Marcus Lee Sang
RF Frisco RoughRiders| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 22 | AA/A+PHI | 535 | .254/.359/.414 | 11 | 22 | 65 | — | .197/.273/.322 |
| 2024 | 23 | AAPHI | 425 | .239/.301/.397 | 13 | 12 | 64 | — | .218/.265/.338 |
| 2026 | 25 | AATEX | 439 | .307/.374/.479 | 16 | 16 | 97 | — | .267/.319/.400 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBTEX | 3 | .227/.279/.359 | 0 | 0 | 76 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 27 | MLBTEX | 45 | .227/.281/.360 | 1 | 1 | 77 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 33 / POW 47
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | GCL Phillies East | — | 138 | 125 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 224 | 287 | 320 | 607 | 96 | 313 | 30 | 8 | 272 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 37 | 33 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 212 | 297 | 242 | 540 | 30 | 318 | 30 | 11 | 257 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Phillies | — | 96 | 88 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 273 | 333 | 534 | 867 | 261 | 328 | 26 | 7 | 377 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 79 | 71 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 254 | 329 | 437 | 766 | 183 | 319 | 27 | 6 | 342 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Clearwater Threshers | — | 334 | 293 | 76 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 100 | 4 | 18 | 7 | 259 | 341 | 389 | 730 | 130 | 362 | 30 | 10 | 328 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 99 | 87 | 17 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 33 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 195 | 293 | 368 | 661 | 172 | 275 | 33 | 11 | 299 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 436 | 370 | 99 | 20 | 7 | 8 | 58 | 130 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 268 | 374 | 424 | 798 | 157 | 387 | 30 | 13 | 357 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 425 | 385 | 92 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 100 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 239 | 301 | 397 | 698 | 158 | 285 | 24 | 7 | 307 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 439 | 397 | 122 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 36 | 110 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 307 | 374 | 479 | 852 | 171 | 391 | 25 | 8 | 379 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies East | — | 138 | 129 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 140 | 184 | 186 | 370 | 47 | 243 | 43 | 5 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 37 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 243 | 206 | 449 | 29 | 292 | 41 | 8 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Phillies | — | 96 | 91 | 17 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 36 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 187 | 229 | 352 | 581 | 165 | 255 | 38 | 4 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 79 | 73 | 16 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 219 | 278 | 397 | 676 | 178 | 286 | 34 | 4 | 275 | 72 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Clearwater Threshers | — | 334 | 304 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 136 | 4 | 18 | 7 | 207 | 272 | 303 | 575 | 95 | 336 | 41 | 7 | 253 | 57 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 99 | 90 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 40 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 156 | 232 | 278 | 510 | 122 | 257 | 40 | 8 | 234 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | Jersey Shore BlueClaws | — | 436 | 392 | 81 | 15 | 5 | 8 | 36 | 171 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 207 | 282 | 332 | 613 | 125 | 333 | 39 | 8 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 425 | 394 | 86 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 125 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 218 | 265 | 338 | 602 | 119 | 286 | 29 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 439 | 408 | 109 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 134 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 267 | 319 | 400 | 718 | 132 | 368 | 31 | 6 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies East | — | 138 | 129 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 140 | 184 | 186 | 370 | 47 | 243 | 43 | 5 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | GCL Phillies East | — | 138 | 125 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 42 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 224 | 287 | 320 | 607 | 96 | 313 | 30 | 8 | 272 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 133 | 125 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 51 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 184 | 233 | 312 | 545 | 128 | 282 | 38 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 133 | 121 | 31 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 36 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 256 | 323 | 455 | 778 | 198 | 325 | 27 | 8 | 344 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 377 | 79 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 163 | 7 | 19 | 9 | 210 | 273 | 321 | 594 | 111 | 337 | 39 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 413 | 364 | 94 | 14 | 2 | 11 | 38 | 121 | 7 | 19 | 9 | 258 | 339 | 398 | 737 | 140 | 353 | 29 | 9 | 330 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 482 | 95 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 44 | 212 | 6 | 22 | 10 | 197 | 273 | 320 | 592 | 122 | 323 | 40 | 8 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 535 | 457 | 116 | 26 | 7 | 11 | 69 | 163 | 6 | 22 | 10 | 254 | 359 | 414 | 773 | 160 | 367 | 30 | 13 | 346 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 425 | 394 | 86 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 125 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 218 | 265 | 338 | 602 | 119 | 291 | 29 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA RAW | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 425 | 385 | 92 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 100 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 239 | 301 | 397 | 698 | 158 | 285 | 24 | 7 | 307 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 439 | 408 | 109 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 134 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 267 | 319 | 400 | 718 | 132 | 370 | 31 | 6 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA RAW | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 439 | 397 | 122 | 16 | 2 | 16 | 36 | 110 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 307 | 374 | 479 | 852 | 171 | 391 | 25 | 8 | 379 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Phillies East | — | 138 | 130 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 60 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 138 | 184 | 185 | 368 | 46 | 243 | 43 | 5 | 176 | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 133 | 124 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 51 | 1 | 11 | 3 | 185 | 233 | 315 | 548 | 129 | 265 | 38 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 413 | 377 | 79 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 26 | 163 | 7 | 19 | 9 | 210 | 273 | 321 | 594 | 111 | 326 | 39 | 6 | 257 | 60 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 535 | 480 | 95 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 44 | 212 | 6 | 22 | 10 | 198 | 273 | 321 | 593 | 123 | 319 | 40 | 8 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 425 | 397 | 86 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 125 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 217 | 265 | 335 | 600 | 118 | 286 | 29 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 439 | 405 | 109 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 134 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 269 | 319 | 402 | 721 | 133 | 368 | 31 | 6 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | AA MLE | Reading Fightin Phils | — | 425 | 397 | 86 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 125 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 217 | 265 | 335 | 600 | 118 | 286 | 29 | 5 | 263 | 64 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | AA MLE | Frisco RoughRiders | — | 439 | 405 | 109 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 25 | 134 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 269 | 319 | 402 | 721 | 133 | 368 | 31 | 6 | 312 | 97 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | TEX | 2% | 380 | 352 | 79 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 21 | 110 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 225 | 278 | 352 | 630 | 127 | 295 | 29 | 6 | 281 | 76 | -11 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +8 | 0.1 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB CTX | TEX | 2% | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 227 | 279 | 359 | 639 | 132 | 295 | 33 | 0 | 284 | 76 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | TEX | 27% | 167 | 153 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 225 | 279 | 353 | 632 | 127 | 294 | 29 | 6 | 282 | 77 | -5 | +0 | +0 | -2 | +4 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | TEX | 27% | 45 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 227 | 281 | 360 | 640 | 132 | 295 | 29 | 7 | 285 | 77 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 45 | 42 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 214 | 267 | 310 | 576 | 95 | 286 | 29 | 7 | 285 | 67 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +1 | -0.1 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 607 | 129 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 43 | 188 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 213 | 265 | 305 | 569 | 92 | 284 | 29 | 7 | 285 | 67 | -18 | +3 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2405 | 2211 | 478 | 70 | 18 | 52 | 149 | 838 | 28 | 94 | 41 | 216 | 274 | 335 | 609 | 118 | 319 | 35 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -9 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +7 | -0.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 598 | 129 | 19 | 5 | 14 | 40 | 226 | 8 | 25 | 11 | 216 | 274 | 334 | 609 | 119 | 318 | 35 | 6 | 267 | 67 | -18 | +1 | +0 | -7 | +14 | -1.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAFrisco RoughRiders · 439 PAwOBA .368 → .312 (−56)K% 25.1% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.06% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.97% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 5.57% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.37% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 1.19% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 29.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 4.91% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.70% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×1.050 | ×0.998 | 0.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 4.45% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .368 → .312; ISO .171 → .136; BABIP .391 → .368. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AAReading Fightin Phils · 425 PAwOBA .302 → .263 (−40)K% 23.5% → 29.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.53% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.47% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.06% | ÷1.013 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.94% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.82% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.75% | ÷0.997 | ×0.970 | ×1.038 | ×1.027 | 22.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.21% | ÷1.022 | ×0.860 | ×1.038 | ×1.027 | 3.78% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.983 | ×0.950 | ×1.038 | ×1.027 | 1.81% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.56% | ÷1.137 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 3.21% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 127, 1B 99, 2B 104, 3B 97, K 95, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.038.
Result: wOBA .302 → .263; ISO .158 → .122; BABIP .285 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 436 PAwOBA .351 → .270 (−81)K% 29.8% → 39.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.82% | ÷0.993 | ×1.310 | — | — | 39.32% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.30% | ÷0.973 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.012 | 8.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.15% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.012 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.006 | ×0.870 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 23.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷1.034 | ×0.780 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 6.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.92% | ÷1.071 | ×0.850 | ×1.017 | ×1.012 | 2.38% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.33% | ÷0.858 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.012 | 3.46% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 72, 1B 101, 2B 107, 3B 114, K 99, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.017.
Result: wOBA .351 → .270; ISO .157 → .131; BABIP .387 → .333. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAReading Fightin Phils · 99 PAwOBA .291 → .234 (−58)K% 33.3% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 40.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.11% | ÷0.975 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 8.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.01% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.042 | 0.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.81% | ÷1.017 | ×0.970 | ×0.996 | ×1.042 | 14.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 11.11% | ÷0.999 | ×0.860 | ×0.996 | ×1.042 | 9.93% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.005 | ×0.950 | ×0.996 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.56% | ÷1.050 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.042 | 4.30% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 110, 1B 103, 2B 100, 3B 101, K 100, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .291 → .234; ISO .172 → .130; BABIP .275 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AClearwater Threshers · 334 PAwOBA .322 → .253 (−69)K% 29.9% → 40.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.94% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.72% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.92% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.20% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.95% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 27.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 5.35% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.022 | ×1.015 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.15% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 3.37% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .322 → .253; ISO .130 → .096; BABIP .362 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 A+Jersey Shore BlueClaws · 79 PAwOBA .332 → .275 (−57)K% 26.6% → 34.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.58% | ÷1.022 | ×1.310 | — | — | 34.06% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.33% | ÷1.057 | ×0.600 | — | ×1.027 | 3.69% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.80% | — | ×0.770 | — | ×1.027 | 3.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.00% | ÷1.044 | ×0.870 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 21.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.780 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 3.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.00% | ÷0.966 | ×0.850 | ×1.050 | ×1.027 | 1.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 6.00% | ÷0.881 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.027 | 6.16% |
Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 109, 2B 97, 3B 93, K 104, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .332 → .275; ISO .183 → .169; BABIP .319 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Phillies · 96 PAwOBA .363 → .247 (−116)K% 26.0% → 37.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.04% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.25% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 3.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.04% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.05% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 15.83% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.52% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 6.95% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.59% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.019 | ×0.995 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.94% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 6.16% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.019.
Result: wOBA .363 → .247; ISO .261 → .175; BABIP .328 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 AClearwater Threshers · 37 PAwOBA .251 → .194 (−57)K% 29.7% → 40.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.73% | ÷0.992 | ×1.360 | — | — | 40.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.81% | ÷0.980 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.27% | ÷1.036 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.030 | 24.96% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.55% | ÷0.915 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.030 | 4.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.993 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 107, 2B 83, 3B 130, K 98, BB 96 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .251 → .194; ISO .030 → .024; BABIP .318 → .292. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).