Ben Cowles
SS Iowa Cubs| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AA/INTL2 orgs | 479 | .273/.364/.432 | 9 | 15 | 91 | — | .245/.319/.399 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAACWS | 527 | .235/.301/.371 | 9 | 18 | 44 | — | .191/.244/.287 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAACHC | 445 | .241/.316/.376 | 9 | 15 | 53 | — | .200/.259/.296 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 27 | MLBCHC | 16 | .212/.269/.319 | 0 | 0 | 64 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 28 | MLBCHC | 69 | .212/.270/.319 | 1 | 2 | 64 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 114 | 97 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 345 | 433 | 778 | 196 | 365 | 37 | 11 | 346 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 92 | 77 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 221 | 341 | 273 | 613 | 52 | 362 | 34 | 13 | 290 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Tampa Tarpons | — | 263 | 225 | 65 | 16 | 3 | 7 | 31 | 72 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 289 | 389 | 480 | 869 | 191 | 395 | 27 | 12 | 385 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 444 | 374 | 95 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 55 | 122 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 254 | 362 | 393 | 755 | 139 | 341 | 27 | 12 | 338 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 84 | 69 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 290 | 410 | 551 | 960 | 261 | 381 | 29 | 14 | 415 | 167 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 395 | 339 | 97 | 25 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 70 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 286 | 378 | 457 | 835 | 171 | 331 | 18 | 10 | 368 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Mesa Solar Sox | — | 84 | 75 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 213 | 298 | 320 | 618 | 107 | 281 | 21 | 10 | 283 | 78 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | — | 527 | 480 | 113 | 30 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 152 | 7 | 18 | 8 | 235 | 301 | 371 | 672 | 135 | 325 | 29 | 7 | 301 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 445 | 394 | 95 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 104 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 241 | 316 | 376 | 691 | 135 | 302 | 23 | 8 | 307 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 114 | 101 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 168 | 257 | 307 | 564 | 139 | 323 | 50 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 92 | 82 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 171 | 253 | 220 | 472 | 49 | 309 | 43 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 263 | 236 | 50 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 100 | 6 | 14 | 5 | 212 | 290 | 352 | 642 | 140 | 331 | 38 | 8 | 276 | 73 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Hudson Valley Renegades | — | 444 | 399 | 77 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 30 | 159 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 193 | 263 | 303 | 566 | 110 | 274 | 36 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 395 | 351 | 86 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 88 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 245 | 319 | 399 | 718 | 154 | 285 | 22 | 7 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 527 | 491 | 94 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 183 | 7 | 18 | 8 | 191 | 244 | 287 | 531 | 96 | 289 | 35 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 445 | 405 | 81 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 125 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 200 | 259 | 296 | 555 | 96 | 264 | 28 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 114 | 101 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 168 | 257 | 307 | 564 | 139 | 333 | 50 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Tampa Tarpons | — | 114 | 97 | 23 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 237 | 345 | 433 | 778 | 196 | 365 | 37 | 11 | 346 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 355 | 317 | 63 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 140 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 199 | 280 | 309 | 590 | 110 | 333 | 39 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 355 | 302 | 82 | 18 | 4 | 7 | 43 | 103 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 272 | 377 | 427 | 804 | 156 | 387 | 29 | 12 | 361 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 474 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 189 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 190 | 262 | 293 | 555 | 103 | 283 | 36 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 528 | 443 | 115 | 22 | 3 | 14 | 67 | 146 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 260 | 369 | 418 | 787 | 158 | 347 | 28 | 13 | 351 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 428 | 102 | 25 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 106 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 238 | 311 | 381 | 692 | 143 | 289 | 22 | 7 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 479 | 414 | 113 | 31 | 4 | 9 | 49 | 88 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 273 | 364 | 432 | 796 | 159 | 322 | 18 | 10 | 353 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 527 | 491 | 94 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 183 | 7 | 18 | 8 | 191 | 244 | 287 | 531 | 96 | 293 | 35 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | Charlotte Knights | — | 527 | 480 | 113 | 30 | 4 | 9 | 38 | 152 | 7 | 18 | 8 | 235 | 301 | 371 | 672 | 135 | 325 | 29 | 7 | 301 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 445 | 405 | 81 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 125 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 200 | 259 | 296 | 555 | 96 | 270 | 28 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | Iowa Cubs | — | 445 | 394 | 95 | 24 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 104 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 241 | 316 | 376 | 691 | 135 | 302 | 23 | 8 | 307 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Tampa Tarpons | — | 114 | 101 | 17 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 168 | 257 | 307 | 564 | 139 | 323 | 50 | 7 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 355 | 316 | 63 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 140 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 199 | 280 | 310 | 591 | 111 | 325 | 39 | 8 | 260 | 62 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 528 | 477 | 90 | 15 | 2 | 10 | 36 | 189 | 10 | 26 | 4 | 189 | 262 | 291 | 553 | 103 | 274 | 36 | 7 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 431 | 102 | 25 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 106 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 237 | 311 | 378 | 689 | 142 | 285 | 22 | 7 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 527 | 488 | 94 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 183 | 7 | 18 | 8 | 193 | 244 | 289 | 533 | 96 | 289 | 35 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 445 | 410 | 81 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 125 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 198 | 259 | 293 | 551 | 95 | 264 | 28 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 479 | 431 | 102 | 25 | 3 | 10 | 35 | 106 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 237 | 311 | 378 | 689 | 142 | 285 | 22 | 7 | 307 | 94 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Charlotte Knights | — | 527 | 488 | 94 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 183 | 7 | 18 | 8 | 193 | 244 | 289 | 533 | 96 | 289 | 35 | 5 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 445 | 410 | 81 | 19 | 1 | 6 | 26 | 125 | 6 | 15 | 4 | 198 | 259 | 293 | 551 | 95 | 264 | 28 | 6 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | CHC | 10% | 380 | 350 | 73 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 110 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 210 | 267 | 316 | 583 | 106 | 286 | 29 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +8 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | CHC | 10% | 16 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 269 | 319 | 588 | 107 | 290 | 31 | 6 | 265 | 64 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | CHC | 31% | 222 | 204 | 43 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 64 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 210 | 268 | 315 | 583 | 106 | 285 | 29 | 6 | 263 | 64 | -9 | +0 | -1 | +2 | +5 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | CHC | 31% | 69 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 270 | 319 | 589 | 107 | 289 | 29 | 6 | 265 | 64 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 69 | 64 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 203 | 261 | 297 | 558 | 94 | 279 | 29 | 6 | 265 | 61 | -3 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 603 | 122 | 28 | 0 | 9 | 38 | 188 | 9 | 19 | 9 | 202 | 260 | 294 | 554 | 91 | 278 | 29 | 6 | 265 | 61 | -28 | +0 | -2 | +7 | +14 | -0.9 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2825 | 2563 | 520 | 119 | 15 | 44 | 182 | 909 | 50 | 98 | 28 | 203 | 269 | 313 | 582 | 110 | 291 | 32 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -16 | +1 | -1 | +4 | +8 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 590 | 119 | 27 | 3 | 10 | 42 | 209 | 12 | 23 | 6 | 202 | 269 | 308 | 578 | 107 | 289 | 32 | 6 | 258 | 61 | -28 | +1 | -1 | +7 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIowa Cubs · 445 PAwOBA .302 → .247 (−54)K% 23.4% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.37% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 28.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 5.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.35% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.03% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.961 | ×1.018 | 19.14% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.28% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.961 | ×1.018 | 6.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.961 | ×1.018 | 0.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 2.21% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .302 → .247; ISO .135 → .103; BABIP .302 → .264. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAACharlotte Knights · 527 PAwOBA .294 → .233 (−61)K% 28.8% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.84% | ÷0.996 | ×1.200 | — | — | 34.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.21% | ÷0.984 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 5.22% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.33% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 1.29% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.34% | ÷1.002 | ×0.930 | ×0.962 | ×1.033 | 19.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.15% | ÷0.980 | ×0.830 | ×0.962 | ×1.033 | 7.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.22% | ÷0.961 | ×0.970 | ×0.962 | ×1.033 | 1.22% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.74% | ÷1.320 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 1.50% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 164, 1B 100, 2B 96, 3B 92, K 99, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.962.
Result: wOBA .294 → .233; ISO .135 → .094; BABIP .325 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AATennessee Smokies · 395 PAwOBA .364 → .307 (−56)K% 17.7% → 22.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.72% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 22.18% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.38% | ÷0.959 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 7.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.28% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 1.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.30% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | ×0.955 | ×1.012 | 19.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.29% | ÷1.059 | ×0.910 | ×0.955 | ×1.012 | 7.72% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.12% | ÷0.985 | ×0.880 | ×0.955 | ×1.012 | 0.96% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.35% | ÷0.854 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.17% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.955.
Result: wOBA .364 → .307; ISO .171 → .153; BABIP .331 → .285. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 444 PAwOBA .335 → .247 (−88)K% 27.5% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.48% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 35.81% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.39% | ÷1.092 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 6.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.80% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 1.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.79% | ÷1.004 | ×0.870 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 21.44% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.060 | ×0.780 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 5.04% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.79% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×0.961 | ×0.998 | 0.72% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.97% | ÷1.006 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.46% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 101, 2B 112, 3B 80, K 101, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.961.
Result: wOBA .335 → .247; ISO .139 → .112; BABIP .341 → .274. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ATampa Tarpons · 263 PAwOBA .377 → .276 (−101)K% 27.4% → 38.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.38% | ÷0.975 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.20% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.79% | ÷1.056 | ×0.690 | — | — | 7.71% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.28% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.49% | ÷1.085 | ×0.920 | ×0.995 | — | 21.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.46% | ÷0.989 | ×0.830 | ×0.995 | — | 8.73% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.96% | ÷0.937 | ×0.910 | ×0.995 | — | 1.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.58% | ÷1.026 | ×0.800 | — | — | 3.57% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 117, 2B 98, 3B 87, K 95, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.995.
Result: wOBA .377 → .276; ISO .191 → .142; BABIP .395 → .331. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 92 PAwOBA .287 → .214 (−73)K% 33.7% → 43.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.70% | ÷1.015 | ×1.310 | — | — | 43.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.04% | ÷0.976 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.12% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.17% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 1.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.43% | ÷1.084 | ×0.870 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 25.76% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷0.895 | ×0.780 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 4.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.17% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×1.043 | ×1.012 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.014 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 117, 2B 79, 3B 106, K 103, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .287 → .214; ISO .052 → .044; BABIP .362 → .309. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ATampa Tarpons · 114 PAwOBA .340 → .244 (−96)K% 36.8% → 50.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.84% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 50.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.53% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 7.37% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.51% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.78% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.999 | ×1.015 | 20.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 12.73% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.999 | ×1.015 | 10.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.999 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 5.91% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.
Result: wOBA .340 → .244; ISO .196 → .133; BABIP .365 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .