Tyler Callihan
LF Indianapolis Indians| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAA/AA/INTL2 orgs | 391 | .273/.356/.428 | 11 | 27 | 85 | — | .237/.300/.353 |
| 2025 | 25 | AAACIN | 106 | .303/.410/.528 | 4 | 6 | 113 | — | .245/.324/.415 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAAPIT | 378 | .226/.316/.361 | 10 | 15 | 51 | — | .194/.259/.291 |
| 2026 | 26 | MLBPIT | 107 | .211/.286/.389 | 3 | 1 | 88 | -0.4 | |
| 2027PROJ45% MLB | 27 | MLBPIT | 70 | .189/.260/.303 | 1 | 2 | 61 | -0.3 | |
| 2028PROJ49% MLB | 28 | MLBPIT | 138 | .190/.261/.303 | 3 | 4 | 61 | -0.5 |
Tools · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 99 | 87 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 299 | 351 | 437 | 787 | 138 | 324 | 13 | 8 | 341 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 233 | 211 | 49 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 232 | 299 | 384 | 683 | 152 | 306 | 26 | 7 | 303 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A | Daytona Tortugas | — | 128 | 117 | 33 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 282 | 339 | 419 | 757 | 137 | 312 | 15 | 8 | 336 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 101 | 87 | 27 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 20 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 310 | 400 | 460 | 860 | 149 | 388 | 20 | 13 | 381 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Dayton Dragons | — | 447 | 399 | 94 | 21 | 5 | 8 | 37 | 104 | 7 | 25 | 4 | 236 | 312 | 373 | 685 | 138 | 300 | 23 | 8 | 306 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 20 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 357 | 550 | 714 | 1.264 | 357 | 444 | 20 | 30 | 532 | 181 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 282 | 247 | 67 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 27 | 78 | 2 | 21 | 5 | 271 | 348 | 413 | 761 | 142 | 362 | 28 | 10 | 335 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | INTL | Glendale Desert Dogs | — | 89 | 80 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 263 | 337 | 425 | 762 | 162 | 328 | 22 | 10 | 339 | 116 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | — | 106 | 89 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 303 | 410 | 528 | 938 | 225 | 411 | 27 | 15 | 408 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 107 | 95 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 389 | 675 | 179 | 309 | 36 | 8 | 295 | 88 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 378 | 327 | 74 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 42 | 95 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 226 | 316 | 361 | 677 | 135 | 286 | 25 | 11 | 302 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Career | — | — | 107 | 95 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 389 | 675 | 179 | 309 | 36 | 8 | 295 | 86 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +2 | -0.5 | ||
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 99 | 91 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 264 | 309 | 385 | 694 | 121 | 294 | 17 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 233 | 215 | 39 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 74 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 181 | 238 | 288 | 526 | 107 | 254 | 32 | 6 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 128 | 120 | 28 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 233 | 276 | 350 | 626 | 117 | 269 | 20 | 5 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 101 | 92 | 26 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 283 | 340 | 413 | 753 | 130 | 373 | 25 | 8 | 331 | 110 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | Dayton Dragons | — | 447 | 411 | 77 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 135 | 7 | 25 | 4 | 187 | 246 | 287 | 533 | 100 | 263 | 30 | 6 | 238 | 47 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 20 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 312 | 450 | 625 | 1.075 | 312 | 403 | 25 | 20 | 436 | 181 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Chattanooga Lookouts | — | 282 | 255 | 59 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 95 | 2 | 21 | 5 | 231 | 290 | 333 | 623 | 102 | 325 | 34 | 7 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 106 | 94 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 324 | 415 | 739 | 170 | 379 | 34 | 10 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | MLB MLE | Pittsburgh Pirates | — | 107 | 95 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 211 | 286 | 389 | 675 | 179 | 309 | 36 | 8 | 298 | 88 | -2 | +0 | +0 | -5 | +2 | -0.4 |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 378 | 340 | 66 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 114 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 194 | 259 | 291 | 551 | 97 | 258 | 30 | 8 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 99 | 91 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 264 | 309 | 385 | 694 | 121 | 297 | 17 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A RAW | Daytona Tortugas | — | 99 | 87 | 26 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 299 | 351 | 437 | 787 | 138 | 324 | 13 | 8 | 341 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 361 | 335 | 67 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 99 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 200 | 251 | 310 | 562 | 110 | 263 | 27 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 361 | 328 | 82 | 19 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 80 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 250 | 313 | 396 | 709 | 146 | 309 | 22 | 7 | 314 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 548 | 502 | 104 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 161 | 7 | 29 | 5 | 207 | 267 | 315 | 582 | 108 | 290 | 29 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 548 | 486 | 121 | 31 | 5 | 9 | 50 | 124 | 7 | 29 | 5 | 249 | 328 | 389 | 717 | 140 | 316 | 23 | 9 | 320 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 391 | 353 | 83 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 129 | 2 | 27 | 6 | 235 | 299 | 348 | 647 | 113 | 341 | 33 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 391 | 341 | 93 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 102 | 2 | 27 | 6 | 273 | 356 | 428 | 784 | 155 | 357 | 26 | 11 | 346 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 106 | 94 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 324 | 415 | 739 | 170 | 364 | 34 | 10 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA RAW | Louisville Bats | — | 106 | 89 | 27 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 29 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 303 | 410 | 528 | 938 | 225 | 411 | 27 | 15 | 408 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 485 | 435 | 86 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 152 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 198 | 265 | 313 | 578 | 115 | 275 | 31 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA RAW | 2 teams | — | 485 | 422 | 94 | 14 | 4 | 13 | 51 | 133 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 223 | 309 | 367 | 677 | 145 | 290 | 27 | 11 | 300 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A MLE | Daytona Tortugas | — | 99 | 93 | 24 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 258 | 309 | 376 | 686 | 118 | 294 | 17 | 6 | 299 | 88 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 361 | 335 | 67 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 99 | 3 | 15 | 3 | 200 | 251 | 310 | 562 | 110 | 259 | 27 | 6 | 244 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 548 | 502 | 104 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 34 | 161 | 7 | 29 | 5 | 207 | 267 | 315 | 582 | 108 | 283 | 29 | 6 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 391 | 356 | 83 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 129 | 2 | 27 | 6 | 233 | 299 | 346 | 644 | 112 | 330 | 33 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 106 | 94 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 324 | 415 | 739 | 170 | 379 | 34 | 10 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 485 | 442 | 86 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 152 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 195 | 265 | 308 | 573 | 113 | 269 | 31 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 391 | 356 | 83 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 30 | 129 | 2 | 27 | 6 | 233 | 299 | 346 | 644 | 112 | 330 | 33 | 8 | 281 | 76 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AAA MLE | Louisville Bats | — | 106 | 94 | 23 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 36 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 245 | 324 | 415 | 739 | 170 | 379 | 34 | 10 | 335 | 113 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AAA MLE | 2 teams | — | 485 | 442 | 86 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 152 | 2 | 16 | 6 | 195 | 265 | 308 | 573 | 113 | 269 | 31 | 8 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | PIT | 45% | 371 | 335 | 63 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 118 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 190 | 261 | 309 | 570 | 119 | 262 | 32 | 8 | 258 | 61 | -17 | +1 | -1 | -4 | +8 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | PIT | 45% | 70 | 64 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 189 | 260 | 303 | 563 | 115 | 262 | 31 | 9 | 255 | 61 | -3 | +0 | -0 | -1 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | PIT | 49% | 279 | 253 | 48 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 88 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 191 | 262 | 309 | 571 | 118 | 262 | 32 | 8 | 258 | 61 | -13 | +1 | -2 | -3 | +6 | -1.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | PIT | 49% | 138 | 125 | 24 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 44 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 190 | 261 | 303 | 564 | 114 | 262 | 32 | 8 | 256 | 61 | -6 | +0 | -1 | -1 | +3 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 245 | 220 | 44 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 82 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 200 | 273 | 345 | 618 | 145 | 284 | 33 | 8 | 273 | 65 | -8 | +1 | -1 | -7 | +5 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 584 | 117 | 21 | 8 | 16 | 53 | 218 | 5 | 13 | 3 | 200 | 273 | 346 | 618 | 146 | 285 | 34 | 8 | 273 | 65 | -22 | +2 | -2 | -18 | +14 | -2.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2424 | 2203 | 461 | 80 | 17 | 46 | 175 | 731 | 16 | 111 | 25 | 209 | 272 | 324 | 596 | 114 | 289 | 30 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -22 | +2 | -2 | -10 | +12 | -2.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 591 | 123 | 21 | 5 | 12 | 47 | 196 | 4 | 30 | 7 | 208 | 271 | 321 | 593 | 113 | 288 | 30 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -26 | +2 | -3 | -12 | +14 | -2.5 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 378 PAwOBA .294 → .244 (−51)K% 25.1% → 30.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.13% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 30.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.85% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.018 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.26% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.018 | 0.25% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 20.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 3.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.86% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×1.018 | 0.83% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.31% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.018 | 3.07% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .294 → .244; ISO .135 → .104; BABIP .286 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAALouisville Bats · 106 PAwOBA .397 → .335 (−62)K% 27.4% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.36% | ÷0.975 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.67% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.09% | ÷1.002 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 10.74% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.33% | ÷1.049 | ×0.930 | ×1.012 | ×1.033 | 26.26% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.992 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.033 | 5.83% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.900 | ×0.970 | ×1.012 | ×1.033 | 3.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.67% | ÷0.901 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 5.35% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 110, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 95, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .397 → .335; ISO .225 → .195; BABIP .411 → .379. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 282 PAwOBA .329 → .270 (−58)K% 27.7% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.66% | ÷1.005 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.58% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.57% | ÷0.970 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.71% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.60% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.99% | ÷0.964 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 27.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.33% | ÷1.236 | ×0.910 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 3.88% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.59% | ÷1.001 | ×0.880 | ×0.977 | ×1.012 | 0.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.73% | ÷1.089 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 3.52% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 118, 1B 93, 2B 147, 3B 100, K 101, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .329 → .270; ISO .142 → .104; BABIP .362 → .325. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAALouisville Bats · 20 PAwOBA .520 → .436 (−84)K% 20.0% → 24.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.00% | ÷0.999 | ×1.200 | — | — | 24.03% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 30.00% | ÷1.032 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.048 | 21.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.995 | ×0.930 | — | ×1.048 | 19.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.964 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.048 | 18.05% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | — | ×1.048 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 10.00% | ÷1.111 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.048 | 6.61% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 122, 1B 99, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 27.2 → +4.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .520 → .436; ISO .357 → .297; BABIP .444 → .403. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Dayton Dragons · 447 PAwOBA .298 → .238 (−60)K% 23.3% → 30.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.27% | ÷0.975 | ×1.270 | — | — | 30.30% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.05% | ÷1.020 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.57% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.998 | 1.23% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.34% | ÷0.979 | ×0.920 | ×0.978 | ×0.998 | 18.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.12% | ÷1.027 | ×0.810 | ×0.978 | ×0.998 | 5.48% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.69% | ÷0.916 | ×0.850 | ×0.978 | ×0.998 | 1.54% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.71% | ÷0.951 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.28% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 90, 1B 96, 2B 105, 3B 83, K 95, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.978.
Result: wOBA .298 → .238; ISO .138 → .108; BABIP .300 → .263. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 101 PAwOBA .375 → .331 (−44)K% 19.8% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.80% | ÷0.961 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.87% | ÷1.069 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 8.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.88% | ÷0.986 | ×0.920 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 23.30% |
| Doubles /BIP | 14.93% | ÷1.004 | ×0.910 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 14.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.018 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.49% | ÷1.017 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 1.21% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 103, 1B 97, 2B 101, 3B 130, K 92, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.018.
Result: wOBA .375 → .331; ISO .149 → .137; BABIP .388 → .373. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Dayton Dragons · 233 PAwOBA .296 → .229 (−67)K% 26.2% → 31.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.18% | ÷1.047 | ×1.270 | — | — | 31.75% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.30% | ÷0.958 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 5.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.29% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 1.03% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.33% | ÷1.002 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | ×1.012 | 17.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.00% | ÷1.217 | ×0.810 | ×0.979 | ×1.012 | 5.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.67% | ÷1.028 | ×0.850 | ×0.979 | ×1.012 | 2.19% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.67% | ÷1.058 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.04% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 143, 3B 106, K 109, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .296 → .229; ISO .152 → .108; BABIP .306 → .254. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 ADaytona Tortugas · 128 PAwOBA .330 → .271 (−59)K% 14.8% → 19.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.84% | ÷1.021 | ×1.360 | — | — | 19.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.81% | ÷0.986 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.47% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.47% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×0.979 | — | 20.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.028 | ×0.830 | ×0.979 | — | 5.65% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.016 | ×0.910 | ×0.979 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.06% | ÷0.883 | ×0.800 | — | — | 2.77% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 77, 1B 103, 2B 106, 3B 103, K 104, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.979.
Result: wOBA .330 → .271; ISO .137 → .114; BABIP .312 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .