Denzer Guzman

SS Los Angeles Angels

Age 23 R/R 6'1" / 190 lbs MLB K +5%HR +4% Svc 0.741 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	20	AA/A+/INTL2 orgs	451	.222/.297/.310	6	10	40	—	.191/.255/.267
2025	21	AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs	570	.240/.341/.418	18	15	74	—	.207/.286/.351
2025	21	MLBLAA	43	.190/.209/.357	2	0	54	0.1
2026	22	AAALAA	268	.336/.406/.571	12	9	125	—	.298/.353/.482
2026	22	MLBLAA	304	.219/.265/.336	8	2	68	0.1
2027PROJ	23	MLBLAA	326	.229/.287/.369	10	6	84	0.2
2028PROJ82% MLB	24	MLBLAA	477	.231/.290/.375	15	9	86	0.4
2029PROJ82% MLB	25	MLBLAA	493	.231/.291/.377	16	9	87	0.5

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.3 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.741First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$2M2031Arb-2$4M2032Arb-3$5M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026

Bat Spd58

Speed52

Barrel%34

Avg EV18

xwOBA10

Form.228/.281/.351 ▼ rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .229/.286/.369

CompsRodolfo Castro (age 24) · Jeter Downs (age 23) · Corey Joyce (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.229 / .287 / .369

PA326

HR10

SB6

K%24

BB%7

BABIP274

ISO141

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT

xAVG

100.218

POWER

Barrel%

346.1

Avg EV

1886.7

Bat Spd

5872.1

SPEED

Sprint

5227.6

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%24%·24% over 85 PA (60d) · proj 24%

BB%7%·6% over 85 PA (60d) · proj 7%

ISO.123▼.089 over 79 AB (60d) · proj .140

HR/BB4.1%·3.4% over 59 BBE (60d) · proj 4.5%

BABIP.275·.263 over 57 BIP (60d) · proj .276

SLASH.228/.281/.351▼proj .229/.286/.369

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.741 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.8M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.8M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2030	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-2	$4M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$5M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$8M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	17	ROK	DSL Angels	—	164	141	30	10	1	3	20	24	1	11	7	213	315	362	677	149	233	15	12	304	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	23	17	3	0	0	0	6	10	0	1	0	176	391	176	568		429	43	26	300	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK	ACL Angels	—	211	192	55	11	3	3	15	44	2	3	1	286	344	422	766	135	354	21	7	339	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A	Inland Empire 66ers	—	472	426	102	21	7	7	42	131	2	8	4	239	311	371	682	131	328	28	9	306	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	342	296	61	9	1	6	36	90	3	7	6	206	298	304	602	98	272	26	11	274	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	84	79	23	3	1	0	4	28	0	3	1	291	325	354	680	63	451	33	5	303	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	INTL	Toros del Este	—	25	25	5	1	0	0	0	9	0	0	0	200	200	240	440	40	312	36	0	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	43	42	8	1	0	2	1	22	0	0	0	190	209	357	566	167	333	51	2	248	54	-2	+0	-4	+7	+1	0.1
2025	21	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	153	130	34	7	0	6	21	45	1	6	0	262	368	454	822	192	350	29	14	365	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	386	335	81	23	1	11	41	92	7	8	3	242	337	415	752	173	298	24	11	335	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	INTL	Toros del Este	—	31	26	3	1	0	1	5	10	0	1	1	115	258	269	527	154	133	32	16	250	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB	Los Angeles Angels	—	304	283	62	9	0	8	17	78	1	2	1	219	265	336	601	117	274	26	6	268	68	-12	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.1
2026	22	AAA	Salt Lake Bees	—	268	238	80	16	2	12	27	48	1	9	4	336	406	571	977	235	378	18	10	424	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	347	325	70	10	0	10	18	100	1	2	1	215	258	338	596	123	279	29	5	266	66	-14	+0	-4	+13	+8	0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	164	147	20	6	1	2	14	29	1	11	7	136	216	231	447	95	147	18	9	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	23	19	2	0	0	0	4	14	0	1	0	105	261	105	366		395	61	17	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	ACL Angels	—	211	197	39	7	2	2	10	63	2	3	1	198	244	284	528	86	266	30	5	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	472	437	81	16	5	6	31	178	2	8	4	185	243	286	529	101	293	38	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	342	306	55	8	1	5	27	113	3	7	6	180	253	261	514	82	251	33	8	227	40	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	A+ MLE	Tri-City Dust Devils	—	84	80	19	2	1	0	3	37	0	3	1	237	265	287	553	50	433	44	4	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	43	42	8	1	0	2	1	22	0	0	0	190	209	357	566	167	333	51	2	247	54	-2	+0	-4	+7	+1	0.1
2025	21	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	153	135	28	6	0	4	16	55	1	6	0	207	296	341	637	133	309	36	10	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	Rocket City Trash Pandas	—	386	347	72	22	1	9	29	111	7	8	3	207	282	354	636	147	268	29	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	—	304	284	62	9	0	8	17	78	1	2	1	218	265	335	599	116	274	26	6	269	68	-12	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.1
2026	22	AAA MLE	Salt Lake Bees	—	268	245	73	14	2	9	20	58	1	9	4	298	353	482	835	184	345	22	7	353	125	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	164	147	20	6	1	2	14	29	1	11	7	136	216	231	447	95	153	18	9	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	—	164	141	30	10	1	3	20	24	1	11	7	213	315	362	677	149	233	15	12	304	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	234	216	41	7	2	2	14	76	2	4	1	190	246	269	514	79	279	32	6	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	234	209	58	11	3	3	21	54	2	4	1	278	349	402	751	124	357	23	9	335	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	472	437	81	16	5	6	31	178	2	8	4	185	243	286	529	101	294	38	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A RAW	Inland Empire 66ers	—	472	426	102	21	7	7	42	131	2	8	4	239	311	371	682	131	328	28	9	306	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	451	410	78	11	2	5	31	159	3	10	7	190	252	263	516	73	294	35	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AA RAW	3 teams	—	451	400	89	13	2	6	40	127	3	10	7	223	297	310	607	87	309	28	9	275	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	4 teams	—	613	553	114	30	1	16	48	198	8	15	4	206	279	351	630	145	286	32	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA RAW	4 teams	—	613	533	126	32	1	20	68	169	8	15	4	236	332	413	744	176	305	28	11	332	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	572	529	135	23	2	17	37	136	2	11	5	255	306	403	709	147	312	24	6	308	95	-4	+0	+0	+6	+12	1.5
2026	22	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	572	521	142	25	2	20	44	126	2	11	5	273	331	443	774	171	324	22	8	341	95	-4	+0	+0	+6	+12	1.5
2021	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	—	164	148	20	6	1	2	14	29	1	11	7	135	216	230	446	95	147	18	9	196	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	18	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	234	216	41	7	2	2	14	76	2	4	1	190	246	269	514	79	279	32	6	228	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	19	A MLE	Inland Empire 66ers	—	472	436	81	16	5	6	31	178	2	8	4	186	243	287	529	101	293	38	7	234	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	451	414	78	11	2	5	31	159	3	10	7	188	252	261	513	72	287	35	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	4 teams	—	613	552	114	30	1	16	48	198	8	15	4	207	279	351	631	145	284	32	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	572	528	135	23	2	17	37	136	2	11	5	256	306	403	710	148	307	24	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	20	AA MLE	3 teams	—	451	414	78	11	2	5	31	159	3	10	7	188	252	261	513	72	287	35	7	229	41	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	21	AA MLE	4 teams	—	613	552	114	30	1	16	48	198	8	15	4	207	279	351	631	145	284	32	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	22	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	572	528	135	23	2	17	37	136	2	11	5	256	306	403	710	148	307	24	6	308	95	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	23	MLB MLE	LAA	100%	623	571	131	19	2	19	43	150	4	11	3	229	288	370	658	140	276	24	7	293	84	-12	+1	-6	+7	+13	0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	23	MLB CTX	LAA	100%	326	298	69	10	1	10	23	79	2	6	1	229	287	369	657	141	274	24	7	293	84	-6	+1	-3	+3	+7	0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	LAA	82%	582	532	123	18	2	18	41	139	4	10	3	231	290	375	665	143	276	24	7	296	86	-9	+1	-5	+6	+13	0.5
2029	25	MLB MLE	LAA	82%	601	549	127	18	2	19	43	143	4	11	3	232	292	377	668	145	276	24	7	297	87	-9	+1	-6	+6	+13	0.6
2030	26	MLB MLE	LAA	82%	601	549	127	18	2	19	43	143	4	10	3	232	292	377	668	145	276	24	7	297	87	-9	+1	-6	+6	+13	0.6
2031	27	MLB MLE	LAA	82%	592	542	125	18	2	19	42	142	3	10	3	231	291	374	665	143	276	24	7	296	86	-10	+1	-5	+6	+13	0.5
2032	28	MLB MLE	LAA	82%	578	529	121	17	2	18	41	140	3	7	2	229	289	370	659	141	275	24	7	293	85	-11	+1	-6	+6	+13	0.3
2033	29	MLB MLE	LAA	82%	560	512	116	17	1	17	40	137	3	5	2	227	286	364	650	137	274	24	7	290	82	-12	+0	-7	+6	+12	0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	LAA	82%	545	499	112	16	1	16	38	135	3	3	1	224	283	357	639	132	272	25	7	285	79	-13	+0	-7	+6	+12	-0.3
2035	31	MLB MLE	LAA	82%	526	483	107	15	1	15	36	133	2	3	1	220	278	347	625	127	270	25	7	280	75	-15	+0	-8	+6	+11	-0.6
2028	24	MLB CTX	LAA	82%	477	437	100	14	1	15	34	114	3	9	2	231	290	375	665	144	275	24	7	296	86	-8	+1	-4	+5	+10	0.4
2029	25	MLB CTX	LAA	82%	493	452	105	15	2	16	35	118	3	9	2	231	291	377	668	146	275	24	7	297	87	-7	+1	-5	+5	+11	0.5
2030	26	MLB CTX	LAA	82%	493	452	105	15	2	16	35	118	3	8	2	231	291	377	668	146	274	24	7	297	87	-7	+1	-5	+5	+11	0.5
2031	27	MLB CTX	LAA	82%	485	444	102	14	1	16	35	116	3	8	2	230	290	374	664	144	274	24	7	296	86	-8	+1	-4	+5	+11	0.4
2032	28	MLB CTX	LAA	82%	474	434	99	14	1	15	34	115	3	6	2	228	288	370	658	141	273	24	7	293	85	-9	+0	-5	+5	+10	0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	LAA	82%	459	421	95	13	1	14	33	112	2	4	1	226	285	364	649	138	272	24	7	290	82	-10	+0	-5	+5	+10	0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	LAA	82%	447	411	92	13	1	13	31	111	2	3	1	223	282	356	639	133	271	25	7	285	79	-11	+0	-6	+5	+10	-0.2
2035	31	MLB CTX	LAA	82%	431	396	87	12	1	12	30	109	2	2	1	220	277	347	625	128	268	25	7	279	75	-13	+0	-6	+5	+9	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4106	3772	855	120	10	127	285	1013	22	51	14	227	285	365	650	138	275	25	7	290	76	-86	+5	-44	+53	+89	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	597	136	19	2	20	45	160	3	8	2	228	285	367	652	139	276	25	7	290	76	-14	+1	-7	+8	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	7417	6785	1496	240	27	199	522	1967	46	124	47	220	281	352	633	131	278	27	7	280	76	-108	+5	-56	+65	+114	2.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	130	21	2	17	46	172	4	11	4	218	280	346	626	128	276	26	7	280	76	-13	+1	-7	+8	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASalt Lake Bees · 268 PAwOBA .415 → .353 (−63)K% 17.9% → 21.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	17.91%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	21.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.07%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.30%
HBP% /PA	0.37%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.37%
Singles /BIP	26.32%	÷1.000	×0.930	×0.976	×1.050	25.07%
Doubles /BIP	8.42%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.976	×1.050	7.16%
Triples /BIP	1.05%	÷1.000	×0.970	×0.976	×1.050	1.05%
Home runs /BIP	6.32%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.050	4.64%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (5.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.976.

Result: wOBA .415 → .353; ISO .235 → .185; BABIP .378 → .345. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 386 PAwOBA .329 → .277 (−52)K% 23.8% → 28.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.83%	÷1.011	×1.220	—	—	28.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.62%	÷1.020	×0.680	—	×1.050	7.44%
HBP% /PA	1.81%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	1.60%
Singles /BIP	18.93%	÷1.048	×0.920	×0.950	×1.050	16.57%
Doubles /BIP	9.47%	÷0.929	×0.910	×0.950	×1.050	9.25%
Triples /BIP	0.41%	÷1.028	×0.880	×0.950	×1.050	0.35%
Home runs /BIP	4.53%	÷1.028	×0.800	—	×1.050	3.70%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 110, 2B 86, 3B 106, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .329 → .277; ISO .173 → .151; BABIP .298 → .268. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAASalt Lake Bees · 153 PAwOBA .358 → .285 (−73)K% 29.4% → 36.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.41%	÷0.978	×1.200	—	—	36.09%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.73%	÷0.964	×0.690	—	×1.050	10.32%
HBP% /PA	0.65%	—	×0.940	—	×1.050	0.65%
Singles /BIP	24.71%	÷1.046	×0.930	×0.982	×1.050	22.66%
Doubles /BIP	8.24%	÷1.005	×0.830	×0.982	×1.050	7.01%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.079	×0.970	×0.982	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	7.06%	÷0.989	×0.700	—	×1.050	5.24%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 98, 1B 109, 2B 101, 3B 116, K 96, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (6.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.

Result: wOBA .358 → .285; ISO .192 → .142; BABIP .350 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 342 PAwOBA .269 → .227 (−42)K% 26.3% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.32%	÷0.974	×1.220	—	—	32.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.966	×0.680	—	×1.050	7.78%
HBP% /PA	0.88%	—	×0.840	—	×1.050	0.77%
Singles /BIP	21.84%	÷1.016	×0.920	×0.986	×1.050	20.48%
Doubles /BIP	4.37%	÷1.072	×0.910	×0.986	×1.050	3.84%
Triples /BIP	0.49%	÷1.045	×0.880	×0.986	×1.050	0.42%
Home runs /BIP	2.91%	÷0.976	×0.800	—	×1.050	2.51%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 109, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.986.

Result: wOBA .269 → .227; ISO .098 → .082; BABIP .272 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 84 PAwOBA .295 → .239 (−56)K% 33.3% → 44.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷1.018	×1.350	—	—	44.19%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.76%	÷1.018	×0.710	—	×1.042	3.46%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.810	—	×1.042	0.00%
Singles /BIP	37.25%	÷0.969	×0.910	—	×1.042	36.47%
Doubles /BIP	5.88%	÷0.950	×0.830	—	×1.042	5.35%
Triples /BIP	1.96%	÷1.150	×0.820	—	×1.042	1.46%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.916	×0.830	—	×1.042	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 94, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 104, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .295 → .239; ISO .063 → .046; BABIP .451 → .433. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AInland Empire 66ers · 472 PAwOBA .299 → .234 (−65)K% 27.8% → 37.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.75%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	37.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	8.90%	÷0.970	×0.690	—	×1.045	6.61%
HBP% /PA	0.42%	—	×0.780	—	×1.045	0.35%
Singles /BIP	22.71%	÷1.026	×0.920	×0.978	×1.045	20.80%
Doubles /BIP	7.12%	÷1.016	×0.830	×0.978	×1.045	5.94%
Triples /BIP	2.37%	÷1.049	×0.910	×0.978	×1.045	2.10%
Home runs /BIP	2.37%	÷0.897	×0.800	—	×1.045	2.21%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 105, 2B 103, 3B 110, K 100, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 22.0 → +4.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.

Result: wOBA .299 → .234; ISO .131 → .103; BABIP .328 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 ROKACL Angels · 211 PAwOBA .333 → .231 (−102)K% 20.9% → 29.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.85%	÷1.011	×1.440	—	—	29.70%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.11%	÷0.964	×0.620	—	×1.022	4.67%
HBP% /PA	0.95%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	0.70%
Singles /BIP	25.68%	÷1.015	×0.820	×0.950	×1.022	20.15%
Doubles /BIP	7.43%	÷1.044	×0.720	×0.950	×1.022	4.98%
Triples /BIP	2.03%	÷1.033	×0.720	×0.950	×1.022	1.37%
Home runs /BIP	2.03%	÷0.943	×0.780	—	×1.022	1.71%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 89, 1B 103, 2B 109, 3B 107, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .333 → .231; ISO .135 → .092; BABIP .354 → .266. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AInland Empire 66ers · 23 PAwOBA .277 → .203 (−74)K% 43.5% → 59.7%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	43.48%	÷0.991	×1.360	—	—	59.67%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	21.74%	÷0.995	×0.690	—	×1.050	15.83%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	0.00%
Singles /BIP	42.86%	÷1.049	×0.920	—	×1.050	39.46%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.023	×0.830	—	×1.050	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.006	×0.910	—	×1.050	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.889	×0.800	—	×1.050	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 101, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .277 → .203; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .429 → .395. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Alex Gonzalez'98-'14 * career totals — 15 seasons, 6,248 PA	9.4	6,248	157	30	237*	281*	387*	+64	-10	8.4	10.3
/162	664	17	3	+6.8	-1.0	0.9	pk7: 12
#2Alex Gonzalez'94-'06 * career totals — 12 seasons, 5,528 PA	8.3	5,528	137	97	232*	290*	379*	+55	+6	8.3	10.0
/162	664	16	12	+6.6	+0.8	1.0	pk7: 12
#3Trevor Plouffelast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,178 PA	4.8	3,178	103	12	243	306	411	+14	-18	8.4	8.4
/162	664	22	3	+2.8	-3.8	1.8	pk7: 8
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	6.6	4,390	133	57	229	284	367	+47	-33	8.3	7.9
/162	664	20	9	+7.1	-4.9	1.2	pk7: 8
#4Yuniesky Betancourtlast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,278 PA	6.4	4,278	80	30	261	285	388	+41	-20	6.1	7.2
/162	664	12	5	+6.4	-3.1	0.9	pk7: 8
#5Tim Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,743 PA	2.6	1,743	63	13	248	301	431	+19	-13	6.1	6.1
/162	664	24	5	+7.1	-4.8	2.3	pk7: 6
#6Andujar Cedeno'90-'96 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,233 PA	3.4	2,233	47	26	228*	284*	371*	+24	-20	1.3	1.3
/162	664	14	8	+7.1	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Denzer Guzman (OGILVIE)	23	—	—	—	—	228/286/366	139	276	10	6	24%	7%	84	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rodolfo Castro 2023 · MLB	24	42	53→55	47→50	42	221/281/392	171	284	21	10	30%	7%	88	+0.4	212/278/350	138	282	17	9	30%	7%	78	-0.3	198/268/323	125	260	15	12	29%	7%	67	-0.8
✕Jeter Downs 2021 · AA	23	43→41	51→50	52→55	45	223/290/390	167	279	19	17	27%	8%	91	+0.7	180/256/301	121	262	15	21	35%	8%	59	-1.7	176/270/315	139	246	15	26	33%	9%	66	-0.6
✕Corey Joyce 2023 · AAA	24	44	46→40	49→50	49	214/312/344	129	290	14	11	29%	10%	89	+0.5	212/309/310	98	304	8	14	30%	10%	80	-0.1	207/293/299	92	288	9	15	29%	9%	68	-0.6
✕Javier Valdes 2023 · AA	24	43	48→55	50→30	46	219/300/358	139	268	17	5	25%	7%	88	+0.5	217/301/360	143	265	16	5	24%	8%	88	+0.5	207/318/364	157	258	17	2	25%	11%	94	+0.4
✕Jake Rogers 2019 · AA	24	38→40	47→60	48→45	42	198/263/331	133	270	14	9	32%	7%	68	-1.0	210/285/377	167	290	20	5	33%	8%	86	+0.3	210/288/419	208	272	29	1	33%	8%	97	+0.6
✕Yu Chang 2019 · AAA	23	42→47	48→50	47→45	40	213/274/359	146	297	15	7	33%	6%	78	-0.3	224/280/371	147	302	16	7	30%	7%	83	+0.1	217/278/367	150	284	17	4	29%	7%	81	-0.0
✕Eddys Leonard 2024 · AAA	23	46→47	48→50	43→50	42	229/293/371	141	294	15	5	27%	6%	88	+0.4	218/274/363	145	273	17	10	26%	5%	79	-0.2	210/266/358	149	254	18	11	25%	5%	72	-0.5
✕Jeremiah Jackson 2023 · AA	23	38→48	49→55	48→55	42	201/265/351	150	272	17	12	32%	7%	73	-0.6	221/268/376	155	290	20	15	30%	6%	80	-0.2	231/272/390	159	293	20	15	28%	5%	82	+0.0
✕Zack Short 2019 · AA	24	40→39	47→50	47→45	51	202/293/345	143	270	14	9	29%	11%	82	+0.0	198/291/335	137	280	14	7	32%	10%	79	-0.2	177/277/302	125	240	14	9	31%	11%	66	-0.8
✕Damiano Palmegiani 2024 · AAA	24	40→42	52→50	52→40	44	210/289/381	170	282	20	6	32%	8%	89	+0.5	191/274/317	126	274	14	4	34%	8%	70	-0.9	163/254/270	107	234	13	1	34%	8%	49	-1.5
✕Tim Tawa 2023 · AA	24	43→45	45→55	49→50	47	215/282/334	119	268	14	12	25%	8%	75	-0.5	214/278/349	135	274	16	11	27%	8%	77	-0.3	223/286/391	168	267	21	13	25%	7%	88	+0.3
✕Brennen Davis 2023 · AAA	23	41→43	47→50	43→45	42	204/289/341	137	303	15	7	36%	8%	80	-0.1	191/280/318	127	261	15	9	32%	7%	72	-0.7	188/287/362	173	236	23	4	30%	8%	83	+0.0
✕Tyler Marlette 2016 · AA	23	47→43	47→50	47→45	41	236/278/372	136	297	14	7	26%	5%	82	-0.0	221/267/353	132	289	15	5	28%	6%	74	-0.6	214/264/341	127	279	15	4	28%	6%	66	-0.8
✕Chad Hermansen 2001 · MLB	23	43→42	46→55	49→50	42	216/269/347	131	288	14	7	30%	7%	72	-0.7	214/270/362	148	286	17	10	30%	7%	77	-0.3	204/264/329	125	286	14	14	32%	7%	66	-0.7
✕Miguel Amaya 2022 · AA	23	44→43	44→50	50→40	51	216/311/333	117	280	11	7	25%	10%	86	+0.3	226/312/365	139	299	15	5	28%	9%	94	+0.9	230/302/374	144	273	16	1	22%	7%	92	+0.3
✕Andrew Navigato 2023 · AA	25	42→41	48→55	49→50	43	216/280/356	141	266	16	14	26%	6%	80	-0.2	218/276/377	159	279	17	15	28%	6%	83	+0.1	207/267/370	164	270	18	17	30%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Aaron Luna 2010 · AA	23	41→46	50	49→45	46	207/315/368	161	265	17	8	27%	8%	97	+1.1	228/330/374	146	284	16	8	24%	9%	103	+1.6	228/337/371	143	283	17	6	24%	9%	103	+1.0
✕Agustín Ramírez 2024 · AA	22	44→48	48→55	48→55	47	226/286/366	140	275	16	10	24%	8%	84	+0.1	237/299/402	165	282	19	17	22%	7%	97	+1.1	236/301/405	169	279	19	20	22%	7%	97	+1.1
✕Jesús Bastidas 2022 · AA	23	46→42	49→50	48→50	44	227/307/370	143	315	17	13	32%	8%	93	+0.8	211/280/350	139	280	17	12	30%	6%	78	-0.3	200/272/341	140	260	17	12	29%	6%	71	-0.6
✕Jacob Amaya 2023 · AAA	24	44→47	46→45	49→45	49	219/291/343	123	276	14	6	25%	9%	80	-0.1	215/282/323	108	282	11	8	26%	8%	72	-0.7	203/270/297	94	269	9	8	27%	8%	60	-1.1

Denzer Guzman

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps