Kevin Alvarez — OGILVIE

Kevin AlvarezOF Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 18 L/L 6'3" / 184 lbs A HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION286 act + 190 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†82

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .281 / .359

PA190

HR4

SB5

K%26

BB%5

BABIP291

ISO131

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 54 / POW 55

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT54

scouting grade only

POWER55

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED46

scouting grade only

DEFENSE50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.8	$11M	+$10M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.0	$11M	+$10M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+2.2	$11M	+$11M
2033	Arb-1	$5M	+2.3	$11M	+$9M
2034	Arb-2	$8M	+2.4	$10M	+$7M
2035	Arb-3	$12M	+2.4	$10M	+$5M
Totals		$27M		$64M	+$52M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	165	39	9	2	2	14	29	10	11	5	236	333	352	685	115	272	15	7	295	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	156	47	12	3	2	23	19	10	11	5	301	423	455	878	154	328	10	12	390	157	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	A	HOU	—	286	266	62	16	2	6	13	75	4	11	8	233	279	376	655	143	298	26	5	279	72	-9	-1	+0	-2	+8	-0.4
YTD	18	A	HOU	—	286	258	69	19	2	7	21	53	4	11	8	267	332	438	770	171	308	19	7	339	117	+6	-1	+0	-2	+8	1.1
ROS	18	A	HOU	0%	190	175	40	9	1	4	10	49	3	5	3	228	281	359	640	131	295	26	5	293	82	-4	-0	-0	-1	+5	-0.0
ROS	18	MLB	HOU	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		298	—	—	286	77	—	—	-0	-0	—	—
FULL	18	A	HOU	—	286	267	62	16	2	6	13	75	4	11	8	232	279	375	654	142	296	26	5	279	72	-9	-1	+0	-2	+8	-0.4
TOT	18	A	HOU	—	476	441	102	25	3	10	23	124	7	16	11	231	280	369	649	138	295	26	5	285	76	-13	-1	-0	-3	+14	-0.4
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	HOU	34%	526	482	115	24	3	14	31	130	8	10	5	239	296	388	684	149	295	25	6	304	91	-5	+0	-1	-3	+15	0.5
2028	20	MLB	HOU	48%	540	492	120	25	3	16	34	130	9	10	5	244	305	404	709	161	297	24	6	315	99	-1	+0	-1	-3	+15	1.0
2029	21	MLB	HOU	54%	553	503	124	25	3	18	36	131	9	10	5	247	308	416	724	169	298	24	7	322	105	+3	+0	-1	-3	+16	1.4
2030	22	MLB	HOU	57%	594	539	135	27	4	20	40	139	10	10	5	250	314	427	741	176	299	23	7	327	108	+6	+0	-1	-4	+17	1.8
2031	23	MLB	HOU	58%	620	563	143	29	4	22	42	143	10	11	6	254	317	437	754	183	299	23	7	331	111	+8	-0	-2	-4	+18	2.0
2032	24	MLB	HOU	57%	637	578	148	30	4	23	43	146	11	11	6	256	320	441	761	185	300	23	7	333	113	+9	-0	-2	-4	+18	2.2
2033	25	MLB	HOU	57%	642	582	150	30	4	24	44	147	11	11	6	258	322	447	769	189	300	23	7	335	114	+10	-0	-2	-4	+18	2.3
2034	26	MLB	HOU	57%	644	584	150	30	4	24	44	147	11	11	6	257	321	445	766	188	300	23	7	335	115	+11	-0	-2	-4	+18	2.4
2035	27	MLB	HOU	55%	641	580	149	30	4	24	45	147	11	11	6	257	322	447	769	190	300	23	7	335	115	+11	-0	-2	-4	+18	2.4
2036	28	MLB	HOU	55%	633	572	146	29	4	23	45	146	11	10	5	255	322	441	762	185	300	23	7	334	114	+10	+0	-2	-4	+18	2.2
2037	29	MLB	HOU	53%	622	563	141	28	3	22	44	145	10	10	5	250	316	428	744	178	299	23	7	332	112	+9	+0	-3	-4	+18	2.0
2038	30	MLB	HOU	53%	610	551	139	28	3	22	44	143	10	9	5	252	319	434	753	181	298	23	7	329	110	+7	-0	-4	-4	+17	1.7
2039	31	MLB	HOU	57%	596	539	134	27	3	21	42	142	10	9	5	249	315	427	741	178	295	24	7	325	107	+5	-0	-4	-4	+17	1.4
2040	32	MLB	HOU	54%	577	522	127	25	3	19	41	140	9	8	4	243	309	412	721	169	292	24	7	320	103	+2	+0	-5	-3	+16	1.0
2041	33	MLB	HOU	58%	547	494	118	22	3	18	39	135	9	7	4	239	306	405	711	166	288	25	7	312	97	-2	-0	-6	-3	+15	0.5
2027	19	MLB	HOU	34%	181	165	40	9	1	5	11	45	3	3	2	242	302	400	702	158	298	25	6	297	85	-3	-0	-0	-1	+5	0.0
2028	20	MLB	HOU	48%	262	240	59	12	2	8	16	63	4	5	2	246	304	412	716	167	300	24	6	307	93	-2	+0	-1	-2	+7	0.3
2029	21	MLB	HOU	54%	300	272	69	14	2	10	20	71	5	5	3	254	316	430	747	176	301	24	7	314	98	-1	-0	-1	-2	+8	0.5
2030	22	MLB	HOU	57%	336	305	78	16	2	12	22	78	6	6	3	256	318	439	758	184	302	23	7	319	102	+1	+0	-1	-2	+10	0.8
2031	23	MLB	HOU	58%	357	324	83	17	2	13	24	82	6	6	3	256	319	441	761	185	303	23	7	323	105	+2	+0	-1	-2	+10	0.9
2032	24	MLB	HOU	57%	363	329	85	17	2	14	25	83	6	6	3	258	322	450	772	191	303	23	7	325	107	+3	+0	-1	-2	+10	1.0
2033	25	MLB	HOU	57%	364	330	85	17	2	14	25	83	6	6	3	258	321	448	770	191	304	23	7	327	108	+3	+0	-1	-2	+10	1.1
2034	26	MLB	HOU	57%	364	330	85	17	2	14	25	83	6	6	3	258	321	448	770	191	303	23	7	327	108	+3	+0	-1	-2	+10	1.1
2035	27	MLB	HOU	55%	356	322	84	17	2	14	25	82	6	6	3	261	326	457	782	196	303	23	7	327	108	+3	+0	-1	-2	+10	1.1
2036	28	MLB	HOU	55%	348	314	81	16	2	13	25	80	6	6	3	258	325	446	770	188	303	23	7	326	108	+3	+0	-1	-2	+10	1.0
2037	29	MLB	HOU	53%	333	300	77	16	2	12	24	77	6	5	3	257	324	443	768	187	302	23	7	324	106	+2	-0	-2	-2	+9	0.8
2038	30	MLB	HOU	53%	321	290	74	15	2	12	23	76	5	5	3	255	321	445	766	190	301	24	7	322	104	+2	-0	-2	-2	+9	0.7
2039	31	MLB	HOU	57%	337	305	76	15	2	12	24	80	5	5	3	249	314	430	744	180	298	24	7	317	101	+0	-0	-2	-2	+10	0.5
2040	32	MLB	HOU	54%	314	284	71	14	2	11	22	76	5	4	2	250	315	430	745	180	295	24	7	312	97	-1	+0	-3	-2	+9	0.3
2041	33	MLB	HOU	58%	316	286	69	13	2	11	22	78	5	4	2	241	307	416	723	175	291	25	7	304	91	-3	+0	-3	-2	+9	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4852	4397	1116	225	29	175	333	1137	80	78	41	254	318	438	756	184	302	23	7	319	102	+13	-1	-20	-29	+137	10.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	149	30	4	23	45	152	11	10	5	253	318	435	753	182	301	23	7	319	102	+2	+0	-3	-4	+18	1.4
Career	—			—	9364	8484	2118	427	55	316	638	2189	162	164	86	250	314	425	739	175	299	23	7	325	107	+74	-2	-38	-56	+265	24.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	589	148	30	4	22	44	152	11	11	6	251	315	428	743	177	301	23	7	325	107	+5	-0	-3	-4	+18	1.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Astros Blue	—	192	156	47	12	3	2	23	19	10	11	5	301	423	455	878	154	328	10	12	390	157	+12	+0	—	—	+5	1.8

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1José Cruz Jr.last yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,179 PA	9	4,179	153	81	247	336	445	-35	-7	17.4	17.2
	/162	664	24	13	247	336	445	-5.6	-1.1	2.8	pk7: 17
#2Colby Rasmuslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,070 PA	9	4,070	165	35	242	311	438	-0	+8	16.7	16.2
	/162	664	27	6	242	311	438	-0.0	+1.3	2.7	pk7: 16
#3Jacque Joneslast yr '08 career totals — 9 seasons, 4,646 PA	9	4,646	156	79	276	326	448	-35	-26	15.7	15.9
	/162	664	22	11	276	326	448	-5.0	-3.8	2.3	pk7: 16
#4Eric Byrneslast yr '09 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,440 PA	8	3,440	106	125	260	321	441	-21	+3	14.9	15.2
	/162	664	20	24	260	321	441	-4.1	+0.6	2.9	pk7: 16
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	5,117	175	85	250	311	426	-31	+0	15.1	12.2
	/162	664	23	11	250	311	426	-4.0	+0.0	2.0	pk7: 9
#5Raul Mondesilast yr '05 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,604 PA	6	2,604	108	89	251	326	456	-20	-6	10.8	10.8
	/162	664	28	23	251	326	456	-5.1	-1.5	2.7	pk7: 11
#6Tony Batistalast yr '07 career totals — 7 seasons, 3,601 PA	7	3,601	162	33	244	291	445	-9	-1	10.4	10.4
	/162	664	30	6	244	291	445	-1.6	-0.2	1.9	pk7: 10

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Kevin Alvarez (OGILVIE)	18	37→54	40→55	50→46	50	231/280/369	138	295	10	16	26%	5%	76	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Fernando Martinez 2007 · A	18	48→54	46→50	47→45	40	237/284/373	136	297	13	9	25%	5%	82	+0.5	243/286/366	123	308	11	8	24%	5%	81	+0.4	243/290/390	147	314	17	1	27%	4%	87	+0.5
●Jackson Chourio 2022 · A	18	44→54	42→60	48→55	45	217/278/318	101	276	10	10	25%	7%	66	-0.6	233/279/390	157	315	18	19	31%	6%	85	+0.7	273/321/471	198	320	23	21	22%	6%	120	+2.5
●Esteury Ruiz 2017 · A	18	46→56	43→50	47→70	43	225/273/343	119	277	9	12	22%	5%	69	-0.4	209/256/323	114	313	8	25	34%	5%	56	-1.3	268/342/410	142	331	14	74	22%	7%	114	+1.8
●Andy Pages 2021 · A	20	43→53	46→60	46→50	46	214/297/344	130	275	14	9	26%	8%	82	+0.5	219/304/418	199	291	25	6	32%	9%	104	+2.0	270/324/464	194	313	25	10	22%	6%	121	+2.8
●Travis Snider 2007 · A	19	47→53	50→60	47→50	43	237/292/389	152	313	18	7	30%	7%	90	+1.0	242/299/403	161	346	17	3	33%	7%	96	+1.5	244/307/431	187	323	23	5	30%	8%	103	+1.7
●Jesús Sánchez 2017 · A	19	48→54	44→60	49→50	39	236/267/361	124	294	10	6	24%	4%	70	-0.3	241/274/368	127	313	13	5	26%	4%	76	+0.1	256/323/468	211	319	26	4	27%	8%	119	+2.3
●Oscar Taveras 2011 · A	19	44→54	42→55	49→45	41	217/260/327	110	271	8	9	23%	5%	59	-1.1	269/307/417	148	311	13	7	17%	5%	102	+1.9	290/325/453	164	324	14	7	15%	4%	120	+1.8
●Gabriel Gonzalez 2023 · A	19	46→56	45→50	49→45	43	227/292/347	120	278	12	9	23%	5%	80	+0.4	244/297/370	126	294	14	7	21%	5%	88	+0.9	253/307/382	129	303	14	6	21%	5%	91	+0.9
✕Héctor Rodríguez 2022 · A	18	46→50	43→50	43→50	44	224/277/336	112	272	10	9	22%	6%	69	-0.4	228/267/352	124	277	10	13	21%	4%	69	-0.4	238/278/383	145	274	17	10	20%	5%	79	+0.2
●Moisés Ballesteros 2023 · A	19	43→53	47→50	45→40	47	217/283/352	135	277	15	5	27%	8%	76	+0.1	243/301/378	135	296	16	4	23%	7%	91	+1.1	266/326/405	139	311	16	3	19%	8%	106	+1.6
●Jason Heyward 2008 · A	18	46→56	41→55	47→50	41	220/273/322	102	303	7	7	29%	6%	64	-0.8	266/328/415	149	317	14	9	20%	8%	111	+2.5	259/351/444	185	308	20	14	22%	12%	125	+3.3
✕Ronny Ugarte 2023 · A	18	41	43→50	47→40	43	202/274/320	118	277	9	6	29%	7%	65	-0.7	227/287/334	107	295	8	5	24%	7%	73	-0.1	248/308/368	120	321	11	2	25%	7%	88	+0.3
●Jay Bruce 2007 · A	20	45→54	48→65	47→50	40	225/272/380	155	303	15	11	30%	6%	79	+0.3	253/302/451	198	320	23	9	27%	6%	111	+2.5	254/334/472	219	297	28	7	24%	10%	119	+3.1
★Austin Meadows 2014 · A	19	44→54	44→65	49→55	43	213/282/337	124	306	10	6	32%	8%	72	-0.2	245/294/368	123	312	10	11	23%	6%	85	+0.7	253/333/497	244	285	30	8	23%	10%	130	+2.8
●Oswaldo Arcia 2011 · A	20	48→51	49→60	49→45	39	240/279/394	153	303	15	7	26%	4%	85	+0.7	244/291/427	183	329	20	4	31%	6%	100	+1.7	247/307/454	207	317	26	3	30%	7%	110	+2.1
●Anthony Santander 2013 · A	18	45→47	42→60	47→45	39	216/275/327	111	304	9	9	31%	5%	66	-0.6	197/250/297	100	270	8	7	29%	5%	48	-1.9	233/308/449	216	247	30	2	20%	9%	110	+2.7
●Mark Vientos 2019 · A	19	42→49	46→60	43→30	45	215/275/340	125	273	14	3	26%	7%	70	-0.3	206/250/349	143	284	18	2	33%	5%	62	-0.9	245/305/447	202	325	28	0	32%	7%	109	+2.0
●Avisaíl García 2009 · A	18	45→55	43→60	45→50	40	223/258/328	105	272	10	7	23%	4%	59	-1.1	217/245/288	71	312	5	10	31%	3%	42	-2.3	283/333/467	184	340	23	7	23%	6%	123	+2.8
●David Dahl 2013 · A	19	53→54	46→55	51→55	41	259/293/403	145	311	11	10	21%	4%	93	+1.3	233/264/354	121	301	9	14	25%	4%	68	-0.5	250/303/422	172	323	18	12	27%	7%	99	+1.3
●Ryan McMahon 2014 · A	19	46→56	48→55	42→45	40	227/283/376	149	325	15	6	34%	7%	83	+0.6	217/273/363	146	324	14	6	35%	6%	76	+0.0	247/298/412	164	344	17	8	31%	6%	96	+1.3