Matt Fraizer

CF Portland Sea Dogs
Age 29 L/R 6'1" / 220 lbs AA HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
Overview
AAPROSPECTMiLBFA 2036
MLB%2%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202426AAA/AAPIT369.248/.322/.38281658—.209/.265/.312
202527AAAPIT220.305/.366/.45231493—.275/.315/.392
202628AA/ROKBOS132.265/.366/.4602272—.208/.283/.367
2027PROJMLE29MLBBOS2.236/.290/.3580076-0.0
2028PROJ23% MLB30MLBBOS34.234/.289/.3540174-0.0
Next 2 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2035Service0.0First FA2036
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.8M2031Ext$0.9M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$3M2034Ext$5M+1
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA
Speed87
wOBA82
wRC+82
Whiff%79
Z-Con%79
ISO76
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%
CompsMatt Angle (age 28) · Jason Pridie (age 29) · Clay Dungan (age 28)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection
showingPROJ
wRC+†76
AVG/OBP/SLG.236 / .290 / .358
PA2
HR0
K%50
BB%7
BABIP320
ISO115
MLB%2%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -3.0 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-3BATRUN: +0.4 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +2.3 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
trajectory · projected WAR by year
0.00.02728
Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT60
scouting grade only
POWER45
scouting grade only
EYE40
scouting grade only
SPEED60
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2030
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2035
First FA Year   2036
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $0.0M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202123 AAAltoona Curve — 149132 381233 13342 12 288361492853 205361 239 370 96 — — — — — —
202123 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers — 350303 9514320 43742 146 314401578979 264357 2112 424 102 — — — — — —
202224 AAAltoona Curve — 480439 961876 351145 181 219284333616 114282 247 279 37 — — — — — —
202325 AAAltoona Curve — 486437 1101638 431045 213 252326357683 105314 219 310 53 — — — — — —
202426 AAAIndianapolis Indians — 151138 36913 12351 62 261325406730 145330 238 327 59 — — — — — —
202426 AAAltoona Curve — 218192 46715 20593 103 240321365686 125315 279 307 57 — — — — — —
202527 AAAIndianapolis Indians — 220197 601813 19440 142 305366452818 147373 209 357 93 — — — — — —
202628 AAPortland Sea Dogs — 8778 24921 7191 20 308372513885 205390 228 383 99 — — — — — —
202628 ROKFCL Red Sox — 4535 6301 9141 01 171356343698 171250 3120 328 20 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202123 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 149136 331122 9422 12 243299397696 154325 286 310 96 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLEGreensboro Grasshoppers — 350320 8012313 27982 146 250312428740 178315 288 319 102 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 480450 831654 241435 181 184234269503 84259 305 223 37 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 486452 971236 281265 213 215268294562 80281 266 246 53 — — — — — —
202426 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 151141 30712 9441 62 213265319584 106292 296 255 59 — — — — — —
202426 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 218199 41614 13753 103 206265307572 101291 346 253 57 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 220204 561612 12550 142 275315392707 118346 255 305 93 — — — — — —
202628 AA MLEPortland Sea Dogs — 8780 21721 5231 20 263314438751 175344 266 314 99 — — — — — —
202628 ROK MLEFCL Red Sox — 4539 4201 5201 01 103222231453 128176 4411 198 20 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLE2 teams — 499456 11423516 361404 158 250310428738 178323 287 316 100 — — — — — —
202123 A+ RAW2 teams — 499435 13326623 561084 158 306389552941 246358 2211 408 100 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 480450 831654 241435 181 184234269503 84261 305 223 37 — — — — — —
202224 AA RAWAltoona Curve — 480439 961876 351145 181 219284333616 114282 247 279 37 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 486452 971236 281265 213 215268294562 80284 266 246 53 — — — — — —
202325 AA RAWAltoona Curve — 486437 1101638 431045 213 252326357683 105314 219 310 53 — — — — — —
202426 AA MLE2 teams — 369341 721327 211194 165 211265323588 111300 326 254 58 — — — — — —
202426 AA RAW2 teams — 369330 821628 32944 165 248322382704 133322 259 315 58 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 220204 561612 12550 142 275315392707 118360 255 305 93 — — — — — —
202527 AAA RAWIndianapolis Indians — 220197 601813 19440 142 305366452818 147373 209 357 93 — — — — — —
202628 AA MLE2 teams — 132119 24921 10432 21 202275336611 134303 338 274 72 — — — — — —
202628 AA RAW2 teams — 132113 301222 16332 21 265366460827 195354 2512 364 72 — — — — — —
202123 A+ MLE2 teams — 499456 11423516 361404 158 250310428738 178318 287 316 100 — — — — — —
202224 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 480448 831654 241435 181 185234270504 85259 305 223 37 — — — — — —
202325 AA MLEAltoona Curve — 486450 971236 281265 213 216268296564 80281 266 246 53 — — — — — —
202426 AA MLE2 teams — 369341 721327 211194 165 211265323588 111291 326 254 58 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 220206 561612 12550 142 272315388703 117346 255 305 93 — — — — — —
202628 AA MLE2 teams — 132119 24921 10432 21 202275336611 134287 338 274 72 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202426 AA MLE2 teams — 369341 721327 211194 165 211265323588 111291 326 254 58 — — — — — —
202527 AAA MLEIndianapolis Indians — 220206 561612 12550 142 272315388703 117346 255 305 93 — — — — — —
202628 AA MLE2 teams — 132119 24921 10432 21 202275336611 134287 338 274 72 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202729 MLB MLEBOS 2% 200184 421113 13561 61 227282345627 117308 286 280 76 -6 +1 +0 +1 +4 0.0
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
202729 MLB CTXBOS 2% 22 0000 010 00 236290358648 122320 500 289 76 -0 +0 +0 +0 +0 -0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202830 MLB MLEBOS 23% 151139 31812 10421 41 226281341622 115306 287 278 74 -5 +0 -2 +1 +3 -0.3
202830 MLB CTXBOS 23% 3432 7200 2100 10 234289354642 120318 296 287 74 -1 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 3432 7200 2100 10 219265281546 62318 296 287 67 -1 +0 -0 +0 +1 -0.0
/ 162G— A+C — 650612 1343800 381910 190 219265281546 62318 296 287 67 -20 +4 -9 +2 +14 -0.9
Career— MLE — 24422257 4991032039 14869722 9322 221276336612 115300 296 267 67 -8 +1 -2 +1 +6 -0.3
/ 162G— MLE — 650601 13227510 391866 256 220274331605 111299 296 267 67 -19 +2 -5 +2 +14 -0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAPortland Sea Dogs · 87 PAwOBA .377 → .314 (−64)K% 21.8% → 26.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.84%÷1.000×1.220——26.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.05%÷1.000×0.700—×0.9685.45%
HBP% /PA1.15%—×0.850—×0.9680.95%
Singles /BIP20.34%÷1.000×0.970×0.990×0.96818.90%
Doubles /BIP15.25%÷1.000×0.860×0.990×0.96812.57%
Triples /BIP3.39%÷1.000×0.950×0.990×0.9683.08%
Home runs /BIP1.69%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9681.28%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 24.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .377 → .314; ISO .205 → .169; BABIP .390 → .344. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 ROKFCL Red Sox · 45 PAwOBA .321 → .198 (−122)K% 31.1% → 44.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA31.11%÷1.000×1.440——44.80%
BB% (unintentional) /PA20.00%÷1.000×0.620—×0.94011.66%
HBP% /PA2.22%—×0.720—×0.9401.50%
Singles /BIP9.52%÷1.000×0.820—×0.9407.34%
Doubles /BIP14.29%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9409.67%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.720—×0.9400.00%
Home runs /BIP4.76%÷1.000×0.780—×0.9403.49%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 19.5 → −6.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (8.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .321 → .198; ISO .171 → .109; BABIP .250 → .176. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 220 PAwOBA .353 → .305 (−48)K% 20.0% → 24.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.00%÷0.965×1.200——24.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.64%÷1.112×0.690—×1.0035.38%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.940—×1.0030.00%
Singles /BIP24.84%÷1.008×0.930×1.042×1.00323.96%
Doubles /BIP11.76%÷0.995×0.830×1.042×1.00310.25%
Triples /BIP0.65%÷1.150×0.970×1.042×1.0030.58%
Home runs /BIP1.96%÷0.915×0.700—×1.0031.50%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.042.

Result: wOBA .353 → .305; ISO .147 → .124; BABIP .373 → .346. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAltoona Curve · 218 PAwOBA .301 → .253 (−48)K% 27.1% → 34.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.06%÷0.959×1.220——34.42%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.72%÷1.022×0.700—×0.9885.90%
HBP% /PA1.38%—×0.850—×0.9881.16%
Singles /BIP24.81%÷1.018×0.970×0.997×0.98823.29%
Doubles /BIP5.26%÷0.948×0.860×0.997×0.9884.70%
Triples /BIP0.75%÷1.150×0.950×0.997×0.9880.61%
Home runs /BIP3.76%÷0.844×0.780—×0.9883.43%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .301 → .253; ISO .125 → .108; BABIP .315 → .291. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 151 PAwOBA .318 → .255 (−63)K% 23.2% → 29.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.18%÷0.948×1.200——29.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.95%÷0.977×0.690—×1.0185.71%
HBP% /PA0.66%—×0.940—×1.0180.63%
Singles /BIP22.33%÷1.009×0.930×0.989×1.01820.74%
Doubles /BIP8.74%÷1.050×0.830×0.989×1.0186.95%
Triples /BIP0.97%÷1.150×0.970×0.989×1.0180.82%
Home runs /BIP2.91%÷0.909×0.700—×1.0182.28%

Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 110, 3B 130, K 90, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.989.

Result: wOBA .318 → .255; ISO .145 → .109; BABIP .330 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAAltoona Curve · 486 PAwOBA .302 → .246 (−56)K% 21.4% → 26.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.40%÷1.003×1.220——26.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.64%÷1.058×0.700—×0.9985.71%
HBP% /PA1.03%—×0.850—×0.9980.87%
Singles /BIP24.92%÷1.032×0.970×0.990×0.99823.14%
Doubles /BIP4.80%÷1.142×0.860×0.990×0.9983.58%
Triples /BIP0.90%÷0.900×0.950×0.990×0.9980.94%
Home runs /BIP2.40%÷1.106×0.780—×0.9981.69%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .302 → .246; ISO .105 → .079; BABIP .314 → .281. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 AAAltoona Curve · 480 PAwOBA .271 → .223 (−48)K% 23.8% → 29.7%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA23.75%÷0.975×1.220——29.73%
BB% (unintentional) /PA7.08%÷1.006×0.700—×1.0124.99%
HBP% /PA1.04%—×0.850—×1.0120.90%
Singles /BIP20.00%÷1.010×0.970×0.967×1.01218.80%
Doubles /BIP5.54%÷0.928×0.860×0.967×1.0125.03%
Triples /BIP2.15%÷1.150×0.950×0.967×1.0121.74%
Home runs /BIP1.85%÷1.084×0.780—×1.0121.34%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .271 → .223; ISO .114 → .088; BABIP .282 → .259. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 350 PAwOBA .413 → .319 (−94)K% 21.1% → 27.9%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA21.14%÷1.021×1.350——27.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA12.00%÷1.085×0.710—×0.9987.84%
HBP% /PA0.57%—×0.810—×0.9980.46%
Singles /BIP25.33%÷0.981×0.910×0.987×0.99823.14%
Doubles /BIP6.11%÷0.918×0.830×0.987×0.9985.45%
Triples /BIP1.31%÷0.900×0.820×0.987×0.9981.18%
Home runs /BIP8.73%÷1.238×0.830—×0.9985.84%

Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 148, 1B 96, 2B 84, 3B 80, K 104, BB 117 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .413 → .319; ISO .264 → .187; BABIP .357 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).