Jude Warwick

SS Lakeland Flying Tigers

Age 21 L/R 6'1" / 170 lbs A HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2036

ETA2030MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	A/ROKDET	278	.257/.380/.345	3	28	57	—	.199/.299/.274
2026	20	ADET	446	.214/.303/.357	10	15	35	—	.160/.231/.259
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBDET	556	.172/.245/.266	8	14	45	-0.6
2028PROJ25% MLB	22	MLBDET	99	.176/.249/.276	2	3	52	-0.2
2029PROJ38% MLB	23	MLBDET	170	.181/.255/.289	3	5	57	-0.3

Next 3 projected WAR -1.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Arb-1$3M2034Ext$5M+1

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

Speed85

Max EV76

Whiff%49

Z-Con%42

BB%39

K%38

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.1, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 94%

CompsEsteban González (age 21) · Rubel Cespedes (age 21) · Jean Ramirez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 210 proj PA

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.170 / .243 / .263

PA210

HR3

SB5

K%34

BB%7

ISO94

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$6M ctrl surplus

Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-2M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	86	81	20	3	0	0	3	29	1	6	1	247	282	284	566	37	377	34	3	257	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Tigers	—	192	145	38	8	0	3	26	30	15	22	5	262	425	379	804	117	299	16	14	365	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	446	392	84	20	3	10	44	125	6	15	4	214	303	357	660	143	285	28	10	297	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	86	82	15	2	0	0	2	39	1	6	1	183	212	207	419	24	355	45	2	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Tigers	—	192	155	32	6	0	3	16	43	15	22	5	206	339	303	642	97	231	22	8	277	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	446	405	65	15	2	7	31	170	6	15	4	160	231	259	490	99	246	38	7	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	278	237	47	8	0	3	18	83	16	28	6	198	299	270	569	72	280	30	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	278	226	58	11	0	3	29	59	16	28	6	257	380	345	725	88	324	21	10	332	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	446	405	65	15	2	7	31	170	6	15	4	160	231	259	490	99	251	38	7	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	446	392	84	20	3	10	44	125	6	15	4	214	303	357	660	143	285	28	10	297	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	278	242	47	8	0	3	18	83	16	28	6	194	299	264	563	70	269	30	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	446	406	65	15	2	7	31	170	6	15	4	160	231	259	489	99	246	38	7	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	278	242	47	8	0	3	18	83	16	28	6	194	299	264	563	70	269	30	6	253	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Lakeland Flying Tigers	—	446	406	65	15	2	7	31	170	6	15	4	160	231	259	489	99	246	38	7	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	DET	0%	556	502	86	18	2	8	38	191	11	14	3	172	245	266	510	94	254	34	7	235	45	-36	+2	-2	+6	+12	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	25%	398	360	65	13	2	7	28	133	7	10	3	179	252	283	535	104	257	33	7	245	52	-23	+1	-1	+4	+9	-1.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	DET	38%	445	402	75	15	2	9	32	145	8	12	3	184	258	296	554	111	259	33	7	252	57	-23	+1	-0	+5	+10	-0.7
2030	24	MLB MLE	DET	44%	494	446	84	17	2	10	36	158	9	13	3	189	263	305	567	116	262	32	7	258	61	-23	+1	+1	+5	+11	-0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	DET	47%	550	494	95	19	2	12	41	173	10	14	3	192	266	311	578	119	264	31	7	262	64	-24	+2	+1	+6	+12	-0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	DET	49%	558	501	97	19	2	12	42	173	10	14	3	194	269	316	585	121	265	31	8	265	66	-23	+2	+1	+6	+12	-0.2
2033	27	MLB MLE	DET	49%	558	502	96	19	2	12	42	174	9	14	3	193	268	313	581	120	265	31	8	264	65	-23	+2	+1	+6	+12	-0.3
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	25%	99	90	15	3	0	2	7	33	2	3	1	176	249	276	526	101	253	33	7	241	52	-6	+0	-0	+1	+2	-0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	DET	38%	170	153	28	6	1	3	12	55	3	5	1	181	255	289	544	108	255	32	7	248	57	-9	+1	-0	+2	+4	-0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	DET	44%	217	195	36	7	1	4	16	69	4	6	1	185	260	297	557	112	258	32	7	254	61	-10	+1	+0	+2	+5	-0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	DET	47%	260	234	44	9	1	5	19	82	5	7	2	188	263	304	567	115	259	32	7	258	64	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	DET	49%	274	247	47	9	1	6	20	85	5	7	2	191	266	308	574	117	261	31	7	261	66	-11	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.1
2033	27	MLB CTX	DET	49%	274	246	47	9	1	6	21	85	5	7	2	190	265	306	571	116	260	31	8	260	65	-12	+1	+0	+3	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1294	1165	217	43	5	26	95	409	24	35	9	186	262	299	560	112	260	32	7	256	57	-58	+3	+1	+14	+28	-1.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	110	22	3	13	48	205	12	18	5	188	264	303	567	115	262	32	7	256	57	-29	+2	+1	+7	+14	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3937	3537	657	132	15	75	284	1281	79	125	29	186	262	295	557	109	264	33	7	253	57	-152	+9	+2	+34	+70	-3.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	108	22	2	12	47	211	13	21	5	185	261	291	552	106	263	32	7	253	57	-31	+2	+0	+7	+14	-0.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 446 PAwOBA .292 → .220 (−72)K% 28.0% → 38.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.03%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	38.12%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.87%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	6.91%
HBP% /PA	1.35%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.07%
Singles /BIP	19.10%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.958	×1.015	17.09%
Doubles /BIP	7.49%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.958	×1.015	6.05%
Triples /BIP	1.12%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.958	×1.015	0.99%
Home runs /BIP	3.75%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	3.04%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.

Result: wOBA .292 → .220; ISO .143 → .105; BABIP .285 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Tigers · 192 PAwOBA .366 → .277 (−89)K% 15.6% → 22.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	15.62%	÷1.001	×1.440	—	—	22.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.54%	÷0.996	×0.620	—	×0.995	8.39%
HBP% /PA	7.81%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	5.60%
Singles /BIP	23.48%	÷0.974	×0.820	×0.951	×0.995	18.70%
Doubles /BIP	6.96%	÷0.992	×0.720	×0.951	×0.995	4.78%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	×0.951	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.61%	÷0.880	×0.780	—	×0.995	2.30%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 95, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 100, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.951.

Result: wOBA .366 → .277; ISO .117 → .098; BABIP .299 → .231. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ALakeland Flying Tigers · 86 PAwOBA .253 → .198 (−55)K% 33.7% → 45.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.72%	÷0.998	×1.360	—	—	45.93%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	3.49%	÷0.945	×0.690	—	×1.030	2.62%
HBP% /PA	1.16%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.93%
Singles /BIP	32.69%	÷1.051	×0.920	×1.050	×1.030	30.94%
Doubles /BIP	5.77%	÷0.971	×0.830	×1.050	×1.030	5.33%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.910	×1.050	×1.030	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.864	×0.800	—	×1.030	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 73, 1B 110, 2B 94, 3B 130, K 100, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .253 → .198; ISO .037 → .029; BABIP .377 → .355. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#2Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	2.3	1,504	31	39	188	260	303	+16	+3	-0.9	-0.5
/162	664	13	17	+7.1	+1.5	-0.4	pk7: 0
#3Johnnie LeMaster'75-'87 * career totals — 11 seasons, 3,515 PA	5.3	3,515	22	94	218*	275*	313*	+37	-13	-3.1	-0.9
/162	664	4	18	+7.0	-2.4	-0.6	pk7: 1
#4Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1
#5Jim Mason'71-'79 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	12	2	204*	262*	306*	+18	-14	-4.1	-2.9
/162	664	5	1	+6.7	-5.3	-1.6	pk7: -2
#6Jackie Hernandez'65-'73 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,609 PA	2.4	1,609	12	25	212*	258*	298*	+16	-16	-5.1	-3.5
/162	664	5	10	+6.6	-6.8	-2.1	pk7: -2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Jude Warwick (OGILVIE)	21	—	—	—	—	170/243/263	93	254	3	5	34%	7%	45	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Esteban González 2024 · A	21	43→45	41→45	56→55	41	205/280/306	101	298	7	18	31%	7%	68	-1.0	211/269/331	120	298	10	24	31%	6%	70	-0.9	203/264/330	127	285	12	27	31%	6%	65	-0.8
✕Rubel Cespedes 2022 · A	21	32→42	39→45	49→40	36	166/219/248	82	252	6	6	36%	6%	31	-3.7	210/258/309	99	293	9	4	30%	6%	59	-1.6	215/263/317	102	288	10	3	28%	6%	61	-1.0
✕Jean Ramirez 2022 · A	21	42→49	37→40	51→65	45	195/276/272	76	295	4	19	32%	9%	59	-1.7	213/276/293	80	301	7	27	29%	7%	63	-1.4	209/271/274	65	290	6	31	28%	7%	53	-1.0
✕Jase Bowen 2022 · A	21	37→42	42→50	54→55	35	186/247/286	100	284	10	12	37%	5%	51	-2.2	197/249/316	119	284	14	16	34%	5%	59	-1.7	209/260/343	134	298	14	23	33%	6%	66	-0.7
✕Ricardo Méndez 2021 · A	21	44	39→45	54→50	40	208/268/296	88	312	7	13	34%	7%	60	-1.6	217/259/315	98	317	7	13	32%	5%	61	-1.5	212/252/306	95	305	6	14	31%	5%	53	-1.3
✕Michael Swinson 2011 · A	21	41	41→40	52→50	43	201/265/299	98	278	8	12	29%	7%	60	-1.6	201/265/274	73	267	4	10	24%	8%	54	-2.0	196/267/258	62	261	2	10	23%	9%	49	-1.1
✕Sammy Siani 2022 · A	21	40→49	42→45	52→55	49	195/287/299	105	291	10	11	34%	11%	70	-0.9	190/260/284	94	312	9	18	39%	8%	55	-2.0	210/264/314	104	271	10	21	26%	7%	61	-1.0
✕Derrick Loveless 2014 · A	21	37→47	38→45	53→50	42	176/244/264	87	271	4	5	35%	8%	44	-2.8	203/276/304	101	312	8	9	34%	9%	65	-1.2	192/275/292	101	297	8	8	35%	10%	61	-1.0
✕Noah Miller 2024 · A	21	40→47	38→40	51→50	47	191/267/270	79	268	5	11	29%	9%	55	-2.0	217/269/299	82	278	6	6	23%	7%	61	-1.5	224/272/309	85	279	7	4	21%	6%	63	-1.2
✕Michael Siani 2021 · A	22	43→45	38→45	54→60	41	208/264/286	78	288	6	21	29%	6%	56	-1.9	201/273/302	101	275	9	28	28%	8%	63	-1.3	211/284/306	95	276	9	33	25%	9%	67	-0.8
✕Luis Alexander Basabe 2018 · A	21	41→45	41→45	54→50	39	200/255/302	102	297	8	15	34%	6%	57	-1.8	205/269/312	107	318	9	14	36%	8%	65	-1.2	199/269/311	112	312	11	14	37%	8%	62	-0.8
✕Yohairo Cuevas 2024 · A	20	39→38	40	53→50	46	189/269/285	96	280	8	13	33%	9%	59	-1.6	194/280/279	85	302	5	15	34%	10%	62	-1.4	185/278/271	86	290	5	16	34%	10%	58	-1.1
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→51	39→45	59→55	46	195/272/287	91	280	4	17	30%	9%	60	-1.6	220/296/307	87	294	6	17	25%	9%	74	-0.6	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Justin Trapp 2012 · A	21	41→45	39→45	54→55	39	199/253/281	82	292	6	21	33%	6%	51	-2.2	214/269/314	100	296	9	16	29%	6%	65	-1.2	214/268/307	93	290	8	15	28%	5%	60	-1.3
✕Marcus Lee Sang 2022 · A	21	40→50	43→45	51→50	35	197/245/307	110	309	11	14	38%	6%	54	-2.0	208/267/323	115	328	12	14	38%	7%	67	-1.1	224/282/348	124	327	13	15	34%	6%	75	-0.4
✕Travis Swaggerty 2019 · A	21	39→46	41→45	50→55	40	192/251/290	98	279	8	7	33%	7%	53	-2.1	211/277/311	100	301	9	15	31%	8%	68	-1.0	209/278/308	99	307	7	19	32%	8%	63	-0.8
✕Manuel Geraldo 2018 · A	21	36→46	38→40	52→50	33	182/220/254	72	268	6	14	34%	4%	32	-3.7	217/250/298	81	326	7	14	34%	4%	53	-2.1	220/252/295	76	328	6	14	34%	4%	49	-2.0
✕David Calabrese 2023 · A	20	40→41	40→45	57→50	41	193/255/292	99	294	7	15	35%	7%	55	-2.0	188/260/303	115	277	12	13	34%	8%	60	-1.6	187/246/292	106	241	12	16	27%	7%	49	-1.2
✕Travis Witherspoon 2010 · A	21	37→47	42→45	56→55	31	185/227/286	101	289	9	10	39%	4%	42	-2.9	212/258/321	109	300	11	19	32%	5%	62	-1.4	218/269/333	115	295	13	25	29%	6%	66	-0.9
✕Jose Salas 2024 · A	21	40→43	39→45	54→55	40	194/259/277	83	275	7	21	31%	6%	53	-2.1	187/243/287	100	281	10	20	35%	5%	49	-2.4	173/229/282	108	262	12	23	37%	5%	41	-1.6

Jude Warwick

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps