Kevin Alvarez — OGILVIE

Kevin AlvarezOF Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 18 L/L 6'3" / 184 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION443 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†84

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%22

BB%11

BABIP289

ISO140

MLB%4%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$37M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED47

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$6M	+$5M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.2	$6M	+$6M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+1.3	$6M	+$4M
2034	Arb-2	$9M	+1.3	$6M	+$2M
2035	Arb-3	$13M	+1.3	$5M	+$0.1M
Totals		$31M		$35M	+$22M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	156	47	12	3	2	23	19	10	11	5	301	423	455	878	154	328	10	12	390	150	+12	+0	—	—	+4	1.6
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	165	39	9	2	2	14	28	10	11	5	236	333	352	685	115	259	15	7	294	85	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	165	39	9	2	2	14	28	10	11	5	236	333	352	685	115	270	15	7	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	156	47	12	3	2	23	19	10	11	5	301	423	455	878	154	328	10	12	390	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	166	39	9	2	2	14	28	10	11	5	235	333	349	683	114	259	15	7	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	166	39	9	2	2	14	28	10	11	5	235	333	349	683	114	259	15	7	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	A MLE	HOU	—	443	403	89	21	2	10	28	117	7	17	11	221	283	357	640	136	281	26	6	279	75	-13	-1	+0	-3	+10	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	A RAW	HOU	—	443	387	101	26	3	11	44	82	7	17	11	261	347	429	776	168	301	19	10	343	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	A MLE	HOU	4%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		287	22	11	293	84	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
TOT	18	A MLE	HOU	—	452	411	90	21	2	10	29	119	7	17	11	219	282	353	635	134	279	26	6	279	75	-13	-1	-0	-3	+10	-0.7
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	HOU	36%	478	434	103	22	3	13	33	117	8	9	5	237	303	392	695	154	292	24	7	309	95	-3	-0	-1	-3	+10	0.4
2028	20	MLB MLE	HOU	49%	517	466	114	24	3	16	37	122	9	10	5	245	312	412	725	167	294	24	7	321	103	+2	+0	-1	-3	+11	0.9
2029	21	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	553	498	124	25	3	19	41	128	9	10	5	249	318	426	743	177	295	23	7	329	109	+6	+0	-1	-3	+12	1.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	594	534	134	27	3	21	45	135	10	11	6	251	321	431	752	180	296	23	8	334	112	+9	-0	-1	-4	+13	1.7
2031	23	MLB MLE	HOU	58%	620	557	142	29	3	23	47	139	11	11	6	255	325	442	767	187	296	22	8	338	115	+11	-0	-1	-4	+13	1.9
2032	24	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	637	572	146	30	3	24	49	142	11	11	6	255	326	444	770	189	297	22	8	340	116	+12	-0	-1	-4	+14	2.1
2033	25	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	642	576	148	30	3	25	50	142	11	11	6	257	328	450	778	193	297	22	8	341	117	+13	-0	-1	-4	+14	2.2
2034	26	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	644	578	148	30	3	25	50	143	11	11	6	256	327	448	775	192	297	22	8	342	118	+14	-0	-1	-4	+14	2.3
2035	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	641	574	147	30	3	25	51	142	11	11	6	256	329	449	778	193	297	22	8	342	118	+13	-0	-1	-4	+14	2.2
2036	28	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	633	567	144	29	3	24	50	141	11	11	6	254	326	443	769	189	296	22	8	341	117	+13	-0	-2	-4	+14	2.1
2037	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	622	556	141	28	3	24	50	140	11	10	5	254	327	444	772	191	296	23	8	339	116	+12	+0	-3	-4	+13	1.9
2038	30	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	610	546	138	28	3	23	49	139	10	9	5	253	326	441	767	189	295	23	8	336	114	+10	-0	-3	-4	+13	1.6
2039	31	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	596	533	132	26	3	22	48	138	10	9	5	248	321	432	753	184	292	23	8	332	111	+8	-0	-4	-4	+13	1.3
2040	32	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	577	516	125	25	2	20	46	136	10	8	4	242	316	415	731	172	289	24	8	327	107	+5	+0	-5	-3	+13	0.9
2041	33	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	547	489	116	22	2	19	44	131	9	7	4	237	312	407	719	170	284	24	8	319	102	+1	-0	-5	-3	+12	0.4
2042	34	MLB MLE	HOU	47%	499	449	103	19	2	16	39	123	8	6	3	229	302	388	690	158	278	25	8	310	96	-3	+0	-6	-3	+11	-0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	HOU	36%	172	155	38	8	1	5	12	42	3	3	2	245	312	406	718	161	294	24	7	298	95	-1	-0	-0	-1	+4	0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	HOU	49%	254	230	56	12	1	8	18	60	4	5	2	243	310	409	718	165	296	24	7	308	103	+1	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.5
2029	21	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	301	271	68	14	2	10	22	70	5	5	3	251	319	428	747	177	297	23	7	316	109	+3	-0	-1	-2	+7	0.7
2030	22	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	337	303	77	16	2	12	25	76	6	6	3	254	323	439	762	185	298	23	7	321	112	+5	+0	-1	-2	+7	1.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	HOU	58%	357	321	82	17	2	13	27	80	6	6	3	255	325	442	767	187	299	22	8	325	115	+6	+0	-1	-2	+8	1.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	363	326	83	17	2	13	28	81	6	6	3	255	325	439	764	184	299	22	8	327	116	+7	+0	-1	-2	+8	1.2
2033	25	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	364	327	84	17	2	14	28	81	6	6	3	257	327	450	776	193	299	22	8	329	117	+7	+0	-1	-2	+8	1.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	364	327	84	17	2	14	28	81	6	6	3	257	327	450	776	193	299	22	8	329	118	+8	+0	-1	-2	+8	1.3
2035	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	356	319	82	17	2	13	28	79	6	6	3	257	329	445	774	188	299	22	8	329	118	+7	+0	-1	-2	+8	1.3
2036	28	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	348	311	80	16	2	13	28	78	6	6	3	257	330	447	777	190	299	22	8	328	117	+7	+0	-1	-2	+8	1.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	333	297	76	16	2	12	27	75	6	5	3	256	330	444	775	189	298	23	8	326	116	+6	-0	-1	-2	+7	1.0
2038	30	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	321	286	73	15	2	12	26	73	6	5	3	255	330	448	778	192	297	23	8	324	114	+5	-0	-2	-2	+7	0.9
2039	31	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	311	278	69	14	1	11	25	72	5	5	2	248	321	424	746	176	294	23	8	320	111	+4	+0	-2	-2	+7	0.7
2040	32	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	299	268	65	13	1	10	24	70	5	4	2	243	316	410	727	168	291	23	8	314	107	+3	+0	-2	-2	+6	0.5
2041	33	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	283	253	60	12	1	9	23	68	5	4	2	237	313	399	712	162	286	24	8	307	102	+1	+0	-3	-2	+6	0.2
2042	34	MLB CTX	HOU	47%	236	211	48	9	1	7	19	58	4	3	2	227	303	379	683	152	280	25	8	298	96	-1	-0	-3	-1	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4999	4483	1125	230	26	176	388	1144	85	81	42	251	322	432	754	181	297	23	8	320	110	+68	-1	-20	-30	+108	12.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	583	146	30	3	23	50	149	11	11	5	250	321	431	752	180	296	23	8	320	110	+9	-0	-3	-4	+14	1.7
Career	—	MLE		—	9611	8618	2145	433	47	341	744	2188	170	166	88	249	321	429	750	180	294	23	8	331	110	+123	-2	-39	-57	+204	23.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	145	29	3	23	50	148	11	11	6	249	319	427	746	178	294	23	8	331	110	+8	-0	-3	-4	+14	1.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Vernon Wellslast yr '13 career totals — 13 seasons, 7,118 PA	10.7	7,118	269	108	270	319	461	+0	-19	32.9	31.8
/162	664	25	10	+0.0	-1.8	3.1	pk7: 31
#2Alex Gordonlast yr '20 AS×3GG×7SS career totals — 14 seasons, 7,250 PA	10.9	7,250	190	113	257	338	410	-58	+22	27.4	26.4
/162	664	17	10	-5.3	+2.0	2.5	pk7: 25
#3Yoenis Cespedeslast yr '18 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,456 PA	5.2	3,456	163	43	274	328	498	-37	-13	16.8	16.8
/162	664	31	8	-7.1	-2.4	3.2	pk7: 17
#4Brad Wilkersonlast yr '08 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,753 PA	5.7	3,753	122	53	247	350	440	-35	-8	15.8	16.3
/162	664	22	9	-6.2	-1.4	2.8	pk7: 17
#5Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	6.1	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
/162	664	27	6	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#6Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	5.2	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
/162	664	20	24	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	7.5	5,010	181	83	251	319	435	-30	+0	17.4	14.0
/162	664	24	11	-4.0	+0.0	2.3	pk7: 11

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Alvarez (OGILVIE)	18	43→55	43→55	50→47	50	226/288/363	137	287	6	8	25%	6%	84	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Torres 2023 · A	19	51	50→60	45→50	41	254/302/415	161	312	16	9	24%	5%	101	+1.4	215/280/315	100	345	8	5	37%	7%	70	-0.9	183/261/256	73	332	4	0	42%	8%	46	-0.6
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→55	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	84	+0.1	213/299/399	186	281	23	6	32%	9%	97	+1.1	266/322/445	180	311	23	10	22%	6%	115	+2.3
●Jackson Chourio 2022 · A	18	44→54	42→60	48→55	46	218/280/321	104	273	10	10	24%	7%	71	-0.8	234/280/388	154	309	17	19	29%	6%	86	+0.3	274/325/460	186	323	22	21	22%	7%	115	+2.3
●David Dahl 2013 · A	19	53→57	46→60	51→55	41	259/293/403	145	311	11	10	21%	4%	94	+0.9	238/269/364	126	304	9	14	24%	4%	76	-0.4	267/318/453	186	342	20	12	27%	7%	112	+1.7
✕Fernando Martinez 2007 · A	18	48→55	46→50	47→45	40	237/284/373	136	297	13	9	25%	5%	84	+0.2	243/286/361	118	306	10	8	23%	5%	82	-0.0	240/289/384	144	312	16	1	28%	4%	87	+0.2
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	47→53	50→55	47→50	43	237/292/389	152	313	18	7	30%	7%	91	+0.7	242/299/400	158	345	17	3	33%	7%	96	+1.0	245/307/425	181	322	22	5	30%	8%	102	+1.3
●Josue De Paula 2023 · A	18	51	43→50	50→55	51	244/315/357	114	300	9	14	21%	9%	92	+0.7	228/318/325	97	308	8	17	26%	11%	86	+0.3	228/320/369	141	283	16	24	24%	11%	94	+0.8
✕Jon Singleton 2011 · A	19	49→51	49→55	43→45	50	247/314/397	150	294	16	7	22%	8%	101	+1.4	230/302/363	133	322	15	5	31%	9%	88	+0.5	203/305/370	167	261	22	1	30%	13%	90	+0.5
●Jason Heyward 2009 · A	19	53→60	44→60	52→50	45	259/305/382	123	313	10	9	21%	6%	93	+0.8	266/343/434	168	312	17	10	19%	10%	120	+2.8	262/354/456	194	309	22	14	22%	12%	126	+3.1
●Jay Bruce 2007 · A	20	45→54	48→65	47→50	40	225/272/380	155	303	15	11	30%	6%	81	-0.1	252/300/444	192	320	22	9	27%	6%	107	+1.8	254/334/470	216	299	27	7	24%	10%	115	+2.5
●Jesús Sánchez 2017 · A	19	48→52	44→60	49→50	39	236/267/361	124	294	10	6	24%	4%	74	-0.6	241/275/366	125	311	12	5	26%	4%	78	-0.3	253/320/456	203	316	25	4	27%	8%	113	+1.7
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	46→56	48→55	42→45	40	227/283/376	149	325	15	6	34%	7%	85	+0.2	217/274/360	143	325	13	6	35%	6%	78	-0.3	230/313/394	163	297	19	6	28%	10%	99	+1.3
●Esteury Ruiz 2017 · A	18	46→56	43→50	47→70	43	225/273/343	119	277	9	12	22%	5%	73	-0.6	209/255/323	114	312	8	25	34%	5%	61	-1.5	264/338/395	131	327	12	74	22%	6%	107	+1.2
★Corey Seager 2013 · A	19	46→56	46→65	51→45	44	231/283/363	132	287	14	9	25%	6%	82	-0.0	251/300/422	171	316	18	7	26%	6%	101	+1.4	287/349/471	183	334	20	4	19%	8%	128	+3.6
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2023 · A	19	47→57	45→50	49→45	43	231/296/352	121	282	12	9	22%	5%	84	+0.2	244/298/369	125	295	13	7	21%	5%	88	+0.5	253/307/381	128	303	13	6	20%	5%	92	+0.6
●Austin Meadows 2015 · A	20	49→57	44→65	45→55	44	236/297/362	127	313	9	6	27%	7%	86	+0.3	243/288/364	121	302	9	15	22%	6%	83	+0.1	253/334/493	240	287	30	8	23%	10%	126	+2.4
●Jackson Merrill 2023 · A	20	51→57	43→60	51→50	42	247/291/361	114	327	10	12	27%	6%	83	+0.1	260/301/422	162	298	18	11	19%	5%	102	+1.5	266/313/459	193	307	23	15	21%	6%	112	+2.1
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A	19	43→53	50→65	49→45	44	225/281/373	148	272	18	5	25%	7%	84	+0.1	251/299/413	162	303	21	7	24%	6%	99	+1.3	258/322/495	237	270	35	4	20%	8%	121	+2.8
●Oscar Taveras 2012 · A	20	55→57	45→55	45	43	267/309/400	133	326	10	6	21%	5%	99	+1.3	270/306/417	147	303	14	7	16%	4%	102	+1.5	268/302/412	145	294	14	6	14%	4%	100	+0.9
✕Oswaldo Arcia 2011 · A	20	48→53	49→60	49→45	39	240/279/394	153	303	15	7	26%	4%	87	+0.4	245/293/418	173	329	18	4	30%	6%	98	+1.2	248/309/441	194	320	23	3	29%	7%	107	+1.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps