Joey Loperfido
LF Sugar Land Space Cowboys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 25 | AAAHOU | 189 | .272/.369/.568 | 13 | 9 | 114 | — | .235/.305/.465 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLBTOR | 262 | .214/.265/.350 | 4 | 4 | 70 | -0.9 | |
| 2025 | 26 | AAATOR | 373 | .264/.342/.401 | 7 | 11 | 72 | — | .228/.291/.337 |
| 2025 | 26 | MLBTOR | 104 | .333/.379/.500 | 4 | 1 | 147 | 0.1 | |
| 2026 | 27 | AAAHOU | 269 | .289/.382/.392 | 3 | 7 | 86 | — | .257/.330/.336 |
| 2026 | 27 | MLBHOU | 121 | .214/.311/.330 | 1 | 1 | 75 | -0.6 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 28 | MLBHOU | 107 | .233/.302/.363 | 2 | 5 | 86 | 0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ53% MLB | 29 | MLBHOU | 186 | .230/.299/.356 | 4 | 7 | 84 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ58% MLB | 30 | MLBHOU | 195 | .226/.295/.347 | 4 | 6 | 80 | -0.2 |
Tools · Splits · ContractCON 40 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 87 | 69 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 116 | 282 | 261 | 543 | 145 | 158 | 36 | 9 | 259 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 113 | 96 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 354 | 441 | 552 | 994 | 198 | 443 | 22 | 12 | 430 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 348 | 296 | 90 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 40 | 76 | 9 | 30 | 9 | 304 | 403 | 473 | 876 | 169 | 379 | 22 | 11 | 388 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 138 | 119 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 235 | 336 | 403 | 739 | 168 | 329 | 33 | 12 | 332 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 365 | 314 | 93 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 47 | 81 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 296 | 393 | 548 | 941 | 252 | 344 | 22 | 13 | 410 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ | Asheville Tourists | — | 37 | 34 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 265 | 306 | 529 | 835 | 265 | 308 | 22 | 5 | 348 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 262 | 243 | 52 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 95 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 214 | 265 | 350 | 615 | 136 | 331 | 36 | 5 | 273 | 70 | -9 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +6 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 189 | 162 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 21 | 53 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 272 | 369 | 568 | 937 | 296 | 316 | 28 | 11 | 402 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 104 | 96 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 333 | 379 | 500 | 879 | 167 | 431 | 26 | 4 | 386 | 147 | +6 | -1 | -1 | -5 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | — | 373 | 329 | 87 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 29 | 80 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 264 | 342 | 401 | 744 | 137 | 329 | 21 | 8 | 331 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB | Houston Astros | — | 121 | 103 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 214 | 311 | 330 | 641 | 117 | 296 | 26 | 12 | 289 | 75 | -4 | -0 | -0 | -4 | +3 | -0.6 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 269 | 232 | 67 | 15 | 0 | 3 | 31 | 57 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 289 | 382 | 392 | 774 | 103 | 370 | 21 | 12 | 351 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 487 | 442 | 106 | 24 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 154 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 240 | 301 | 378 | 679 | 138 | 345 | 32 | 6 | 301 | 90 | -6 | -1 | -1 | -14 | +11 | -1.2 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 87 | 71 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 85 | 235 | 169 | 404 | 85 | 129 | 48 | 7 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 113 | 101 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 267 | 333 | 426 | 759 | 158 | 368 | 31 | 7 | 329 | 109 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 348 | 309 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 106 | 9 | 30 | 9 | 256 | 333 | 385 | 718 | 129 | 349 | 30 | 8 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 138 | 124 | 27 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 54 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 218 | 292 | 355 | 647 | 137 | 335 | 39 | 8 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | Corpus Christi Hooks | — | 365 | 330 | 82 | 18 | 1 | 12 | 31 | 94 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 248 | 319 | 418 | 737 | 170 | 310 | 26 | 8 | 321 | 103 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | A+ MLE | Asheville Tourists | — | 37 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 200 | 222 | 429 | 651 | 229 | 253 | 30 | 3 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 262 | 243 | 52 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 95 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 214 | 265 | 350 | 615 | 136 | 331 | 36 | 5 | 272 | 70 | -9 | +0 | -0 | -5 | +6 | -0.9 |
| 2024 | 25 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 189 | 170 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 63 | 4 | 9 | 1 | 235 | 305 | 465 | 770 | 229 | 300 | 33 | 7 | 337 | 114 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | MLB MLE | Toronto Blue Jays | — | 104 | 96 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 333 | 379 | 500 | 879 | 167 | 431 | 26 | 4 | 385 | 147 | +6 | -1 | -1 | -5 | +2 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | Buffalo Bisons | — | 373 | 338 | 77 | 17 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 97 | 10 | 11 | 1 | 228 | 291 | 337 | 628 | 109 | 294 | 26 | 5 | 274 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | MLB MLE | Houston Astros | — | 121 | 105 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 32 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 210 | 303 | 324 | 626 | 114 | 296 | 26 | 11 | 279 | 75 | -4 | -0 | -0 | -4 | +3 | -0.6 |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 269 | 241 | 62 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 68 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 257 | 330 | 336 | 666 | 79 | 342 | 25 | 8 | 295 | 86 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 87 | 71 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 85 | 235 | 169 | 404 | 85 | 167 | 48 | 7 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A RAW | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 87 | 69 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 116 | 282 | 261 | 543 | 145 | 158 | 36 | 9 | 259 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 461 | 410 | 106 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 141 | 11 | 32 | 11 | 259 | 333 | 395 | 728 | 137 | 364 | 31 | 8 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 461 | 392 | 124 | 25 | 4 | 12 | 53 | 101 | 11 | 32 | 11 | 316 | 412 | 492 | 905 | 176 | 394 | 22 | 11 | 398 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 540 | 489 | 116 | 25 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 159 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 237 | 305 | 399 | 704 | 162 | 315 | 29 | 8 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 540 | 467 | 130 | 27 | 3 | 25 | 65 | 134 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 278 | 372 | 510 | 882 | 231 | 338 | 25 | 12 | 386 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 413 | 92 | 20 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 158 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 223 | 282 | 397 | 679 | 174 | 320 | 35 | 6 | 299 | 89 | -6 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.0 |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB RAW | 2 teams | — | 451 | 405 | 96 | 20 | 5 | 17 | 34 | 148 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 237 | 309 | 437 | 746 | 200 | 325 | 33 | 8 | 327 | 89 | -6 | +1 | -0 | -5 | +10 | 0.0 |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 477 | 434 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 124 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 251 | 310 | 373 | 683 | 122 | 329 | 26 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 477 | 425 | 119 | 26 | 1 | 11 | 33 | 107 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 280 | 350 | 424 | 774 | 144 | 351 | 22 | 7 | 343 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 346 | 83 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 100 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 240 | 319 | 327 | 645 | 87 | 327 | 26 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 390 | 335 | 89 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 45 | 89 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 266 | 360 | 373 | 733 | 107 | 348 | 23 | 12 | 332 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 22 | A MLE | Fayetteville Woodpeckers | — | 87 | 73 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 42 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 82 | 235 | 164 | 400 | 82 | 129 | 48 | 7 | 183 | 10 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 23 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 461 | 412 | 106 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 141 | 11 | 32 | 11 | 257 | 333 | 393 | 727 | 136 | 354 | 31 | 8 | 316 | 100 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 540 | 487 | 116 | 25 | 3 | 16 | 43 | 159 | 5 | 27 | 4 | 238 | 305 | 400 | 706 | 162 | 312 | 29 | 8 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 414 | 92 | 20 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 158 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 222 | 282 | 396 | 678 | 174 | 318 | 35 | 6 | 299 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 477 | 437 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 124 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 249 | 310 | 371 | 681 | 121 | 324 | 26 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 347 | 83 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 100 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 239 | 319 | 326 | 644 | 86 | 328 | 26 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 25 | MLB MLE | 2 teams | — | 451 | 414 | 92 | 20 | 5 | 14 | 26 | 158 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 222 | 282 | 396 | 678 | 174 | 318 | 35 | 6 | 299 | 89 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 477 | 437 | 109 | 21 | 1 | 10 | 24 | 124 | 13 | 12 | 3 | 249 | 310 | 371 | 681 | 121 | 324 | 26 | 5 | 298 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 27 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 390 | 347 | 83 | 19 | 1 | 3 | 35 | 100 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 239 | 319 | 326 | 644 | 86 | 328 | 26 | 9 | 290 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB MLE | HOU | 45% | 453 | 409 | 94 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 119 | 8 | 19 | 4 | 230 | 299 | 360 | 659 | 130 | 295 | 26 | 7 | 296 | 86 | -7 | +2 | +3 | -5 | +10 | 0.3 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 28 | MLB CTX | HOU | 45% | 107 | 96 | 22 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 233 | 302 | 363 | 665 | 130 | 300 | 26 | 7 | 298 | 86 | -2 | +1 | +1 | -1 | +2 | 0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 29 | MLB MLE | HOU | 53% | 350 | 316 | 72 | 14 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 93 | 6 | 13 | 3 | 227 | 296 | 353 | 649 | 126 | 293 | 27 | 7 | 292 | 84 | -7 | +1 | +1 | -4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB MLE | HOU | 58% | 337 | 305 | 68 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 90 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 223 | 292 | 344 | 636 | 121 | 291 | 27 | 7 | 287 | 80 | -8 | +1 | -0 | -4 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 29 | MLB CTX | HOU | 53% | 186 | 168 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 49 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 230 | 299 | 356 | 655 | 126 | 298 | 26 | 7 | 294 | 84 | -4 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 30 | MLB CTX | HOU | 58% | 195 | 176 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 52 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 226 | 295 | 347 | 642 | 121 | 295 | 27 | 7 | 289 | 80 | -5 | +1 | -0 | -2 | +4 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 868 | 786 | 185 | 40 | 7 | 17 | 58 | 255 | 14 | 19 | 7 | 235 | 299 | 369 | 668 | 134 | 324 | 29 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -14 | +1 | -1 | -18 | +19 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 589 | 139 | 30 | 5 | 13 | 43 | 191 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 236 | 299 | 370 | 669 | 134 | 325 | 29 | 7 | 297 | 87 | -11 | +1 | -1 | -14 | +14 | -1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 3331 | 2999 | 701 | 145 | 16 | 74 | 235 | 969 | 65 | 126 | 32 | 234 | 303 | 367 | 670 | 133 | 317 | 29 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -24 | +3 | +1 | -24 | +31 | -1.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 585 | 136 | 28 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 189 | 13 | 25 | 6 | 232 | 303 | 362 | 665 | 130 | 316 | 29 | 7 | 296 | 87 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -11 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 269 PAwOBA .344 → .295 (−49)K% 21.2% → 25.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.19% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.43% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 7.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.49% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 26.72% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 7.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×1.023 | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.71% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 1.20% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.023.
Result: wOBA .344 → .295; ISO .103 → .082; BABIP .370 → .342. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAABuffalo Bisons · 373 PAwOBA .323 → .274 (−49)K% 21.4% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.45% | ÷0.988 | ×1.200 | — | — | 26.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.51% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.36% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.68% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 2.57% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.89% | ÷1.007 | ×0.930 | ×1.003 | ×1.018 | 21.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.84% | ÷1.098 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.018 | 6.82% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.40% | ÷0.986 | ×0.970 | ×1.003 | ×1.018 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.81% | ÷0.847 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.37% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 101, 2B 120, 3B 97, K 98, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .323 → .274; ISO .137 → .110; BABIP .329 → .294. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 189 PAwOBA .392 → .337 (−55)K% 28.0% → 33.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.04% | ÷1.006 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.05% | ÷1.022 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 7.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.12% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 2.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.10% | ÷1.035 | ×0.930 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 20.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.42% | ÷0.953 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 6.06% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.92% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.050 | ×1.033 | 1.07% |
| Home runs /BIP | 11.93% | ÷0.903 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 9.55% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 81, 1B 107, 2B 91, 3B 80, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .392 → .337; ISO .296 → .247; BABIP .316 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AACorpus Christi Hooks · 365 PAwOBA .398 → .321 (−77)K% 22.2% → 25.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.19% | ÷1.049 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.82% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.05% | ÷1.011 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 8.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.012 | 0.72% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.75% | ÷1.018 | ×0.920 | ×1.031 | ×1.012 | 21.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.58% | ÷0.975 | ×0.840 | ×1.031 | ×1.012 | 7.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.43% | ÷1.058 | ×0.940 | ×1.031 | ×1.012 | 0.40% |
| Home runs /BIP | 8.15% | ÷1.322 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 5.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 112, K 110, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.031.
Result: wOBA .398 → .321; ISO .252 → .178; BABIP .344 → .310. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 138 PAwOBA .325 → .283 (−42)K% 32.6% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.61% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 39.12% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.59% | ÷1.028 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 8.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.45% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.32% | ÷0.981 | ×0.930 | ×1.041 | ×1.048 | 25.17% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.76% | ÷0.882 | ×0.830 | ×1.041 | ×1.048 | 6.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.056 | ×0.970 | ×1.041 | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.76% | ÷0.896 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 5.53% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 96, 2B 76, 3B 111, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .325 → .283; ISO .168 → .140; BABIP .329 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Asheville Tourists · 37 PAwOBA .348 → .263 (−85)K% 21.6% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.62% | ÷0.971 | ×1.310 | — | — | 29.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.41% | ÷1.033 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 3.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷0.968 | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 13.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.69% | ÷1.099 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.988 | 5.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 7.69% | ÷0.980 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.988 | 6.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.85% | ÷1.218 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 2.75% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 144, 1B 94, 2B 120, 3B 96, K 94, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .348 → .263; ISO .265 → .198; BABIP .308 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFayetteville Woodpeckers · 348 PAwOBA .381 → .312 (−68)K% 21.8% → 30.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.84% | ÷0.976 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.42% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.21% | ÷0.999 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 7.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.59% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 2.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.73% | ÷0.992 | ×0.920 | ×1.027 | ×0.990 | 26.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.73% | ÷0.930 | ×0.830 | ×1.027 | ×0.990 | 7.01% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.027 | ×0.990 | 1.10% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.09% | ÷0.949 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.41% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 98, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.027.
Result: wOBA .381 → .312; ISO .169 → .137; BABIP .379 → .349. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Asheville Tourists · 113 PAwOBA .426 → .329 (−98)K% 22.1% → 31.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.12% | ÷0.927 | ×1.310 | — | — | 31.28% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.50% | ÷0.933 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 7.39% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.77% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.99% | ÷1.031 | ×0.870 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 27.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.27% | ÷1.131 | ×0.780 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 8.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.41% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.038 | ×0.998 | 1.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.23% | ÷0.972 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.82% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 106, 2B 126, 3B 80, K 85, BB 87 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .426 → .329; ISO .198 → .157; BABIP .443 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).