Matt Fraizer — OGILVIE

Matt FraizerCF Portland Sea Dogs

Age 28 L/R 6'1" / 220 lbs AA H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 ROS PROJECTION93 act + 137 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.228 / .279 / .362

PA137

HR3

K%30

BB%6

BABIP310

ISO134

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 60 / POW 45

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT60

scouting grade only

POWER45

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	499	458	114	25	5	14	34	140	4	15	8	249	306	417	723	168	326	28	7	312	97	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	23	A+	2 teams	—	499	435	133	26	6	23	56	108	4	15	8	306	389	552	941	246	358	22	11	408	170	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	480	451	77	16	4	4	23	155	5	18	1	171	219	251	470	80	250	32	5	212	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	480	439	96	18	7	6	35	114	5	18	1	219	284	333	616	114	282	24	7	279	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	486	454	89	10	3	6	26	134	5	21	3	196	247	271	518	75	264	28	5	232	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	486	437	110	16	3	8	43	104	5	21	3	252	326	357	683	105	314	21	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	2 teams	—	369	341	68	12	1	9	21	130	4	16	5	199	254	320	574	120	289	35	6	253	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	26	AA	2 teams	—	369	330	82	16	2	8	32	94	4	16	5	248	322	382	704	133	322	25	9	315	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	205	56	16	1	3	11	57	0	14	2	273	310	405	715	132	358	26	5	304	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	197	60	18	1	3	19	44	0	14	2	305	366	452	818	147	373	20	9	357	132	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	28	AA	BOS	—	93	82	15	4	1	2	8	33	2	1	1	183	272	329	601	146	271	35	9	262	59	-4	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
YTD	28	AA	BOS	—	93	77	18	6	1	2	13	24	2	1	1	234	359	416	774	182	308	26	14	346	123	+2	-0	+0	+0	+3	0.5
ROS	28	AA	BOS	2%	137	127	29	6	1	3	8	41	1	4	1	228	279	362	642	134	306	30	6	278	71	-5	+0	+0	+0	+4	0.0
ROS	28	MLB	BOS	2%	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0						313	33	0	275	69	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	28	AA	BOS	—	96	85	15	4	1	2	8	34	2	1	1	176	263	318	581	141	260	35	8	263	59	-4	-0	+0	+0	+3	-0.2
TOT	28	AA	BOS	—	230	209	44	10	2	5	16	74	3	5	2	211	276	349	626	139	295	32	7	271	66	-9	+0	+0	+1	+7	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	29	MLB	BOS	23%	266	245	54	12	1	5	17	79	2	8	2	220	277	339	615	118	304	30	6	279	72	-8	+1	-1	+1	+8	-0.1
2028	30	MLB	BOS	35%	303	277	62	13	2	6	20	89	3	8	2	224	283	350	634	126	303	29	7	280	73	-9	+1	-2	+1	+9	-0.1
2027	29	MLB	BOS	23%	60	55	12	3	0	1	4	18	1	2	0	218	283	327	611	109	311	30	7	278	71	-2	+0	-0	+0	+2	0.0
2028	30	MLB	BOS	35%	105	96	22	5	0	2	7	31	1	3	1	229	288	344	632	115	310	30	7	279	71	-3	+0	-1	+0	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	168	154	34	8	0	3	11	50	2	5	1	221	281	331	613	110	304	30	7	278	71	-5	+1	-1	+1	+5	-0.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	596	132	31	0	12	43	193	8	19	4	221	283	334	617	112	304	30	7	278	71	-21	+2	-4	+2	+18	-0.2
Career	—			—	2760	2558	549	110	18	50	160	825	24	104	24	215	267	330	598	116	294	30	6	264	60	-125	+11	-3	+10	+78	-3.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	602	129	26	4	12	38	194	6	24	6	214	268	331	598	116	293	30	6	264	60	-29	+2	-1	+2	+18	-0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	23	AA	Altoona Curve	—	149	132	38	12	3	3	13	34	2	1	2	288	361	492	853	205	361	23	9	370	141	+7	-1	—	—	+4	1.1
2021	23	A+	Greensboro Grasshoppers	—	350	303	95	14	3	20	43	74	2	14	6	314	401	578	979	264	357	21	12	424	183	+33	+0	—	—	+10	4.4
2022	24	AA	Altoona Curve	—	480	439	96	18	7	6	35	114	5	18	1	219	284	333	616	114	282	24	7	279	72	-15	+3	—	—	+14	0.1
2023	25	AA	Altoona Curve	—	486	437	110	16	3	8	43	104	5	21	3	252	326	357	683	105	314	21	9	310	96	-2	+3	—	—	+14	1.5
2024	26	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	151	138	36	9	1	3	12	35	1	6	2	261	325	406	730	145	330	23	8	327	108	+1	+0	—	—	+4	0.6
2024	26	AA	Altoona Curve	—	218	192	46	7	1	5	20	59	3	10	3	240	321	365	686	125	315	27	9	307	93	-2	+1	—	—	+6	0.5
2025	27	AAA	Indianapolis Indians	—	220	197	60	18	1	3	19	44	0	14	2	305	366	452	818	147	373	20	9	357	132	+8	+2	—	—	+6	1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Matt Fraizer (OGILVIE)	28	60	45	60	40	211/276/349	139	295	5	5	32%	7%	66	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Bolivar 2009 · AAA	28	50→55	43→45	57→55	40	240/285/356	116	308	9	20	25%	5%	78	+0.2	208/249/310	102	274	9	24	26%	4%	50	-1.7	190/226/277	88	250	7	28	26%	3%	29	-2.0
✕Trent Oeltjen 2011 · MLB	28	49→59	44→50	57→55	40	237/282/367	131	306	9	22	25%	5%	79	+0.3	213/273/344	131	308	12	21	33%	6%	70	-0.3	197/265/332	135	297	13	22	36%	7%	63	-0.5
✕Matt Long 2015 · AAA	28	44→53	44→50	55	44	217/273/334	117	286	11	21	28%	7%	67	-0.5	200/252/305	105	265	10	14	27%	6%	51	-1.7	176/227/269	94	228	8	11	26%	6%	30	-2.6
✕Ben Copeland 2012 · AAA	28	50→55	43→45	54→55	46	244/296/365	121	304	9	19	22%	7%	85	+0.7	212/258/327	115	273	10	19	25%	6%	59	-1.1	156/192/240	84	201	7	28	26%	4%	4	-1.6
✕Freddie Bynum Jr. 2008 · MLB	28	50→52	44→40	60→55	40	239/286/372	133	318	10	26	27%	5%	82	+0.5	219/264/314	95	297	6	18	27%	5%	57	-1.2	210/251/287	77	286	4	14	27%	5%	42	-1.0
✕Matt Angle 2014 · MLB	28	46→56	39→40	57→60	43	218/281/304	87	302	7	22	29%	7%	63	-0.9	205/265/278	73	300	5	18	31%	7%	50	-1.8	187/249/226	39	279	1	18	31%	7%	26	-1.3
✕Jeremy Hazelbaker 2016 · AAA	28	48→54	44→55	61→60	39	230/276/355	124	328	10	25	32%	6%	73	-0.1	222/282/383	161	325	17	19	35%	7%	84	+0.6	200/267/370	170	298	20	19	38%	8%	69	-0.2
✕Kean Wong 2023 · MLB	28	49→59	38→45	58→55	42	232/280/307	76	315	5	29	27%	6%	62	-0.9	234/292/333	99	312	9	21	26%	7%	75	-0.0	247/317/338	91	316	11	15	24%	8%	82	+0.2
✕Xavier Avery 2017 · AAA	27	49→55	43→45	53→55	39	232/282/342	110	334	11	23	33%	6%	72	-0.2	219/285/344	125	386	13	20	42%	8%	76	+0.0	209/285/336	127	386	12	21	45%	9%	70	-0.2
✕Brian Miller 2023 · AAA	27	51→58	41→40	61→60	43	244/288/349	105	311	6	30	23%	6%	76	+0.1	226/280/326	100	292	7	24	24%	6%	67	-0.5	208/271/276	68	272	3	29	23%	7%	49	-0.9
✕Gorkys Hernández 2016 · AAA	28	51→59	40→45	54→55	41	242/290/338	96	326	8	22	27%	6%	75	-0.0	260/315/372	112	325	9	18	22%	7%	95	+1.4	263/321/381	118	325	11	16	21%	7%	95	+1.0
✕Brian Bixler 2011 · MLB	28	51→56	41→45	55	38	240/288/344	104	341	7	19	31%	5%	76	+0.0	227/283/317	90	324	6	18	30%	6%	66	-0.6	212/271/288	76	312	5	17	32%	6%	50	-0.9
✕Ian Miller 2021 · MLB	29	46→56	43→40	58→60	43	225/276/337	112	275	10	29	22%	6%	69	-0.4	228/277/322	94	285	7	21	21%	6%	66	-0.6	230/279/303	73	289	3	25	20%	5%	59	-0.7
✕Ben DeLuzio 2023 · MLB	28	45→49	42→45	59→60	40	217/273/330	112	295	9	29	29%	6%	66	-0.6	207/268/318	111	304	11	20	33%	6%	62	-0.9	148/223/226	79	244	8	18	40%	7%	18	-1.1
●Jason Pridie 2012 · MLB	28	46→54	43→50	54→55	44	226/275/340	114	283	11	18	24%	6%	69	-0.4	234/280/357	123	302	12	14	26%	6%	76	+0.0	243/290/391	148	303	17	19	25%	6%	86	+0.7
✕Adam Stern 2008 · MLB	28	48→56	40	56→55	41	233/269/331	98	294	7	24	23%	4%	64	-0.8	244/286/335	91	299	6	21	19%	5%	72	-0.2	259/307/347	88	309	5	21	17%	6%	79	+0.2
✕Nathan Haynes 2007 · AAA	27	49	41→40	55	42	232/282/342	110	315	7	25	28%	6%	72	-0.2	252/296/347	95	333	6	25	25%	5%	79	+0.3	267/307/348	81	350	5	28	24%	5%	81	+0.2
✕Chris Rahl 2012 · AAA	28	51→56	42→50	56→55	37	244/282/361	117	332	8	19	28%	4%	77	+0.1	247/275/373	126	334	12	21	29%	3%	78	+0.2	245/266/365	119	329	13	21	29%	2%	69	-0.3
✕Tyrell Godwin 2007 · AAA	28	50→60	41→45	53→50	45	243/290/349	106	289	8	19	19%	6%	77	+0.1	227/278/337	110	280	10	14	22%	6%	70	-0.3	222/276/322	100	274	9	11	22%	7%	62	-0.7
✕Elliot Johnson 2011 · MLB	27	49→53	45	56→60	41	241/283/363	122	308	12	23	26%	5%	79	+0.3	226/278/341	115	294	11	27	26%	6%	71	-0.3	211/268/314	103	276	10	35	26%	7%	58	-0.5