Denzer Guzman — OGILVIE

Denzer GuzmanSS Salt Lake Bees

INJURED · Reassigned to Minors (RM)

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs AAA HR -5% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030 peak 1.4 · 2030

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.203 / .270 / .353

PA256

HR8

SB5

K%34

BB%7

MLB%40%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

24↗37

PWR

41↗50

SPD

57↘50

FLD

50↗56

EYE

48↗60

trajectory · 10 yrs

2.3peak

2030

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2028	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$8M	+$6M
2029	Arb-2	$5M	+1.3	$11M	+$6M
2030	Arb-3	$8M	+1.4	$13M	+$4M
Totals		$16M		$35M	+$18M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Angels	164	149	23	7	1	3	12	35	1	11	7	.154	.222	.275	.497	.121	.177	21	7	.217	24	-14	-1	+0	+2	+5	-0.8
2022	18	ROK	2 teams	234	217	40	7	2	2	13	76	2	4	1	.184	.237	.263	.500	.078	.270	32	6	.223	29	-19	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.9
2023	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	472	437	78	15	5	6	31	176	2	8	4	.178	.236	.277	.513	.098	.280	37	7	.227	32	-36	+0	+0	+5	+13	-1.8
2024	20	AA	3 teams	451	411	72	10	1	6	30	169	3	10	7	.175	.236	.248	.485	.073	.277	37	7	.214	22	-40	-1	+0	+5	+13	-2.3
2025	21	AA	4 teams	613	555	107	28	1	17	46	210	8	15	4	.193	.264	.339	.603	.146	.271	34	8	.266	62	-26	+1	-4	+7	+17	-0.5
▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total)
2026	22	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	100	90	19	2	0	2	8	27	0	2	2	.211	.276	.300	.576	.089	.270	27	8	.274	68	-4	-0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
ROS	22	MLB	LAA	156	142	30	6	0	5	12	51	1	3	1	.211	.277	.359	.637	.148	.283	33	8	.278	71	-5	+0	-2	+2	+4	-0.1
TOT	22	MLB	LAA	256	232	49	8	0	7	20	78	1	5	3	.211	.277	.336	.613	.125	.280	30	8	.276	70	-9	-0	-2	+3	+7	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	23	MLB 58%	LAA	661	599	132	26	2	21	52	205	5	13	5	.220	.288	.376	.664	.155	.294	31	8	.295	84	-12	+1	-9	+7	+19	0.5
2028	24	MLB 76%	LAA	673	606	136	27	2	22	56	203	6	13	5	.224	.296	.384	.681	.160	.294	30	8	.301	89	-9	+1	-9	+7	+19	0.9
2029	25	MLB 91%	LAA	678	609	138	27	2	22	58	201	6	13	5	.227	.300	.386	.686	.159	.295	30	9	.306	92	-6	+1	-10	+7	+19	1.2
2030	26	MLB	LAA	678	608	139	27	2	23	59	199	6	13	5	.229	.303	.393	.696	.164	.295	29	9	.308	94	-5	+1	-10	+7	+19	1.3
2031	27	MLB	LAA	673	603	137	27	2	22	59	199	6	13	5	.227	.302	.388	.690	.161	.295	30	9	.308	94	-5	+1	-9	+7	+19	1.3
2032	28	MLB	LAA	665	595	134	26	2	22	59	198	6	12	4	.225	.302	.387	.688	.161	.295	30	9	.307	93	-5	+1	-10	+7	+19	1.2
2033	29	MLB	LAA	653	584	131	26	2	21	58	196	6	10	4	.224	.301	.384	.684	.159	.294	30	9	.305	91	-6	+0	-11	+7	+19	0.9
2034	30	MLB	LAA	641	574	127	25	2	20	57	194	5	9	3	.221	.297	.376	.673	.155	.293	30	9	.301	89	-8	+1	-11	+7	+18	0.7
2035	31	MLB	LAA	626	560	122	24	1	19	56	192	5	6	2	.218	.295	.366	.661	.148	.291	31	9	.298	86	-10	+0	-12	+7	+18	0.3
2036	32	MLB	LAA	607	543	117	23	1	18	54	190	5	3	1	.215	.292	.361	.653	.145	.290	31	9	.293	82	-12	+0	-12	+7	+17	-0.0
2037	33	MLB	LAA	577	517	109	21	1	17	51	184	4	1	0	.211	.287	.354	.641	.143	.288	32	9	.287	78	-14	+0	-12	+6	+16	-0.4
2038	34	MLB	LAA	528	473	97	19	1	14	46	173	4	0	0	.205	.281	.338	.619	.133	.286	33	9	.281	73	-16	+0	-12	+6	+15	-0.8
2039	35	MLB	LAA	471	424	85	16	1	12	41	159	3	0	0	.200	.276	.328	.603	.127	.283	34	9	.273	67	-18	+0	-12	+5	+13	-1.2
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			10221	9206	1954	387	31	292	850	3210	84	157	63	.212	.285	.356	.641	.144	.289	31	8	.286	77	-266	+6	-145	+110	+290	-0.7
/ 162G	—			650	585	125	25	2	19	54	204	5	10	4	.214	.285	.361	.646	.147	.290	31	8	.286	77	-17	+0	-9	+7	+18	-0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Angels	164	141	30	10	1	3	20	24	1	11	7	.213	.315	.362	.677	.149	.233	15	12	.304	91	-2	-1	—	—	+5	0.2
2022	18	A	Inland Empire 66ers	23	17	3	0	0	0	6	10	0	1	0	.176	.391	.176	.568	.000	.429	43	26	.300	88	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	18	ROK	ACL Angels	211	192	55	11	3	3	15	44	2	3	1	.286	.344	.422	.766	.135	.354	21	7	.339	118	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.1
2023	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	472	426	102	21	7	7	42	131	2	8	4	.239	.311	.371	.682	.131	.328	28	9	.306	92	-4	+0	—	—	+13	0.9
2024	20	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	342	296	61	9	1	6	36	90	3	7	6	.206	.298	.304	.602	.098	.272	26	11	.274	68	-12	-1	—	—	+10	-0.4
2024	20	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	84	79	23	3	1	0	4	28	0	3	1	.291	.325	.354	.680	.063	.451	33	5	.303	90	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2024	20	INTL	Toros del Este	25	25	5	1	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	.200	.200	.240	.440	.040	.312	36	0	.196	8	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	21	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	43	42	8	1	0	2	1	22	0	0	0	.190	.209	.357	.566	.167	.333	51	2	.248	48	-3	+0	-4	+7	+1	0.2
2025	21	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	153	130	34	7	0	6	21	45	1	6	0	.262	.368	.454	.822	.192	.350	29	14	.365	138	+6	+1	—	—	+4	1.2
2025	21	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	386	335	81	23	1	11	41	92	7	8	3	.242	.337	.415	.752	.173	.298	24	11	.335	115	+6	+0	—	—	+11	1.8
2025	21	INTL	Toros del Este	31	26	3	1	0	1	5	10	0	1	1	.115	.258	.269	.527	.154	.133	32	16	.250	50	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			43	42	8	1	0	2	1	22	0	0	0	.190	.209	.357	.566	.167	.333	51	2	.248	48	-3	+0	-4	+7	+1	0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Denzer Guzman (OGILVIE)	22	24→37	41→50	57→50	60	.203/.270/.353	.150	.285	8	5	34%	7%	73	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●Jo Adell 2021 · MLB	22	43→44	49→65	50	37	.217/.269/.369	.152	.313	17	10	36%	6%	76	+0.0	.215/.266/.393	.178	.304	23	10	36%	6%	81	+0.4	.218/.285/.446	.228	.252	34	12	29%	7%	101	+1.4
✕Yu Chang 2018 · AA	22	37→44	49→50	49→45	39	.195/.252/.345	.150	.266	17	9	33%	6%	63	-0.9	.209/.268/.346	.137	.291	14	7	32%	7%	69	-0.4	.213/.268/.374	.161	.271	20	6	29%	6%	75	-0.0
●Nolan Gorman 2022 · AAA	22	41→43	50→60	49→45	38	.217/.263/.368	.151	.290	19	6	32%	5%	72	-0.2	.225/.287/.421	.196	.300	28	7	34%	8%	97	+1.5	.213/.287/.426	.213	.280	31	7	35%	9%	95	+1.2
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	39→43	51→55	54→50	47	.204/.289/.363	.160	.282	18	16	33%	10%	82	+0.5	.215/.301/.392	.177	.270	21	10	27%	10%	95	+1.4	.206/.293/.385	.178	.247	22	6	26%	10%	88	+0.6
✕Brennen Davis 2023 · AAA	23	40→41	49→50	43→45	40	.203/.283/.349	.146	.303	17	7	37%	7%	77	+0.1	.191/.276/.326	.135	.260	17	9	32%	7%	69	-0.4	.172/.265/.319	.148	.217	21	9	31%	7%	61	-0.4
✕Alan Espinoza 2013 · AAA	22	44	44→55	52→45	40	.216/.267/.333	.117	.301	11	12	31%	6%	64	-0.8	.230/.279/.352	.122	.283	13	8	23%	5%	75	-0.0	.255/.294/.411	.157	.288	19	3	19%	4%	94	+0.7
●Jeremiah Jackson 2023 · AA	23	38→48	50→55	48→55	41	.200/.261/.356	.156	.274	18	12	33%	7%	69	-0.4	.216/.264/.378	.162	.287	21	15	32%	6%	76	+0.0	.228/.269/.395	.167	.290	22	15	29%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Sherten Apostel 2021 · MLB	22	38→32	46→50	46→40	42	.195/.263/.322	.127	.277	15	4	34%	8%	61	-1.0	.203/.264/.333	.130	.328	14	4	40%	7%	64	-0.8	.191/.253/.324	.132	.303	16	0	40%	6%	54	-0.7
✕Rodolfo Castro 2022 · MLB	23	37→42	53→55	45→50	36	.206/.249/.375	.169	.268	22	7	32%	5%	69	-0.4	.216/.278/.374	.158	.286	20	8	31%	7%	81	+0.4	.207/.276/.361	.154	.269	19	11	30%	7%	74	-0.1
✕Clint Frazier 2017 · AAA	22	45→46	46→55	49→50	41	.222/.281/.356	.133	.310	13	10	32%	7%	77	+0.1	.231/.288/.396	.165	.302	17	10	28%	7%	90	+1.0	.237/.308/.417	.181	.301	20	6	27%	8%	101	+0.9
●Tom Murphy 2014 · AA	23	40→35	50→65	43→45	38	.208/.269/.365	.156	.292	18	6	34%	6%	75	-0.0	.209/.263/.380	.171	.291	21	5	35%	6%	76	+0.1	.244/.316/.459	.215	.308	30	2	30%	9%	117	+1.2
✕Michael Chavis 2018 · AA	22	38→47	52→60	46→45	36	.207/.252/.373	.165	.272	21	4	32%	4%	69	-0.4	.235/.290/.418	.183	.313	24	5	32%	6%	97	+1.5	.239/.300/.427	.188	.323	26	5	33%	7%	99	+0.7
✕Aaron Luna 2010 · AA	23	40→43	50	49→45	46	.207/.313/.367	.160	.264	17	8	27%	8%	95	+1.4	.222/.323/.370	.148	.277	16	7	25%	8%	100	+1.7	.221/.326/.364	.144	.274	17	6	24%	9%	97	+1.0
✕Isan Díaz 2019 · AAA	23	39→40	46→55	48→45	43	.198/.269/.330	.132	.286	14	10	34%	8%	66	-0.6	.209/.280/.354	.145	.285	17	7	31%	8%	76	+0.1	.204/.284/.367	.164	.263	21	5	30%	9%	75	+0.0
●Zack Gelof 2023 · AAA	23	44→50	53→55	52→55	42	.227/.289/.396	.169	.319	22	13	35%	8%	91	+1.1	.230/.295/.400	.170	.324	21	23	33%	8%	95	+1.4	.222/.291/.389	.167	.310	21	27	34%	8%	88	+0.7
✕Jake Rogers 2019 · AA	24	38→40	47→55	48→45	41	.196/.261/.330	.133	.269	15	9	32%	7%	62	-0.9	.203/.278/.366	.163	.280	20	6	33%	8%	79	+0.3	.206/.283/.412	.206	.265	29	1	33%	8%	91	+0.6
✕Jorge Alfaro 2015 · AA	22	41→51	47→50	48→50	33	.208/.259/.345	.136	.300	14	8	35%	4%	65	-0.7	.219/.263/.345	.126	.320	13	5	35%	4%	66	-0.6	.259/.315/.406	.147	.380	19	6	35%	5%	97	+0.8
✕Dillon Dingler 2022 · AA	23	40→50	48→55	50→45	35	.205/.265/.340	.135	.298	16	5	36%	5%	67	-0.5	.206/.274/.362	.156	.303	19	5	37%	7%	76	+0.1	.237/.296/.409	.172	.301	22	4	28%	6%	94	+0.9
✕Joey Bart 2020 · AA	23	43	52→50	45→40	38	.228/.270/.393	.165	.288	21	7	29%	5%	82	+0.5	.229/.283/.369	.140	.329	16	5	34%	5%	81	+0.4	.234/.323/.349	.115	.320	13	1	28%	9%	90	+0.6
✕Ivan Jimenez 2015 · AAA	22	44	44→40	52→55	35	.212/.255/.327	.115	.320	11	11	36%	5%	58	-1.2	.235/.280/.323	.088	.314	7	13	26%	5%	66	-0.6	.272/.336/.356	.084	.346	2	18	20%	7%	93	+0.5

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)