Lucas Spence

OF Sugar Land Space Cowboys
Age 24 L/L 6'0" / 195 lbs AAA HR -6% Svc 0.128 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAA40-MANROOKIEPre-ArbFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202421AHOU98.200/.347/.2881451—.176/.286/.259
202522AA/A+/AHOU509.244/.370/.403102768—.199/.293/.313
202623AAA/AAHOU416.241/.355/.424121784—.214/.304/.360
202623MLBHOU63.218/.317/.50940130-0.0
2027PROJ45% MLB24MLBHOU70.222/.310/.37523930.1
2028PROJ59% MLB25MLBHOU282.224/.312/.379711940.5
2029PROJ65% MLB26MLBHOU347.225/.313/.381914950.6
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.0  ·  Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.128First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$4M2032Arb-3$5M
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AAA
BB%81
Chase%69
Max EV56
Z-Con%54
Whiff%33
K%31
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.6 / P90 10, comp-based) · star 4% · didn't stick 78%
CompsRyan Kalish (age 24) · Dustin Harris (age 25) · Akil Baddoo (age 24)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†93
AVG/OBP/SLG.222 / .310 / .375
PA70
HR2
K%27
BB%9
BABIP291
ISO177
MLB%45%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.3 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-1BATRUN: +1.1 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: +0.4 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: -0.9 runs (Positional adjustment)-1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: +0.30+0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.10.50.60.60.40.327282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
ToolsStatcast %ile · 2026
CONTACT
xAVG
100.197
POWER
Barrel%
7612.1
Avg EV
9091.9
SPEED
Sprint
7628.5
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2026
Service   0.128 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.1$0.5M+$0.0M (cut)
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.5$2M+$1M
2029Pre-Arb$0.8M+0.6$2M+$1M
2030Arb-1$3M+0.6$2M+$0.0M (cut)
2031Arb-2$4M+0.4$1M+$0.0M (cut)
2032Arb-3$5M+0.3$0.8M+$0.0M (cut)
Totals $2M $8M +$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202421 AFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9880 16021 15223 42 200347287634 87263 2215 304 51 — — — — — —
202522 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 138111 25804 25341 60 225372405778 180284 2518 352 91 — — — — — —
202522 A+Asheville Tourists — 270234 561826 30705 104 239338410749 171314 2611 335 44 — — — — — —
202522 AFayetteville Woodpeckers — 10177 22510 18185 111 286450377827 91373 1818 384 99 — — — — — —
202623 MLBHouston Astros — 6355 12214 7221 02 218317509827 291276 3511 360 130 +2 -1 +0 -3 +1 -0.0
202623 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys — 214178 38828 31562 70 213336416752 202256 2614 333 73 — — — — — —
202623 AACorpus Christi Hooks — 202171 461034 194110 102 269375433808 164328 209 361 96 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 6355 12214 7221 02 218317509827 291276 3511 360 129 +2 -1 +0 -3 +1 -0.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202421 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9885 15021 10293 42 176286259545 82252 3010 244 51 — — — — — —
202522 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 138117 24803 19401 60 205321350672 145274 2914 302 91 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLEAsheville Tourists — 270246 431224 18945 104 175245289534 114255 357 233 44 — — — — — —
202522 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 10183 21410 12255 111 253380325705 72348 2512 314 99 — — — — — —
202623 MLB MLEHouston Astros — 6355 12214 7221 02 218317509827 291276 3511 360 130 +2 -1 +0 -3 +1 -0.0
202623 AAA MLESugar Land Space Cowboys — 214187 35726 22672 70 187280342622 155242 3110 276 73 — — — — — —
202623 AA MLECorpus Christi Hooks — 202177 43933 135010 102 243330379709 136304 256 310 96 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9885 15021 10293 42 176286259545 82255 3010 244 51 — — — — — —
202421 A RAWFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9880 16021 15223 42 200347287634 87263 2215 304 51 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 509446 882437 4915911 275 197292312604 114287 3110 268 67 — — — — — —
202522 A+ RAW3 teams — 509422 10331310 7312211 275 244370403772 159318 2414 349 67 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE3 teams — 479419 8918613 4213913 174 212304377681 165279 299 301 90 — — — — — —
202623 AAA RAW3 teams — 479404 9620616 5711913 174 238350436786 198292 2512 348 90 — — — — — —
202421 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9885 15021 10293 42 176286259545 82252 3010 244 51 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 509444 882437 4915911 275 198292313606 115279 3110 268 67 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE3 teams — 479421 8918613 4213913 174 211304375679 164273 299 301 90 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202421 A MLEFayetteville Woodpeckers — 9885 15021 10293 42 176286259545 82252 3010 244 51 — — — — — —
202522 A+ MLE3 teams — 509444 882437 4915911 275 198292313606 115279 3110 268 67 — — — — — —
202623 AAA MLE3 teams — 479421 8918613 4213913 174 211304375679 164273 299 301 90 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202724 MLB MLEHOU 45% 380334 7315310 351058 153 219308372680 153286 289 305 93 -3 +2 +1 -2 +8 0.3
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202724 MLB CTXHOU 45% 7062 14312 6192 31 222310375686 153291 279 308 93 -1 +0 +0 -0 +2 0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202825 MLB MLEHOU 59% 480423 9419413 4413210 194 221310376686 155287 289 308 94 -3 +2 +1 -3 +10 0.8
202926 MLB MLEHOU 65% 533468 10521514 4914511 214 222310378688 155287 279 308 95 -3 +3 +1 -3 +12 0.9
203027 MLB MLEHOU 67% 518456 10120414 4714010 204 223310376686 154286 279 308 94 -3 +2 +1 -3 +11 0.9
203128 MLB MLEHOU 67% 505444 9920413 4613610 174 222308373682 151286 279 306 93 -4 +2 +1 -3 +11 0.6
203229 MLB MLEHOU 66% 490434 9619413 441339 143 221306369675 148284 279 303 91 -5 +2 -0 -3 +11 0.4
203330 MLB MLEHOU 65% 321283 611228 29886 72 217302361663 143282 279 298 88 -5 +1 -1 -2 +7 -0.0
202825 MLB CTXHOU 59% 282248 561237 26776 112 224312379691 155291 279 310 94 -2 +1 +1 -2 +6 0.5
202926 MLB CTXHOU 65% 347305 681439 32947 143 225313381693 155291 279 311 95 -2 +2 +1 -2 +8 0.6
203027 MLB CTXHOU 67% 345303 681439 32937 133 225312379692 154291 279 310 94 -2 +1 +1 -2 +7 0.6
203128 MLB CTXHOU 67% 339298 681439 31927 113 224311376687 152290 279 308 93 -3 +1 +0 -2 +7 0.4
203229 MLB CTXHOU 66% 323285 641338 29876 92 223308372680 149289 279 305 91 -3 +1 -0 -2 +7 0.3
203330 MLB CTXHOU 65% 210185 41825 19574 51 220305364668 144287 279 301 88 -3 +1 -1 -1 +5 0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 19091679 377771851 17652238 6316 225312383695 158292 279 310 89 -13 +6 +2 -14 +41 2.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650572 12826617 6017813 215 224312379691 156292 279 310 89 -4 +2 +1 -5 +14 0.8
Career— MLE — 40883595 77815935100 374114486 15233 216305364669 147286 289 299 89 -23 +11 +3 -21 +66 3.8
/ 162G— MLE — 650572 12425616 5918214 245 217306365671 149286 289 299 89 -5 +2 +1 -4 +14 0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 214 PAwOBA .330 → .276 (−54)K% 26.2% → 31.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA26.17%÷1.000×1.200——31.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.49%÷1.000×0.690—×1.05010.50%
HBP% /PA0.93%—×0.940—×1.0500.92%
Singles /BIP16.39%÷1.000×0.930×1.012×1.05016.20%
Doubles /BIP6.56%÷1.000×0.830×1.012×1.0505.78%
Triples /BIP1.64%÷1.000×0.970×1.012×1.0501.69%
Home runs /BIP6.56%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0504.82%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 27.2 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .330 → .276; ISO .202 → .162; BABIP .256 → .242. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 202 PAwOBA .353 → .310 (−44)K% 20.3% → 24.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.30%÷1.000×1.220——24.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.91%÷1.000×0.700—×1.0276.41%
HBP% /PA4.95%—×0.870—×1.0274.42%
Singles /BIP22.31%÷1.000×0.920×1.007×1.02721.22%
Doubles /BIP7.69%÷1.000×0.840×1.007×1.0276.68%
Triples /BIP2.31%÷1.000×0.940×1.007×1.0272.24%
Home runs /BIP3.08%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0272.53%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.007.

Result: wOBA .353 → .310; ISO .164 → .143; BABIP .328 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 A+Asheville Tourists · 270 PAwOBA .328 → .233 (−96)K% 25.9% → 34.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA25.93%÷0.977×1.310——34.76%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.11%÷1.016×0.600—×1.0126.64%
HBP% /PA1.85%—×0.770—×1.0121.44%
Singles /BIP18.29%÷0.984×0.870×0.985×1.01216.11%
Doubles /BIP10.98%÷1.095×0.780×0.985×1.0127.79%
Triples /BIP1.22%÷0.900×0.850×0.985×1.0121.15%
Home runs /BIP3.66%÷1.297×0.880—×1.0122.51%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 159, 1B 97, 2B 119, 3B 80, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.

Result: wOBA .328 → .233; ISO .171 → .116; BABIP .314 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 138 PAwOBA .346 → .302 (−44)K% 24.6% → 29.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA24.64%÷1.036×1.220——29.02%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.12%÷0.948×0.700—×1.04213.93%
HBP% /PA0.72%—×0.870—×1.0420.66%
Singles /BIP16.88%÷0.982×0.920×1.014×1.04216.72%
Doubles /BIP10.39%÷0.930×0.840×1.014×1.0429.92%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.949×0.940×1.014×1.0420.00%
Home runs /BIP5.19%÷1.057×0.800—×1.0424.10%

Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 90, K 107, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.014.

Result: wOBA .346 → .302; ISO .180 → .156; BABIP .284 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 101 PAwOBA .375 → .314 (−61)K% 17.8% → 24.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA17.82%÷0.996×1.360——24.34%
BB% (unintentional) /PA17.82%÷1.072×0.690——11.47%
HBP% /PA4.95%—×0.780——3.86%
Singles /BIP27.12%÷0.979×0.920×1.027—26.18%
Doubles /BIP8.47%÷1.035×0.830×1.027—6.98%
Triples /BIP1.69%÷0.953×0.910×1.027—1.66%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.005×0.800——0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 96, 2B 107, 3B 91, K 99, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.

Result: wOBA .375 → .314; ISO .091 → .082; BABIP .373 → .348. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 98 PAwOBA .297 → .244 (−53)K% 22.4% → 29.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA22.45%÷1.020×1.360——29.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.31%÷1.024×0.690—×1.01510.47%
HBP% /PA3.06%—×0.780—×1.0152.42%
Singles /BIP22.41%÷1.038×0.920×1.050×1.01521.17%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷1.132×0.830×1.050×1.0150.00%
Triples /BIP3.45%÷0.900×0.910×1.050×1.0153.72%
Home runs /BIP1.72%÷1.118×0.800—×1.0151.25%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 108, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 104, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .297 → .244; ISO .087 → .078; BABIP .263 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).