David Calabrese
OF Rocket City Trash Pandas| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 21 | AALAA | 136 | .209/.346/.345 | 4 | 4 | 59 | — | .181/.286/.284 |
| 2025 | 22 | AA/A+LAA | 405 | .206/.281/.328 | 10 | 14 | 35 | — | .173/.229/.272 |
| 2026 | 23 | AA/A+2 orgs | 333 | .249/.316/.394 | 8 | 14 | 61 | — | .212/.261/.326 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 24 | MLBLAA | 4 | .205/.259/.317 | 0 | 0 | 62 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ31% MLB | 25 | MLBLAA | 73 | .207/.263/.324 | 2 | 1 | 65 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK | ACL Angels | — | 165 | 144 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 54 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 201 | 303 | 306 | 609 | 104 | 315 | 33 | 12 | 282 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 488 | 424 | 106 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 50 | 116 | 3 | 26 | 2 | 250 | 333 | 387 | 720 | 137 | 317 | 24 | 10 | 317 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 535 | 458 | 89 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 164 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 194 | 309 | 345 | 654 | 151 | 265 | 31 | 13 | 300 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 136 | 110 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 41 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 209 | 346 | 345 | 691 | 136 | 292 | 30 | 17 | 314 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 268 | 239 | 48 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 63 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 201 | 277 | 285 | 561 | 84 | 251 | 24 | 8 | 257 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 137 | 121 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 215 | 291 | 413 | 704 | 198 | 233 | 20 | 9 | 305 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 261 | 231 | 51 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 51 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 221 | 297 | 351 | 648 | 130 | 260 | 20 | 9 | 288 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | — | 72 | 66 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 348 | 386 | 545 | 931 | 197 | 370 | 12 | 6 | 398 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 165 | 151 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 78 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 119 | 194 | 179 | 373 | 60 | 234 | 47 | 8 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 488 | 438 | 88 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 159 | 3 | 26 | 2 | 201 | 266 | 311 | 577 | 110 | 277 | 33 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 535 | 479 | 82 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 194 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 171 | 257 | 303 | 559 | 132 | 251 | 36 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 136 | 116 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 51 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 181 | 286 | 284 | 570 | 103 | 272 | 38 | 12 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 268 | 246 | 42 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 76 | 3 | 11 | 3 | 171 | 227 | 240 | 467 | 69 | 224 | 28 | 6 | 207 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | A+ MLE | Tri-City Dust Devils | — | 137 | 125 | 22 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 176 | 231 | 336 | 567 | 160 | 204 | 27 | 7 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 261 | 239 | 46 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 62 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 192 | 246 | 301 | 547 | 109 | 235 | 24 | 6 | 240 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | A+ MLE | Vancouver Canadians | — | 72 | 67 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 284 | 314 | 418 | 732 | 134 | 316 | 17 | 4 | 322 | 104 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 165 | 151 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 78 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 119 | 194 | 179 | 373 | 60 | 236 | 47 | 8 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL Angels | — | 165 | 144 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 54 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 201 | 303 | 306 | 609 | 104 | 315 | 33 | 12 | 282 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 488 | 438 | 88 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 159 | 3 | 26 | 2 | 201 | 266 | 311 | 577 | 110 | 289 | 33 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A RAW | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 488 | 424 | 106 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 50 | 116 | 3 | 26 | 2 | 250 | 333 | 387 | 720 | 137 | 317 | 24 | 10 | 317 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 535 | 479 | 82 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 194 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 171 | 257 | 303 | 559 | 132 | 254 | 36 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | AA RAW | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 535 | 458 | 89 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 70 | 164 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 194 | 309 | 345 | 654 | 151 | 265 | 31 | 13 | 300 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 136 | 116 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 51 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 181 | 286 | 284 | 570 | 103 | 290 | 38 | 12 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA RAW | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 136 | 110 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 23 | 41 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 209 | 346 | 345 | 691 | 136 | 292 | 30 | 17 | 314 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 405 | 371 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 113 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 175 | 231 | 275 | 506 | 100 | 226 | 28 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 405 | 360 | 74 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 35 | 91 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 206 | 281 | 328 | 609 | 122 | 245 | 22 | 9 | 273 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 333 | 306 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 74 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 219 | 267 | 343 | 610 | 124 | 264 | 22 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 333 | 297 | 74 | 17 | 1 | 8 | 28 | 60 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 249 | 316 | 394 | 710 | 145 | 286 | 18 | 8 | 312 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL Angels | — | 165 | 150 | 18 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 78 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 120 | 194 | 180 | 374 | 60 | 234 | 47 | 8 | 170 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 19 | A MLE | Inland Empire 66ers | — | 488 | 446 | 88 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 36 | 159 | 3 | 26 | 2 | 197 | 266 | 305 | 571 | 108 | 277 | 33 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 20 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 535 | 475 | 82 | 18 | 3 | 13 | 49 | 194 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 173 | 257 | 305 | 562 | 133 | 251 | 36 | 9 | 247 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 136 | 118 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 51 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 178 | 286 | 280 | 565 | 102 | 272 | 38 | 12 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 405 | 375 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 113 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 173 | 231 | 272 | 503 | 99 | 217 | 28 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 333 | 310 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 74 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 216 | 267 | 339 | 606 | 123 | 253 | 22 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 21 | AA MLE | Rocket City Trash Pandas | — | 136 | 118 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 51 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 178 | 286 | 280 | 565 | 102 | 272 | 38 | 12 | 256 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 405 | 375 | 65 | 11 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 113 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 173 | 231 | 272 | 503 | 99 | 217 | 28 | 6 | 220 | 35 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 23 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 333 | 310 | 67 | 15 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 74 | 1 | 14 | 2 | 216 | 267 | 339 | 606 | 123 | 253 | 22 | 6 | 258 | 61 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAA | 2% | 380 | 351 | 73 | 15 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 94 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 206 | 261 | 319 | 579 | 113 | 256 | 25 | 6 | 260 | 62 | -17 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAA | 2% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 205 | 259 | 317 | 576 | 112 | 254 | 25 | 0 | 259 | 62 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAA | 31% | 236 | 218 | 46 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 58 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 209 | 265 | 325 | 590 | 117 | 258 | 25 | 6 | 265 | 65 | -10 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.6 |
| 2028 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAA | 31% | 73 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 207 | 263 | 324 | 587 | 116 | 256 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 65 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 73 | 68 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 206 | 260 | 338 | 599 | 132 | 250 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 51 | -3 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 605 | 125 | 27 | 0 | 18 | 45 | 160 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 207 | 262 | 340 | 602 | 134 | 251 | 25 | 7 | 263 | 51 | -27 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.5 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2503 | 2268 | 426 | 86 | 14 | 47 | 186 | 778 | 16 | 86 | 24 | 188 | 254 | 300 | 555 | 112 | 260 | 31 | 7 | 244 | 51 | -19 | +1 | +0 | -3 | +10 | -1.1 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 110 | 22 | 4 | 12 | 48 | 202 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 187 | 252 | 299 | 551 | 112 | 259 | 31 | 7 | 244 | 51 | -28 | +1 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -1.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 261 PAwOBA .283 → .240 (−42)K% 19.5% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.54% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.20% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.012 | 6.33% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.38% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.012 | 0.33% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 16.25% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.22% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 6.53% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.880 | ×0.982 | ×1.012 | 0.49% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.78% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 2.25% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .283 → .240; ISO .130 → .112; BABIP .260 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 A+Vancouver Canadians · 72 PAwOBA .387 → .322 (−64)K% 12.5% → 16.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 12.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 16.88% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.56% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.988 | 3.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×0.974 | ×0.988 | 24.59% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.02% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×0.974 | ×0.988 | 5.61% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×0.974 | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.988 | 4.32% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.974.
Result: wOBA .387 → .322; ISO .197 → .160; BABIP .370 → .316. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 268 PAwOBA .250 → .207 (−43)K% 23.5% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.51% | ÷1.011 | ×1.220 | — | — | 28.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.21% | ÷1.020 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 5.62% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.97% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.59% | ÷1.048 | ×0.920 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 19.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.84% | ÷0.929 | ×0.910 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 2.81% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.028 | ×0.880 | ×0.982 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.84% | ÷1.028 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 2.27% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 106, 1B 110, 2B 86, 3B 106, K 102, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.982.
Result: wOBA .250 → .207; ISO .084 → .070; BABIP .251 → .224. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Tri-City Dust Devils · 137 PAwOBA .302 → .246 (−56)K% 20.4% → 27.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.44% | ÷1.019 | ×1.350 | — | — | 27.07% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.49% | ÷0.975 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.998 | 6.90% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 13.98% | ÷1.019 | ×0.910 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 12.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.53% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 6.43% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷0.900 | ×0.820 | ×1.005 | ×0.998 | 0.98% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.38% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.998 | 4.45% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 104, 2B 95, 3B 80, K 104, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.005.
Result: wOBA .302 → .246; ISO .198 → .163; BABIP .233 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 136 PAwOBA .307 → .256 (−51)K% 30.1% → 37.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.15% | ÷0.974 | ×1.220 | — | — | 37.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.91% | ÷0.966 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.042 | 12.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.19% | ÷1.016 | ×0.920 | ×1.006 | ×1.042 | 22.02% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.072 | ×0.910 | ×1.006 | ×1.042 | 3.87% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.045 | ×0.880 | ×1.006 | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.80% | ÷0.976 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 4.95% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 95, 1B 103, 2B 114, 3B 109, K 95, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.006.
Result: wOBA .307 → .256; ISO .136 → .115; BABIP .292 → .272. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AARocket City Trash Pandas · 535 PAwOBA .292 → .247 (−46)K% 30.7% → 36.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 30.65% | ÷1.032 | ×1.220 | — | — | 36.25% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.08% | ÷1.017 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.050 | 9.18% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.12% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.050 | 0.99% |
| Singles /BIP | 18.03% | ÷0.985 | ×0.920 | ×0.953 | ×1.050 | 16.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.12% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×0.953 | ×1.050 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.953 | ×1.050 | 1.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.10% | ÷0.970 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.050 | 4.42% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 94, 1B 97, 2B 82, 3B 80, K 106, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 24.8 → +5.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.953.
Result: wOBA .292 → .247; ISO .151 → .134; BABIP .265 → .251. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AInland Empire 66ers · 488 PAwOBA .317 → .255 (−62)K% 23.8% → 32.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.77% | ÷0.991 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.62% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.25% | ÷0.995 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.49% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.40% | ÷1.049 | ×0.920 | ×0.985 | ×1.030 | 19.94% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.47% | ÷1.023 | ×0.830 | ×0.985 | ×1.030 | 6.15% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.27% | ÷1.006 | ×0.910 | ×0.985 | ×1.030 | 2.09% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.27% | ÷0.889 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 2.11% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 78, 1B 110, 2B 105, 3B 101, K 98, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.985.
Result: wOBA .317 → .255; ISO .137 → .114; BABIP .317 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 ROKACL Angels · 165 PAwOBA .276 → .170 (−106)K% 32.7% → 47.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 32.73% | ÷1.003 | ×1.440 | — | — | 46.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.12% | ÷0.952 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 7.96% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.61% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.44% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.987 | ×0.820 | ×0.958 | ×1.008 | 16.03% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.89% | ÷1.081 | ×0.720 | ×0.958 | ×1.008 | 5.71% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.22% | ÷1.024 | ×0.720 | ×0.958 | ×1.008 | 1.51% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.179 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.74% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 136, 1B 97, 2B 116, 3B 105, K 101, BB 90 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .276 → .170; ISO .104 → .056; BABIP .315 → .234. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).