Teilon Serrano

OF FCL Twins

Age 19 L/R 5'11" / 200 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1566ETA2029MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKMIN	189	.258/.388/.426	5	21	45	—	.160/.271/.252
2026	18	ROKMIN	194	.211/.450/.398	3	14	68	—	.145/.319/.263
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBMIN	4	.194/.285/.303	0	0	69	-0.0
2028PROJ36% MLB	20	MLBMIN	55	.202/.293/.325	1	1	76	-0.1
2029PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBMIN	127	.208/.298/.343	3	3	82	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%97

wRC+84

ISO80

wOBA75

Speed65

Chase%42

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 3.3, comp-based) · star 3% · didn't stick 89%

CompsCarlos Jimenez (age 19) · Max Clark (age 19) · Akil Baddoo (age 20)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†69

AVG/OBP/SLG.194 / .285 / .303

PA4

HR0

K%25

BB%10

BABIP277

ISO122

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$4M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Twins	—	189	155	40	7	2	5	28	48	5	21	5	258	388	426	814	168	340	25	15	367	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	FCL Twins	—	194	133	28	8	4	3	53	60	5	14	5	211	450	398	849	188	347	31	27	389	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	189	163	26	4	1	3	20	59	5	21	5	160	271	252	523	92	222	31	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	194	152	22	6	3	2	34	86	5	14	5	145	319	263	583	118	276	44	18	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	189	163	26	4	1	3	20	59	5	21	5	160	271	252	523	92	225	31	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	—	189	155	40	7	2	5	28	48	5	21	5	258	388	426	814	168	340	25	15	367	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	194	152	22	6	3	2	34	86	5	14	5	145	319	263	583	118	303	44	18	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Twins	—	194	133	28	8	4	3	53	60	5	14	5	211	450	398	849	188	347	31	27	389	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	189	162	26	4	1	3	20	59	5	21	5	160	271	253	524	93	222	31	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	194	153	22	6	3	2	34	86	5	14	5	144	319	261	581	118	276	44	18	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	—	189	162	26	4	1	3	20	59	5	21	5	160	271	253	524	93	222	31	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Twins	—	194	153	22	6	3	2	34	86	5	14	5	144	319	261	581	118	276	44	18	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	MIN	4%	304	267	52	9	3	5	30	95	4	7	1	194	285	303	588	108	277	31	10	270	69	-11	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	19	MLB CTX	MIN	4%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	194	285	303	588	108	277	25	0	270	69	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	MIN	36%	152	134	27	5	1	3	15	46	2	4	1	202	293	324	617	123	280	30	10	281	76	-4	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	MIN	49%	258	226	47	8	2	6	26	77	4	7	2	208	298	342	640	134	282	30	10	290	82	-5	+1	-0	-2	+6	-0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	365	321	68	12	3	9	36	107	5	9	2	213	303	357	659	144	284	29	10	297	87	-6	+1	-1	-2	+8	0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	437	385	83	15	3	12	43	126	6	11	3	217	306	368	674	151	285	29	10	303	91	-5	+1	-1	-3	+9	0.2
2032	24	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	481	424	93	16	4	14	47	137	7	12	3	220	309	377	686	157	287	28	10	307	94	-3	+1	-1	-3	+10	0.5
2033	25	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	507	445	99	17	4	16	50	144	7	13	3	222	310	382	692	161	287	28	10	310	96	-3	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.6
2034	26	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	521	458	102	18	4	16	51	148	7	13	3	222	310	386	696	164	287	28	10	311	97	-2	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.7
2035	27	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	523	459	102	18	4	16	52	150	7	13	3	221	309	383	692	162	286	29	10	310	96	-3	+1	-1	-3	+11	0.6
2036	28	MLB MLE	MIN	55%	520	457	100	17	4	16	51	150	7	12	3	219	307	378	685	159	285	29	10	307	94	-4	+1	-2	-3	+11	0.4
2037	29	MLB MLE	MIN	53%	509	448	98	17	4	15	50	148	6	11	3	216	304	372	676	155	283	29	10	303	91	-5	+1	-2	-3	+11	0.1
2038	30	MLB MLE	MIN	57%	496	439	93	16	3	14	48	146	6	10	3	213	300	363	664	150	281	29	10	298	88	-7	+1	-3	-3	+11	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	MIN	36%	55	49	9	2	0	1	5	17	1	1	0	202	293	325	618	123	280	31	9	281	76	-2	+0	-0	-0	+1	-0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	MIN	49%	127	111	23	4	1	3	13	38	2	3	1	208	298	343	641	135	282	30	10	290	82	-3	+0	-0	-1	+3	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	199	174	38	7	2	5	20	58	3	5	1	213	303	357	660	144	284	29	10	298	87	-3	+1	-0	-1	+4	0.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	248	218	47	8	2	7	25	72	3	6	2	217	306	369	675	152	285	29	10	303	91	-3	+0	-0	-1	+5	0.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	272	239	52	9	2	8	27	78	4	7	2	221	309	378	687	157	287	29	10	308	94	-2	+1	-0	-2	+6	0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	287	253	56	10	2	9	28	82	4	7	2	222	310	383	693	161	287	29	10	310	96	-1	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	294	259	57	10	2	9	29	84	4	7	2	222	310	386	697	164	287	29	10	311	97	-1	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.4
2035	27	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	290	255	56	10	2	9	29	83	4	7	2	221	309	384	693	162	286	29	10	310	96	-1	+1	-1	-2	+6	0.3
2036	28	MLB CTX	MIN	55%	285	251	55	9	2	9	28	82	4	6	2	219	307	379	686	160	285	29	10	307	94	-2	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	MIN	53%	272	240	52	9	2	8	27	79	3	6	2	217	304	372	677	156	283	29	10	303	91	-3	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.1
2038	30	MLB CTX	MIN	57%	283	250	53	9	2	8	28	83	3	6	2	213	301	364	665	151	281	29	10	299	88	-4	+0	-2	-2	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2612	2299	498	87	19	76	259	756	35	61	18	217	305	370	676	154	286	29	10	305	89	-25	+5	-7	-16	+57	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	125	22	5	19	64	188	9	15	4	219	307	374	681	156	289	29	10	305	89	-6	+1	-2	-4	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5254	4601	978	172	41	144	533	1556	75	152	39	213	304	362	666	149	285	30	10	299	89	-51	+12	-13	-29	+106	2.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	121	21	5	18	66	193	9	19	5	213	304	362	666	149	285	30	10	299	89	-7	+2	-2	-4	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Twins · 194 PAwOBA .385 → .269 (−116)K% 30.9% → 44.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	30.93%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	44.54%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	27.32%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.022	17.32%
HBP% /PA	2.58%	—	×0.720	—	×1.022	1.90%
Singles /BIP	17.81%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.018	×1.022	15.20%
Doubles /BIP	10.96%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.018	×1.022	8.21%
Triples /BIP	5.48%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.018	×1.022	4.11%
Home runs /BIP	4.11%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.022	3.28%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.

Result: wOBA .385 → .269; ISO .188 → .139; BABIP .347 → .276. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Twins · 189 PAwOBA .360 → .235 (−125)K% 25.4% → 31.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	25.40%	÷0.990	×1.220	—	—	31.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	14.81%	÷0.995	×0.700	—	×1.022	10.66%
HBP% /PA	2.65%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	1.89%
Singles /BIP	24.30%	÷0.991	×0.680	×0.990	×1.022	16.88%
Doubles /BIP	6.54%	÷0.982	×0.600	×0.990	×1.022	4.05%
Triples /BIP	1.87%	÷1.150	×0.600	×0.990	×1.022	0.99%
Home runs /BIP	4.67%	÷0.953	×0.470	—	×1.022	2.36%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 98, 2B 96, 3B 130, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .360 → .235; ISO .168 → .090; BABIP .340 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Scott Spiezio'96-'07 * career totals — 11 seasons, 4,412 PA	6.6	4,412	119	33	245*	318*	406*	-34	-15	7.5	7.8
/162	664	18	5	-5.2	-2.3	1.1	pk7: 8
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Gregory Polancolast yr '21 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,220 PA	4.8	3,220	96	98	241	309	409	-34	-28	3.8	4.4
/162	664	20	20	-7.1	-5.8	0.8	pk7: 5
#4Pat Sheridan'81-'91 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,700 PA	4.1	2,700	51	86	250*	319*	387*	-22	-3	4.0	4.2
/162	664	13	21	-5.4	-0.8	1.0	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.9	2,616	77	62	218	303	374	-16	-12	3.8	3.6
/162	664	19	16	-4.0	-3.0	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Ricky Ledee'98-'07 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,307 PA	3.5	2,307	63	29	233*	311*	398*	-19	-6	2.4	3.1
/162	664	18	8	-5.5	-1.8	0.7	pk7: 4
#6John Mayberry Jr.last yr '15 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,506 PA	2.3	1,506	54	15	234	298	417	-6	-18	1.7	1.7
/162	664	24	7	-2.8	-8.1	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Teilon Serrano (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	193/283/300	107	277	2	2	31%	10%	69	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Max Clark 2024 · A	19	44→53	42→45	51→55	48	207/292/314	106	308	9	11	33%	10%	74	-0.5	238/314/357	119	306	11	17	24%	9%	92	+0.7	245/323/369	124	304	11	19	22%	10%	96	+0.9
✕Akil Baddoo 2019 · A	20	43→53	43→50	56→55	47	207/283/329	122	293	8	13	30%	9%	74	-0.6	215/284/346	131	317	11	16	33%	9%	78	-0.3	238/319/386	148	309	15	24	26%	11%	100	+0.9
✕Dalton Pompey 2012 · A	19	39→49	41→45	56→55	45	194/267/288	94	272	9	17	30%	8%	59	-1.6	221/287/321	100	309	7	21	28%	8%	73	-0.6	269/328/372	103	341	7	29	22%	7%	97	+0.9
✕Marcelo Mayer 2022 · A	19	46→47	42→50	53→50	42	215/279/322	107	328	10	12	35%	8%	71	-0.8	225/292/370	145	321	15	12	32%	8%	86	+0.3	229/294/381	151	313	16	14	30%	8%	88	+0.3
✕Estevan Florial 2017 · A	19	39→49	42→50	52→60	40	192/255/297	106	289	10	11	35%	7%	56	-1.9	217/275/334	117	369	10	13	40%	7%	72	-0.7	214/285/371	157	317	17	29	36%	8%	82	+0.0
✕Taylor Trammell 2018 · A	20	46→48	42→55	57→55	44	221/281/328	107	312	8	21	30%	8%	72	-0.7	211/286/306	95	305	8	18	31%	9%	70	-0.8	213/300/386	173	283	21	17	31%	10%	93	+0.5
✕Jarred Kelenic 2019 · A	20	45→54	43→60	57→50	43	219/279/335	116	297	10	13	29%	7%	74	-0.6	230/290/411	181	294	21	13	28%	7%	96	+1.0	230/297/414	184	294	20	15	28%	8%	99	+1.1
✕Bo Naylor 2019 · A	19	45→46	39→55	52→50	46	212/280/301	90	299	6	9	30%	9%	66	-1.1	196/254/318	122	282	11	8	33%	7%	60	-1.6	218/311/396	178	274	21	12	27%	11%	100	+1.0
✕Franchy Cordero 2014 · A	19	44→54	38→55	58→50	41	207/265/293	86	304	5	13	32%	7%	58	-1.7	208/250/287	79	323	5	13	35%	5%	51	-2.3	250/293/418	168	373	15	17	35%	5%	94	+0.7
✕Kevyn Castillo 2024 · A	19	49→46	38→50	54→55	53	227/310/317	91	295	4	19	23%	10%	81	-0.1	232/306/336	104	327	8	14	29%	9%	84	+0.1	232/311/351	119	315	11	14	28%	9%	86	+0.2
✕Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→55	55→60	47	200/270/292	91	260	7	13	25%	8%	60	-1.6	205/256/277	72	300	3	25	30%	6%	51	-2.3	240/291/409	169	325	21	27	32%	5%	95	+0.4
✕Victor Mesa Jr. 2022 · A	20	45→46	40→55	52→50	40	217/262/316	100	295	6	9	28%	6%	62	-1.4	216/267/327	111	285	10	9	27%	6%	67	-1.1	238/297/408	169	279	21	11	23%	7%	95	+0.5
✕Victor Arias 2024 · A	20	41→50	40→45	55→50	48	193/289/289	97	300	7	16	35%	11%	68	-1.0	227/296/340	113	318	9	15	29%	8%	81	-0.1	226/289/343	117	310	10	15	29%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Forrest Wall 2015 · A	19	48→55	41→45	56→70	47	227/291/331	104	301	7	17	26%	8%	76	-0.4	226/279/325	99	296	7	16	25%	6%	70	-0.8	250/321/350	101	344	8	50	27%	8%	89	+0.3
✕Jett Williams 2023 · A	19	45→48	41→50	56→55	44	216/287/317	101	287	8	14	26%	7%	73	-0.6	213/317/337	124	303	10	23	29%	12%	90	+0.6	212/316/350	138	296	11	26	29%	12%	89	+0.4
✕Tirso Ornelas 2019 · A	19	44→54	41→50	50→45	45	214/282/314	100	297	8	5	30%	8%	70	-0.9	195/261/274	79	285	5	5	31%	8%	53	-2.1	262/321/391	130	320	13	7	22%	7%	99	+1.1
✕Angel Guzman 2024 · A	18	39	39→45	51→55	51	190/275/281	91	246	6	9	24%	9%	61	-1.5	193/294/290	97	272	8	10	29%	11%	70	-0.8	182/294/282	100	260	9	9	30%	12%	65	-0.4
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Termarr Johnson 2023 · A	19	46→53	41→45	52→55	47	212/293/316	104	323	7	14	34%	10%	75	-0.5	217/315/345	128	302	15	12	30%	12%	91	+0.6	218/312/337	119	292	14	14	28%	11%	85	+0.2

Teilon Serrano

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps