Esteban González
CF Lake County Captains| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | A+/A2 orgs | 414 | .271/.341/.420 | 7 | 41 | 70 | — | .225/.282/.361 |
| 2025 | 22 | A+CLE | 447 | .272/.339/.430 | 9 | 24 | 64 | — | .215/.271/.327 |
| 2026 | 23 | A+CLE | 321 | .233/.338/.444 | 13 | 22 | 60 | — | .178/.262/.334 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBCLE | 1 | .196/.261/.322 | 0 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ30% MLB | 25 | MLBCLE | 59 | .199/.265/.328 | 1 | 2 | 67 | -0.0 | |
| 2029PROJ44% MLB | 26 | MLBCLE | 111 | .201/.268/.332 | 3 | 4 | 69 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 40
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | DSL Indians Red | — | 138 | 114 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 27 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 298 | 420 | 465 | 885 | 167 | 391 | 20 | 12 | 397 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 155 | 133 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 263 | 359 | 316 | 675 | 53 | 333 | 21 | 9 | 313 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK | ACL Guardians | — | 156 | 130 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 38 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 300 | 413 | 569 | 982 | 269 | 379 | 24 | 11 | 425 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 115 | 104 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 231 | 304 | 308 | 612 | 77 | 343 | 31 | 10 | 282 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 299 | 265 | 76 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 61 | 10 | 37 | 9 | 287 | 355 | 464 | 819 | 177 | 343 | 20 | 6 | 356 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 447 | 400 | 109 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 97 | 8 | 24 | 7 | 273 | 339 | 430 | 769 | 157 | 334 | 22 | 7 | 339 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Lake County Captains | — | 321 | 275 | 64 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 36 | 95 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 233 | 338 | 444 | 781 | 211 | 304 | 30 | 11 | 347 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians Red | — | 138 | 119 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 193 | 304 | 294 | 598 | 101 | 257 | 24 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 155 | 138 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 203 | 281 | 246 | 527 | 43 | 272 | 29 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 156 | 137 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 54 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 197 | 290 | 350 | 641 | 153 | 286 | 35 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 115 | 107 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 45 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 187 | 243 | 252 | 496 | 65 | 301 | 39 | 7 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | Lynchburg Hillcats | — | 299 | 271 | 65 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 84 | 10 | 37 | 9 | 240 | 297 | 402 | 699 | 162 | 301 | 28 | 4 | 294 | 85 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 447 | 410 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 121 | 8 | 24 | 7 | 215 | 271 | 327 | 598 | 112 | 277 | 27 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 321 | 287 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 121 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 178 | 263 | 334 | 597 | 157 | 252 | 38 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians Red | — | 138 | 119 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 193 | 304 | 294 | 598 | 101 | 267 | 24 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Indians Red | — | 138 | 114 | 34 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 17 | 27 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 298 | 420 | 465 | 885 | 167 | 391 | 20 | 12 | 397 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 155 | 138 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 203 | 281 | 246 | 527 | 43 | 287 | 29 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Guardians | — | 155 | 133 | 35 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 32 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 263 | 359 | 316 | 675 | 53 | 333 | 21 | 9 | 313 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 156 | 137 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 54 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 197 | 290 | 350 | 641 | 153 | 296 | 35 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK RAW | ACL Guardians | — | 156 | 130 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 38 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 300 | 413 | 569 | 982 | 269 | 379 | 24 | 11 | 425 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 378 | 84 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 129 | 10 | 41 | 13 | 222 | 279 | 349 | 629 | 127 | 313 | 31 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 414 | 369 | 100 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 97 | 10 | 41 | 13 | 271 | 341 | 420 | 761 | 149 | 343 | 23 | 7 | 336 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 447 | 410 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 121 | 8 | 24 | 7 | 215 | 271 | 327 | 598 | 112 | 282 | 27 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 447 | 400 | 109 | 28 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 97 | 8 | 24 | 7 | 273 | 339 | 430 | 769 | 157 | 334 | 22 | 7 | 339 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 321 | 287 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 121 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 178 | 263 | 334 | 597 | 157 | 261 | 38 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ RAW | Lake County Captains | — | 321 | 275 | 64 | 15 | 2 | 13 | 36 | 95 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 233 | 338 | 444 | 781 | 211 | 304 | 30 | 11 | 347 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Indians Red | — | 138 | 118 | 23 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 33 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 195 | 304 | 297 | 601 | 102 | 257 | 24 | 9 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 155 | 139 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 45 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 201 | 281 | 245 | 526 | 43 | 272 | 29 | 6 | 230 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Guardians | — | 156 | 137 | 27 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 54 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 197 | 290 | 350 | 641 | 153 | 286 | 35 | 6 | 277 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 381 | 84 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 129 | 10 | 41 | 13 | 220 | 279 | 346 | 626 | 126 | 301 | 31 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 447 | 412 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 121 | 8 | 24 | 7 | 214 | 271 | 325 | 597 | 112 | 277 | 27 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 321 | 285 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 121 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 179 | 263 | 337 | 599 | 158 | 252 | 38 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 414 | 381 | 84 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 129 | 10 | 41 | 13 | 220 | 279 | 346 | 626 | 126 | 301 | 31 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 447 | 412 | 88 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 121 | 8 | 24 | 7 | 214 | 271 | 325 | 597 | 112 | 277 | 27 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Lake County Captains | — | 321 | 285 | 51 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 25 | 121 | 8 | 22 | 3 | 179 | 263 | 337 | 599 | 158 | 252 | 38 | 8 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | CLE | 0% | 371 | 338 | 66 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 126 | 6 | 14 | 3 | 196 | 261 | 324 | 585 | 128 | 281 | 34 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -16 | +2 | +0 | +1 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | CLE | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 261 | 322 | 583 | 126 | 281 | 0 | 0 | 262 | 64 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | CLE | 30% | 196 | 178 | 34 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 65 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 199 | 265 | 330 | 595 | 131 | 282 | 33 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -8 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB MLE | CLE | 44% | 251 | 228 | 47 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 82 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 201 | 268 | 334 | 602 | 133 | 282 | 33 | 7 | 270 | 69 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB MLE | CLE | 49% | 283 | 258 | 53 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 92 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 203 | 270 | 335 | 605 | 133 | 282 | 33 | 7 | 272 | 70 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | CLE | 30% | 59 | 54 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 199 | 265 | 328 | 593 | 129 | 282 | 34 | 7 | 267 | 67 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 26 | MLB CTX | CLE | 44% | 111 | 101 | 21 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 36 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 201 | 268 | 332 | 600 | 131 | 282 | 32 | 6 | 270 | 69 | -4 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 27 | MLB CTX | CLE | 49% | 139 | 127 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 202 | 270 | 333 | 603 | 131 | 282 | 32 | 6 | 271 | 70 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 309 | 282 | 56 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 101 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 199 | 264 | 326 | 590 | 128 | 278 | 33 | 6 | 270 | 65 | -11 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 593 | 118 | 23 | 4 | 15 | 42 | 212 | 11 | 21 | 4 | 199 | 265 | 327 | 592 | 128 | 278 | 33 | 6 | 270 | 65 | -24 | +3 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2530 | 2286 | 465 | 97 | 23 | 48 | 160 | 799 | 61 | 152 | 40 | 203 | 274 | 329 | 603 | 126 | 286 | 32 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -34 | +3 | +0 | +3 | +19 | -0.8 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 587 | 119 | 25 | 6 | 12 | 41 | 205 | 16 | 39 | 10 | 203 | 273 | 327 | 600 | 124 | 285 | 32 | 6 | 264 | 65 | -25 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.6 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Lake County Captains · 321 PAwOBA .339 → .257 (−82)K% 29.6% → 37.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.60% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 37.59% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 7.95% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.49% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.96% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.89% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 16.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 6.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×0.955 | ×0.998 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 5.77% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .339 → .257; ISO .211 → .156; BABIP .304 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Lake County Captains · 447 PAwOBA .334 → .263 (−71)K% 21.7% → 27.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.70% | ÷1.020 | ×1.270 | — | — | 27.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.38% | ÷0.991 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.43% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.44% | ÷1.031 | ×0.920 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 19.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.24% | ÷1.138 | ×0.810 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 6.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.32% | ÷0.952 | ×0.850 | ×0.980 | ×1.012 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.97% | ÷1.011 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.38% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 90, K 104, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.980.
Result: wOBA .334 → .263; ISO .158 → .118; BABIP .334 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ALynchburg Hillcats · 299 PAwOBA .354 → .294 (−60)K% 20.4% → 28.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.40% | ÷0.985 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.02% | ÷1.041 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 4.05% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.34% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.04% | ÷1.056 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×1.015 | 19.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.941 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | ×1.015 | 7.30% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.906 | ×0.910 | ×0.979 | ×1.015 | 2.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.94% | ÷0.844 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 2.83% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 111, 2B 88, 3B 81, K 97, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .354 → .294; ISO .177 → .159; BABIP .343 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Lake County Captains · 115 PAwOBA .275 → .213 (−62)K% 31.3% → 38.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.30% | ÷1.023 | ×1.270 | — | — | 38.85% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.57% | ÷0.999 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 6.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.47% | ÷0.995 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 23.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.35% | ÷0.978 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 5.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.023 | ×0.850 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.190 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.02% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 105, K 105, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .275 → .213; ISO .077 → .054; BABIP .343 → .301. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL Guardians · 156 PAwOBA .417 → .277 (−140)K% 24.4% → 34.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.36% | ÷1.005 | ×1.440 | — | — | 34.91% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.90% | ÷1.030 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 6.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.13% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 3.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.74% | ÷1.024 | ×0.820 | ×0.998 | ×0.995 | 17.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.78% | ÷0.967 | ×0.720 | ×0.998 | ×0.995 | 7.24% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.925 | ×0.720 | ×0.998 | ×0.995 | 3.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.52% | ÷1.349 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 3.75% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 170, 1B 105, 2B 93, 3B 85, K 101, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.998.
Result: wOBA .417 → .277; ISO .269 → .166; BABIP .379 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ROKACL Guardians · 155 PAwOBA .310 → .230 (−80)K% 20.6% → 29.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.65% | ÷1.019 | ×1.440 | — | — | 29.17% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.03% | ÷1.013 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 5.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.87% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 2.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.70% | ÷0.998 | ×0.820 | ×1.010 | ×1.008 | 24.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.96% | ÷1.076 | ×0.720 | ×1.010 | ×1.008 | 2.70% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.720 | ×1.010 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.99% | ÷0.915 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.85% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 100, 2B 115, 3B 80, K 104, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .310 → .230; ISO .053 → .038; BABIP .333 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 DSLDSL Indians Red · 138 PAwOBA .387 → .261 (−126)K% 19.6% → 23.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.57% | ÷1.006 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.32% | ÷0.998 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 8.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 5.07% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 3.58% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.99% | ÷0.996 | ×0.680 | ×1.003 | ×1.008 | 15.86% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.34% | ÷0.982 | ×0.600 | ×1.003 | ×1.008 | 6.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 5.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.003 | ×1.008 | 3.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.017 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 99, 2B 96, 3B 100, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .387 → .261; ISO .167 → .103; BABIP .391 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).