Lucas Spence — OGILVIE

Lucas SpenceOF Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 23 L/L 6'0" / 195 lbs MLB HR -6% Svc 0.000 · Ctrl thru 2031 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION426 act + 9 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†74

AVG/OBP/SLG.125 / .222 / .125

PA9

HR0

K%33

BB%11

BABIP286

ISO111

MLB%100%

Value2026 · WAR

2026 MLB RUNS · solid = so far · light = projected ROS (park-applied)

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · ContractCON 47 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2026

CONTACT47

xAVG

100.177

POWER45

Barrel%

214.5

Avg EV

9092.7

EYE58

scouting grade only

SPEED60

Sprint

7128.3

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%33%▼▼37% over 41 PA (60d) · proj 31%

BB%9%·7% over 41 PA (60d) · proj 9%

ISO.095▼.027 over 37 AB (60d) · proj .111

BABIP.287·.273 over 22 BIP (60d) · proj .287

SLASH.191/.275/.286▼proj .200/.288/.311

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2026

Service 0.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2031

First FA Year 2032

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Pre-Arb	$0.1M	—	—	—
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2029	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2030	Arb-2	$3M	+0.2	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Arb-3	$4M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	98	80	16	0	2	1	15	22	3	4	2	200	347	287	634	87	263	22	15	304	92	-1	+0	—	—	+2	0.1
2025	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	138	111	25	8	0	4	25	34	1	6	0	225	372	405	778	180	284	25	18	352	124	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.8
2025	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	270	234	56	18	2	6	30	70	5	10	4	239	338	410	749	171	314	26	11	335	113	+4	+0	—	—	+6	1.1
2025	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	101	77	22	5	1	0	18	18	5	11	1	286	450	377	827	91	373	18	18	384	146	+6	+2	—	—	+2	1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	98	86	15	0	2	1	9	31	3	4	2	174	276	256	531	81	249	32	9	235	45	-6	+0	—	—	+2	-0.4
2025	22	AA MLE	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	138	118	24	8	0	3	18	40	1	6	0	203	314	347	661	144	269	29	13	294	85	-2	+1	—	—	+3	0.2
2025	22	A+ MLE	Asheville Tourists	—	270	245	42	12	2	3	19	96	5	10	4	171	245	273	519	102	266	36	7	237	47	-17	+0	—	—	+6	-1.1
2025	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	101	84	21	4	1	0	11	26	5	11	1	250	370	321	691	71	352	26	11	310	96	-0	+2	—	—	+2	0.4
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	98	86	15	0	2	1	9	31	3	4	2	174	276	256	531	81	259	32	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	98	80	16	0	2	1	15	22	3	4	2	200	347	287	634	87	263	22	15	304	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	509	447	88	24	3	7	48	162	11	27	5	197	291	311	601	114	289	32	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	509	422	103	31	3	10	73	122	11	27	5	244	370	403	772	159	318	24	14	349	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	98	86	15	0	2	1	9	31	3	4	2	174	276	256	531	81	249	32	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	509	445	88	24	3	7	48	162	11	27	5	198	291	312	603	115	284	32	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	98	86	15	0	2	1	9	31	3	4	2	174	276	256	531	81	249	32	9	235	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	509	445	88	24	3	7	48	162	11	27	5	198	291	312	603	115	284	32	9	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	HOU	—	426	373	75	15	4	8	35	131	13	15	3	201	292	327	619	126	280	31	8	277	74	-13	+2	+0	-3	+9	-0.5
▸ 2026 season
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
SO FAR	23	MLB RAW	HOU	—	41	37	6	1	0	0	3	15	1	0	1	162	244	189	433	27	273	37	7	211	74	-1	-0	+0	-3	+1	-0.3
YTD	23	AA RAW	HOU	—	202	171	46	10	3	4	19	41	10	10	2	269	375	433	808	164	328	20	9	361	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	AAA RAW	HOU	—	183	151	33	7	1	7	27	51	2	5	0	219	344	417	762	199	271	28	15	338	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	MLB RAW	HOU	—	41	37	6	1	0	0	3	15	1	0	1	162	244	189	433	27	273	37	7	211	29	-3	-0	+0	-0	+1	-0.3
ROS	23	AA MLE	HOU	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		283	33	11	278	74	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
ROS	23	MLB CTX	HOU	100%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		286	33	11	260	74	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	MLB A+C	HOU	—	50	45	7	1	0	0	4	18	1	0	1	156	240	178	418	22	259	36	8	220	74	-2	-0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
TOT	23	AA MLE	HOU	—	435	381	76	15	4	8	36	134	13	15	3	199	291	323	614	123	279	31	8	277	74	-14	+2	+0	-3	+9	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	HOU	65%	544	479	100	21	4	11	48	162	12	16	4	209	297	338	635	129	285	30	9	288	81	-12	+2	+1	-3	+12	-0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	HOU	65%	549	483	103	22	4	12	49	159	12	16	4	213	301	350	651	137	286	29	9	293	85	-10	+2	+1	-3	+12	0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	HOU	65%	549	484	105	22	4	13	49	157	11	16	4	217	303	360	663	143	286	29	9	296	87	-9	+2	+1	-3	+12	0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	HOU	65%	544	479	103	21	4	13	49	155	11	16	4	215	302	357	659	142	286	28	9	297	87	-8	+2	+1	-3	+12	0.3
2031	28	MLB MLE	HOU	65%	536	471	100	21	3	12	49	154	11	15	3	212	301	346	647	134	286	29	9	296	86	-9	+2	+1	-3	+12	0.2
2032	29	MLB MLE	HOU	65%	524	460	97	20	3	12	48	151	11	14	3	211	301	346	646	135	285	29	9	294	85	-9	+2	-0	-3	+11	0.0
2033	30	MLB MLE	HOU	65%	512	450	95	20	3	11	47	149	10	12	3	211	300	342	642	131	283	29	9	291	83	-10	+1	-1	-3	+11	-0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	HOU	65%	354	312	65	14	2	7	31	105	8	11	2	208	296	333	630	125	287	30	9	272	81	-8	+1	+1	-2	+8	-0.0
2028	25	MLB CTX	HOU	65%	357	314	67	14	2	8	32	104	8	11	2	213	302	347	649	134	288	29	9	278	85	-7	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	HOU	65%	357	315	67	14	2	8	32	102	7	11	2	213	299	346	645	133	288	29	9	281	87	-6	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	HOU	65%	354	312	67	14	2	8	32	101	7	11	2	215	302	349	651	135	288	29	9	282	87	-5	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.2
2031	28	MLB CTX	HOU	65%	348	306	66	14	2	8	32	100	7	10	2	216	304	353	657	137	288	29	9	281	86	-6	+1	+0	-2	+8	0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	HOU	65%	341	300	65	14	2	8	31	99	7	9	2	217	305	357	661	140	287	29	9	279	85	-6	+1	-0	-2	+7	0.0
2033	30	MLB CTX	HOU	65%	333	292	62	13	2	7	31	97	7	8	2	212	303	342	645	130	285	29	9	277	83	-7	+1	-1	-2	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2453	2159	460	97	14	54	222	711	51	71	14	213	301	346	647	133	288	29	9	278	82	-44	+9	+3	-15	+53	0.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	572	122	26	4	14	59	188	14	19	4	213	303	346	649	133	289	29	9	278	82	-12	+2	+1	-4	+14	0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4374	3847	807	171	30	92	397	1283	92	136	32	210	299	342	640	132	287	29	9	289	82	-68	+11	+5	-23	+82	0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	572	119	25	4	14	59	191	14	20	5	208	298	339	637	131	284	29	9	289	82	-12	+2	+1	-4	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jace Petersonlast yr '23 career totals — 10 seasons, 2,753 PA	4.1	2,753	42	77	228	318	337	+4	+5	5.3	6.0
/162	664	10	19	+1.0	+1.3	1.3	pk7: 7
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Tony Kemplast yr '23 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,198 PA	3.3	2,198	35	52	238	326	354	-4	-3	4.3	4.3
/162	664	11	16	-1.3	-0.8	1.3	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	3.5	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
/162	664	13	9	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	4.2	2,763	60	80	212	297	346	-17	+12	1.5	1.6
/162	664	14	19	-4.0	+2.9	0.4	pk7: 2
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	2.5	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
/162	664	16	13	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lucas Spence (OGILVIE)	23	47	45	60	58	198/288/315	116	283	5	11	31%	9%	74	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2022 · AA	23	50→52	41→45	54→60	44	235/294/339	105	321	8	22	28%	7%	80	-0.2	242/301/345	103	318	7	29	24%	7%	84	+0.1	247/309/346	99	324	6	33	24%	8%	84	+0.1
●Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	46→56	43→50	53→50	48	223/289/343	120	286	8	14	24%	8%	79	-0.2	225/291/339	114	281	9	12	22%	8%	79	-0.2	231/301/363	132	280	11	10	21%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Taylor Trammell 2021 · AA	23	42→46	40→55	51→55	46	203/278/290	87	288	8	17	30%	9%	63	-1.3	213/292/373	160	289	19	15	31%	9%	88	+0.4	203/297/373	170	273	21	23	32%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Forrest Wall 2019 · AA	23	44→54	41→45	53→70	42	215/272/311	97	294	8	23	29%	6%	65	-1.2	217/277/323	106	306	8	22	30%	7%	70	-0.8	253/326/354	101	349	8	50	27%	9%	92	+0.5
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2022 · AAA	23	49→50	43→45	53→55	48	232/307/345	113	328	11	15	30%	10%	86	+0.3	224/293/335	111	332	8	18	32%	9%	79	-0.2	212/284/322	110	316	7	20	32%	9%	69	-0.5
✕Hoy Park 2019 · A	23	46→49	39→45	55	51	217/298/301	85	285	6	17	25%	9%	74	-0.6	228/306/324	96	300	7	16	24%	9%	81	-0.1	215/302/326	111	288	12	18	27%	10%	79	-0.2
✕Victor Labrada 2023 · A	23	42→52	41→45	54→60	39	199/264/301	102	310	8	21	36%	7%	60	-1.6	216/283/316	100	307	8	31	30%	7%	71	-0.8	229/311/347	118	299	10	36	25%	8%	86	+0.2
✕Juan Silva 2014 · A	23	46	42→45	51→55	48	222/297/329	107	304	9	21	28%	9%	79	-0.2	224/300/316	92	297	6	22	24%	10%	77	-0.3	221/301/302	81	289	4	24	23%	10%	72	-0.3
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	229/302/326	97	301	6	22	24%	9%	80	-0.2	218/282/296	78	282	5	17	23%	7%	65	-1.2	200/262/221	21	248	0	22	18%	6%	38	-0.7
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2019 · AA	24	45→55	42→45	57→55	40	216/270/329	112	312	9	21	32%	6%	69	-0.9	202/261/305	103	316	10	15	36%	7%	60	-1.6	182/248/267	86	291	8	13	38%	8%	44	-1.9
✕Troy Montgomery 2018 · AA	23	47→55	43→40	52→50	47	228/291/339	111	290	10	13	24%	8%	78	-0.3	228/296/315	87	318	6	12	27%	9%	75	-0.5	247/322/317	70	355	2	15	28%	10%	83	+0.1
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	40→45	51→55	44	215/280/315	101	289	7	13	27%	7%	69	-0.9	208/260/300	92	298	6	11	30%	6%	58	-1.7	173/207/222	50	261	0	15	32%	4%	18	-0.8
✕Chandler Simpson 2023 · A	22	49→59	38→30	56→70	48	228/294/313	86	300	4	17	24%	8%	74	-0.5	270/314/320	50	311	1	59	13%	6%	82	-0.0	303/337/348	46	336	0	63	10%	5%	93	+0.8
✕Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→45	58→60	54	211/315/327	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	86	+0.3	215/313/338	123	273	13	33	24%	11%	88	+0.5	211/310/338	127	264	13	40	24%	11%	84	+0.2
✕Ramiro Rodriguez 2021 · AA	23	43	40	51→50	49	206/287/303	97	281	7	18	28%	9%	70	-0.9	201/263/300	99	311	9	11	36%	7%	60	-1.6	148/212/219	71	239	8	8	39%	6%	19	-1.1
✕Tucker Bradley 2022 · A	24	48→53	41→45	54→50	46	227/299/335	107	310	8	11	28%	8%	81	-0.1	243/306/369	126	316	11	15	25%	8%	91	+0.7	250/313/384	134	318	12	17	24%	8%	95	+0.6
✕Sócrates Brito 2016 · MLB	23	52→56	41→50	58→55	39	247/278/355	108	316	7	19	24%	4%	76	-0.4	230/264/349	119	297	10	14	25%	4%	70	-0.8	220/264/358	138	293	13	12	28%	5%	71	-0.6
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	47	217/293/305	88	307	6	13	29%	9%	72	-0.7	200/284/329	129	320	13	21	38%	10%	75	-0.5	189/285/327	138	300	14	26	38%	11%	72	-0.6
✕Luis Barrera 2019 · AA	23	50→56	39→45	55→50	41	237/280/335	98	309	5	16	24%	5%	73	-0.6	238/280/345	107	310	6	15	24%	5%	76	-0.4	229/276/347	118	293	7	15	23%	6%	72	-0.4
✕Daryl Jones 2010 · AA	23	50→55	41→45	51→50	44	240/303/340	100	315	8	14	25%	7%	84	+0.1	219/285/321	102	291	8	12	26%	7%	72	-0.7	204/273/304	100	271	8	13	26%	7%	62	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps