Oliver Dunn

3B Durham Bulls
Age 29 L/R 5'10" / 207 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.412 · Ctrl thru 2032
Overview
AAAPre-ArbFA 2033
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202426AAA/INTL2 orgs59.216/.322/.3331259—.267/.333/.433
202426MLBMIL104.221/.282/.31613700.1
202527AAAMIL465.208/.315/.33882549—.177/.259/.273
202527MLBMIL41.167/.211/.2220115-0.2
202628AAATB477.238/.343/.430192066—.195/.273/.329
2027PROJ10% MLB29MLBTB16.195/.271/.3070163-0.0
2028PROJ27% MLB30MLBTB74.194/.269/.3041362-0.2
Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1  ·  Next 2 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2032Service0.412First FA2033
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Ext$0.8M2030Ext$0.2M2031Ext$0.4M2032Ext$0.6M
Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2026
Speed73
Bat Spd65
Avg EV37
Barrel%14
xwOBA10
CompsMark Contreras (age 29) · Jim Haley (age 29) · Drew Jackson (age 29)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†63
AVG/OBP/SLG.195 / .271 / .307
PA16
HR0
K%31
BB%6
BABIP287
ISO115
MLB%10%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -6.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-7BATRUN: +1.3 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+1RUNFLD: -0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)-0FLDPOS: +0.6 runs (Positional adjustment)+1POSREP: +3.4 runs (Replacement-level credit)+3REPTotal WAR: -0.10-0.1WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026
CONTACT35
xAVG
100.207
POWER45
Barrel%
143.6
Avg EV
3788.1
Bat Spd
6572.9
EYE55
scouting grade only
SPEED60
Sprint
7328.4
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   Pre-Arb
MLB Debut   2024
Service   0.412 yrs.days
Team Control Through   2032
First FA Year   2033
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2028Pre-Arb$0.8M———
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.8M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
201921 ACharleston RiverDogs — 140118 26501 19351 35 220333288621 68301 2514 290 31 — — — — — —
202123 AASomerset Patriots — 11899 18404 17400 51 182302343645 162250 3414 291 42 — — — — — —
202123 A+Hudson Valley Renegades — 137110 23343 26371 50 209365391756 182286 2719 344 61 — — — — — —
202224 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 1914 1001 481 00 71316286602 214 4221 295 23 — — — — — —
202224 AASomerset Patriots — 7766 22812 10261 31 3334295761.004 242526 3413 438 122 — — — — — —
202325 AAReading Fightin Phils — 505417 11327421 821395 165 271397506903 235357 2816 398 99 — — — — — —
202325 INTLScottsdale Scorpions — 8873 25642 15260 120 3424556161.071 274511 3017 461 198 — — — — — —
202426 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 10495 21221 6402 30 221282316597 95370 386 269 70 -4 +1 +2 +1 +2 0.1
202426 AAANashville Sounds — 3329 9301 490 21 310394517911 207421 2712 401 101 — — — — — —
202426 INTLGigantes del Cibao — 2622 2000 490 01 9123191322 154 3515 177 6 — — — — — —
202527 MLBMilwaukee Brewers — 4136 6200 2110 10 167211222433 56231 275 185 15 -4 +0 -1 +2 +1 -0.2
202527 AAANashville Sounds — 465400 831858 541469 255 207315338652 130305 3112 299 49 — — — — — —
202628 AAADurham Bulls — 477407 9717219 561429 204 238343430773 192315 3012 343 66 — — — — — —
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career— — 145131 27421 8512 40 206262290552 84325 356 246 52 -8 +1 +1 +2 +3 -0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
201921 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 140125 21401 12481 35 168246224470 56254 349 214 31 — — — — — —
202123 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 118105 16403 11480 51 152233276509 124233 419 231 42 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLEHudson Valley Renegades — 137118 18232 18501 50 153270271541 119253 3613 258 61 — — — — — —
202224 AAA MLEScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders — 1916 1001 2101 00 62211250461 188 5311 202 23 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLESomerset Patriots — 7769 19711 7321 31 275351449800 174490 429 348 122 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLEReading Fightin Phils — 505441 9923415 581705 165 224321397718 172323 3411 314 99 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 10495 21221 6402 30 221282316597 95370 386 272 70 -4 +1 +2 +1 +2 0.1
202426 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 3330 8201 3110 21 267333433767 167384 339 318 101 — — — — — —
202527 MLB MLEMilwaukee Brewers — 4136 6200 2110 10 167211222433 56231 275 190 15 -4 +0 -1 +2 +1 -0.2
202527 AAA MLENashville Sounds — 465418 741555 371739 255 177259273531 96287 378 240 49 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 477426 8314213 371709 204 195273329602 134281 368 266 66 — — — — — —
201921 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 140125 21401 12481 35 168246224470 56260 349 214 31 — — — — — —
201921 A RAWCharleston RiverDogs — 140118 26501 19351 35 220333288621 68301 2514 290 31 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLE2 teams — 255223 35635 29981 101 157257278535 121248 3811 246 52 — — — — — —
202123 A+ RAW2 teams — 255209 41747 43771 101 196336368704 172270 3017 320 52 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLE2 teams — 9685 20712 9412 31 235323412735 176429 439 319 102 — — — — — —
202224 AA RAW2 teams — 9680 23813 14342 31 287406525931 238465 3515 410 102 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLE2 teams — 593519 11627418 681995 285 224319395714 171323 3411 314 99 — — — — — —
202325 AA RAW2 teams — 593490 13833823 971655 285 282405522928 241380 2816 407 99 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLE3 teams — 163150 34522 10612 52 227284327611 100368 376 283 77 -4 +0 +2 +1 +4 0.2
202426 MLB RAW3 teams — 163146 32522 14582 52 219296322618 103349 369 281 77 -4 +0 +2 +1 +4 0.2
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 506454 801755 391849 265 176255269524 93282 368 236 46 — — — — — —
202527 AAA RAW2 teams — 506436 892058 561579 265 204307328635 124298 3111 290 46 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 477426 8314213 371709 204 195273329602 134286 368 266 66 — — — — — —
202628 AAA RAWDurham Bulls — 477407 9717219 561429 204 238343430773 192315 3012 343 66 — — — — — —
201921 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 140126 21401 12481 35 167246222469 56254 349 214 31 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLE2 teams — 255223 35635 29981 101 157257278535 121244 3811 246 52 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLE2 teams — 9685 20712 9412 31 235323412735 176393 439 319 102 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLE2 teams — 593515 11627418 681995 285 225319398717 173323 3411 314 99 — — — — — —
202426 MLB MLE3 teams — 163150 34522 10612 52 227284327611 100374 376 283 77 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 506453 801755 391849 265 177255269524 93282 368 236 46 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 477428 8314213 371709 204 194273327600 133281 368 266 66 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 MLB MLE3 teams — 163150 34522 10612 52 227284327611 100374 376 283 77 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLE2 teams — 506453 801755 391849 265 177255269524 93282 368 236 46 — — — — — —
202628 AAA MLEDurham Bulls — 477428 8314213 371709 204 194273327600 133281 368 266 66 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLETB 10% 380342 661237 291316 163 193269307576 114283 348 262 63 -17 +2 -0 +1 +8 -0.1
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXTB 10% 1615 2000 150 10 195271307577 112287 316 263 63 -1 +0 -0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLETB 27% 272245 47825 21934 102 192268304572 111281 348 260 62 -12 +1 -2 +1 +6 -0.6
202830 MLB CTXTB 27% 7467 12201 6251 31 194269304573 110285 348 261 62 -3 +0 -1 +0 +2 -0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 219198 39622 14763 71 197260278538 81306 356 251 68 -12 +1 +0 +3 +5 -0.3
/ 162G— A+C — 650588 1161866 422269 213 197262279541 82306 356 251 68 -34 +3 +1 +8 +14 -0.9
Career— MLE — 26572366 463932054 23794736 11226 196279320599 125298 369 268 68 -27 +3 -1 +4 +12 -0.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650579 11323513 582329 276 195279320598 124298 369 268 68 -31 +3 -1 +4 +14 -1.1

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAADurham Bulls · 477 PAwOBA .335 → .266 (−69)K% 29.8% → 35.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA29.77%÷1.000×1.200——35.72%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.53%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9827.81%
HBP% /PA1.89%—×0.940—×0.9821.74%
Singles /BIP22.26%÷1.000×0.930×1.026×0.98220.86%
Doubles /BIP6.42%÷1.000×0.830×1.026×0.9825.36%
Triples /BIP0.75%÷1.000×0.970×1.026×0.9820.74%
Home runs /BIP7.17%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9824.93%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 27.2 → −1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .335 → .266; ISO .192 → .139; BABIP .315 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAANashville Sounds · 465 PAwOBA .292 → .240 (−52)K% 31.4% → 37.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.40%÷1.010×1.200——37.29%
BB% (unintentional) /PA11.61%÷1.000×0.690—×0.9927.95%
HBP% /PA1.94%—×0.940—×0.9921.80%
Singles /BIP20.47%÷0.983×0.930×1.030×0.99219.80%
Doubles /BIP7.09%÷0.973×0.830×1.030×0.9926.18%
Triples /BIP1.97%÷0.900×0.970×1.030×0.9922.17%
Home runs /BIP3.15%÷1.111×0.700—×0.9921.97%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 97, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 102, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.

Result: wOBA .292 → .240; ISO .130 → .101; BABIP .305 → .287. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAANashville Sounds · 33 PAwOBA .391 → .318 (−73)K% 27.3% → 33.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.27%÷0.983×1.200——33.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.12%÷1.014×0.690—×1.0038.27%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0030.00%
Singles /BIP25.00%÷0.951×0.930—×1.00324.51%
Doubles /BIP15.00%÷1.010×0.830—×1.00312.36%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.150×0.970—×1.0030.00%
Home runs /BIP5.00%÷0.909×0.700—×1.0033.86%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 90, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 97, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .391 → .318; ISO .207 → .159; BABIP .421 → .384. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 505 PAwOBA .388 → .314 (−74)K% 27.5% → 33.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.52%÷1.000×1.220——33.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA16.04%÷0.975×0.700—×0.98811.38%
HBP% /PA0.99%—×0.850—×0.9880.83%
Singles /BIP21.94%÷1.017×0.970×1.012×0.98820.94%
Doubles /BIP9.71%÷0.999×0.860×1.012×0.9888.36%
Triples /BIP1.44%÷1.005×0.950×1.012×0.9881.36%
Home runs /BIP7.55%÷1.050×0.780—×0.9885.54%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 101, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.

Result: wOBA .388 → .314; ISO .235 → .182; BABIP .357 → .323. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AASomerset Patriots · 77 PAwOBA .426 → .348 (−78)K% 33.8% → 41.3%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.77%÷0.998×1.220——41.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.99%÷0.985×0.700—×0.9989.22%
HBP% /PA1.30%—×0.850—×0.9981.10%
Singles /BIP27.50%÷0.983×0.970—×0.99827.08%
Doubles /BIP20.00%÷0.972×0.860—×0.99817.65%
Triples /BIP2.50%÷0.969×0.950—×0.9982.45%
Home runs /BIP5.00%÷1.032×0.780—×0.9983.77%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 97, 2B 94, 3B 94, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .426 → .348; ISO .242 → .191; BABIP .526 → .490. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAScranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders · 19 PAwOBA .266 → .202 (−65)K% 42.1% → 50.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA42.11%÷1.001×1.200——50.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA15.79%÷1.066×0.690—×1.03310.56%
HBP% /PA5.26%—×0.940—×1.0335.11%
Singles /BIP0.00%÷1.047×0.930—×1.0330.00%
Doubles /BIP0.00%÷0.988×0.830—×1.0330.00%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.970—×1.0330.00%
Home runs /BIP16.67%÷1.006×0.700—×1.03311.98%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 101, 1B 109, 2B 98, 3B 100, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .266 → .202; ISO .214 → .165; BABIP .000 → .000. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Hudson Valley Renegades · 137 PAwOBA .334 → .258 (−76)K% 27.0% → 36.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.01%÷1.000×1.350——36.46%
BB% (unintentional) /PA18.25%÷1.000×0.710—×0.98812.80%
HBP% /PA0.73%—×0.810—×0.9880.58%
Singles /BIP17.81%÷1.000×0.910×1.025×0.98816.41%
Doubles /BIP4.11%÷1.000×0.830×1.025×0.9883.45%
Triples /BIP5.48%÷1.000×0.820×1.025×0.9884.55%
Home runs /BIP4.11%÷1.000×0.830—×0.9883.37%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.025.

Result: wOBA .334 → .258; ISO .182 → .142; BABIP .286 → .253. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AASomerset Patriots · 118 PAwOBA .287 → .231 (−56)K% 33.9% → 40.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA33.90%÷1.024×1.220——40.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA14.41%÷1.036×0.690—×1.0129.71%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.850—×1.0120.00%
Singles /BIP16.95%÷1.008×0.940×0.997×1.01215.94%
Doubles /BIP6.78%÷0.905×0.870×0.997×1.0126.57%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.900×0.920×0.997×1.0120.00%
Home runs /BIP6.78%÷1.053×0.780—×1.0125.08%

Factors used: level-wide AA factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 111, 1B 102, 2B 81, 3B 80, K 105, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .287 → .231; ISO .162 → .130; BABIP .250 → .233. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .