Oliver Dunn — OGILVIE

Oliver Dunn3B Durham Bulls

Age 28 L/R 5'10" / 207 lbs AAA HR -6%H +4% Svc 2.000S2 · Ctrl thru 2029 ILReassigned to Minors (RM)

2026 ROS PROJECTION470 act + 230 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†90

AVG/OBP/SLG.220 / .298 / .380

PA230

HR7

SB10

K%32

BB%9

BABIP304

ISO161

MLB%55%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2026

CONTACT35

Whiff%

3712.4%

xwOBA

100.253

POWER45

Barrel%

143.6

Avg EV

3788.1

Bat Spd

6572.9

EYE55

Chase%

9021.2%

SPEED60

Sprint

7328.4

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb SUPER-2

MLB Debut 2024

Service 2.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026ROS	Arb-1	$0.1M	+0.6	$2M	+$2M
2027	Arb-2	$3M	+1.6	$12M	+$9M
2028	Arb-3	$5M	+1.4	$10M	+$6M
2029	Arb-4	$6M	+1.1	$7M	+$3M
Totals		$14M		$31M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	140	125	21	4	0	1	12	50	1	3	5	168	246	224	470	56	267	36	9	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	21	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	140	118	26	5	0	1	19	35	1	3	5	220	333	288	621	68	301	25	14	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	255	223	36	7	3	6	29	99	1	10	1	161	261	300	561	139	252	39	11	248	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	255	209	41	7	4	7	43	77	1	10	1	196	336	368	704	172	270	30	17	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	2 teams	—	96	85	19	7	1	2	9	43	2	3	1	224	312	400	713	176	425	45	9	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	2 teams	—	96	80	23	8	1	3	14	34	2	3	1	287	406	525	931	238	465	35	15	410	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	2 teams	—	593	518	111	26	4	19	69	211	5	28	5	214	312	390	702	176	318	36	12	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	2 teams	—	593	490	138	33	8	23	97	165	5	28	5	282	405	522	928	241	380	28	16	407	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	MLB	3 teams	—	163	150	34	5	2	2	10	61	2	5	2	227	284	327	611	100	368	37	6	286	77	-4	+0	+2	+1	+5	0.3
2024	26	MLB	3 teams	—	163	146	32	5	2	2	14	58	2	5	2	219	296	322	618	103	349	36	9	281	74	-5	+0	+2	+1	+5	0.2
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	506	454	83	18	6	5	39	183	9	26	5	183	261	282	543	99	292	36	8	244	45	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	2 teams	—	506	436	89	20	5	8	56	157	9	26	5	204	307	328	635	124	298	31	11	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AAA	TB	—	470	417	100	18	3	19	43	145	6	22	3	240	320	434	754	194	318	31	9	325	107	+3	+3	+0	+2	+13	2.2
YTD	28	AAA	TB	—	470	395	109	21	3	22	65	121	6	22	3	276	386	511	898	235	343	26	14	392	158	+31	+3	+0	+2	+13	5.0
ROS	28	AAA	TB	55%	230	205	45	8	2	7	20	74	3	10	2	220	298	380	679	161	303	32	9	302	90	-3	+1	-0	+1	+7	0.6
ROS	28	MLB	TB	55%	127	113	25	4	1	4	11	41	2	6	1	221	302	381	682	159	307	32	9	293	82	-3	+1	-0	+0	+4	0.2
FULL	28	AAA	TB	—	597	530	125	22	4	23	54	186	8	28	4	236	316	423	739	187	315	31	9	318	101	+1	+4	-0	+2	+17	2.4
TOT	28	AAA	TB	—	700	622	145	26	5	26	63	219	9	32	5	233	313	416	729	183	313	31	9	317	101	+1	+4	-0	+2	+20	2.8
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	TB	54%	660	588	130	24	5	19	58	207	9	25	4	221	301	376	677	155	301	31	9	302	89	-8	+3	-2	+2	+19	1.5
2028	30	MLB	TB	53%	660	589	129	24	4	19	58	204	8	23	4	219	298	370	668	151	299	31	9	301	88	-9	+3	-2	+2	+19	1.3
2029	31	MLB	TB	52%	660	589	128	24	4	18	58	204	8	20	3	217	296	363	660	146	296	31	9	298	86	-11	+3	-3	+2	+19	1.1
2030	32	MLB	TB	52%	660	589	126	23	4	18	58	205	8	16	3	214	293	358	651	144	292	31	9	293	82	-13	+2	-4	+2	+19	0.6
2031	33	MLB	TB	52%	573	511	107	19	3	15	50	181	7	11	2	209	289	346	635	137	287	32	9	286	77	-15	+1	-4	+2	+16	0.0
2032	34	MLB	TB	47%	484	433	88	15	3	12	42	156	6	7	1	203	283	335	618	132	281	32	9	277	70	-16	+1	-5	+2	+14	-0.5
2027	29	MLB	TB	54%	353	314	71	13	3	10	31	111	5	14	2	226	306	382	688	156	305	31	9	293	82	-7	+2	-1	+1	+10	0.5
2028	30	MLB	TB	53%	348	310	69	12	3	10	31	108	4	12	2	223	301	377	679	155	302	31	9	292	81	-7	+2	-1	+1	+10	0.4
2029	31	MLB	TB	52%	344	307	67	12	2	9	30	106	4	10	2	218	296	358	654	140	299	31	9	289	79	-8	+1	-2	+1	+10	0.3
2030	32	MLB	TB	52%	342	305	66	12	2	9	30	106	4	9	1	216	295	357	652	141	296	31	9	284	76	-9	+1	-2	+1	+10	0.1
2031	33	MLB	TB	52%	296	264	55	9	2	7	26	93	4	6	1	208	289	337	626	129	291	31	9	278	71	-10	+1	-2	+1	+8	-0.2
2032	34	MLB	TB	47%	228	203	41	7	1	5	20	73	3	3	1	202	283	320	603	118	284	32	9	269	64	-9	+0	-2	+1	+6	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2183	1947	421	73	16	55	187	689	28	64	10	216	294	355	649	139	301	32	9	283	75	-62	+9	-9	+10	+62	0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	125	22	5	16	56	205	8	19	3	216	294	353	647	138	300	32	9	283	75	-19	+3	-3	+3	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	5680	5059	1057	204	41	143	512	1878	69	187	38	209	290	350	641	141	299	33	9	287	78	-141	+22	-19	+20	+161	4.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	121	23	5	16	59	215	8	21	4	209	291	349	640	140	299	33	9	287	78	-16	+3	-2	+2	+18	0.5

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2019	21	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	140	118	26	5	0	1	19	35	1	3	5	220	333	288	621	68	301	25	14	290	80	-3	-1	—	—	+4	-0.1
2021	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	118	99	18	4	0	4	17	40	0	5	1	182	302	343	645	162	250	34	14	291	81	-3	+1	—	—	+3	0.1
2021	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	137	110	23	3	4	3	26	37	1	5	0	209	365	391	756	182	286	27	19	344	122	+3	+1	—	—	+4	0.8
2022	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	19	14	1	0	0	1	4	8	1	0	0	71	316	286	602	214		42	21	295	84	-0	+0	—	—	+1	0.0
2022	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	77	66	22	8	1	2	10	26	1	3	1	333	429	576	1.004	242	526	34	13	438	193	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.1
2023	25	AA	Reading Fightin Phils	—	505	417	113	27	4	21	82	139	5	16	5	271	397	506	903	235	357	28	16	398	163	+36	+1	—	—	+14	5.2
2023	25	INTL	Scottsdale Scorpions	—	88	73	25	6	4	2	15	26	0	12	0	342	455	616	1.071	274	511	30	17	461	211	+11	+2	—	—	+2	1.6
2024	26	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	104	95	21	2	2	1	6	40	2	3	0	221	282	316	597	95	370	38	6	269	64	-4	+1	+2	+1	+3	0.2
2024	26	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	33	29	9	3	0	1	4	9	0	2	1	310	394	517	911	207	421	27	12	401	165	+2	+0	—	—	+1	0.3
2024	26	INTL	Gigantes del Cibao	—	26	22	2	0	0	0	4	9	0	0	1	91	231	91	322		154	35	15	177	-6	-3	-0	—	—	+1	-0.3
2025	27	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	41	36	6	2	0	0	2	11	0	1	0	167	211	222	433	56	231	27	5	185	0	-5	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.2
2025	27	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	465	400	83	18	5	8	54	146	9	25	5	207	315	338	652	130	305	31	12	299	87	-7	+3	—	—	+13	1.0
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	145	131	27	4	2	1	8	51	2	4	0	206	262	290	552	84	325	35	6	246	46	-9	+1	+1	+2	+4	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Chris Owingslast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,420 PA	9	2,420	35	78	239	286	365	+13	-0	3.7	4.5
	/162	664	10	21	239	286	365	+3.6	-0.1	1.0	pk7: 5
#4Dustin Ackleylast yr '16 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,347 PA	6	2,347	46	31	241	304	367	-5	+7	3.8	3.8
	/162	664	13	9	241	304	367	-1.3	+1.9	1.1	pk7: 4
#5Pokey Reeselast yr '04 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,914 PA	5	1,914	29	78	242	303	347	-6	+6	2.7	2.7
	/162	664	10	27	242	303	347	-2.0	+2.2	1.0	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	2,154	56	62	215	290	357	+8	+2	2.4	2.5
	/162	664	17	19	215	290	357	+2.4	+0.7	0.7	pk7: 3
#6Nick Senzellast yr '24 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,633 PA	6	1,633	40	33	232	299	363	+6	-14	0.9	0.9
	/162	664	16	13	232	299	363	+2.4	-5.8	0.4	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Oliver Dunn (OGILVIE)	28	35	45	60	55	233/313/416	183	313	26	32	31%	9%	101	+2.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael Gigliotti 2023 · AA	27	41	47→40	57→55	48	204/301/338	134	290	15	26	32%	10%	82	+0.5	218/311/327	109	288	9	16	25%	10%	82	+0.5	212/323/302	89	272	5	13	21%	12%	80	+0.2
✕George Lombard 2003 · MLB	27	47→44	45→50	58→55	44	232/292/362	130	311	12	23	28%	8%	82	+0.5	233/294/379	146	307	15	19	28%	7%	88	+0.9	220/293/373	153	305	17	27	32%	8%	84	+0.4
✕J.P. Martínez 2023 · AAA	27	45→44	48→50	63→65	43	215/292/362	146	324	15	31	36%	9%	83	+0.6	213/293/343	130	319	12	37	34%	9%	79	+0.3	204/289/324	120	306	11	45	34%	9%	69	-0.3
✕Jacob Hannemann 2018 · MLB	27	41	43→45	57→60	41	205/260/322	117	272	10	26	28%	6%	59	-1.1	201/253/309	108	258	11	24	26%	5%	53	-1.5	184/233/277	93	233	10	28	25%	5%	32	-1.3
✕Matt Long 2015 · AAA	28	44→53	44→50	55	44	217/273/334	117	286	11	21	28%	7%	67	-0.5	200/252/305	105	265	10	14	27%	6%	51	-1.7	176/227/269	94	228	8	11	26%	6%	30	-2.6
✕Jared Oliva 2023 · MLB	27	43→45	43→50	58→65	38	211/256/329	117	289	9	24	30%	5%	58	-1.2	226/286/365	139	288	14	38	26%	6%	82	+0.5	227/296/370	142	284	15	55	24%	7%	82	+0.3
✕Sam Haggerty 2022 · MLB	28	47→44	44→50	58→65	45	226/294/347	122	307	11	25	29%	8%	80	+0.4	250/324/395	145	318	12	35	24%	8%	105	+2.1	257/335/401	144	323	11	42	22%	9%	107	+1.2
✕Nolan Fontana 2019 · MLB	28	40→43	43→40	51→50	51	198/284/313	115	267	10	12	28%	10%	68	-0.5	202/287/326	124	291	12	10	32%	10%	72	-0.2	124/238/209	86	192	10	0	38%	12%	22	-0.8
✕Clete Thomas 2012 · MLB	28	45→52	47→50	58→55	40	220/282/355	135	326	15	24	36%	7%	77	+0.1	213/266/351	138	291	14	16	31%	6%	69	-0.4	209/265/341	133	277	13	14	28%	7%	62	-0.6
✕JJ Muno 2022 · AA	28	38	43→40	53→60	38	187/271/294	107	277	11	21	34%	6%	59	-1.1	206/289/300	94	299	8	27	32%	7%	67	-0.5	195/287/264	69	287	6	39	31%	8%	54	-0.8
✕Scott Kingery 2023 · MLB	29	39→49	42→55	58→55	42	189/260/298	109	295	9	19	37%	8%	53	-1.5	203/256/337	134	290	16	21	34%	6%	61	-1.0	198/239/341	143	265	19	17	33%	5%	52	-0.8
✕Garrett Hampson 2023 · MLB	28	41→51	42→45	56→60	46	202/267/311	109	263	9	22	26%	8%	59	-1.1	242/305/337	95	325	6	18	25%	8%	81	+0.4	244/299/335	90	331	5	17	26%	7%	74	-0.0
✕Mark Contreras 2023 · MLB	28	37	51→50	55	36	198/257/358	160	281	20	20	36%	6%	69	-0.4	204/266/321	117	295	13	26	33%	6%	62	-0.9	196/263/289	93	286	10	32	33%	7%	48	-1.2
✕Lane Adams 2019 · MLB	29	42→46	45→50	59→60	39	204/265/323	119	312	12	32	37%	7%	61	-1.0	202/270/352	150	319	18	17	40%	7%	72	-0.2	179/253/346	167	275	22	14	42%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Hoy Park 2023 · MLB	27	41→49	47→45	53→55	48	209/284/337	128	275	15	16	29%	9%	73	-0.1	224/308/335	111	306	11	17	28%	10%	82	+0.5	227/321/326	100	311	9	19	27%	11%	83	+0.4
✕Ray-Patrick Didder 2023 · AAA	28	42→47	42→45	53→60	38	204/273/305	101	297	10	22	33%	6%	61	-1.0	190/288/313	123	275	14	28	34%	9%	71	-0.3	164/281/291	127	235	15	34	34%	11%	60	-0.7
✕Eli White 2023 · MLB	29	44→49	48→50	55→60	46	219/294/353	134	297	16	24	30%	9%	82	+0.5	236/305/381	145	323	17	28	30%	8%	94	+1.3	238/302/384	146	318	18	31	30%	7%	89	+0.5
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB	28	45→49	42→45	59→60	40	217/273/330	112	295	9	29	29%	6%	66	-0.6	207/268/318	111	304	11	20	33%	6%	62	-0.9	148/223/226	79	244	8	18	40%	7%	18	-1.1
✕Rudy Martin Jr. 2022 · AAA	26	45	46→45	55→65	43	216/291/340	124	330	15	25	36%	9%	77	+0.1	221/296/343	122	326	14	24	34%	9%	80	+0.4	227/303/343	115	312	13	52	29%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Jeremy Hazelbaker 2016 · AAA	28	48→54	44→55	61→60	39	230/276/355	124	328	10	25	32%	6%	73	-0.1	222/282/383	161	325	17	19	35%	7%	84	+0.6	200/267/370	170	298	20	19	38%	8%	69	-0.2