Matt Fraizer — OGILVIE

Matt FraizerCF Portland Sea Dogs

Age 28 L/R 6'1" / 220 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION132 act + 18 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†76

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .222 / .235

PA18

HR0

K%28

BB%6

BABIP320

ISO59

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	23	AA	Altoona Curve	—	149	132	38	12	3	3	13	34	2	1	2	288	361	492	853	205	361	23	9	370	137	+6	-1	—	—	+3	0.9
2021	23	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	350	303	95	14	3	20	43	74	2	14	6	314	401	578	979	264	357	21	12	424	173	+30	+0	—	—	+8	3.9
2022	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	480	439	96	18	7	6	35	114	5	18	1	219	284	333	616	114	282	24	7	279	75	-14	+3	—	—	+10	-0.1
2023	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	486	437	110	16	3	8	43	104	5	21	3	252	326	357	683	105	314	21	9	310	96	-2	+3	—	—	+11	1.2
2024	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	151	138	36	9	1	3	12	35	1	6	2	261	325	406	730	145	330	23	8	327	107	+1	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2024	26	AA	Altoona Curve	—	218	192	46	7	1	5	20	59	3	10	3	240	321	365	686	125	315	27	9	307	94	-1	+1	—	—	+5	0.4
2025	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	197	60	18	1	3	19	44	0	14	2	305	366	452	818	147	373	20	9	357	128	+7	+2	—	—	+5	1.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	23	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	149	136	32	11	2	2	9	42	2	1	2	235	293	390	682	154	316	28	6	302	91	-2	-1	—	—	+3	0.1
2021	23	A+ MLE	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	350	319	80	12	3	13	28	98	2	14	6	251	315	429	745	179	315	28	8	319	102	+1	+0	—	—	+8	0.9
2022	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	480	450	81	16	5	4	24	143	5	18	1	180	230	264	494	84	250	30	5	217	33	-38	+3	—	—	+10	-2.5
2023	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	486	453	95	12	3	6	27	126	5	21	3	210	262	289	551	79	275	26	6	242	50	-29	+3	—	—	+11	-1.6
2024	26	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	151	142	30	7	1	2	8	44	1	6	2	211	258	317	575	106	286	29	5	250	55	-8	+0	—	—	+3	-0.4
2024	26	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	218	199	40	6	1	4	13	75	3	10	3	201	260	302	562	101	288	34	6	252	57	-11	+1	—	—	+5	-0.6
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	204	56	16	1	2	12	55	0	14	2	275	315	392	707	118	345	25	5	304	92	-2	+2	—	—	+5	0.5
2021	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	499	456	112	23	5	15	36	140	4	15	8	246	306	417	723	171	319	28	7	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	499	435	133	26	6	23	56	108	4	15	8	306	389	552	941	246	358	22	11	408	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	480	450	81	16	5	4	24	143	5	18	1	180	230	264	494	84	254	30	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	—	480	439	96	18	7	6	35	114	5	18	1	219	284	333	616	114	282	24	7	279	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	486	453	95	12	3	6	27	126	5	21	3	210	262	289	551	79	277	26	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA RAW	Altoona Curve	—	486	437	110	16	3	8	43	104	5	21	3	252	326	357	683	105	314	21	9	310	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	369	341	71	13	2	7	21	119	4	16	5	208	262	320	582	111	295	32	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA RAW	2 teams	—	369	330	82	16	2	8	32	94	4	16	5	248	322	382	704	133	322	25	9	315	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	204	56	16	1	2	12	55	0	14	2	275	315	392	707	118	360	25	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA RAW	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	197	60	18	1	3	19	44	0	14	2	305	366	452	818	147	373	20	9	357	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	499	456	112	23	5	15	36	140	4	15	8	246	306	417	723	171	315	28	7	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	480	448	81	16	5	4	24	143	5	18	1	181	230	266	495	85	250	30	5	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	486	451	95	12	3	6	27	126	5	21	3	211	262	290	552	80	275	26	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	369	341	71	13	2	7	21	119	4	16	5	208	262	320	582	111	287	32	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	206	56	16	1	2	12	55	0	14	2	272	315	388	703	117	345	25	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	25	AA MLE	Altoona Curve	—	486	451	95	12	3	6	27	126	5	21	3	211	262	290	552	80	275	26	6	242	50	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA MLE	2 teams	—	369	341	71	13	2	7	21	119	4	16	5	208	262	320	582	111	287	32	6	251	56	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA MLE	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	206	56	16	1	2	12	55	0	14	2	272	315	388	703	117	345	25	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	AA MLE	BOS	—	132	119	25	10	2	1	10	43	2	2	1	210	282	353	635	143	316	33	8	282	77	-4	+0	+0	+0	+3	-0.0
▸ 2026 season
YTD	28	ROK RAW	BOS	—	45	35	6	3	0	1	9	14	1	0	1	171	356	343	698	171	250	31	20	328	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	28	AA RAW	BOS	—	87	78	24	9	2	1	7	19	1	2	0	308	372	513	885	205	390	22	8	383	77	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	28	AA MLE	BOS	2%	18	17	3	1	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	176	222	235	458	59	314	28	6	281	76	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
TOT	28	AA MLE	BOS	—	150	136	28	11	2	1	11	48	2	3	1	206	275	338	613	132	307	32	7	282	77	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	29	MLB MLE	BOS	23%	266	245	56	13	2	4	17	75	2	7	2	229	284	347	631	118	309	28	6	282	77	-7	+1	-1	+1	+6	-0.1
2028	30	MLB MLE	BOS	35%	303	277	64	15	2	5	20	85	3	8	2	231	290	354	644	123	307	28	7	283	78	-8	+1	-2	+1	+7	-0.2
2027	29	MLB CTX	BOS	23%	60	56	12	3	0	1	4	17	0	2	0	214	267	321	588	107	315	28	7	280	77	-2	+0	-0	+0	+1	-0.0
2028	30	MLB CTX	BOS	35%	105	96	24	6	1	2	7	29	1	3	1	250	308	396	704	146	313	28	7	281	78	-3	+0	-1	+0	+2	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	165	152	36	9	1	3	11	46	1	5	1	237	293	368	661	132	317	28	7	280	67	-4	+1	-1	+1	+4	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	599	142	35	4	12	43	181	4	20	4	237	293	369	662	132	317	28	7	280	67	-17	+2	-4	+2	+14	-0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	2641	2443	538	109	20	43	158	748	23	100	23	220	274	334	608	114	298	28	6	267	67	-16	+2	-3	+2	+13	-0.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	601	133	27	5	11	39	184	6	25	6	221	276	338	613	116	298	28	6	267	67	-17	+2	-4	+2	+14	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Fraizer (OGILVIE)	28	60	45	60	40	227/281/342	115	314	3	7	29%	6%	76	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Brian Bogusevic 2012 · MLB	28	50→55	42→45	57→55	46	239/301/351	112	311	9	22	25%	8%	85	+0.2	238/312/365	127	303	12	20	24%	9%	93	+0.8	257/316/382	124	324	13	19	23%	7%	95	+0.7
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB	28	47→50	42→45	60	41	225/283/336	111	304	8	29	28%	6%	75	-0.5	210/274/318	108	307	10	20	33%	7%	68	-1.0	149/221/220	71	245	7	18	39%	7%	26	-1.2
✕Luis Bolivar 2009 · AAA	28	50→56	42→45	57→55	40	240/285/350	110	307	8	20	24%	5%	79	-0.2	211/251/307	96	277	7	24	26%	4%	56	-1.9	195/231/277	83	256	6	28	26%	3%	39	-2.0
✕Trent Oeltjen 2011 · MLB	28	51→59	45→50	57→55	41	245/290/382	137	314	10	22	25%	5%	88	+0.4	225/285/365	140	318	13	21	31%	6%	83	+0.1	210/277/353	143	307	14	22	34%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Kean Wong 2023 · MLB	28	49→59	37→45	58→55	43	231/282/305	73	315	5	29	27%	6%	67	-1.1	233/296/331	98	311	9	21	26%	8%	79	-0.2	240/315/327	87	305	11	15	23%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Matt Angle 2014 · MLB	28	49→58	40	57→60	44	230/293/322	92	311	7	22	27%	7%	76	-0.4	211/275/287	76	301	5	18	29%	7%	61	-1.5	189/254/230	41	275	1	18	29%	7%	38	-1.2
✕Darrell Ceciliani 2016 · MLB	26	51→53	43→45	56→55	39	247/287/361	114	322	10	24	26%	5%	82	-0.0	221/265/329	108	288	10	16	26%	5%	67	-1.1	204/246/299	95	263	8	13	25%	4%	50	-0.9
✕Nathan Haynes 2008 · MLB	28	57	42→40	56→55	44	267/319/385	118	350	8	27	25%	7%	99	+1.3	240/280/325	85	315	6	22	25%	5%	71	-0.8	231/259/276	45	304	2	26	24%	3%	48	-1.4
✕Matt Long 2015 · AAA	28	44→54	43→50	56→55	45	217/274/332	115	285	10	21	27%	7%	71	-0.8	205/259/311	106	272	9	14	27%	7%	60	-1.6	187/238/284	97	244	7	11	26%	6%	45	-2.2
✕Scott Cousins 2013 · MLB	28	47→50	45→50	52→55	42	232/281/360	128	300	12	17	27%	6%	80	-0.2	216/275/316	100	293	9	16	28%	6%	68	-1.0	184/248/234	49	261	2	16	28%	5%	36	-1.2
✕Ben Copeland 2012 · AAA	28	49→52	42→45	54→55	46	237/289/352	115	292	9	19	22%	7%	80	-0.1	212/258/323	111	270	10	19	24%	6%	63	-1.4	163/196/246	83	206	6	28	24%	4%	19	-1.5
✕Tyrell Godwin 2007 · AAA	28	50→60	41→45	53→50	45	243/291/349	106	290	8	19	19%	6%	80	-0.1	228/281/335	107	281	9	14	21%	6%	74	-0.6	222/277/316	94	274	8	11	21%	7%	65	-0.9
✕Jeff Duncan 2007 · MLB	28	50→47	42→45	54→60	46	240/304/341	101	306	9	22	24%	7%	84	+0.2	228/294/311	83	298	7	18	24%	8%	74	-0.6	199/273/205	6	269	0	18	24%	9%	39	-0.9
✕Freddie Bynum Jr. 2008 · MLB	28	50→52	44→40	60→55	40	239/287/373	133	318	10	26	27%	5%	84	+0.2	220/265/314	94	297	6	18	27%	5%	63	-1.4	209/250/282	73	283	4	14	26%	5%	47	-1.1
✕Chris Rahl 2012 · AAA	28	51→56	42→45	56→55	38	244/283/358	114	327	7	19	27%	4%	80	-0.2	244/272/360	116	328	10	21	28%	3%	76	-0.4	242/263/351	109	324	10	21	28%	2%	68	-0.6
✕Elliot Johnson 2012 · MLB	28	48→56	45	53→60	43	235/283/359	124	300	12	22	26%	6%	80	-0.1	220/276/326	106	289	9	27	26%	7%	70	-0.8	207/266/302	94	274	7	29	26%	7%	59	-0.9
✕Buck Coats 2010 · MLB	28	53→57	40	53→55	45	256/298/352	96	304	7	19	18%	6%	83	+0.1	255/302/349	94	304	7	12	18%	6%	84	+0.2	270/315/356	85	323	6	8	17%	6%	89	+0.4
✕Leonys Martin 2016 · MLB	28	50→56	42→50	56→60	46	244/295/347	102	295	10	29	20%	6%	82	-0.0	242/295/376	134	306	15	24	25%	7%	89	+0.5	242/298/385	142	308	16	24	25%	7%	90	+0.5
✕Brian Miller 2023 · AAA	27	51→58	40	61→60	44	243/287/340	97	308	6	30	23%	6%	76	-0.4	226/282/321	95	294	6	24	24%	7%	71	-0.8	206/269/270	64	274	3	29	24%	7%	53	-1.1
✕Gorkys Hernández 2016 · AAA	28	52→57	39→45	54→55	42	243/293/331	88	326	6	22	26%	6%	77	-0.3	255/312/364	109	320	9	18	22%	7%	92	+0.7	256/315/372	117	316	11	16	22%	7%	91	+0.5