Lucas Spence — OGILVIE

Lucas SpenceOF Corpus Christi Hooks

Age 23 L/L 6'0" / 195 lbs AA HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION269 act + 179 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.208 / .293 / .316

PA179

HR2

SB7

K%30

BB%8

BABIP297

ISO107

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 47 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT47

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE55

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

DEFENSE55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$3M	+$2M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$6M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	98	86	15	0	2	1	9	30	3	4	2	174	276	256	531	81	255	31	9	234	37	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	98	80	16	0	2	1	15	22	3	4	2	200	347	287	634	87	263	22	15	304	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	3 teams	—	509	447	87	23	3	6	48	165	11	27	5	195	289	300	588	105	291	32	9	265	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	3 teams	—	509	422	103	31	3	10	73	122	11	27	5	244	370	403	772	159	318	24	14	349	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	AA	HOU	—	269	236	54	11	4	4	16	81	12	13	2	229	311	360	671	131	321	30	6	293	82	-5	+2	+0	-2	+8	0.2
YTD	23	AA	HOU	—	269	228	60	13	4	5	24	63	12	13	2	263	364	421	785	158	333	23	9	348	124	+7	+2	+0	-2	+8	1.5
ROS	23	AA	HOU	2%	179	158	33	7	2	2	14	53	5	7	1	208	293	316	609	107	299	30	8	285	76	-5	+1	+0	-1	+5	0.1
ROS	23	MLB	HOU	2%	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						301	25	0	266	61	-0	+0	+0	-0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	AA	HOU	—	273	240	54	11	4	4	16	82	12	13	2	225	306	354	660	129	314	30	6	292	82	-6	+2	+0	-2	+8	0.2
TOT	23	AA	HOU	—	448	394	87	18	6	6	30	134	17	20	3	221	304	342	646	122	311	30	7	290	80	-10	+3	+0	-3	+13	0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	HOU	31%	479	426	92	20	4	9	38	137	12	14	3	216	298	345	643	129	296	29	8	293	82	-10	+2	+1	-3	+14	0.4
2028	25	MLB	HOU	45%	506	447	99	21	4	11	41	142	13	14	3	221	305	360	666	139	296	28	8	299	87	-7	+2	+1	-3	+14	0.7
2029	26	MLB	HOU	51%	553	490	109	23	4	12	45	153	13	15	3	222	305	359	664	137	296	28	8	302	89	-7	+2	+1	-3	+16	0.9
2030	27	MLB	HOU	53%	552	488	108	23	4	12	46	153	13	15	3	221	305	359	664	137	296	28	8	303	90	-6	+2	+1	-3	+16	0.9
2027	24	MLB	HOU	31%	149	132	29	6	1	3	12	43	4	4	1	220	304	348	653	129	299	29	8	277	70	-5	+0	+0	-1	+4	-0.1
2028	25	MLB	HOU	45%	226	200	45	10	2	5	18	63	6	6	1	225	308	370	678	145	299	28	8	284	75	-6	+1	+1	-1	+6	0.0
2029	26	MLB	HOU	51%	282	250	56	12	2	6	23	78	7	8	1	224	307	360	667	136	299	28	8	287	78	-7	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.1
2030	27	MLB	HOU	53%	290	257	58	12	2	7	24	80	7	8	1	226	309	370	679	144	299	28	8	288	79	-7	+1	+1	-2	+8	0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	951	843	188	40	7	21	77	265	24	26	4	223	306	362	668	139	298	28	8	285	76	-26	+4	+2	-6	+27	0.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	128	27	5	14	53	181	16	18	3	222	305	359	665	137	297	28	8	285	76	-17	+2	+2	-4	+18	0.1
Career	—			—	2876	2542	543	117	23	53	241	833	70	96	20	214	299	340	640	127	293	29	8	290	80	-64	+11	+6	-17	+81	1.7
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	122	26	5	12	54	188	16	22	5	212	298	337	635	125	291	29	8	290	80	-15	+2	+1	-4	+18	0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	98	80	16	0	2	1	15	22	3	4	2	200	347	287	634	87	263	22	15	304	90	-1	+0	—	—	+3	0.2
2025	22	AA	Corpus Christi Hooks	—	138	111	25	8	0	4	25	34	1	6	0	225	372	405	778	180	284	25	18	352	127	+4	+1	—	—	+4	1.0
2025	22	A+	Asheville Tourists	—	270	234	56	18	2	6	30	70	5	10	4	239	338	410	749	171	314	26	11	335	115	+5	+0	—	—	+8	1.3
2025	22	A	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	—	101	77	22	5	1	0	18	18	5	11	1	286	450	377	827	91	373	18	18	384	152	+6	+2	—	—	+3	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Desmond Jenningslast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,327 PA	6	2,327	55	93	245	323	394	-9	+10	8.1	8.1
	/162	664	16	27	245	323	394	-2.5	+2.7	2.3	pk7: 8
#2Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	8	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
	/162	664	20	13	233	305	399	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#3Shane Halterlast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,744 PA	5	1,744	41	11	247	305	396	-6	+8	3.9	3.9
	/162	664	16	4	247	305	396	-2.1	+3.0	1.5	pk7: 4
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Doug Glanvillelast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 2,256 PA	5	2,256	35	90	259	290	356	-9	+3	1.3	1.3
	/162	664	10	26	259	290	356	-2.8	+0.9	0.4	pk7: 1
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	952	20	27	223	303	361	-6	+4	1.2	1.2
	/162	664	14	19	223	303	361	-4.0	+2.8	0.8	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Lucas Spence (OGILVIE)	23	47	45	60	55	221/304/342	122	311	6	20	30%	7%	80	+0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Tristan Peters 2023 · AA	23	45→53	44→45	53→50	48	218/288/344	126	281	9	14	25%	8%	76	+0.1	229/295/348	119	286	9	12	22%	8%	80	+0.4	238/306/369	131	290	10	10	21%	8%	87	+0.6
✕Ji Hwan Bae 2022 · AA	23	48→51	42→45	54→60	43	229/288/341	112	317	9	22	29%	7%	76	+0.0	238/296/347	109	313	8	29	25%	7%	80	+0.4	240/313/341	101	332	7	39	27%	9%	83	+0.3
✕Forrest Wall 2019 · AA	23	44→54	41→45	53→70	41	212/269/310	98	296	9	23	30%	6%	59	-1.1	214/276/328	114	305	10	22	31%	7%	67	-0.5	266/338/377	110	363	9	50	27%	9%	101	+1.1
✕Leon Johnson 2008 · A	23	49	40	58→60	50	229/302/326	97	301	6	22	24%	9%	77	+0.1	218/282/296	78	282	5	17	23%	7%	61	-1.0	200/262/221	21	248	0	22	18%	6%	30	-0.7
✕Tucker Bradley 2022 · A	24	47→53	41→50	54→50	47	223/295/331	108	303	8	11	27%	8%	76	+0.1	244/308/384	140	316	13	15	26%	8%	95	+1.4	252/316/405	153	320	16	17	25%	8%	100	+1.2
✕Troy Montgomery 2018 · AA	23	48→55	42→40	51→50	47	230/294/339	109	298	9	13	25%	8%	77	+0.1	227/294/313	86	322	5	12	28%	8%	70	-0.3	245/317/316	71	358	2	15	29%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Hoy Park 2019 · A	23	46→49	39→45	55	50	218/298/304	86	288	6	17	25%	9%	71	-0.3	227/304/324	97	304	7	16	25%	9%	78	+0.2	217/301/336	119	289	13	18	28%	10%	77	+0.1
✕Taylor Trammell 2021 · AA	23	41→46	39→55	50→55	45	195/270/277	82	286	7	17	32%	8%	52	-1.6	218/295/384	166	296	20	15	31%	9%	91	+1.1	211/296/388	177	282	22	17	32%	10%	91	+0.7
✕Chris Pieters 2018 · A	23	45	41→45	51→55	44	215/279/319	105	286	7	13	26%	7%	66	-0.6	207/259/301	94	296	6	11	30%	6%	53	-1.5	165/200/219	54	252	0	15	33%	4%	4	-0.8
●Jakob Marsee 2023 · A	22	44→48	43→50	58→60	54	209/313/325	116	289	9	21	28%	12%	83	+0.6	220/319/358	138	276	15	33	24%	11%	94	+1.3	216/315/358	142	266	16	40	24%	11%	89	+1.0
✕Ryan Boldt 2018 · A	23	47→48	40→50	53→55	44	226/284/323	97	296	6	16	25%	6%	69	-0.4	236/292/361	125	307	11	16	25%	6%	82	+0.5	227/279/362	135	313	14	18	31%	5%	74	-0.0
✕Joe McCarthy 2018 · AA	24	48→49	42→50	53→50	53	230/315/342	112	292	8	15	23%	10%	88	+0.9	202/288/330	128	284	12	10	31%	10%	74	-0.1	202/285/367	165	263	19	5	30%	9%	80	+0.1
✕Kameron Misner 2021 · A	23	46→43	39→50	54→55	48	217/293/303	87	305	6	13	29%	9%	68	-0.5	199/283/333	134	317	13	21	38%	10%	72	-0.2	205/283/356	150	291	16	27	33%	9%	75	+0.0
●Roger Bernadina 2007 · A	23	45→55	41→45	52→60	46	218/286/311	93	289	9	20	26%	8%	67	-0.5	249/305/349	100	332	8	30	25%	7%	84	+0.6	261/318/388	127	324	12	31	22%	7%	96	+1.3
●Victor Labrada 2023 · A	23	41→51	41→45	54→60	39	197/261/298	101	307	8	21	36%	7%	53	-1.5	218/285/326	108	307	9	31	30%	7%	71	-0.3	234/316/361	128	305	11	38	25%	9%	90	+0.8
✕Juan Silva 2014 · A	23	46	42→45	51→55	47	220/292/325	105	300	9	21	28%	9%	73	-0.1	222/297/313	91	298	6	22	25%	9%	72	-0.2	218/298/300	82	290	4	24	24%	10%	66	-0.3
✕Logan Watkins 2013 · AA	23	51→52	40	57→55	48	239/304/337	98	309	6	17	24%	8%	81	+0.4	214/270/306	92	286	7	18	26%	7%	59	-1.1	224/279/299	75	286	3	17	22%	6%	58	-0.6
✕Nick Gordon 2019 · AAA	23	45→55	41→50	52→55	40	220/264/320	100	289	7	14	26%	5%	59	-1.1	230/271/341	111	297	9	20	25%	5%	68	-0.5	252/296/383	131	322	11	19	24%	4%	87	+0.5
✕Daryl Jones 2010 · AA	23	50→55	41→45	51→50	44	239/302/341	103	316	8	14	26%	7%	82	+0.5	217/282/323	106	291	9	12	27%	7%	69	-0.4	201/269/306	105	270	9	13	27%	7%	56	-0.7
✕Canaan Smith-Njigba 2023 · AAA	24	49	42→45	54→55	47	227/299/343	116	329	8	17	32%	9%	81	+0.4	214/280/331	117	321	10	19	33%	8%	69	-0.4	203/271/316	113	305	10	21	34%	8%	59	-0.7