Kevin Alvarez

OF Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 19 L/L 6'3" / 184 lbs A HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

OGV OFP35OGV rank#429ETA2029MLB%4%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Astros Bl…	192	.301/.423/.455	2	11	67	—	.202/.312/.294
2026	18	AHOU	443	.261/.347/.429	11	17	83	—	.231/.299/.368
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBHOU	8	.231/.295/.370	0	0	85	-0.0
2028PROJ36% MLB	20	MLBHOU	141	.237/.304/.390	4	3	93	0.1
2029PROJ49% MLB	21	MLBHOU	217	.242/.310/.404	6	4	99	0.2

Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$4M2034Arb-2$6M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Z-Con%90

Whiff%85

K%78

ISO67

wRC+61

wOBA57

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.5 / P90 16, comp-based) · star 6% · didn't stick 67%

CompsWalker Jenkins (age 19) · Travis Snider (age 19) · Akil Baddoo (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†85

AVG/OBP/SLG.231 / .295 / .370

PA8

HR0

K%25

BB%12

BABIP292

ISO137

MLB%4%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$17M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.7	$2M	+$1M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Arb-1	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.3M
2034	Arb-2	$6M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-3	$9M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$12M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	156	47	12	3	2	23	19	10	11	5	301	423	455	878	154	328	10	12	390	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	443	387	101	26	3	11	44	82	7	17	11	261	347	429	776	168	301	19	10	343	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	163	33	8	2	1	16	24	10	11	5	202	312	294	607	92	219	12	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	443	399	92	22	3	9	32	112	7	17	11	231	299	368	668	138	288	25	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	163	33	8	2	1	16	24	10	11	5	202	312	294	607	92	229	12	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	156	47	12	3	2	23	19	10	11	5	301	423	455	878	154	328	10	12	390	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	443	399	92	22	3	9	32	112	7	17	11	231	299	368	668	138	293	25	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	443	387	101	26	3	11	44	82	7	17	11	261	347	429	776	168	301	19	10	343	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	164	33	8	2	1	16	24	10	11	5	201	312	293	605	91	219	12	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	443	401	92	22	3	9	32	112	7	17	11	229	299	367	666	137	288	25	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	164	33	8	2	1	16	24	10	11	5	201	312	293	605	91	219	12	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	443	401	92	22	3	9	32	112	7	17	11	229	299	367	666	137	288	25	7	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	HOU	4%	553	502	114	24	3	13	39	142	7	10	4	228	292	366	658	138	287	26	7	294	85	-10	+0	-2	-3	+12	0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	19	MLB CTX	HOU	4%	8	7	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	231	295	370	665	139	292	25	12	297	85	-0	+0	-0	-0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	HOU	36%	393	356	83	17	2	11	29	98	5	8	3	234	301	386	688	152	290	25	7	306	93	-3	+0	-1	-2	+9	0.2
2029	21	MLB MLE	HOU	49%	441	399	95	19	2	14	33	107	6	9	3	239	307	401	708	162	291	24	7	314	99	-1	+1	-1	-3	+10	0.6
2030	22	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	489	441	107	21	3	16	38	117	7	10	4	242	312	411	723	169	292	24	8	320	103	+2	+0	-1	-3	+11	0.8
2031	23	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	545	491	120	24	3	18	42	129	7	11	4	245	314	417	732	172	292	24	8	324	105	+3	+1	-1	-3	+12	1.2
2032	24	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	589	530	131	26	3	20	46	138	8	11	4	246	316	421	737	174	293	23	8	326	107	+5	+1	-1	-4	+13	1.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	597	537	133	26	3	21	47	140	8	11	4	247	317	422	739	176	293	23	8	327	107	+5	+1	-0	-4	+13	1.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	HOU	57%	604	543	134	26	3	21	48	141	8	11	4	247	317	422	739	175	293	23	8	327	107	+5	+1	-0	-4	+13	1.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	599	538	133	26	3	21	48	141	8	10	4	245	316	419	735	174	292	24	8	325	106	+4	+0	-0	-4	+13	1.4
2036	28	MLB MLE	HOU	55%	587	528	129	25	3	20	47	139	7	9	4	244	314	415	728	171	291	24	8	322	104	+3	+0	-1	-4	+13	1.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	568	511	124	24	3	19	45	136	7	8	4	241	311	408	719	167	290	24	8	319	102	+1	+0	-2	-3	+12	0.9
2038	30	MLB MLE	HOU	53%	553	498	118	23	2	18	43	135	7	7	4	238	307	400	708	162	288	24	8	314	99	-1	-0	-2	-3	+12	0.5
2039	31	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	534	482	112	22	2	16	41	132	6	5	6	234	302	390	693	157	285	25	8	308	95	-3	-1	-3	-3	+12	0.0
2040	32	MLB MLE	HOU	52%	512	462	106	20	2	15	39	129	6	4	13	228	296	377	673	149	281	25	8	300	89	-7	-4	-4	-3	+11	-0.7
2028	20	MLB CTX	HOU	36%	141	128	30	6	1	4	10	35	2	3	1	237	304	390	693	152	295	25	7	308	93	-1	+0	-0	-1	+3	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	HOU	49%	217	196	47	10	1	6	16	53	3	4	2	242	310	404	714	162	296	24	7	317	99	-0	+0	-1	-1	+5	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	267	240	58	12	1	8	21	64	4	5	2	245	314	414	728	169	296	24	8	322	103	+1	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.5
2031	23	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	309	278	69	14	2	10	24	73	4	6	2	247	317	420	737	172	297	24	8	326	105	+2	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.7
2032	24	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	333	300	74	15	2	11	26	78	4	6	2	249	319	423	742	174	298	23	8	328	107	+3	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.8
2033	25	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	337	303	76	16	2	11	27	79	4	6	2	249	319	425	744	175	298	23	8	329	107	+3	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.9
2034	26	MLB CTX	HOU	57%	341	307	76	16	2	11	27	80	4	6	2	249	319	424	744	175	298	23	8	329	107	+3	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.9
2035	27	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	332	299	74	15	2	11	26	78	4	6	2	248	318	422	740	174	297	23	8	327	106	+2	+0	-0	-2	+7	0.8
2036	28	MLB CTX	HOU	55%	322	289	73	15	2	11	26	76	4	5	2	246	316	417	733	171	296	24	8	324	104	+2	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.6
2037	29	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	304	273	67	14	1	10	24	73	4	4	2	244	313	411	724	167	295	24	8	321	102	+1	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.5
2038	30	MLB CTX	HOU	53%	291	263	63	13	1	9	23	71	3	4	2	241	310	403	712	162	293	24	8	316	99	-0	+0	-1	-2	+6	0.3
2039	31	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	278	252	59	12	1	8	21	69	3	3	3	236	305	393	697	157	290	25	8	310	95	-2	-1	-2	-2	+6	0.0
2040	32	MLB CTX	HOU	52%	266	241	56	11	1	8	20	67	3	2	7	231	298	380	678	149	285	25	8	302	89	-3	-2	-2	-2	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3738	3369	822	169	19	118	291	896	46	60	31	244	313	411	723	167	296	24	8	321	99	+9	-0	-10	-22	+81	5.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	143	29	3	21	51	156	8	10	5	244	313	411	724	167	296	24	8	321	99	+2	-0	-2	-4	+14	1.0
Career	—	MLE		—	7856	7068	1693	338	40	245	609	1872	110	146	79	240	310	403	712	163	290	24	8	315	99	+10	-2	-21	-43	+156	10.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	140	28	3	20	50	155	9	12	7	239	309	400	709	161	290	24	8	315	99	+1	-0	-2	-4	+14	0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 443 PAwOBA .338 → .291 (−47)K% 18.5% → 25.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.51%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	25.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.93%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.050	7.20%
HBP% /PA	1.58%	—	×0.780	—	×1.050	1.29%
Singles /BIP	20.00%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.025	×1.050	19.81%
Doubles /BIP	8.52%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.025	×1.050	7.62%
Triples /BIP	0.98%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.025	×1.050	0.96%
Home runs /BIP	3.61%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.050	3.03%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 22.0 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .338 → .291; ISO .168 → .141; BABIP .301 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Astros Blue · 192 PAwOBA .385 → .267 (−118)K% 9.9% → 12.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.90%	÷0.976	×1.220	—	—	12.38%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.98%	÷1.026	×0.700	—	×1.022	8.36%
HBP% /PA	5.21%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.73%
Singles /BIP	21.90%	÷0.996	×0.680	×0.997	×1.022	15.25%
Doubles /BIP	8.76%	÷0.997	×0.600	×0.997	×1.022	5.38%
Triples /BIP	2.19%	÷0.959	×0.600	×0.997	×1.022	1.40%
Home runs /BIP	1.46%	÷0.938	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.75%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 99, 2B 99, 3B 92, K 95, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .385 → .267; ISO .154 → .097; BABIP .328 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Derek Bell'91-'01 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,068 PA	7.6	5,068	134	170	264*	322*	414*	-34	-29	11.8	13.5
/162	664	18	22	-4.4	-3.8	1.5	pk7: 15
#2Kole Calhounlast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,963 PA	7.5	4,963	179	33	242	316	418	-54	-33	8.3	9.6
/162	664	24	4	-7.3	-4.4	1.1	pk7: 11
#3Juan Encarnacion'97-'07 * career totals — 10 seasons, 5,095 PA	7.7	5,095	156	127	258*	304*	426*	-35	-21	9.1	9.1
/162	664	20	17	-4.6	-2.7	1.2	pk7: 9
#4Jeff Francoeurlast yr '16 career totals — 11 seasons, 5,633 PA	8.5	5,633	160	54	262	304	417	-60	-26	6.8	9.0
/162	664	19	6	-7.1	-3.1	0.8	pk7: 11
#5Will Venablelast yr '15 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,127 PA	4.7	3,127	81	135	251	317	406	-20	-4	8.9	8.7
/162	664	17	29	-4.2	-0.8	1.9	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	5.6	3,747	123	61	243	308	411	-22	-3	8.9	7.9
/162	664	22	11	-4.0	-0.6	1.6	pk7: 7
#6Leroy Stanton'70-'78 * career totals — 7 seasons, 2,883 PA	4.3	2,883	77	36	245*	314*	430*	-33	-1	6.5	7.8
/162	664	18	8	-7.7	-0.2	1.5	pk7: 9

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Alvarez (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	226/290/363	137	287	5	4	26%	7%	85	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Walker Jenkins 2024 · A	19	53	45→50	53→55	45	257/305/391	134	308	11	11	20%	6%	95	+1.0	245/323/376	131	300	11	17	21%	9%	99	+1.3	248/332/390	141	301	14	20	21%	10%	103	+1.0
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	48→55	50→55	47→50	43	240/295/394	155	317	19	7	30%	7%	93	+0.8	250/308/413	163	357	17	3	33%	7%	103	+1.5	253/318/428	175	356	19	2	32%	8%	108	+1.7
✕Akil Baddoo 2018 · A	19	46→53	42→50	52→55	49	220/298/335	114	290	7	10	25%	9%	80	-0.1	201/274/317	116	305	8	13	34%	9%	68	-1.0	238/319/386	148	309	15	24	26%	11%	100	+0.9
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2023 · A	19	47→57	43→50	49→45	44	228/296/339	111	277	10	9	21%	6%	82	-0.0	253/309/380	127	305	13	7	21%	5%	95	+1.0	266/321/397	132	318	13	6	20%	5%	101	+1.1
✕Cole Young 2023 · A	20	51→52	45	49→50	47	249/304/371	122	299	13	11	21%	7%	91	+0.6	242/328/367	125	291	10	13	19%	10%	99	+1.3	240/330/363	124	285	10	12	18%	10%	97	+1.0
●Oswaldo Arcia 2011 · A	20	47→56	48→60	49→45	39	238/278/390	151	299	15	7	26%	5%	86	+0.3	252/300/431	179	338	19	4	30%	6%	104	+1.6	255/315/456	202	329	24	3	29%	7%	115	+2.1
●David Dahl 2013 · A	19	54→58	46→60	51→55	41	263/297/410	147	316	12	10	21%	4%	97	+1.1	245/276/374	129	313	9	14	24%	4%	80	-0.1	271/322/460	188	349	21	12	27%	6%	118	+2.1
●Colby Rasmus 2007 · A	20	46→54	46→65	54→50	43	228/283/366	137	295	13	16	27%	6%	82	-0.0	231/299/394	163	278	19	14	23%	8%	95	+1.0	243/309/466	223	315	29	3	32%	8%	116	+1.9
✕Fernando Martinez 2007 · A	18	49→59	47→50	47→45	41	245/292/386	141	306	14	9	25%	5%	91	+0.6	255/299/380	125	322	11	8	23%	5%	91	+0.7	250/300/405	155	325	18	1	28%	4%	96	+0.6
✕Tyrone Taylor 2013 · A	19	49→54	43→60	51→55	43	237/286/361	125	297	8	12	23%	6%	82	-0.0	245/290/348	103	287	6	12	16%	5%	80	-0.2	243/299/456	214	281	25	12	23%	5%	111	+1.2
✕Noelvi Marte 2022 · A	20	45→55	48→50	51→55	44	224/289/369	144	298	16	14	29%	8%	86	+0.3	237/299/368	131	306	15	18	26%	7%	88	+0.5	247/296/385	137	310	14	21	24%	5%	91	+0.4
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	215/300/346	131	277	14	9	26%	8%	85	+0.2	217/306/408	191	287	24	6	32%	9%	102	+1.5	269/326/453	184	315	23	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	41→51	46→50	45→40	50	210/283/334	125	261	14	5	25%	9%	76	-0.4	248/309/379	131	301	14	4	21%	8%	95	+0.9	266/327/397	130	316	14	3	20%	8%	104	+1.4
✕Hao-Yu Lee 2023 · A	20	49→51	44→50	48→55	46	237/306/359	122	312	12	12	27%	8%	89	+0.5	247/312/378	131	315	13	16	24%	7%	96	+1.0	253/317/409	156	313	15	15	23%	7%	103	+1.2
✕Jason Martin 2017 · A	21	43→52	47→60	49→50	45	219/279/359	140	286	14	13	28%	8%	79	-0.2	231/278/376	145	308	14	12	28%	6%	82	+0.0	226/292/414	187	279	24	8	28%	8%	94	+0.6
●Bryce Eldridge 2024 · A	19	46→56	45→55	49→40	43	220/288/342	122	335	13	6	36%	9%	79	-0.2	237/305/404	167	340	21	4	34%	8%	99	+1.3	242/318/420	177	338	23	2	33%	9%	108	+1.7
●Max Kepler 2013 · A	20	45→55	44→60	53→50	44	220/281/341	121	278	10	6	24%	7%	76	-0.4	227/285/356	129	280	10	7	22%	7%	80	-0.1	237/320/445	209	250	25	4	17%	10%	115	+2.4
✕Jon Singleton 2011 · A	19	51→54	49→50	44→45	51	255/324/410	155	304	16	7	22%	9%	108	+1.9	237/311/375	138	332	15	5	31%	10%	95	+1.0	203/297/362	160	286	19	4	34%	12%	87	+0.3
●Adael Amador 2022 · A	19	46→56	41→50	45→55	48	223/287/324	101	278	9	11	23%	8%	74	-0.5	249/327/380	131	292	14	17	19%	9%	102	+1.5	244/325/378	134	283	16	23	19%	10%	99	+0.9
✕Héctor Rodríguez 2024 · A	20	48→52	46→50	54→50	41	238/279/378	140	292	12	13	23%	4%	83	+0.1	242/280/378	136	286	14	10	20%	5%	84	+0.1	243/284/388	145	281	17	9	20%	5%	85	+0.2

Kevin Alvarez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps