Ayden Johnson

SS DSL Athletics

Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs ROK HR -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKOAK	140	.257/.417/.321	0	15	45	—	.164/.302/.207
2026	18	ROKOAK	134	.234/.383/.280	0	5	32	—	.158/.278/.193
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBOAK	244	.194/.277/.265	2	5	57	-0.1
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBOAK	43	.205/.289/.295	0	1	64	-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB	21	MLBOAK	107	.211/.294/.313	2	2	70	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$3M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%86

BB%68

Z-Con%55

Speed54

Whiff%47

wRC+38

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsAndrés Nolaya (age 19) · Jesús Báez (age 19) · Jhostynxon Garcia (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 69 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .275 / .263

PA69

HR1

K%30

BB%9

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$0M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2034	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$5M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-3	$7M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$5M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Athletics	—	140	109	28	5	1	0	23	38	7	15	2	257	417	321	738	64	389	27	16	351	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	DSL Athletics	—	134	107	25	3	1	0	24	39	2	5	1	234	383	280	664	47	362	29	18	319	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	140	116	19	3	1	0	16	46	7	15	2	164	302	207	509	43	252	33	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	134	114	18	2	1	0	17	48	2	5	1	158	278	193	471	35	246	36	13	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	140	116	19	3	1	0	16	46	7	15	2	164	302	207	509	43	268	33	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	—	140	109	28	5	1	0	23	38	7	15	2	257	417	321	738	64	389	27	16	351	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	134	114	18	2	1	0	17	48	2	5	1	158	278	193	471	35	269	36	13	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	DSL Athletics	—	134	107	25	3	1	0	24	39	2	5	1	234	383	280	664	47	362	29	18	319	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	140	116	19	3	1	0	16	46	7	15	2	164	302	207	509	43	252	33	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	134	114	18	2	1	0	17	48	2	5	1	158	278	193	471	35	246	36	13	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	140	116	19	3	1	0	16	46	7	15	2	164	302	207	509	43	252	33	11	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	DSL Athletics	—	134	114	18	2	1	0	17	48	2	5	1	158	278	193	471	35	246	36	13	216	32	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	OAK	0%	244	217	42	6	2	2	21	73	4	5	1	194	277	265	542	72	278	30	9	252	57	-13	+1	-2	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	OAK	34%	124	110	21	3	1	1	11	36	2	2	1	200	284	286	570	86	280	29	9	263	64	-5	+0	-1	+1	+3	-0.3
2029	21	MLB MLE	OAK	48%	221	196	40	6	2	3	20	64	3	4	1	206	289	304	593	98	282	29	9	272	70	-8	+0	-2	+2	+5	-0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	OAK	54%	333	295	62	10	2	6	30	94	5	7	2	210	294	319	613	108	284	28	9	279	75	-10	+1	-3	+4	+7	-0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	OAK	57%	412	366	78	12	3	8	37	115	6	8	2	215	297	332	629	117	286	28	9	286	79	-10	+1	-2	+4	+9	0.2
2032	24	MLB MLE	OAK	57%	462	411	89	14	3	10	41	128	7	9	2	218	300	343	643	124	287	28	9	291	83	-9	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.5
2033	25	MLB MLE	OAK	57%	492	438	96	15	3	12	44	136	7	9	2	219	301	348	649	128	287	28	9	293	85	-9	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	OAK	56%	507	449	98	15	3	12	45	140	8	9	2	220	302	352	654	132	287	28	9	295	86	-9	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.9
2035	27	MLB MLE	OAK	55%	511	452	98	15	3	12	46	142	8	9	2	219	301	349	651	130	287	28	9	294	85	-9	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.9
2036	28	MLB MLE	OAK	59%	509	452	98	15	3	12	45	142	7	9	2	217	299	345	644	128	286	28	9	291	83	-10	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.7
2037	29	MLB MLE	OAK	61%	499	445	95	15	3	11	44	141	7	8	2	215	297	339	635	124	285	28	9	288	81	-11	+1	-1	+5	+11	0.4
2038	30	MLB MLE	OAK	62%	487	434	92	14	3	11	43	139	7	7	3	212	293	331	625	119	283	29	9	283	78	-13	+0	-2	+5	+11	0.1
2039	31	MLB MLE	OAK	63%	470	420	88	13	3	10	41	136	6	6	3	208	289	322	611	114	280	29	9	278	74	-15	+0	-3	+5	+10	-0.2
2028	20	MLB CTX	OAK	34%	43	38	7	1	0	0	4	13	1	1	0	205	289	295	584	90	289	30	9	268	64	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	OAK	48%	107	95	20	3	1	2	9	31	2	2	1	211	294	313	607	102	291	29	8	277	70	-4	+0	-1	+1	+2	-0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	OAK	54%	181	160	34	6	1	3	16	51	3	4	1	216	299	328	626	112	293	28	9	285	75	-5	+0	-2	+2	+4	-0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	OAK	57%	233	206	46	8	2	5	21	65	4	5	1	220	302	340	643	120	294	28	9	291	79	-6	+1	-1	+2	+5	0.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	OAK	57%	261	232	52	9	2	6	23	72	4	5	1	224	305	351	656	128	296	28	9	296	83	-5	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	OAK	57%	278	247	55	9	2	6	25	77	4	5	1	225	306	356	663	132	296	28	9	299	85	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	OAK	56%	286	254	58	10	2	7	26	79	4	5	1	226	307	360	667	135	296	28	9	300	86	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	OAK	55%	283	252	57	10	2	7	25	79	4	5	1	225	306	358	664	133	296	28	9	299	85	-5	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	OAK	59%	301	267	60	10	2	7	27	84	4	5	1	223	304	353	657	131	295	28	9	296	83	-6	+1	-0	+3	+7	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	OAK	61%	304	270	60	10	2	7	27	86	4	5	1	220	301	347	648	127	293	28	9	293	81	-7	+1	-1	+3	+7	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	OAK	62%	303	269	59	10	2	6	27	87	4	4	2	217	298	340	637	122	292	29	9	288	78	-8	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.1
2039	31	MLB CTX	OAK	63%	297	265	56	9	2	6	26	86	4	4	2	213	293	330	623	117	289	29	9	283	74	-9	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2877	2555	564	95	20	62	256	810	42	50	13	221	302	346	649	126	296	28	9	292	78	-67	+5	-9	+31	+62	2.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	577	127	21	5	14	58	183	9	11	3	220	301	347	647	127	295	28	9	292	78	-15	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	5370	4760	1004	154	34	109	486	1528	83	108	27	211	295	326	621	115	284	28	9	283	78	-121	+8	-18	+55	+110	3.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	122	19	4	13	59	185	10	13	3	212	296	326	623	115	286	28	9	283	78	-15	+1	-2	+7	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Athletics · 134 PAwOBA .314 → .216 (−98)K% 29.1% → 35.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.10%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	35.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.91%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×1.008	12.63%
HBP% /PA	1.49%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.05%
Singles /BIP	30.88%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.010	×1.008	21.38%
Doubles /BIP	4.41%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.010	×1.008	2.69%
Triples /BIP	1.47%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.010	×1.008	0.90%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .314 → .216; ISO .047 → .029; BABIP .362 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Athletics · 140 PAwOBA .346 → .235 (−111)K% 27.1% → 33.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	27.14%	÷1.004	×1.220	—	—	32.97%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	16.43%	÷1.009	×0.700	—	×1.022	11.65%
HBP% /PA	5.00%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.58%
Singles /BIP	30.99%	÷0.994	×0.680	×0.950	×1.022	20.59%
Doubles /BIP	7.04%	÷1.013	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	4.05%
Triples /BIP	1.41%	÷0.900	×0.600	×0.950	×1.022	0.91%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.868	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 74, 1B 99, 2B 103, 3B 80, K 101, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .346 → .235; ISO .064 → .039; BABIP .389 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Dick Schofield'83-'96 * career totals — 12 seasons, 4,928 PA	7.4	4,928	56	120	227*	307*	330*	+52	+19	9.4	10.0
/162	664	8	16	+7.1	+2.5	1.3	pk7: 11
#2Sean Rodríguezlast yr '19 career totals — 11 seasons, 2,871 PA	4.3	2,871	79	42	226	302	380	+10	+16	8.1	8.5
/162	664	18	10	+2.3	+3.7	1.9	pk7: 9
#3Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#4Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	3.6	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
/162	664	10	21	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	4.4	2,946	64	51	216	294	336	+32	+0	4.6	4.3
/162	664	14	11	+7.1	+0.0	1.0	pk7: 4
#5Luis Rivera'86-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,453 PA	3.7	2,453	28	20	232*	291*	357*	+24	+5	1.2	2.3
/162	664	8	5	+6.4	+1.4	0.3	pk7: 3
#6Frank Duffy'70-'79 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,924 PA	4.4	2,924	26	49	234*	283*	348*	+30	-2	0.9	2.1
/162	664	6	11	+6.7	-0.5	0.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ayden Johnson (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	192/275/263	71	278	1	1	30%	9%	57	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Nolaya 2024 · A	19	39	36→45	47→50	46	183/256/246	64	263	3	12	30%	8%	45	-2.7	196/270/269	73	284	4	17	30%	8%	55	-1.9	201/281/282	81	280	7	21	28%	8%	61	-0.5
✕Jesús Báez 2024 · A	19	35→41	40→55	45	46	177/246/265	88	234	7	9	27%	8%	46	-2.6	218/275/368	150	257	19	8	23%	6%	80	-0.1	226/279/407	181	249	27	8	22%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	41→44	38→50	47→50	54	193/285/279	86	256	5	8	25%	11%	63	-1.3	188/262/304	116	277	10	9	34%	8%	61	-1.5	226/279/379	153	297	20	9	30%	5%	81	-0.0
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→47	36→45	49→50	39	193/238/260	66	278	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	208/254/280	72	286	5	10	28%	5%	51	-2.2	233/299/360	126	304	15	8	27%	7%	84	+0.1
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	38	36→50	50→45	44	181/261/246	65	268	3	13	31%	8%	47	-2.5	202/271/300	98	303	9	5	34%	6%	63	-1.3	206/275/350	144	296	17	5	34%	7%	73	-0.3
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	36→44	39→50	53→55	48	177/265/262	85	249	7	11	30%	9%	53	-2.1	194/283/299	105	299	9	16	34%	10%	68	-1.0	223/303/376	153	308	17	18	31%	10%	89	+0.4
✕Ezequiel Tovar 2021 · A	19	44→49	37→55	49→50	45	205/273/280	75	288	3	12	28%	8%	59	-1.7	244/281/380	136	295	14	15	22%	4%	84	+0.2	251/287/411	161	323	17	11	27%	4%	94	+0.8
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	40→38	37→45	47→55	52	185/290/259	74	266	4	8	29%	11%	62	-1.4	194/289/297	103	280	10	14	31%	10%	70	-0.8	181/287/307	126	264	14	27	34%	10%	70	-0.7
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	39	37→50	49→45	46	189/256/259	71	249	5	11	25%	7%	48	-2.5	203/254/307	104	277	9	7	29%	6%	57	-1.8	192/240/305	113	271	11	8	32%	6%	50	-1.0
✕Juan Villavicencio 2024 · A	19	36→44	38→50	51→55	47	174/251/254	80	234	5	13	26%	8%	45	-2.7	189/262/280	91	279	7	14	32%	8%	55	-1.9	193/266/307	113	285	10	20	34%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Richard Ramirez 2024 · A	19	34	39→55	48→40	46	173/246/259	86	244	7	5	31%	9%	45	-2.7	199/260/315	116	319	12	4	39%	7%	62	-1.4	198/255/335	137	313	16	2	40%	6%	62	-0.7
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→48	39→45	47→50	43	188/246/273	85	256	6	9	28%	7%	47	-2.6	195/254/294	99	297	8	8	35%	7%	55	-2.0	217/278/341	124	295	14	11	30%	7%	72	-0.6
✕Eddys Leonard 2019 · A	18	39→47	39→50	48→50	51	188/277/271	84	242	6	14	24%	10%	59	-1.6	207/281/319	112	295	10	8	31%	8%	72	-0.7	227/295/375	148	296	16	4	28%	6%	86	+0.3
✕Miguel Palma 2021 · A	19	40	39→45	48→40	45	193/281/280	88	261	6	11	27%	7%	63	-1.3	215/293/337	122	281	13	5	27%	8%	80	-0.1	217/284/341	124	274	15	2	26%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Daniel Lopez 2011 · A	19	42	35→45	49→60	43	194/267/256	61	260	2	12	24%	6%	52	-2.2	219/280/308	89	280	5	17	22%	6%	68	-1.0	240/299/357	117	293	6	30	19%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	40	185/238/269	84	259	7	4	30%	6%	43	-2.8	195/239/273	78	247	5	3	22%	5%	44	-2.8	242/310/379	137	297	17	3	24%	8%	96	+0.5
✕Aldo Gaxiola 2024 · A	18	42	37→55	49→40	46	200/275/274	74	279	5	9	28%	8%	59	-1.7	199/263/295	96	263	9	5	27%	6%	59	-1.7	193/251/309	115	259	14	2	30%	5%	55	-0.8
✕Andres Regnault 2018 · A	19	36	36→45	46→45	43	175/246/237	62	253	4	6	31%	7%	39	-3.1	208/272/308	100	260	8	7	22%	6%	65	-1.2	204/273/325	121	234	12	6	18%	6%	69	-0.4
✕Luis Puello 2024 · A	18	42	36→55	50	47	191/283/258	66	287	2	10	31%	9%	59	-1.7	199/263/294	95	299	8	8	34%	6%	59	-1.7	190/247/314	123	286	14	8	37%	5%	54	-0.7
✕Alexander Canario 2019 · A	19	39→36	41→60	47→50	46	193/265/292	98	258	9	12	28%	8%	59	-1.7	209/266/356	147	291	17	11	33%	7%	74	-0.5	210/280/412	202	285	27	13	35%	8%	90	+0.4

Ayden Johnson

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps