Sammy Siani
CF Arkansas Travelers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | AA/A+/INTL2 orgs | 568 | .283/.359/.424 | 12 | 22 | 95 | — | .238/.291/.352 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA/AAPIT | 409 | .209/.303/.324 | 7 | 19 | 42 | — | .181/.244/.272 |
| 2026 | 25 | AASEA | 235 | .245/.307/.392 | 7 | 17 | 59 | — | .211/.255/.321 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBSEA | 3 | .211/.266/.316 | 0 | 0 | 65 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBSEA | 49 | .212/.268/.318 | 1 | 2 | 66 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Pirates | — | 164 | 133 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 41 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 241 | 377 | 308 | 685 | 68 | 340 | 25 | 16 | 321 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Bradenton Marauders | — | 258 | 200 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 63 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 215 | 382 | 390 | 772 | 175 | 263 | 24 | 20 | 349 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 334 | 284 | 57 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 46 | 121 | 3 | 25 | 5 | 201 | 318 | 306 | 625 | 106 | 321 | 36 | 14 | 292 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | INTL | Sydney Blue Sox | — | 156 | 141 | 41 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 291 | 355 | 546 | 901 | 255 | 333 | 22 | 8 | 390 | 150 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 398 | 338 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 51 | 126 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 231 | 338 | 364 | 702 | 133 | 337 | 32 | 13 | 318 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 394 | 351 | 89 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 81 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 254 | 326 | 368 | 694 | 114 | 315 | 21 | 9 | 310 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 82 | 71 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 324 | 407 | 563 | 971 | 239 | 322 | 11 | 12 | 419 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | INTL | Scottsdale Scorpions | — | 92 | 80 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 375 | 457 | 550 | 1.007 | 175 | 443 | 17 | 12 | 445 | 188 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | — | 104 | 92 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 261 | 340 | 424 | 764 | 163 | 294 | 20 | 11 | 339 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 305 | 266 | 51 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 66 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 192 | 290 | 289 | 580 | 98 | 242 | 22 | 12 | 268 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Arkansas Travelers | — | 235 | 212 | 52 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 50 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 245 | 307 | 392 | 699 | 146 | 283 | 21 | 8 | 307 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Pirates | — | 164 | 143 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 59 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 168 | 265 | 210 | 475 | 42 | 274 | 36 | 10 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 258 | 220 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 87 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 173 | 283 | 286 | 570 | 114 | 241 | 34 | 12 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 334 | 304 | 46 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 159 | 3 | 25 | 5 | 151 | 225 | 214 | 439 | 62 | 298 | 48 | 8 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 398 | 359 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 164 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 173 | 244 | 259 | 503 | 86 | 284 | 41 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 394 | 362 | 85 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 103 | 3 | 14 | 5 | 235 | 288 | 337 | 625 | 102 | 307 | 26 | 6 | 271 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 82 | 75 | 19 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 253 | 309 | 427 | 735 | 173 | 267 | 13 | 7 | 332 | 111 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA MLE | Indianapolis Indians | — | 104 | 96 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 229 | 282 | 354 | 636 | 125 | 275 | 25 | 7 | 279 | 75 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 305 | 279 | 46 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 85 | 1 | 16 | 3 | 165 | 231 | 244 | 475 | 79 | 222 | 28 | 8 | 214 | 31 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 235 | 218 | 46 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 61 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 211 | 255 | 321 | 577 | 110 | 256 | 26 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Pirates | — | 164 | 143 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 59 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 168 | 265 | 210 | 475 | 42 | 279 | 36 | 10 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Pirates | — | 164 | 133 | 32 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 26 | 41 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 241 | 377 | 308 | 685 | 68 | 340 | 25 | 16 | 321 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 258 | 220 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 87 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 173 | 283 | 286 | 570 | 114 | 250 | 34 | 12 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A RAW | Bradenton Marauders | — | 258 | 200 | 43 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 52 | 63 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 215 | 382 | 390 | 772 | 175 | 263 | 24 | 20 | 349 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 490 | 445 | 68 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 233 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 153 | 227 | 216 | 443 | 63 | 300 | 48 | 8 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 490 | 425 | 98 | 19 | 1 | 15 | 59 | 156 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 231 | 330 | 386 | 716 | 155 | 325 | 32 | 12 | 323 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 398 | 359 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 164 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 173 | 244 | 259 | 503 | 86 | 293 | 41 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 398 | 338 | 78 | 16 | 1 | 9 | 51 | 126 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 231 | 338 | 364 | 702 | 133 | 337 | 32 | 13 | 318 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 568 | 522 | 124 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 36 | 136 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 238 | 292 | 349 | 640 | 111 | 303 | 24 | 6 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | 3 teams | — | 568 | 502 | 142 | 23 | 6 | 12 | 56 | 106 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 283 | 359 | 424 | 784 | 141 | 336 | 19 | 10 | 348 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 375 | 68 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 111 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 181 | 244 | 272 | 516 | 91 | 238 | 27 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 409 | 358 | 75 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 47 | 87 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 209 | 303 | 324 | 627 | 115 | 256 | 21 | 11 | 286 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 235 | 218 | 46 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 61 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 211 | 255 | 321 | 577 | 110 | 263 | 26 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | Arkansas Travelers | — | 235 | 212 | 52 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 50 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 245 | 307 | 392 | 699 | 146 | 283 | 21 | 8 | 307 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Pirates | — | 164 | 144 | 24 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 59 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 167 | 265 | 208 | 474 | 42 | 274 | 36 | 10 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Bradenton Marauders | — | 258 | 222 | 38 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 32 | 87 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 171 | 283 | 284 | 567 | 113 | 241 | 34 | 12 | 259 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 490 | 444 | 68 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 233 | 4 | 29 | 5 | 153 | 227 | 216 | 444 | 63 | 298 | 48 | 8 | 205 | 25 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 398 | 361 | 62 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 30 | 164 | 4 | 16 | 8 | 172 | 244 | 258 | 502 | 86 | 284 | 41 | 8 | 225 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 568 | 523 | 124 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 36 | 136 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 237 | 292 | 348 | 640 | 111 | 300 | 24 | 6 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 375 | 68 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 111 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 181 | 244 | 272 | 516 | 91 | 235 | 27 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 235 | 220 | 46 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 61 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 209 | 255 | 318 | 574 | 109 | 256 | 26 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | 3 teams | — | 568 | 523 | 124 | 19 | 6 | 9 | 36 | 136 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 237 | 292 | 348 | 640 | 111 | 300 | 24 | 6 | 282 | 77 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 409 | 375 | 68 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 111 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 181 | 244 | 272 | 516 | 91 | 235 | 27 | 7 | 231 | 42 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Arkansas Travelers | — | 235 | 220 | 46 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 61 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 209 | 255 | 318 | 574 | 109 | 256 | 26 | 6 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | SEA | 2% | 285 | 263 | 56 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 72 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 213 | 268 | 321 | 588 | 107 | 271 | 25 | 7 | 264 | 65 | -12 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | SEA | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 211 | 266 | 316 | 582 | 105 | 269 | 33 | 0 | 262 | 65 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | SEA | 27% | 181 | 166 | 35 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 46 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 214 | 270 | 322 | 592 | 109 | 272 | 25 | 7 | 266 | 66 | -7 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | SEA | 27% | 49 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 212 | 268 | 318 | 586 | 106 | 270 | 24 | 6 | 263 | 66 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 49 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 196 | 245 | 283 | 528 | 87 | 242 | 24 | 6 | 263 | 51 | -2 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 610 | 119 | 13 | 0 | 13 | 40 | 159 | 0 | 27 | 13 | 195 | 245 | 280 | 525 | 85 | 242 | 24 | 6 | 263 | 51 | -26 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -1.0 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2853 | 2587 | 495 | 74 | 18 | 43 | 218 | 935 | 19 | 128 | 36 | 191 | 259 | 284 | 543 | 92 | 277 | 33 | 8 | 244 | 51 | -14 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 113 | 17 | 4 | 10 | 50 | 213 | 4 | 29 | 8 | 192 | 260 | 285 | 545 | 93 | 278 | 33 | 8 | 244 | 51 | -27 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAArkansas Travelers · 235 PAwOBA .304 → .256 (−49)K% 21.3% → 26.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.28% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.96% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.09% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 5.59% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.013 | ×0.988 | 21.04% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.013 | ×0.988 | 3.11% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.23% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.013 | ×0.988 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.32% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 3.42% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.
Result: wOBA .304 → .256; ISO .146 → .119; BABIP .283 → .256. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAltoona Curve · 305 PAwOBA .260 → .214 (−46)K% 21.6% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.64% | ÷0.947 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.15% | ÷1.033 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 7.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.33% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×0.998 | 0.28% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.50% | ÷1.024 | ×0.970 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 16.65% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.50% | ÷1.036 | ×0.860 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 3.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.006 | ×0.998 | 1.66% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.50% | ÷0.891 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.998 | 1.31% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 105, 2B 107, 3B 130, K 89, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .260 → .214; ISO .098 → .081; BABIP .242 → .222. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIndianapolis Indians · 104 PAwOBA .333 → .279 (−54)K% 20.2% → 25.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.19% | ÷0.965 | ×1.200 | — | — | 25.11% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.58% | ÷1.112 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.033 | 6.78% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.94% | ÷1.008 | ×0.930 | ×1.008 | ×1.033 | 23.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.23% | ÷0.995 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.033 | 3.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.970 | ×1.008 | ×1.033 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.63% | ÷0.915 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.033 | 4.45% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 83, 1B 102, 2B 99, 3B 130, K 93, BB 122 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .333 → .279; ISO .163 → .131; BABIP .294 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAAltoona Curve · 394 PAwOBA .304 → .271 (−33)K% 20.6% → 26.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.56% | ÷0.959 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.88% | ÷1.022 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 6.16% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.76% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.65% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.07% | ÷1.018 | ×0.970 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 23.92% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.81% | ÷0.948 | ×0.860 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 4.55% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | ×1.012 | 1.91% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.85% | ÷0.844 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.73% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 69, 1B 104, 2B 90, 3B 130, K 92, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.030.
Result: wOBA .304 → .271; ISO .114 → .102; BABIP .315 → .307. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 82 PAwOBA .413 → .332 (−81)K% 11.0% → 14.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.98% | ÷1.029 | ×1.310 | — | — | 13.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.20% | ÷0.974 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.988 | 7.42% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷1.024 | ×0.870 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 19.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.06% | ÷0.950 | ×0.780 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 6.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.010 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.45% | ÷1.106 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 5.07% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 105, 2B 90, 3B 80, K 106, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .413 → .332; ISO .239 → .198; BABIP .322 → .267. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 398 PAwOBA .312 → .225 (−86)K% 31.7% → 41.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 31.66% | ÷1.005 | ×1.310 | — | — | 41.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.81% | ÷1.007 | ×0.600 | — | ×0.998 | 7.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×0.998 | 0.77% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.53% | ÷1.016 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 22.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.55% | ÷1.154 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.47% | ÷0.900 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.47% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.25% | ÷1.202 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.998 | 3.10% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 103, 2B 131, 3B 80, K 101, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .312 → .225; ISO .133 → .092; BABIP .337 → .284. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Greensboro Grasshoppers · 334 PAwOBA .285 → .205 (−80)K% 36.2% → 47.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.23% | ÷0.999 | ×1.310 | — | — | 47.52% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.77% | ÷1.063 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 7.87% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.90% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.15% | ÷0.961 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 24.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.52% | ÷0.963 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 4.75% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.29% | ÷1.273 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.00% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 92, 2B 93, 3B 130, K 100, BB 113 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .285 → .205; ISO .106 → .071; BABIP .321 → .298. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ABradenton Marauders · 258 PAwOBA .347 → .259 (−88)K% 24.4% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.42% | ÷0.989 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 20.16% | ÷1.130 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 12.49% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.78% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.61% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.98% | ÷0.976 | ×0.920 | ×1.001 | ×1.015 | 18.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.11% | ÷0.943 | ×0.830 | ×1.001 | ×1.015 | 4.57% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.46% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×1.001 | ×1.015 | 1.17% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.84% | ÷1.302 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.64% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 160, 1B 95, 2B 89, 3B 130, K 98, BB 126 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.001.
Result: wOBA .347 → .259; ISO .175 → .123; BABIP .263 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .