Lucas SpenceOF
Corpus Christi Hooks
Age 23
L/L
6'0" / 195 lbs
AA
H +4%HR -3%
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.3 · 2029
wRC+†80
AVG/OBP/SLG.212 / .296 / .348
PA320
HR8
SB9
K%30
BB%9
MLB%2%
Scouting · now → future
HIT
47→47
PWR
45→45
SPD
60→60
FLD
55→55
EYE
53↗58
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.2peak
2029
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +1.3 | $11M | +$11M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +1.3 | $12M | +$11M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +1.2 | $11M | +$10M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +1.0 | $10M | +$8M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $3M | +0.8 | $4M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $2M | +0.6 | $3M | +$0.6M |
| Totals | $10M | $51M | +$41M | ||
Career Projections (MLE)
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 98 | 86 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 31 | 3 | 4 | 2 | .174 | .276 | .256 | .531 | .081 | .259 | 32 | 9 | .235 | 38 | -7 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +3 | -0.5 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | 3 teams | 509 | 448 | 87 | 23 | 3 | 7 | 47 | 162 | 11 | 27 | 5 | .194 | .287 | .306 | .592 | .112 | .285 | 32 | 9 | .264 | 61 | -23 | +3 | +0 | -3 | +14 | -0.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season (actual · ROS · total) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 55 | 47 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 18 | 2 | 2 | 1 | .234 | .333 | .277 | .610 | .043 | .367 | 33 | 9 | .274 | 68 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 23 | MLB | HOU | 265 | 234 | 51 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 80 | 4 | 7 | 2 | .218 | .304 | .350 | .655 | .132 | .299 | 30 | 9 | .294 | 83 | -5 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +8 | 0.2 |
| TOT | 23 | MLB | HOU | 320 | 281 | 62 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 98 | 6 | 9 | 3 | .221 | .309 | .338 | .647 | .117 | .313 | 31 | 9 | .290 | 80 | -7 | +1 | +1 | -2 | +9 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB 11% | HOU | 474 | 416 | 93 | 19 | 2 | 11 | 47 | 121 | 8 | 12 | 3 | .224 | .314 | .358 | .672 | .135 | .287 | 26 | 10 | .306 | 92 | -4 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +13 | 0.9 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB 26% | HOU | 502 | 439 | 99 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 50 | 126 | 8 | 13 | 3 | .226 | .316 | .362 | .678 | .137 | .288 | 25 | 10 | .310 | 96 | -2 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +14 | 1.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB 44% | HOU | 516 | 451 | 103 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 52 | 129 | 8 | 13 | 3 | .228 | .319 | .370 | .689 | .142 | .289 | 25 | 10 | .313 | 97 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +15 | 1.3 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB 59% | HOU | 521 | 455 | 104 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 131 | 8 | 13 | 3 | .229 | .320 | .369 | .689 | .141 | .289 | 25 | 10 | .313 | 98 | -1 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +15 | 1.3 |
| 2031 | 28 | MLB 69% | HOU | 520 | 453 | 103 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 54 | 131 | 8 | 12 | 3 | .227 | .320 | .369 | .689 | .141 | .288 | 25 | 10 | .312 | 97 | -2 | +1 | +1 | -3 | +15 | 1.2 |
| 2032 | 29 | MLB 77% | HOU | 512 | 446 | 102 | 21 | 2 | 13 | 53 | 131 | 8 | 12 | 2 | .229 | .321 | .372 | .694 | .143 | .288 | 26 | 10 | .310 | 95 | -3 | +2 | -0 | -3 | +15 | 1.0 |
| 2033 | 30 | MLB 85% | HOU | 502 | 437 | 98 | 20 | 2 | 12 | 52 | 130 | 8 | 11 | 2 | .224 | .318 | .362 | .679 | .137 | .286 | 26 | 10 | .307 | 93 | -4 | +1 | -1 | -3 | +14 | 0.8 |
| 2034 | 31 | MLB 91% | HOU | 489 | 428 | 94 | 19 | 2 | 11 | 51 | 129 | 7 | 10 | 1 | .220 | .313 | .350 | .663 | .131 | .285 | 26 | 10 | .303 | 90 | -6 | +2 | -2 | -3 | +14 | 0.6 |
| 2035 | 32 | MLB | HOU | 471 | 412 | 90 | 18 | 2 | 11 | 49 | 126 | 7 | 9 | 1 | .218 | .312 | .352 | .664 | .133 | .283 | 27 | 10 | .298 | 86 | -7 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +13 | 0.2 |
| 2036 | 33 | MLB | HOU | 442 | 388 | 82 | 16 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 122 | 6 | 8 | 0 | .211 | .303 | .332 | .635 | .121 | .281 | 28 | 10 | .293 | 82 | -9 | +2 | -3 | -3 | +13 | -0.1 |
| 2037 | 34 | MLB | HOU | 396 | 347 | 71 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 40 | 112 | 6 | 7 | 0 | .205 | .298 | .320 | .618 | .115 | .280 | 28 | 10 | .286 | 77 | -10 | +1 | -4 | -2 | +11 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 6217 | 5440 | 1192 | 244 | 27 | 140 | 627 | 1661 | 100 | 158 | 30 | .219 | .311 | .351 | .662 | .132 | .287 | 27 | 10 | .300 | 88 | -85 | +20 | -6 | -37 | +176 | 7.0 | ||
| / 162G | — | 650 | 569 | 126 | 26 | 3 | 15 | 66 | 174 | 10 | 17 | 3 | .221 | .313 | .357 | .670 | .135 | .290 | 27 | 10 | .300 | 88 | -9 | +2 | -1 | -4 | +18 | 0.7 | ||
Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)
Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 98 | 80 | 16 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 22 | 3 | 4 | 2 | .200 | .347 | .287 | .634 | .087 | .263 | 22 | 15 | .304 | 90 | -1 | +0 | — | — | +3 | 0.2 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | 138 | 111 | 25 | 8 | 0 | 4 | 25 | 34 | 1 | 6 | 0 | .225 | .372 | .405 | .778 | .180 | .284 | 25 | 18 | .352 | 127 | +4 | +1 | — | — | +4 | 1.0 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | 270 | 234 | 56 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 30 | 70 | 5 | 10 | 4 | .239 | .338 | .410 | .749 | .171 | .314 | 26 | 11 | .335 | 115 | +5 | +0 | — | — | +8 | 1.3 |
| 2025 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | 101 | 77 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 1 | .286 | .450 | .377 | .827 | .091 | .373 | 18 | 18 | .384 | 152 | +6 | +2 | — | — | +3 | 1.1 |
Career Path Comps
What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Scouting | At Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Peak 3 Yrs | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | HIT | PWR | SPD | EYE | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR | AVG/OBP/SLG | ISO | BABIP | HR | SB | K% | BB% | wRC+ | WAR |
| Lucas Spence (OGILVIE) | 23 | 47 | 45 | 60 | 58 | .212/.296/.348 | .136 | .290 | 8 | 8 | 30% | 9% | 83 | +0.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
|
✕Garrett Mitchell 2022 · AA |
23 | 47 | 45→50 | 56→60 | 48 | .223/.306/.345 | .122 | .333 | 14 | 20 | 34% | 10% | 85 | +0.7 | .239/.311/.374 | .135 | .355 | 13 | 26 | 33% | 9% | 94 | +1.3 | .249/.323/.406 | .156 | .360 | 16 | 32 | 33% | 9% | 102 | +0.8 |
|
●Derek Fisher 2017 · AAA |
23 | 44→51 | 49→55 | 55 | 45 | .219/.292/.364 | .144 | .309 | 17 | 20 | 33% | 9% | 83 | +0.6 | .229/.300/.394 | .165 | .320 | 20 | 18 | 33% | 9% | 95 | +1.4 | .226/.302/.402 | .176 | .310 | 23 | 18 | 33% | 9% | 95 | +1.0 |
|
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2022 · AAA |
23 | 48→47 | 44→45 | 52→55 | 47 | .229/.299/.348 | .119 | .319 | 12 | 14 | 30% | 9% | 82 | +0.5 | .226/.295/.343 | .117 | .335 | 9 | 18 | 32% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .215/.285/.332 | .117 | .318 | 9 | 20 | 33% | 9% | 69 | -0.2 |
|
✕Wenceel Pérez 2023 · AA |
23 | 47→49 | 46→50 | 57→55 | 46 | .234/.288/.375 | .142 | .285 | 12 | 16 | 23% | 7% | 84 | +0.6 | .233/.295/.371 | .138 | .286 | 13 | 17 | 22% | 8% | 86 | +0.8 | .229/.296/.370 | .141 | .279 | 14 | 17 | 22% | 8% | 85 | +0.5 |
|
✕Akil Baddoo 2022 · MLB |
23 | 48→51 | 49→55 | 56→55 | 48 | .237/.308/.393 | .156 | .316 | 16 | 20 | 29% | 9% | 98 | +1.6 | .226/.305/.368 | .142 | .297 | 14 | 23 | 27% | 10% | 90 | +1.0 | .214/.295/.378 | .164 | .277 | 17 | 28 | 28% | 10% | 85 | +0.5 |
|
✕Tristan Peters 2023 · AA |
23 | 47→50 | 43→45 | 54→50 | 49 | .225/.293/.348 | .122 | .288 | 9 | 14 | 24% | 8% | 79 | +0.3 | .227/.293/.350 | .123 | .284 | 10 | 12 | 22% | 8% | 80 | +0.4 | .224/.293/.346 | .123 | .275 | 10 | 11 | 21% | 8% | 75 | +0.0 |
|
✕Drew Avans 2019 · A |
23 | 46→53 | 48→45 | 55→60 | 50 | .231/.303/.373 | .142 | .280 | 15 | 17 | 23% | 9% | 90 | +1.0 | .223/.283/.346 | .123 | .312 | 12 | 21 | 31% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .223/.291/.339 | .116 | .327 | 9 | 33 | 32% | 8% | 71 | -0.2 |
|
✕Nate Tenbrink 2011 · AA |
24 | 50→52 | 46→50 | 57→50 | 46 | .244/.306/.379 | .135 | .309 | 12 | 15 | 25% | 7% | 92 | +1.2 | .225/.295/.371 | .146 | .308 | 15 | 15 | 30% | 8% | 87 | +0.8 | .219/.293/.368 | .149 | .332 | 16 | 11 | 36% | 8% | 82 | +0.2 |
|
✕Ryan Kalish 2010 · AA |
22 | 49→51 | 44→50 | 52→55 | 46 | .237/.296/.355 | .118 | .303 | 12 | 14 | 25% | 8% | 82 | +0.5 | .240/.297/.372 | .132 | .298 | 14 | 23 | 23% | 7% | 87 | +0.8 | .232/.286/.357 | .124 | .293 | 12 | 26 | 24% | 7% | 76 | +0.0 |
|
✕Parker Meadows 2023 · AA |
23 | 41→47 | 49→55 | 51→55 | 43 | .211/.270/.356 | .146 | .270 | 16 | 12 | 28% | 7% | 72 | -0.2 | .223/.290/.386 | .163 | .284 | 18 | 19 | 27% | 8% | 89 | +0.9 | .223/.295/.390 | .167 | .282 | 18 | 22 | 27% | 9% | 89 | +0.8 |
|
✕Shed Long Jr. 2019 · AA |
23 | 47→48 | 47→50 | 51→50 | 43 | .233/.294/.371 | .138 | .315 | 14 | 13 | 30% | 7% | 85 | +0.7 | .225/.285/.368 | .143 | .305 | 15 | 10 | 30% | 7% | 82 | +0.5 | .216/.276/.363 | .148 | .285 | 16 | 8 | 29% | 8% | 73 | -0.0 |
|
✕Trey Sweeney 2023 · AA |
23 | 38→43 | 48→50 | 57→55 | 45 | .200/.272/.345 | .145 | .264 | 16 | 19 | 30% | 8% | 71 | -0.3 | .213/.284/.353 | .140 | .278 | 16 | 18 | 28% | 8% | 78 | +0.2 | .213/.283/.350 | .137 | .276 | 16 | 17 | 28% | 8% | 73 | -0.1 |
|
✕Tucker Bradley 2023 · AA |
25 | 50→51 | 45→50 | 53→50 | 47 | .241/.307/.371 | .130 | .311 | 12 | 15 | 26% | 8% | 92 | +1.2 | .239/.302/.372 | .133 | .314 | 12 | 15 | 26% | 8% | 89 | +1.0 | .239/.304/.378 | .139 | .315 | 11 | 16 | 26% | 8% | 89 | +0.6 |
|
●Brian Goodwin 2014 · AA |
23 | 46→52 | 45→60 | 50 | 48 | .226/.299/.357 | .132 | .297 | 12 | 15 | 27% | 9% | 85 | +0.7 | .214/.278/.326 | .112 | .294 | 10 | 13 | 29% | 8% | 67 | -0.5 | .243/.309/.437 | .195 | .311 | 23 | 11 | 28% | 8% | 105 | +1.3 |
|
✕Brett Jackson 2012 · AAA |
23 | 47→50 | 49→50 | 55 | 44 | .229/.300/.384 | .155 | .326 | 16 | 19 | 33% | 8% | 92 | +1.2 | .193/.266/.328 | .135 | .323 | 13 | 17 | 41% | 8% | 63 | -0.8 | .165/.241/.284 | .119 | .296 | 11 | 17 | 45% | 8% | 39 | -1.7 |
|
✕Jordan Danks 2010 · AA |
23 | 48→50 | 44→50 | 50 | 43 | .232/.293/.355 | .123 | .324 | 11 | 11 | 31% | 7% | 81 | +0.4 | .226/.285/.345 | .119 | .330 | 11 | 14 | 32% | 7% | 75 | -0.0 | .237/.309/.368 | .131 | .327 | 15 | 11 | 30% | 9% | 88 | +0.6 |
|
●Dominic Canzone 2022 · AA |
24 | 46→53 | 49→60 | 54→50 | 42 | .231/.289/.377 | .145 | .306 | 16 | 18 | 29% | 7% | 85 | +0.7 | .244/.298/.420 | .176 | .291 | 22 | 13 | 24% | 7% | 101 | +1.8 | .252/.309/.432 | .181 | .291 | 24 | 5 | 22% | 7% | 106 | +1.5 |
|
✕Jarrett Parker 2012 · A |
23 | 45→50 | 44→55 | 51→50 | 46 | .214/.295/.330 | .116 | .320 | 11 | 13 | 34% | 10% | 76 | +0.1 | .210/.288/.351 | .141 | .346 | 15 | 15 | 40% | 9% | 79 | +0.3 | .230/.305/.409 | .179 | .334 | 22 | 12 | 35% | 8% | 97 | +1.2 |
|
✕DJ Stewart 2018 · AA |
24 | 46→48 | 48→60 | 52→50 | 48 | .232/.304/.375 | .143 | .287 | 16 | 16 | 24% | 8% | 92 | +1.2 | .226/.301/.386 | .160 | .275 | 19 | 12 | 24% | 8% | 94 | +1.3 | .217/.322/.406 | .189 | .259 | 24 | 4 | 26% | 12% | 104 | +1.0 |
|
✕Richie Palacios 2021 · A |
24 | 48→53 | 45→50 | 53→55 | 44 | .238/.287/.362 | .124 | .295 | 13 | 11 | 24% | 6% | 80 | +0.4 | .243/.318/.373 | .130 | .299 | 10 | 18 | 21% | 9% | 97 | +1.5 | .241/.321/.375 | .134 | .285 | 11 | 17 | 18% | 9% | 95 | +1.0 |