Denzer Guzman — OGILVIE

Denzer GuzmanSS Salt Lake Bees

Age 22 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs MLB HR -4% Svc 1.000 · Ctrl thru 2030

2026 ROS PROJECTION383 act + 255 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†95

AVG/OBP/SLG.240 / .300 / .399

PA255

HR8

SB6

K%26

BB%7

BABIP299

ISO159

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 37 / POW 50

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT37

Whiff%

905.3%

xwOBA

170.269

POWER50

Barrel%

548.7

Avg EV

2487.2

Bat Spd

5872.1

EYE60

Chase%

909.2%

SPEED50

Sprint

5527.7

DEFENSE56

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 1.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2030

First FA Year 2031

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.3M	+0.9	$4M	+$3M
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.3	$10M	+$9M
2028	Arb-1	$3M	+1.6	$11M	+$8M
2029	Arb-2	$7M	+1.8	$11M	+$7M
2030	Arb-3	$11M	+1.8	$11M	+$4M
Totals		$22M		$46M	+$31M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	164	149	24	8	1	3	12	35	1	11	7	161	228	289	517	128	186	21	7	222	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	164	141	30	10	1	3	20	24	1	11	7	213	315	362	677	149	233	15	12	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	2 teams	—	234	216	39	6	2	2	14	76	2	4	1	181	237	255	492	74	264	32	6	223	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	2 teams	—	234	209	58	11	3	3	21	54	2	4	1	278	349	402	751	124	357	23	9	335	115	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	472	436	77	15	4	7	32	176	2	8	4	177	236	278	514	101	275	37	7	227	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	472	426	102	21	7	7	42	131	2	8	4	239	311	371	682	131	328	28	9	306	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AA	3 teams	—	451	410	72	9	1	6	31	170	3	10	7	176	239	246	485	71	280	38	7	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AA	3 teams	—	451	400	89	13	2	6	40	127	3	10	7	223	297	310	607	87	309	28	9	275	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	4 teams	—	613	554	106	29	1	16	47	210	8	15	4	191	264	334	598	143	271	34	8	263	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	4 teams	—	613	533	126	32	1	20	68	169	8	15	4	236	332	413	744	176	305	28	11	332	112	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	22	AAA	LAA	—	383	354	94	16	2	13	26	91	1	10	5	266	318	432	750	167	321	24	7	326	107	+3	+0	+0	+4	+11	1.9
YTD	22	AAA	LAA	—	383	345	108	20	2	16	34	77	1	10	5	313	375	522	897	209	362	20	9	392	158	+25	+0	+0	+4	+11	4.1
ROS	22	AAA	LAA	100%	255	233	56	11	1	8	18	66	2	6	2	240	300	399	699	159	294	26	7	309	95	-1	+0	-5	+3	+7	0.4
ROS	22	MLB	LAA	100%	255	233	55	10	1	8	18	66	2	6	2	236	296	391	687	155	293	26	7	303	90	-3	+0	-5	+3	+7	0.3
FULL	22	AAA	LAA	—	638	587	149	26	3	21	44	157	3	16	7	254	309	416	725	162	311	25	7	317	100	+0	+0	-5	+7	+18	2.1
TOT	22	AAA	LAA	—	638	587	150	27	3	21	44	157	3	16	7	255	311	419	729	163	313	25	7	319	102	+2	+0	-5	+7	+18	2.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	23	MLB	LAA	65%	660	603	145	28	2	22	48	170	4	14	5	240	301	403	704	163	295	26	7	312	97	-2	+1	-12	+7	+19	1.2
2028	24	MLB	LAA	65%	648	589	142	27	2	22	49	163	5	14	5	241	305	406	711	165	296	25	8	317	101	+1	+1	-12	+7	+18	1.5
2029	25	MLB	LAA	65%	648	588	143	27	2	23	50	161	5	14	5	243	308	413	721	170	296	25	8	320	103	+2	+1	-12	+7	+18	1.7
2030	26	MLB	LAA	65%	648	588	143	27	2	23	50	161	5	14	5	243	308	413	721	170	296	25	8	321	104	+3	+1	-12	+7	+18	1.7
2031	27	MLB	LAA	65%	643	582	142	27	2	23	51	160	5	14	5	244	310	416	726	172	296	25	8	321	104	+3	+1	-12	+7	+18	1.7
2032	28	MLB	LAA	65%	635	574	140	27	2	22	51	159	5	13	5	244	311	413	724	169	295	25	8	321	103	+3	+1	-13	+7	+18	1.6
2033	29	MLB	LAA	65%	623	563	137	26	2	22	50	157	5	12	5	243	311	414	725	171	295	25	8	319	102	+2	+0	-13	+7	+18	1.3
2034	30	MLB	LAA	65%	611	553	133	25	2	21	49	156	4	10	4	241	307	407	714	166	294	26	8	316	100	+0	+0	-14	+7	+17	1.1
2035	31	MLB	LAA	65%	596	539	128	24	2	20	48	154	4	9	3	237	305	401	705	163	292	26	8	312	97	-2	+1	-14	+6	+17	0.8
2036	32	MLB	LAA	65%	577	522	123	23	2	19	46	151	4	7	3	236	302	397	699	161	289	26	8	307	93	-5	+0	-14	+6	+16	0.4
2037	33	MLB	LAA	65%	547	495	114	21	2	17	43	146	4	5	2	230	297	384	681	154	285	27	8	300	88	-8	+0	-14	+6	+15	-0.0
2038	34	MLB	LAA	60%	499	454	99	17	1	15	39	136	3	3	1	218	284	359	643	141	279	27	8	291	81	-11	+0	-14	+5	+14	-0.5
2027	23	MLB	LAA	65%	429	392	94	18	2	14	31	111	3	9	4	240	300	403	704	163	294	26	7	306	92	-4	+0	-8	+5	+12	0.5
2028	24	MLB	LAA	65%	421	383	93	18	2	14	32	106	3	9	3	243	306	410	716	167	295	25	8	310	95	-2	+1	-8	+5	+12	0.7
2029	25	MLB	LAA	65%	421	383	94	18	2	15	32	105	3	9	3	245	309	420	729	175	295	25	8	313	97	-1	+1	-8	+5	+12	0.8
2030	26	MLB	LAA	65%	421	382	94	18	2	15	33	105	3	9	3	246	311	421	732	175	295	25	8	314	98	-1	+1	-8	+5	+12	0.8
2031	27	MLB	LAA	65%	418	379	93	17	2	15	33	104	3	9	3	245	311	420	730	174	294	25	8	314	98	-1	+1	-8	+4	+12	0.8
2032	28	MLB	LAA	65%	413	374	90	17	1	14	33	103	3	8	3	241	307	404	711	163	294	25	8	313	98	-1	+0	-8	+4	+12	0.7
2033	29	MLB	LAA	65%	405	367	88	17	1	14	32	102	3	8	3	240	306	406	712	166	294	25	8	311	96	-2	+0	-9	+4	+11	0.6
2034	30	MLB	LAA	65%	397	359	85	16	1	13	32	101	3	7	3	237	305	396	700	159	293	25	8	309	95	-2	+0	-9	+4	+11	0.5
2035	31	MLB	LAA	65%	387	350	82	15	1	13	31	100	3	6	2	234	302	394	696	160	291	26	8	305	92	-4	+0	-9	+4	+11	0.3
2036	32	MLB	LAA	65%	375	339	79	15	1	12	30	98	3	5	2	233	301	389	690	156	288	26	8	300	88	-5	+0	-9	+4	+11	0.0
2037	33	MLB	LAA	65%	356	323	73	13	1	11	28	95	2	3	1	226	292	375	666	149	284	27	8	293	83	-7	+0	-9	+4	+10	-0.2
2038	34	MLB	LAA	60%	302	273	60	10	1	9	24	83	2	2	1	220	288	363	650	143	278	27	8	285	76	-8	+0	-9	+3	+9	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	5043	4579	1088	203	18	169	390	1301	36	90	33	238	302	401	703	163	293	26	8	306	92	-43	+5	-110	+60	+143	5.6
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	140	26	2	22	50	168	5	12	4	237	302	400	702	163	293	26	8	306	92	-6	+1	-14	+8	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	9524	8648	1963	377	33	291	728	2607	71	183	73	227	292	379	672	152	288	27	8	298	86	-150	+7	-166	+102	+270	6.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	134	26	2	20	50	178	5	12	5	227	293	380	673	153	289	27	8	298	86	-10	+0	-11	+7	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	164	141	30	10	1	3	20	24	1	11	7	213	315	362	677	149	233	15	12	304	91	-2	-1	—	—	+5	0.2
2022	18	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	23	17	3	0	0	0	6	10	0	1	0	176	391	176	568		429	43	26	300	88	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.1
2022	18	ROK	ACL Angels	—	211	192	55	11	3	3	15	44	2	3	1	286	344	422	766	135	354	21	7	339	118	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.1
2023	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	472	426	102	21	7	7	42	131	2	8	4	239	311	371	682	131	328	28	9	306	92	-4	+0	—	—	+13	0.9
2024	20	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	342	296	61	9	1	6	36	90	3	7	6	206	298	304	602	98	272	26	11	274	68	-12	-1	—	—	+10	-0.4
2024	20	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	84	79	23	3	1	0	4	28	0	3	1	291	325	354	680	63	451	33	5	303	90	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2024	20	INTL	Toros del Este	—	25	25	5	1	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	200	200	240	440	40	312	36	0	196	8	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	21	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	43	42	8	1	0	2	1	22	0	0	0	190	209	357	566	167	333	51	2	248	48	-3	+0	-4	+7	+1	0.2
2025	21	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	153	130	34	7	0	6	21	45	1	6	0	262	368	454	822	192	350	29	14	365	138	+6	+1	—	—	+4	1.2
2025	21	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	386	335	81	23	1	11	41	92	7	8	3	242	337	415	752	173	298	24	11	335	115	+6	+0	—	—	+11	1.8
2025	21	INTL	Toros del Este	—	31	26	3	1	0	1	5	10	0	1	1	115	258	269	527	154	133	32	16	250	50	-2	-0	—	—	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	43	42	8	1	0	2	1	22	0	0	0	190	209	357	566	167	333	51	2	248	48	-3	+0	-4	+7	+1	0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Didi Gregoriuslast yr '22 career totals — 10 seasons, 4,238 PA	10	4,238	134	37	256	308	421	+45	-10	17.0	17.2
	/162	664	21	6	256	308	421	+7.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 18
#2Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	9	3,621	123	62	249	308	437	+22	+7	15.9	16.6
#2Bill Halllast yr '11 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,621 PA	/162	664	23	11	249	308	437	+4.1	+1.3	2.9	pk7: 17
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	5,140	174	90	239	301	404	+53	-36	18.5	15.5
	/162	664	22	12	239	301	404	+6.8	-4.7	2.4	pk7: 13
#4Jarrod Saltalamacchialast yr '16 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,127 PA	9	3,127	110	5	235	308	414	+56	-10	14.1	14.8
	/162	664	23	1	235	308	414	+11.9	-2.1	3.0	pk7: 16
#5Welington Castillolast yr '19 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,667 PA	8	2,667	97	5	254	313	425	+48	-14	13.3	13.2
	/162	664	24	1	254	313	425	+11.9	-3.4	3.3	pk7: 13
#6Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	7	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
	/162	664	22	3	243	306	411	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Denzer Guzman (OGILVIE)	22	24→37	41→50	57→50	60	255/311/419	163	313	21	16	25%	7%	102	+2.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Logan O'Hoppe 2022 · AAA	22	43→48	48→60	46→45	43	221/271/354	133	264	16	7	24%	6%	72	-0.2	237/307/416	179	278	24	6	24%	8%	104	+2.0	240/313/432	192	282	27	4	25%	8%	109	+1.6
●Jo Adell 2021 · MLB	22	42→44	49→65	49→50	37	211/264/356	146	309	17	9	36%	6%	70	-0.3	224/274/426	202	308	26	10	35%	5%	93	+1.3	218/285/448	231	251	34	12	29%	7%	102	+1.5
●Connor Norby 2023 · AAA	23	45→49	51→55	50	44	232/297/394	162	296	20	12	28%	7%	93	+1.3	242/301/407	165	320	20	11	29%	7%	98	+1.6	245/305/413	168	324	20	11	29%	7%	99	+1.5
●Bo Naylor 2023 · AAA	23	40→44	52→55	54→50	48	206/295/372	166	284	19	16	33%	10%	88	+0.9	216/301/395	179	269	22	10	27%	10%	96	+1.5	207/293/388	181	246	23	6	26%	10%	89	+0.7
✕Aaron Luna 2010 · AA	23	40→44	50	49→45	46	206/312/366	161	263	17	8	27%	8%	95	+1.4	225/323/372	147	282	16	8	25%	8%	100	+1.7	223/327/369	146	277	17	6	24%	9%	98	+1.0
●Nolan Gorman 2022 · AAA	22	41→43	52→60	49→45	37	220/262/376	156	288	21	6	32%	5%	74	-0.1	223/287/423	200	298	29	7	34%	8%	98	+1.6	213/287/426	213	282	31	7	35%	9%	96	+1.2
✕Carter Kieboom 2020 · MLB	22	47→50	48→50	46→45	46	236/306/377	141	309	16	6	28%	8%	93	+1.3	223/313/340	117	291	13	5	26%	10%	87	+0.8	205/303/309	105	264	14	2	26%	10%	71	-0.1
●Sean Rodríguez 2007 · AA	22	46→49	52→60	48→50	46	235/306/406	171	300	20	12	28%	8%	101	+1.8	230/301/408	178	293	21	10	28%	7%	99	+1.7	237/310/439	202	292	25	12	27%	7%	107	+1.7
✕Rodolfo Castro 2023 · MLB	24	40	53→55	47→50	41	215/272/390	175	275	22	10	30%	6%	82	+0.5	211/275/356	145	278	18	9	30%	7%	75	-0.0	201/269/340	139	259	18	12	29%	7%	66	-0.5
✕Max Stassi 2014 · AA	23	43	52→55	44→40	39	226/276/388	162	283	20	4	28%	5%	83	+0.6	205/250/323	118	284	13	3	32%	5%	55	-1.4	218/304/386	168	282	22	0	30%	10%	93	+0.6
✕Brennen Davis 2022 · AAA	22	44→41	52→50	46→45	41	222/298/390	168	318	20	9	35%	7%	94	+1.3	188/273/313	125	267	15	9	34%	7%	64	-0.8	185/285/365	180	232	25	4	31%	8%	81	+0.2
●Iván Herrera 2023 · MLB	23	42→52	46→50	46→50	47	212/287/335	123	272	15	7	27%	9%	74	-0.1	258/346/406	148	325	16	12	24%	10%	117	+2.9	276/369/436	160	338	18	13	22%	11%	130	+2.7
✕Joey Bart 2020 · AA	23	43	54→55	45→40	38	228/271/405	177	288	23	7	30%	5%	85	+0.7	236/291/384	148	336	17	5	33%	6%	89	+0.9	253/338/392	139	338	17	1	28%	9%	109	+1.1
✕Michael Chavis 2018 · AA	22	39→46	53→60	47→45	36	212/257/384	172	278	22	4	32%	4%	75	-0.0	230/286/409	179	310	24	6	33%	6%	93	+1.3	230/291/409	179	312	25	5	33%	7%	92	+0.5
✕Donnie Murphy 2006 · MLB	23	46→40	50→65	43→45	44	235/284/388	153	271	17	6	21%	6%	86	+0.8	225/273/386	161	276	18	7	25%	5%	82	+0.5	225/289/444	220	260	27	2	25%	7%	99	+0.7
●Jeremiah Jackson 2023 · AA	23	37→47	48→60	48→55	41	195/256/339	145	267	16	12	33%	7%	63	-0.9	222/268/400	178	287	24	15	31%	5%	83	+0.6	235/274/422	187	292	26	15	29%	5%	88	+0.8
●Miguel Vargas 2023 · MLB	23	48→53	51→55	51→50	47	245/302/410	166	280	19	13	21%	7%	100	+1.7	221/308/380	159	262	17	11	22%	10%	95	+1.4	221/322/407	185	244	21	11	19%	12%	106	+1.7
✕Yu Chang 2018 · AA	22	36→46	50	49→45	38	193/249/349	157	265	18	9	34%	6%	63	-0.9	212/270/345	133	295	14	7	31%	6%	69	-0.4	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
●Dylan Carlson 2021 · MLB	22	44→54	51→55	49→50	45	226/289/389	163	284	18	12	27%	7%	89	+0.9	244/322/398	154	303	15	6	23%	9%	105	+2.1	244/329/393	150	298	14	4	22%	9%	103	+1.5
✕Rylan Bannon 2019 · AA	23	41→42	50	45→50	45	210/286/364	154	289	19	5	33%	9%	82	+0.5	202/269/339	137	259	15	8	27%	8%	68	-0.5	197/295/350	153	257	19	12	30%	11%	80	+0.3