Rubel Cespedes
3B Rancho Cucamonga Quakes| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 23 | A+MIN | 463 | .282/.347/.431 | 12 | 5 | 63 | — | .226/.273/.321 |
| 2025 | 24 | AAMIN | 398 | .244/.315/.394 | 9 | 1 | 55 | — | .200/.254/.314 |
| 2026 | 25 | ALAA | 21 | .150/.190/.300 | 1 | 0 | -12 | — | .150/.190/.300 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 26 | MLBLAA | 200 | .219/.269/.333 | 4 | 2 | 68 | 0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ26% MLB | 27 | MLBLAA | 34 | .218/.269/.332 | 1 | 0 | 69 | -0.0 |
Tools · ContractCON 50 / POW 45
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK | DSL Twins | — | 180 | 166 | 45 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 271 | 324 | 404 | 728 | 133 | 328 | 18 | 5 | 323 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK | FCL Twins | — | 143 | 127 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 157 | 246 | 283 | 530 | 126 | 205 | 29 | 9 | 243 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 279 | 255 | 74 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 290 | 344 | 396 | 740 | 106 | 355 | 20 | 6 | 330 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 476 | 420 | 98 | 26 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 101 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 316 | 398 | 714 | 164 | 273 | 21 | 11 | 317 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 463 | 418 | 118 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 93 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 282 | 347 | 431 | 778 | 148 | 337 | 20 | 8 | 346 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 398 | 360 | 88 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 315 | 394 | 709 | 150 | 277 | 17 | 9 | 317 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 300 | 490 | 150 | 154 | 29 | 5 | 218 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 180 | 169 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 154 | 201 | 213 | 414 | 59 | 202 | 22 | 3 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 143 | 132 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 61 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 98 | 162 | 174 | 336 | 76 | 150 | 43 | 6 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 279 | 261 | 65 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 78 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 249 | 290 | 333 | 623 | 84 | 330 | 28 | 4 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 476 | 438 | 83 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 142 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 246 | 311 | 557 | 121 | 247 | 30 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 463 | 433 | 98 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 121 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 226 | 273 | 321 | 594 | 95 | 293 | 26 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 398 | 370 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 254 | 314 | 568 | 114 | 241 | 22 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 300 | 490 | 150 | 133 | 38 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 180 | 169 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 154 | 201 | 213 | 414 | 59 | 198 | 22 | 3 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Twins | — | 180 | 166 | 45 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 271 | 324 | 404 | 728 | 133 | 328 | 18 | 5 | 323 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 143 | 132 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 61 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 98 | 162 | 174 | 336 | 76 | 157 | 43 | 6 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK RAW | FCL Twins | — | 143 | 127 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 42 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 157 | 246 | 283 | 530 | 126 | 205 | 29 | 9 | 243 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 279 | 261 | 65 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 78 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 249 | 290 | 333 | 623 | 84 | 339 | 28 | 4 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 279 | 255 | 74 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 57 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 290 | 344 | 396 | 740 | 106 | 355 | 20 | 6 | 330 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 476 | 438 | 83 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 142 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 246 | 311 | 557 | 121 | 251 | 30 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A RAW | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 476 | 420 | 98 | 26 | 2 | 13 | 50 | 101 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 233 | 316 | 398 | 714 | 164 | 273 | 21 | 11 | 317 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 463 | 433 | 98 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 121 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 226 | 273 | 321 | 594 | 95 | 294 | 26 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ RAW | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 463 | 418 | 118 | 22 | 2 | 12 | 39 | 93 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 282 | 347 | 431 | 778 | 148 | 337 | 20 | 8 | 346 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 398 | 370 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 200 | 254 | 314 | 568 | 114 | 242 | 22 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA RAW | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 398 | 360 | 88 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 67 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 244 | 315 | 394 | 709 | 150 | 277 | 17 | 9 | 317 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 300 | 490 | 150 | 182 | 38 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A RAW | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 300 | 490 | 150 | 154 | 29 | 5 | 218 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Twins | — | 180 | 168 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 39 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 155 | 201 | 214 | 415 | 60 | 202 | 22 | 3 | 193 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 20 | ROK MLE | FCL Twins | — | 143 | 132 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 61 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 98 | 162 | 174 | 336 | 76 | 150 | 43 | 6 | 151 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 279 | 262 | 65 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 78 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 248 | 290 | 332 | 622 | 84 | 330 | 28 | 4 | 272 | 70 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 22 | A MLE | Fort Myers Mighty Mussels | — | 476 | 440 | 83 | 19 | 2 | 10 | 32 | 142 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 189 | 246 | 309 | 555 | 120 | 247 | 30 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 463 | 432 | 98 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 121 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 227 | 273 | 322 | 595 | 95 | 293 | 26 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 398 | 368 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 254 | 315 | 570 | 114 | 241 | 22 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 300 | 490 | 150 | 133 | 38 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 23 | A+ MLE | Cedar Rapids Kernels | — | 463 | 432 | 98 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 25 | 121 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 227 | 273 | 322 | 595 | 95 | 293 | 26 | 5 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA MLE | Wichita Wind Surge | — | 398 | 368 | 74 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 87 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 201 | 254 | 315 | 570 | 114 | 241 | 22 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 25 | A MLE | Rancho Cucamonga Quakes | — | 21 | 20 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 150 | 190 | 300 | 490 | 150 | 133 | 38 | 5 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAA | 0% | 200 | 185 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 47 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 219 | 269 | 333 | 602 | 114 | 270 | 24 | 6 | 269 | 68 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +4 | 0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAA | 26% | 130 | 120 | 26 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 219 | 271 | 334 | 604 | 115 | 271 | 24 | 6 | 270 | 69 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +3 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAA | 26% | 34 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 218 | 269 | 332 | 601 | 114 | 269 | 24 | 6 | 269 | 69 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 34 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 265 | 344 | 608 | 125 | 261 | 24 | 6 | 269 | 51 | -1 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +1 | -0.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 612 | 134 | 19 | 0 | 19 | 38 | 153 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 219 | 265 | 343 | 608 | 124 | 261 | 24 | 6 | 269 | 51 | -24 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2174 | 2022 | 405 | 80 | 9 | 35 | 121 | 587 | 17 | 17 | 8 | 200 | 251 | 301 | 552 | 100 | 262 | 27 | 6 | 244 | 51 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 605 | 121 | 24 | 3 | 10 | 36 | 176 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 200 | 251 | 299 | 550 | 99 | 262 | 27 | 6 | 244 | 51 | -24 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ARancho Cucamonga Quakes · 21 PAwOBA .212 → .150 (−62)K% 28.6% → 38.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.57% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 38.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.960 | 3.15% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.29% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.960 | 12.62% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.960 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 7.14% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.960 | 5.49% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.0 → −4.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.0 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .212 → .150; ISO .150 → .100; BABIP .154 → .133. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAWichita Wind Surge · 398 PAwOBA .310 → .250 (−60)K% 16.8% → 21.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.83% | ÷0.941 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.79% | ÷0.992 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.998 | 6.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.50% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.998 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.77% | ÷1.025 | ×0.920 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 16.88% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.17% | ÷1.031 | ×0.840 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 5.85% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.150 | ×0.940 | ×1.004 | ×0.998 | 0.84% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.07% | ÷0.986 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 2.49% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 97, 1B 105, 2B 106, 3B 130, K 88, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.
Result: wOBA .310 → .250; ISO .150 → .119; BABIP .277 → .241. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+Cedar Rapids Kernels · 463 PAwOBA .337 → .262 (−75)K% 20.1% → 26.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.09% | ÷0.972 | ×1.270 | — | — | 26.24% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.21% | ÷1.043 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 5.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.65% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.988 | 0.51% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.23% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 23.45% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.77% | ÷1.119 | ×0.810 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 4.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.62% | ÷1.146 | ×0.850 | ×1.006 | ×0.988 | 0.45% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.69% | ÷1.191 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 2.45% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 138, 1B 97, 2B 124, 3B 129, K 94, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .337 → .262; ISO .148 → .098; BABIP .337 → .293. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 476 PAwOBA .311 → .246 (−66)K% 21.2% → 29.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.22% | ÷0.969 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.78% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.29% | ÷1.050 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.990 | 6.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.21% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.990 | 0.16% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.87% | ÷0.938 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | ×0.990 | 17.35% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.15% | ÷1.053 | ×0.830 | ×1.000 | ×0.990 | 6.36% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.63% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.000 | ×0.990 | 0.63% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.08% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.990 | 3.31% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 88, 2B 111, 3B 80, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .311 → .246; ISO .164 → .126; BABIP .273 → .247. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AFort Myers Mighty Mussels · 279 PAwOBA .325 → .272 (−54)K% 20.4% → 28.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.43% | ÷0.991 | ×1.360 | — | — | 28.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.09% | ÷1.026 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.10% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.43% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.78% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | ×1.008 | — | 26.07% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.58% | ÷0.916 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | — | 6.92% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.008 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 1.62% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 98, 2B 83, 3B 80, K 98, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .325 → .272; ISO .106 → .086; BABIP .355 → .330. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKFCL Twins · 143 PAwOBA .238 → .151 (−87)K% 29.4% → 42.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.37% | ÷0.996 | ×1.440 | — | — | 42.46% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.09% | ÷0.989 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 5.61% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.40% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 14.12% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | ×0.964 | ×0.985 | 10.70% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.53% | ÷0.982 | ×0.720 | ×0.964 | ×0.985 | 2.46% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.35% | ÷1.004 | ×0.720 | ×0.964 | ×0.985 | 1.60% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.53% | ÷0.982 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 2.76% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 96, 1B 105, 2B 96, 3B 101, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.964.
Result: wOBA .238 → .151; ISO .126 → .080; BABIP .205 → .150. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 DSLDSL Twins · 180 PAwOBA .316 → .193 (−123)K% 17.8% → 21.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 17.78% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 21.69% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 3.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.22% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 1.55% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.64% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 13.91% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.21% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 4.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.99% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 1.69% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.75% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.35% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .316 → .193; ISO .133 → .072; BABIP .328 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).