45	1	3	1	222	268	361	629	139	274	26	5	277	70	-6	+0	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	524	483	104	16	0	11	32	122	3	17	4	215	268	317	585	101	263	23	6	260	57	-25	+2	-3	+3	+15	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	130	20	0	14	40	151	4	21	5	217	270	321	591	104	265	23	6	260	57	-31	+2	-4	+3	+18	-1.2
Career	—			—	2691	2531	577	116	7	58	130	663	12	74	25	228	269	348	617	120	285	25	5	270	64	-108	+5	-6	+10	+76	-2.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	611	140	28	2	14	31	160	3	18	6	229	269	350	620	121	286	25	5	270	64	-26	+1	-1	+2	+18	-0.6

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2022	22	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	101	97	29	4	1	1	4	19	0	12	1	299	327	392	718	93	364	19	4	321	104	+0	+2	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	23	AA	Harrisburg Senators	—	335	320	91	15	2	10	12	61	1	4	3	284	312	438	750	153	323	18	4	329	110	+4	-0	—	—	+9	1.3
2023	23	A+	Wilmington Blue Rocks	—	212	191	48	14	0	4	15	42	3	6	3	251	316	387	703	136	297	20	7	312	97	-1	+0	—	—	+6	0.5
2023	23	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	84	83	17	2	0	1	1	18	0	1	0	205	214	265	479	60	250	21	1	214	22	-7	+0	—	—	+2	-0.5
2024	24	MLB	Washington Nationals	—	211	190	38	3	0	1	16	40	2	11	2	200	268	232	500	32	247	19	8	234	37	-15	+1	-2	+2	+6	-0.8
2024	24	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	264	240	68	14	0	4	22	50	1	8	5	283	345	392	736	108	344	19	8	332	112	+4	-0	—	—	+7	1.1
2025	25	AAA	Rochester Red Wings	—	489	449	112	29	1	11	35	95	2	12	6	249	307	392	699	143	293	19	7	311	96	-2	+0	—	—	+14	1.2
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	211	190	38	3	0	1	16	40	2	11	2	200	268	232	500	32	247	19	8	234	37	-15	+1	-2	+2	+6	-0.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	9	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
	/162	664	18	6	227	293	367	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#4Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#5Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	538	10	18	214	264	315	+2	-1	-0.6	-0.6
	/162	664	13	22	214	264	315	+2.4	-1.7	-0.7	pk7: -1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Trey Lipscomb (OGILVIE)	26	45	30	50	45	237/271/422	185	296	20	10	29%	4%	83	+0.7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Danny Mendick 2020 · MLB	26	43→49	45	47→50	47	214/277/338	123	257	13	15	22%	7%	70	-0.3	228/286/342	114	285	12	10	23%	7%	76	+0.0	230/289/365	135	277	15	15	22%	7%	78	+0.1
✕Tyler Goeddel 2019 · MLB	26	42→50	40→45	51→55	44	205/267/295	91	267	7	12	25%	6%	55	-1.4	199/260/288	89	303	7	8	34%	6%	50	-1.8	161/226/217	56	280	2	2	40%	6%	16	-1.5
✕Brett Dowdy 2008 · AAA	26	48→50	39→40	51→50	47	228/283/313	85	279	6	13	20%	6%	66	-0.6	225/271/321	96	273	9	12	20%	5%	63	-0.9	221/265/314	93	264	9	11	19%	4%	54	-1.0
✕Alay Lago 2017 · AAA	26	47→55	42→40	54→45	40	229/263/334	106	278	9	13	22%	4%	63	-0.9	242/269/332	90	294	8	8	20%	3%	64	-0.8	248/272/327	79	299	6	6	19%	3%	60	-0.6
✕Danny Worth 2012 · MLB	26	46→52	42→45	52→50	43	225/277/332	106	293	9	16	26%	6%	68	-0.5	208/271/306	98	297	7	15	30%	7%	59	-1.1	221/288/315	95	324	7	9	32%	8%	66	-0.4
✕Jose Cardona 2019 · AAA	25	46→48	40	46→50	42	225/266/311	86	267	9	14	20%	4%	58	-1.2	219/270/300	81	278	8	12	23%	5%	56	-1.3	199/254/218	19	260	2	9	23%	5%	26	-0.9
✕Devin Lohman 2015 · AA	26	44→46	40	46→50	43	216/270/307	91	268	8	13	22%	5%	59	-1.1	208/262/292	84	283	7	10	28%	5%	52	-1.6	167/224/207	40	245	2	8	30%	5%	11	-1.5
✕Charlie Culberson 2015 · MLB	26	42→49	43→45	49→50	38	211/248/325	114	273	11	13	27%	4%	54	-1.4	217/254/318	101	284	9	11	26%	4%	54	-1.4	254/306/422	168	324	18	9	26%	6%	98	+0.7
✕Robert Andino 2010 · MLB	26	46→53	43→45	47→50	43	228/275/341	113	285	10	14	24%	6%	69	-0.4	227/275/325	98	280	8	13	21%	6%	66	-0.6	224/284/302	79	286	6	9	23%	7%	62	-0.7
✕Donnie Sadler 2001 · MLB	26	46	44→45	50→55	47	226/280/340	114	258	11	13	18%	6%	72	-0.2	195/266/279	84	234	6	17	19%	8%	50	-1.7	208/282/308	100	273	4	16	23%	9%	62	-0.3
✕Jose Duarte 2011 · AAA	26	48→56	40	50→55	46	229/282/320	90	285	7	17	22%	7%	66	-0.6	232/300/328	96	291	7	13	21%	9%	77	+0.1	232/308/322	90	288	6	13	20%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Kramer Robertson 2021 · AAA	26	44→51	41→45	45→55	51	214/298/315	101	261	9	13	21%	8%	74	-0.1	208/299/315	107	268	11	19	25%	9%	75	-0.0	194/295/284	90	255	9	22	25%	10%	63	-0.7
✕Mike Miller 2016 · AAA	26	50→48	38→40	48→50	43	240/275/321	82	281	6	13	17%	4%	63	-0.8	234/282/304	70	280	4	13	17%	5%	63	-0.9	236/288/292	55	288	4	9	18%	6%	60	-0.6
✕Jorge Flores 2019 · AAA	27	41→51	40→30	45→50	42	201/248/288	87	250	7	8	23%	5%	44	-2.1	252/334/352	100	301	10	13	19%	8%	98	+1.6	266/357/352	86	314	10	14	17%	8%	103	+1.6
✕Matt Lipka 2018 · AAA	26	41→51	41→45	54→60	39	204/250/302	99	266	8	18	26%	4%	49	-1.8	211/262/315	104	282	8	22	27%	6%	57	-1.2	230/283/343	114	308	11	31	28%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Jecksson Flores 2021 · AAA	27	45→53	41→40	52→55	43	219/266/311	92	266	9	18	21%	5%	58	-1.2	218/283/309	91	269	6	8	20%	7%	65	-0.7	215/285/297	81	265	4	4	19%	7%	59	-0.5
✕Yusniel Díaz 2023 · AAA	26	42→50	43→45	46→50	41	209/266/311	102	293	12	12	32%	7%	59	-1.1	234/305/382	148	295	17	12	25%	9%	94	+1.3	246/322/413	168	301	19	8	24%	10%	105	+1.4
✕Errol Robinson 2021 · AAA	26	44→47	40	46→55	41	214/265/299	85	290	8	13	28%	6%	54	-1.4	203/274/275	72	321	5	17	35%	8%	53	-1.5	204/277/255	51	317	3	26	33%	8%	45	-0.7
✕Jeff Bianchi 2013 · MLB	26	48→56	40→45	50	43	233/274/320	87	288	7	16	22%	5%	63	-0.8	231/270/314	83	287	7	11	21%	5%	59	-1.1	229/265/294	65	283	5	9	20%	5%	49	-0.6
✕Kristopher Negrón 2012 · AAA	26	43→51	43→45	55	40	212/265/319	107	275	10	18	26%	5%	60	-1.0	201/251/304	103	277	9	18	30%	5%	50	-1.7	219/281/336	117	319	13	14	33%	6%	68	-0.4