Ayden Johnson — OGILVIE

Ayden JohnsonSS DSL Athletics

Age 18 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs ROK HR -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION96 act + 64 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†50

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .297 / .333

PA64

HR1

K%31

BB%9

BABIP306

ISO123

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+1.4	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+1.4	$6M	+$4M
2036	Arb-3	$6M	+1.2	$4M	+$2M
Totals		$17M		$30M	+$23M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Athletics	—	140	118	20	3	1	0	14	54	7	15	2	169	295	212	507	42	308	39	10	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Athletics	—	140	109	28	5	1	0	23	38	7	15	2	257	417	321	738	64	389	27	16	351	127	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	OAK	—	96	84	13	1	1	0	10	35	1	3	1	155	253	190	443	36	260	36	10	212	20	-9	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.5
YTD	18	ROK	OAK	—	96	78	18	2	1	0	16	24	1	3	1	231	368	282	650	51	327	25	17	309	95	-1	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.3
ROS	18	ROK	OAK	0%	64	57	12	2	1	1	6	20	1	1	0	211	297	333	630	123	276	31	9	250	50	-4	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.1
ROS	18	MLB	OAK	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		274	—	—	239	41	—	—	-0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	OAK	—	96	85	13	1	1	0	10	35	1	3	1	153	253	188	441	35	255	36	10	212	20	-9	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.5
TOT	18	ROK	OAK	—	160	141	25	3	2	1	16	55	2	4	1	177	270	248	519	71	279	34	10	227	32	-12	+0	-0	+2	+5	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	OAK	34%	207	184	37	6	1	3	18	61	3	4	1	201	283	293	576	92	282	29	9	266	62	-9	+0	-1	+2	+6	-0.2
2028	20	MLB	OAK	48%	342	304	63	10	2	6	30	99	5	6	1	207	289	312	602	105	285	29	9	277	70	-12	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.0
2029	21	MLB	OAK	54%	445	395	84	13	3	9	40	126	7	8	2	213	296	329	625	116	286	28	9	285	76	-12	+1	-3	+5	+13	0.3
2030	22	MLB	OAK	57%	518	459	99	16	3	11	46	145	8	10	2	216	298	336	634	120	288	28	9	290	80	-12	+1	-4	+6	+15	0.6
2031	23	MLB	OAK	58%	567	502	110	17	4	13	51	158	9	11	2	219	302	347	649	127	289	28	9	294	83	-11	+1	-4	+6	+16	0.9
2032	24	MLB	OAK	57%	599	530	117	18	4	15	54	167	10	11	2	221	305	355	659	134	290	28	9	297	85	-10	+1	-4	+6	+17	1.1
2033	25	MLB	OAK	57%	618	547	122	19	4	16	56	172	10	12	2	223	307	360	667	137	290	28	9	299	87	-9	+2	-4	+7	+18	1.2
2034	26	MLB	OAK	57%	627	555	124	19	4	17	57	174	10	12	2	223	307	364	671	141	290	28	9	301	88	-8	+2	-4	+7	+18	1.4
2035	27	MLB	OAK	55%	628	555	124	19	4	17	58	175	10	12	2	223	308	364	672	141	290	28	9	301	88	-8	+2	-4	+7	+18	1.4
2036	28	MLB	OAK	55%	624	551	122	19	4	16	58	175	10	12	2	221	307	358	664	136	289	28	9	300	88	-9	+2	-5	+7	+18	1.2
2037	29	MLB	OAK	53%	615	543	119	18	4	16	57	174	10	11	2	219	305	355	660	136	289	28	9	298	86	-10	+1	-6	+7	+17	1.0
2038	30	MLB	OAK	53%	604	533	117	18	4	15	56	172	10	11	2	220	306	353	658	133	288	28	9	296	84	-11	+1	-6	+6	+17	0.8
2039	31	MLB	OAK	52%	590	521	112	17	4	14	55	170	9	10	2	215	301	344	644	129	285	29	9	292	81	-12	+1	-7	+6	+17	0.5
2040	32	MLB	OAK	56%	572	505	106	16	3	13	53	167	9	9	2	210	296	331	627	121	283	29	9	287	78	-15	+1	-8	+6	+16	0.1
2041	33	MLB	OAK	59%	542	479	98	14	3	12	50	161	8	8	2	205	291	322	612	117	279	30	9	280	73	-17	+1	-8	+6	+15	-0.3
2042	34	MLB	OAK	54%	495	440	87	12	3	10	45	150	7	7	2	198	283	307	589	109	274	30	9	273	67	-19	+1	-8	+5	+14	-0.7
2027	19	MLB	OAK	34%	71	64	12	2	0	1	6	21	1	1	0	188	268	266	533	78	280	30	8	253	52	-4	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	OAK	48%	166	147	31	5	1	3	15	48	3	3	1	211	297	320	617	109	282	29	9	263	60	-8	+0	-1	+2	+5	-0.2
2029	21	MLB	OAK	54%	241	214	46	7	2	5	21	68	4	5	1	215	297	336	634	121	284	28	9	271	65	-9	+1	-2	+3	+7	-0.1
2030	22	MLB	OAK	57%	293	260	56	9	2	6	26	82	5	6	1	215	299	335	634	119	285	28	9	276	69	-10	+1	-2	+3	+8	-0.0
2031	23	MLB	OAK	58%	326	289	62	10	2	7	29	91	5	6	1	215	297	336	633	121	286	28	9	279	72	-10	+1	-2	+3	+9	0.1
2032	24	MLB	OAK	57%	341	302	65	10	2	8	31	95	5	6	1	215	299	341	640	126	287	28	9	282	74	-10	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.2
2033	25	MLB	OAK	57%	351	310	68	10	2	9	32	98	6	7	1	219	305	352	656	132	287	28	9	285	76	-10	+1	-3	+4	+10	0.3
2034	26	MLB	OAK	57%	355	314	69	11	2	9	32	99	6	7	1	220	304	354	657	134	287	28	9	286	77	-9	+1	-3	+4	+10	0.3
2035	27	MLB	OAK	55%	348	307	67	10	2	9	32	97	6	7	1	218	304	352	656	134	287	28	9	286	77	-9	+1	-2	+4	+10	0.3
2036	28	MLB	OAK	55%	343	302	66	10	2	9	32	96	6	6	1	219	306	354	660	136	287	28	9	285	77	-9	+1	-3	+4	+10	0.2
2037	29	MLB	OAK	53%	329	290	63	10	2	8	31	93	5	6	1	217	304	348	652	131	286	28	9	284	75	-9	+1	-3	+4	+9	0.1
2038	30	MLB	OAK	53%	318	280	61	9	2	8	30	91	5	6	1	218	305	350	655	132	285	29	9	281	74	-10	+1	-3	+3	+9	0.0
2039	31	MLB	OAK	52%	308	271	58	9	2	7	29	89	5	5	1	214	302	339	641	125	283	29	9	278	71	-10	+1	-4	+3	+9	-0.1
2040	32	MLB	OAK	56%	321	283	59	9	2	7	30	94	5	5	1	208	296	329	624	120	280	29	9	273	67	-12	+1	-4	+3	+9	-0.3
2041	33	MLB	OAK	59%	320	282	58	8	2	7	30	95	5	5	1	206	293	323	616	117	277	30	9	267	63	-14	+1	-5	+3	+9	-0.5
2042	34	MLB	OAK	54%	270	239	48	6	2	6	25	82	4	4	1	201	287	318	605	117	272	30	9	260	57	-13	+0	-5	+3	+8	-0.7
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4701	4155	889	135	29	109	431	1339	76	85	15	214	300	339	639	125	285	28	9	278	71	-155	+11	-44	+50	+133	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	123	19	4	15	60	185	11	12	2	214	301	339	640	125	285	28	9	278	71	-21	+2	-6	+7	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	8797	7778	1673	256	56	204	804	2520	143	170	32	215	300	341	641	126	288	29	9	290	80	-195	+21	-81	+94	+249	9.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	123	19	4	15	59	186	11	13	2	214	299	339	638	125	286	29	9	290	80	-14	+2	-6	+7	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Athletics	—	140	109	28	5	1	0	23	38	7	15	2	257	417	321	738	64	389	27	16	351	127	+4	+2	—	—	+4	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Luis Valbuenalast yr '18 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,527 PA	10	3,527	113	10	226	311	395	+13	+1	10.5	11.2
	/162	664	21	2	226	311	395	+2.4	+0.1	2.0	pk7: 12
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#6Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 10 projected seasons	10	4,818	113	87	217	298	344	+50	+0	8.8	7.6
	/162	664	16	12	217	298	344	+6.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ayden Johnson (OGILVIE)	18	20→40	35→55	50	55	177/270/248	71	279	1	4	34%	10%	32	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	41→47	41→55	48→50	48	200/282/301	101	267	9	14	27%	9%	64	-0.8	211/283/328	117	302	11	8	32%	8%	71	-0.3	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Ravel Santana 2010 · A	18	39	42→50	48→55	44	192/269/294	102	269	10	9	31%	8%	56	-1.3	219/288/360	141	283	16	15	27%	8%	81	+0.4	220/291/383	163	271	20	20	26%	8%	85	+0.3
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Ceddanne Rafaela 2019 · A	18	42→48	39→55	51→55	40	205/251/286	81	270	6	16	26%	5%	45	-2.1	206/254/321	115	262	11	14	25%	5%	56	-1.3	247/287/396	150	298	15	20	22%	4%	88	+0.7
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	57	-1.2	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	62	-0.9	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	63	-0.3
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→47	36→55	49→30	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	43	-2.2	204/277/283	79	275	6	5	26%	8%	56	-1.3	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Jason Lopez 2016 · A	18	41	36→55	49→45	47	196/260/260	65	259	4	13	25%	8%	43	-2.2	203/259/301	98	276	9	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	42→41	39→55	47→50	50	201/285/293	92	282	6	8	29%	10%	63	-0.9	187/257/303	116	284	10	9	35%	7%	53	-1.5	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	43→46	38→45	47→55	49	203/297/279	76	256	6	12	22%	8%	66	-0.6	211/299/308	97	254	9	16	20%	9%	72	-0.2	216/299/322	106	259	12	19	21%	8%	75	-0.0
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	43→40	38→55	48→50	43	202/265/291	89	290	5	5	30%	7%	53	-1.5	195/240/313	118	278	11	5	32%	5%	47	-1.9	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Yordalin Peña 2023 · A	18	41→39	40→55	55	37	198/247/291	93	283	6	10	31%	5%	45	-2.1	188/247/280	92	276	6	12	32%	6%	42	-2.3	189/253/317	128	293	11	17	37%	7%	53	-0.7
✕Maximo Rivera 2011 · A	18	40	35→45	46→60	39	188/247/243	55	285	3	9	33%	6%	33	-2.9	208/263/297	89	272	9	19	26%	6%	53	-1.5	235/283/299	64	302	5	24	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	42→41	40→55	51→50	44	201/267/302	101	282	7	12	30%	7%	56	-1.3	197/248/287	90	281	7	11	31%	5%	44	-2.1	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Yairo Muñoz 2013 · A	18	41→51	37→50	48→55	41	195/247/274	79	274	2	8	29%	6%	40	-2.4	202/253/286	84	263	5	7	24%	6%	46	-2.0	262/304/399	137	319	15	17	22%	5%	91	+0.7
●Derek Hill 2015 · A	19	41→51	40→50	55→60	47	200/269/291	91	259	7	13	25%	8%	55	-1.4	199/251/270	71	293	3	25	31%	6%	40	-2.4	248/301/422	175	338	22	29	32%	6%	100	+0.7
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2016 · A	18	44	37→55	50→45	43	208/271/281	73	270	4	6	23%	6%	53	-1.5	241/286/357	116	275	12	5	17%	5%	79	+0.3	241/284/373	131	274	16	5	18%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Riley Unroe 2014 · A	18	42→48	37→50	51→55	47	196/275/269	72	289	3	9	31%	9%	52	-1.6	193/254/254	61	272	4	9	28%	7%	38	-2.6	227/311/367	139	295	15	26	27%	10%	89	+0.5
●José Fermín 2017 · A	18	42→50	37→45	48→55	44	201/258/285	84	274	3	8	27%	7%	48	-1.9	201/251/277	76	239	4	11	17%	4%	43	-2.2	256/343/399	143	276	14	28	13%	10%	110	+1.2
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	36	-2.7	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	53	-1.5	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	44	-0.5