Kevin AlvarezOF
Fayetteville Woodpeckers
Age 18
L/L
6'3" / 184 lbs
A
H +4%HR -3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 4.3 · 2034
wRC+†67
AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .299 / .367
PA179
HR4
SB5
K%26
BB%8
MLB%4%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
29↗54
PWR
30↗55
SPD
50↘46
FLD
31↗50
EYE
42↗50
trajectory · 10 yrs
4.6peak
2034
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +3.0 | $27M | +$26M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +3.5 | $32M | +$32M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +3.9 | $37M | +$36M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $8M | +4.2 | $41M | +$33M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $15M | +4.3 | $44M | +$29M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $22M | +4.3 | $45M | +$23M |
| Totals | $48M | $227M | +$179M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 192 | 165 | 39 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 29 | 10 | 11 | 5 | .236 | .333 | .352 | .685 | .115 | .272 | 15 | 7 | .294 | 83 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +5 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 18 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 62 | 61 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0 | 3 | 2 | .213 | .226 | .295 | .521 | .082 | .295 | 27 | 2 | .237 | 40 | -4 | -0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 18 | MLB | HOU | 117 | 107 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .224 | .284 | .364 | .649 | .140 | .292 | 26 | 7 | .291 | 81 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +3 | -0.0 |
| TOT | 18 | MLB | HOU | 179 | 168 | 37 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 48 | 1 | 5 | 3 | .220 | .264 | .339 | .603 | .119 | .288 | 27 | 5 | .273 | 67 | -7 | -0 | -0 | -1 | +5 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 19 | MLB 14% | HOU | 272 | 243 | 62 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 62 | 4 | 6 | 2 | .255 | .330 | .424 | .753 | .169 | .304 | 23 | 8 | .327 | 108 | +3 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +8 | 0.8 |
| 2028 | 20 | MLB 31% | HOU | 394 | 351 | 92 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 34 | 87 | 6 | 9 | 3 | .262 | .338 | .433 | .771 | .171 | .310 | 22 | 9 | .339 | 118 | +8 | +1 | -2 | -2 | +11 | 1.6 |
| 2029 | 21 | MLB 51% | HOU | 483 | 429 | 113 | 20 | 4 | 16 | 44 | 104 | 7 | 11 | 3 | .263 | .342 | .441 | .782 | .177 | .311 | 22 | 9 | .348 | 124 | +13 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +14 | 2.4 |
| 2030 | 22 | MLB 73% | HOU | 545 | 480 | 129 | 22 | 5 | 20 | 52 | 115 | 8 | 11 | 3 | .269 | .350 | .460 | .810 | .192 | .311 | 21 | 10 | .355 | 129 | +18 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +15 | 3.0 |
| 2031 | 23 | MLB 93% | HOU | 588 | 516 | 140 | 24 | 5 | 22 | 58 | 121 | 9 | 11 | 3 | .271 | .355 | .465 | .820 | .194 | .311 | 21 | 10 | .361 | 134 | +23 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +17 | 3.5 |
| 2032 | 24 | MLB | HOU | 616 | 540 | 147 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 62 | 125 | 9 | 11 | 3 | .272 | .357 | .470 | .827 | .198 | .311 | 20 | 10 | .365 | 137 | +26 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +17 | 3.9 |
| 2033 | 25 | MLB | HOU | 631 | 551 | 152 | 26 | 6 | 25 | 65 | 127 | 10 | 11 | 3 | .276 | .363 | .481 | .844 | .205 | .312 | 20 | 10 | .368 | 140 | +28 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +18 | 4.2 |
| 2034 | 26 | MLB | HOU | 638 | 556 | 153 | 26 | 6 | 25 | 67 | 128 | 10 | 11 | 3 | .275 | .363 | .478 | .842 | .203 | .313 | 20 | 11 | .370 | 141 | +30 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +18 | 4.3 |
| 2035 | 27 | MLB | HOU | 638 | 555 | 152 | 26 | 5 | 25 | 68 | 129 | 10 | 11 | 3 | .274 | .363 | .474 | .837 | .200 | .313 | 20 | 11 | .370 | 141 | +30 | +1 | -2 | -4 | +18 | 4.3 |
| 2036 | 28 | MLB | HOU | 633 | 550 | 151 | 26 | 5 | 25 | 68 | 129 | 10 | 10 | 2 | .275 | .365 | .476 | .841 | .202 | .313 | 20 | 11 | .369 | 140 | +29 | +1 | -3 | -4 | +18 | 4.2 |
| 2037 | 29 | MLB | HOU | 623 | 542 | 147 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 67 | 128 | 9 | 10 | 2 | .271 | .361 | .469 | .829 | .197 | .312 | 21 | 11 | .367 | 139 | +27 | +1 | -4 | -4 | +18 | 3.9 |
| 2038 | 30 | MLB | HOU | 612 | 532 | 143 | 24 | 5 | 23 | 66 | 128 | 9 | 9 | 2 | .269 | .359 | .462 | .822 | .194 | .311 | 21 | 11 | .364 | 136 | +25 | +1 | -4 | -4 | +17 | 3.6 |
| 2039 | 31 | MLB | HOU | 598 | 520 | 138 | 23 | 5 | 22 | 64 | 128 | 9 | 8 | 1 | .265 | .356 | .456 | .812 | .190 | .310 | 21 | 11 | .360 | 134 | +23 | +1 | -5 | -4 | +17 | 3.3 |
| 2040 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 579 | 504 | 133 | 22 | 5 | 21 | 62 | 127 | 8 | 7 | 0 | .264 | .354 | .452 | .806 | .188 | .309 | 22 | 11 | .355 | 130 | +20 | +1 | -6 | -3 | +16 | 2.9 |
| 2041 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 549 | 478 | 123 | 20 | 4 | 19 | 58 | 124 | 8 | 7 | 0 | .257 | .347 | .435 | .783 | .178 | .308 | 23 | 11 | .350 | 126 | +16 | +1 | -6 | -3 | +16 | 2.4 |
| 2042 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 502 | 437 | 111 | 18 | 4 | 17 | 53 | 118 | 7 | 6 | 0 | .254 | .344 | .430 | .774 | .176 | .307 | 24 | 11 | .343 | 121 | +12 | +1 | -7 | -3 | +14 | 1.8 |
| 2043 | 35 | MLB | HOU | 445 | 389 | 95 | 15 | 3 | 14 | 47 | 109 | 6 | 6 | 0 | .244 | .335 | .406 | .741 | .162 | .305 | 24 | 11 | .335 | 115 | +7 | +1 | -7 | -3 | +13 | 1.1 |
| 2044 | 36 | MLB | HOU | 384 | 336 | 81 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 98 | 5 | 5 | 0 | .241 | .331 | .396 | .727 | .155 | .303 | 26 | 10 | .326 | 108 | +3 | +1 | -8 | -2 | +11 | 0.5 |
| 2045 | 37 | MLB | HOU | 319 | 280 | 65 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 84 | 4 | 5 | 0 | .232 | .320 | .379 | .698 | .146 | .300 | 26 | 10 | .316 | 100 | +0 | +1 | -8 | -2 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2046 | 38 | MLB | HOU | 249 | 219 | 49 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 25 | 68 | 3 | 3 | 0 | .224 | .312 | .356 | .668 | .132 | .295 | 27 | 10 | .305 | 92 | -2 | +1 | -9 | -1 | +7 | -0.5 |
| 2047 | 39 | MLB | HOU | 175 | 154 | 34 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 49 | 2 | 2 | 0 | .221 | .306 | .344 | .651 | .123 | .289 | 28 | 10 | .294 | 83 | -3 | +0 | -9 | -1 | +5 | -0.8 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 10782 | 9434 | 2473 | 417 | 90 | 377 | 1094 | 2348 | 164 | 183 | 39 | .262 | .349 | .445 | .794 | .183 | .310 | 22 | 10 | .351 | 127 | +329 | +21 | -95 | -65 | +305 | 50.6 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 569 | 149 | 25 | 5 | 23 | 66 | 142 | 10 | 11 | 2 | .262 | .349 | .445 | .793 | .183 | .310 | 22 | 10 | .351 | 127 | +20 | +1 | -6 | -4 | +18 | 3.1 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17 | ROK | DSL Astros Blue | 192 | 156 | 47 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 23 | 19 | 10 | 11 | 5 | .301 | .423 | .455 | .878 | .154 | .328 | 10 | 12 | .390 | 157 | +12 | +0 | — | — | +5 | 1.8 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Kevin Alvarez (OGILVIE) | 18 | 29→54 | 30→55 | 50→46 | 50 | .228/.299/.367 | .139 | .292 | 4 | 3 | 26% | 8% | 88 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
★Corey Seager 2013 · A |
19 | 46→56 | 46→65 | 51→45 | 44 | .231/.283/.361 | .130 | .288 | 14 | 9 | 25% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .250/.299/.420 | .170 | .314 | 19 | 7 | 26% | 6% | 101 | +1.8 | .291/.353/.484 | .193 | .337 | 22 | 4 | 20% | 8% | 135 | +4.6 |
|
★Rafael Devers 2015 · A |
18 | 48→58 | 43→65 | 51→45 | 45 | .232/.290/.349 | .116 | .298 | 9 | 6 | 25% | 7% | 78 | +0.2 | .242/.281/.377 | .135 | .300 | 13 | 6 | 23% | 5% | 82 | +0.5 | .277/.351/.516 | .240 | .303 | 32 | 4 | 20% | 9% | 138 | +4.7 |
|
★Jason Heyward 2008 · A |
18 | 46→56 | 41→55 | 47→50 | 41 | .220/.274/.320 | .100 | .304 | 7 | 7 | 29% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .259/.317/.406 | .147 | .307 | 14 | 9 | 20% | 7% | 105 | +2.1 | .255/.348/.438 | .183 | .301 | 21 | 14 | 22% | 12% | 121 | +3.1 |
|
●Jesse Winker 2013 · A |
19 | 51→61 | 41→55 | 45 | 46 | .240/.306/.344 | .104 | .324 | 8 | 4 | 27% | 8% | 84 | +0.6 | .238/.310/.370 | .132 | .296 | 13 | 5 | 23% | 9% | 92 | +1.2 | .272/.369/.498 | .227 | .291 | 28 | 1 | 17% | 11% | 143 | +2.8 |
|
★Juan Soto 2017 · A |
18 | 50→60 | 43→65 | 50 | 43 | .245/.286/.361 | .116 | .300 | 10 | 8 | 22% | 6% | 79 | +0.3 | .273/.347/.454 | .181 | .313 | 21 | 7 | 19% | 10% | 129 | +3.7 | .270/.405/.529 | .260 | .284 | 33 | 16 | 18% | 18% | 163 | +7.2 |
|
★Austin Meadows 2014 · A |
19 | 45→55 | 43→65 | 49→55 | 43 | .214/.282/.336 | .122 | .308 | 10 | 6 | 32% | 8% | 72 | -0.2 | .242/.292/.362 | .120 | .310 | 9 | 10 | 24% | 6% | 82 | +0.5 | .255/.336/.495 | .240 | .289 | 30 | 8 | 23% | 10% | 129 | +2.7 |
|
★Justin Upton 2007 · A |
19 | 44→54 | 44→65 | 46→55 | 45 | .218/.276/.333 | .115 | .274 | 11 | 10 | 25% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .249/.319/.424 | .175 | .316 | 18 | 12 | 26% | 9% | 110 | +2.4 | .279/.359/.480 | .201 | .337 | 22 | 19 | 23% | 10% | 134 | +4.2 |
|
●José A. Martínez 2007 · A |
19 | 46→56 | 41→55 | 46→50 | 47 | .220/.288/.317 | .096 | .280 | 9 | 7 | 24% | 8% | 69 | -0.4 | .224/.275/.321 | .097 | .293 | 9 | 10 | 26% | 6% | 64 | -0.8 | .296/.363/.466 | .170 | .344 | 21 | 4 | 19% | 9% | 137 | +3.1 |
|
★Xander Bogaerts 2012 · A |
19 | 43→53 | 49→60 | 42→55 | 41 | .222/.273/.365 | .143 | .281 | 17 | 4 | 27% | 6% | 76 | +0.0 | .244/.297/.396 | .152 | .312 | 17 | 5 | 26% | 6% | 94 | +1.3 | .293/.370/.507 | .214 | .325 | 27 | 7 | 18% | 10% | 148 | +4.3 |
|
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A |
19 | 43→53 | 46→50 | 46→40 | 47 | .216/.283/.346 | .130 | .273 | 14 | 5 | 26% | 8% | 75 | -0.0 | .241/.299/.377 | .136 | .292 | 16 | 4 | 22% | 7% | 90 | +1.0 | .259/.317/.396 | .137 | .305 | 16 | 3 | 20% | 7% | 100 | +1.5 |
|
●Jackson Chourio 2022 · A |
18 | 44→54 | 42→55 | 49→55 | 45 | .217/.279/.319 | .102 | .277 | 10 | 10 | 25% | 7% | 66 | -0.6 | .233/.280/.389 | .156 | .311 | 18 | 19 | 30% | 6% | 85 | +0.7 | .261/.307/.430 | .168 | .314 | 19 | 26 | 23% | 6% | 101 | +1.8 |
|
●Teoscar Hernández 2012 · A |
19 | 41→51 | 44→65 | 54→55 | 44 | .206/.265/.330 | .124 | .258 | 11 | 13 | 24% | 7% | 63 | -0.9 | .204/.256/.328 | .124 | .293 | 11 | 14 | 33% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .276/.326/.479 | .204 | .351 | 27 | 8 | 28% | 6% | 126 | +3.6 |
|
★Austin Riley 2016 · A |
19 | 44→54 | 49→65 | 45→40 | 38 | .218/.279/.361 | .143 | .320 | 17 | 5 | 36% | 6% | 78 | +0.2 | .214/.260/.366 | .152 | .309 | 18 | 3 | 36% | 5% | 71 | -0.3 | .273/.345/.498 | .224 | .325 | 30 | 1 | 25% | 8% | 136 | +4.9 |
|
●Junior Caminero 2022 · A |
19 | 44→52 | 49→65 | 49→45 | 45 | .226/.283/.369 | .143 | .276 | 17 | 6 | 25% | 7% | 81 | +0.4 | .250/.300/.421 | .171 | .300 | 23 | 7 | 24% | 6% | 102 | +1.8 | .258/.305/.479 | .221 | .284 | 33 | 5 | 22% | 6% | 116 | +2.6 |
|
●Trevor Story 2012 · A |
19 | 42→52 | 43→65 | 54→55 | 44 | .209/.272/.318 | .108 | .282 | 10 | 12 | 29% | 7% | 63 | -0.8 | .193/.253/.326 | .133 | .287 | 13 | 12 | 36% | 7% | 57 | -1.2 | .270/.336/.500 | .231 | .327 | 29 | 25 | 26% | 8% | 134 | +3.6 |
|
✕Samuel Basallo 2023 · A |
18 | 41→49 | 44→55 | 48→45 | 41 | .207/.263/.315 | .109 | .281 | 12 | 4 | 30% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .234/.289/.391 | .157 | .301 | 19 | 7 | 28% | 7% | 89 | +1.0 | .233/.291/.410 | .177 | .289 | 23 | 6 | 27% | 7% | 93 | +1.0 |
|
●Miguel Sanó 2011 · A |
18 | 44→52 | 43→70 | 45 | 37 | .212/.262/.323 | .112 | .317 | 11 | 6 | 35% | 6% | 59 | -1.1 | .211/.275/.398 | .187 | .296 | 23 | 6 | 35% | 7% | 85 | +0.7 | .243/.334/.470 | .227 | .340 | 31 | 2 | 35% | 11% | 124 | +3.1 |
|
●Anthony Santander 2013 · A |
18 | 45→49 | 42→65 | 47→45 | 39 | .217/.275/.326 | .110 | .305 | 9 | 8 | 31% | 6% | 66 | -0.6 | .201/.254/.302 | .101 | .269 | 9 | 7 | 27% | 5% | 51 | -1.7 | .242/.317/.473 | .231 | .257 | 31 | 2 | 20% | 9% | 120 | +3.4 |
|
✕Fernando Martinez 2007 · A |
18 | 46→55 | 46→50 | 47→45 | 40 | .232/.279/.368 | .136 | .289 | 14 | 9 | 24% | 5% | 79 | +0.3 | .244/.287/.366 | .122 | .310 | 11 | 8 | 24% | 5% | 81 | +0.4 | .243/.291/.392 | .149 | .314 | 17 | 1 | 27% | 4% | 87 | +0.5 |
|
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A |
19 | 42→50 | 45→60 | 43→30 | 45 | .215/.274/.337 | .122 | .275 | 14 | 3 | 27% | 7% | 69 | -0.4 | .206/.251/.346 | .140 | .279 | 17 | 2 | 32% | 5% | 62 | -0.9 | .246/.306/.451 | .204 | .321 | 28 | 0 | 31% | 7% | 109 | +2.0 |