Connor Scott
LF Northwest Arkansas Naturals| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24 | AAMIL | 241 | .213/.272/.335 | 4 | 0 | 30 | — | .177/.222/.274 |
| 2025 | 25 | AANorthwest Ark… | 30 | .333/.379/.407 | 0 | 0 | 91 | — | .286/.310/.357 |
| 2026 | 26 | AANorthwest Ark… | 353 | .231/.287/.393 | 11 | 9 | 41 | — | .185/.230/.307 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 27 | MLBKC | 2 | .196/.242/.306 | 0 | 0 | 54 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 28 | MLBKC | 38 | .196/.243/.306 | 1 | 1 | 55 | -0.2 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 44
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | A | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 89 | 76 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 211 | 302 | 276 | 579 | 66 | 300 | 30 | 11 | 263 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK | GCL Marlins | — | 119 | 103 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 29 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 223 | 322 | 311 | 633 | 87 | 307 | 24 | 12 | 290 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 111 | 98 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 235 | 312 | 327 | 638 | 92 | 301 | 23 | 10 | 287 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A | Clinton LumberKings | — | 413 | 378 | 95 | 24 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 91 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 251 | 311 | 368 | 678 | 116 | 322 | 22 | 8 | 304 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ | Beloit Snappers | — | 435 | 395 | 109 | 25 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 92 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 276 | 333 | 446 | 778 | 170 | 336 | 21 | 7 | 342 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 424 | 380 | 94 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 92 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 247 | 308 | 389 | 697 | 142 | 305 | 22 | 8 | 307 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA | Altoona Curve | — | 289 | 260 | 51 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 65 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 196 | 267 | 315 | 582 | 119 | 245 | 22 | 9 | 260 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 241 | 221 | 47 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 62 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 213 | 272 | 335 | 607 | 122 | 274 | 26 | 7 | 272 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 30 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 379 | 407 | 787 | 74 | 360 | 10 | 7 | 343 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 353 | 321 | 74 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 100 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 231 | 287 | 393 | 680 | 162 | 297 | 28 | 7 | 298 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 18 | A MLE | Greensboro Grasshoppers | — | 89 | 79 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 190 | 256 | 253 | 509 | 63 | 308 | 42 | 8 | 221 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | GCL Marlins | — | 119 | 108 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 42 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 167 | 237 | 231 | 469 | 65 | 252 | 35 | 8 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A+ MLE | Jupiter Hammerheads | — | 111 | 100 | 20 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 37 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 200 | 266 | 290 | 556 | 90 | 269 | 33 | 8 | 235 | 45 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | Clinton LumberKings | — | 413 | 388 | 77 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 121 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 198 | 245 | 289 | 534 | 90 | 278 | 29 | 5 | 232 | 43 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 435 | 408 | 91 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 121 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 223 | 268 | 350 | 618 | 127 | 295 | 28 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 424 | 393 | 86 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 115 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 219 | 267 | 331 | 598 | 112 | 288 | 27 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 289 | 268 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 79 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 160 | 211 | 250 | 461 | 90 | 210 | 27 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 241 | 226 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 177 | 222 | 274 | 496 | 97 | 243 | 32 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 30 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 310 | 357 | 667 | 71 | 314 | 13 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 353 | 329 | 61 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 122 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 185 | 230 | 307 | 537 | 122 | 252 | 35 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 208 | 187 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 79 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 171 | 240 | 230 | 470 | 59 | 282 | 38 | 8 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 208 | 179 | 39 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 56 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 218 | 314 | 296 | 610 | 78 | 304 | 27 | 12 | 278 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 524 | 488 | 95 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 158 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 195 | 246 | 281 | 526 | 86 | 277 | 30 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 524 | 476 | 118 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 42 | 117 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 248 | 311 | 359 | 670 | 111 | 317 | 22 | 8 | 301 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 435 | 408 | 91 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 121 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 223 | 268 | 350 | 618 | 127 | 298 | 28 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ RAW | Beloit Snappers | — | 435 | 395 | 109 | 25 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 92 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 276 | 333 | 446 | 778 | 170 | 336 | 21 | 7 | 342 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 424 | 393 | 86 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 115 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 219 | 267 | 331 | 598 | 112 | 292 | 27 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA RAW | Altoona Curve | — | 424 | 380 | 94 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 92 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 247 | 308 | 389 | 697 | 142 | 305 | 22 | 8 | 307 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 289 | 268 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 79 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 160 | 211 | 250 | 461 | 90 | 215 | 27 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA RAW | Altoona Curve | — | 289 | 260 | 51 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 65 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 196 | 267 | 315 | 582 | 119 | 245 | 22 | 9 | 260 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 241 | 226 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 177 | 222 | 274 | 496 | 97 | 248 | 32 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA RAW | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 241 | 221 | 47 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 62 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 213 | 272 | 335 | 607 | 122 | 274 | 26 | 7 | 272 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 30 | 28 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 286 | 310 | 357 | 667 | 71 | 320 | 13 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA RAW | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 30 | 27 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 333 | 379 | 407 | 787 | 74 | 360 | 10 | 7 | 343 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 353 | 329 | 61 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 122 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 185 | 230 | 307 | 537 | 122 | 264 | 35 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA RAW | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 353 | 321 | 74 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 100 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 231 | 287 | 393 | 680 | 162 | 297 | 28 | 7 | 298 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 18 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 208 | 189 | 32 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 79 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 169 | 240 | 228 | 468 | 58 | 276 | 38 | 8 | 211 | 29 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 19 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 524 | 486 | 95 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 158 | 2 | 23 | 10 | 195 | 246 | 282 | 528 | 86 | 276 | 30 | 6 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 21 | A+ MLE | Beloit Snappers | — | 435 | 407 | 91 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 121 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 224 | 268 | 351 | 619 | 128 | 295 | 28 | 5 | 270 | 69 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 22 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 424 | 395 | 86 | 23 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 115 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 218 | 267 | 329 | 596 | 111 | 288 | 27 | 6 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 23 | AA MLE | Altoona Curve | — | 289 | 270 | 43 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 79 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 159 | 211 | 248 | 459 | 89 | 210 | 27 | 6 | 204 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 241 | 226 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 177 | 222 | 274 | 496 | 97 | 243 | 32 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 30 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 310 | 345 | 655 | 69 | 314 | 13 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 353 | 331 | 61 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 122 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 184 | 230 | 305 | 535 | 121 | 252 | 35 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 24 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 241 | 226 | 40 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 76 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 177 | 222 | 274 | 496 | 97 | 243 | 32 | 5 | 213 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 30 | 29 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 276 | 310 | 345 | 655 | 69 | 314 | 13 | 3 | 302 | 91 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 26 | AA MLE | Northwest Arkansas Naturals | — | 353 | 331 | 61 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 122 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 184 | 230 | 305 | 535 | 121 | 252 | 35 | 5 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB MLE | KC | 2% | 293 | 274 | 54 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 15 | 88 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 198 | 244 | 313 | 557 | 115 | 265 | 30 | 5 | 249 | 54 | -16 | +0 | +0 | -3 | +6 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB CTX | KC | 2% | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 196 | 242 | 306 | 548 | 110 | 263 | 50 | 0 | 245 | 54 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 28 | MLB MLE | KC | 27% | 143 | 134 | 27 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 43 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 198 | 246 | 312 | 558 | 114 | 265 | 30 | 5 | 250 | 55 | -8 | +0 | -1 | -2 | +3 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB CTX | KC | 27% | 38 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 196 | 243 | 306 | 549 | 110 | 263 | 29 | 5 | 246 | 55 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 38 | 36 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 194 | 237 | 306 | 542 | 111 | 250 | 29 | 5 | 246 | 48 | -2 | +0 | -0 | -0 | +1 | -0.2 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 616 | 120 | 17 | 0 | 17 | 34 | 188 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 195 | 237 | 305 | 542 | 110 | 251 | 29 | 5 | 246 | 48 | -35 | +3 | -3 | -7 | +14 | -2.8 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2770 | 2576 | 506 | 113 | 24 | 35 | 151 | 834 | 15 | 81 | 42 | 196 | 245 | 300 | 545 | 103 | 272 | 30 | 5 | 239 | 48 | -14 | +0 | -1 | -3 | +6 | -1.2 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 604 | 119 | 27 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 196 | 4 | 19 | 10 | 197 | 245 | 301 | 547 | 104 | 274 | 30 | 5 | 239 | 48 | -35 | +1 | -2 | -7 | +14 | -2.9 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 353 PAwOBA .291 → .229 (−62)K% 28.3% → 34.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 28.33% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.56% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.978 | 4.65% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.57% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.978 | 0.48% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 18.56% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 4.69% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | ×0.970 | ×0.978 | 1.21% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.98% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 3.89% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.970.
Result: wOBA .291 → .229; ISO .162 → .125; BABIP .297 → .252. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AANorthwest Arkansas Naturals · 30 PAwOBA .346 → .302 (−44)K% 10.0% → 11.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.022 | ×1.220 | — | — | 11.94% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.67% | ÷1.059 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.988 | 4.35% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.17% | ÷1.034 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 25.64% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.33% | ÷0.984 | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 7.03% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.940 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.077 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 115, 1B 107, 2B 97, 3B 80, K 104, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .346 → .302; ISO .074 → .065; BABIP .360 → .314. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AABiloxi Shuckers · 241 PAwOBA .267 → .213 (−54)K% 25.7% → 31.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.73% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 31.57% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 6.64% | ÷0.989 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.998 | 4.55% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.83% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.998 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.61% | ÷0.972 | ×0.920 | ×0.952 | ×0.998 | 15.82% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.43% | ÷0.971 | ×0.910 | ×0.952 | ×0.998 | 8.40% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.900 | ×0.880 | ×0.952 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.52% | ÷1.198 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.998 | 1.68% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 140, 1B 94, 2B 94, 3B 80, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 24.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.952.
Result: wOBA .267 → .213; ISO .122 → .093; BABIP .274 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AAAltoona Curve · 289 PAwOBA .257 → .204 (−53)K% 22.5% → 27.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.49% | ÷1.003 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.37% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.65% | ÷1.058 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.012 | 5.79% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.012 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.38% | ÷1.032 | ×0.970 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 13.90% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.18% | ÷1.142 | ×0.860 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 5.20% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.05% | ÷0.900 | ×0.950 | ×0.950 | ×1.012 | 2.08% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.54% | ÷1.106 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.012 | 1.10% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 121, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 80, K 101, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .257 → .204; ISO .119 → .094; BABIP .245 → .210. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AAAltoona Curve · 424 PAwOBA .302 → .262 (−40)K% 21.7% → 27.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.70% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 27.16% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.78% | ÷1.006 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.027 | 5.56% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.47% | — | ×0.850 | — | ×1.027 | 0.41% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.14% | ÷1.010 | ×0.970 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 19.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.68% | ÷0.928 | ×0.860 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 8.10% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.150 | ×0.950 | ×0.981 | ×1.027 | 1.16% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.43% | ÷1.084 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.027 | 1.80% |
Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 102, 2B 86, 3B 130, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.981.
Result: wOBA .302 → .262; ISO .142 → .118; BABIP .305 → .288. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2021 A+Beloit Snappers · 435 PAwOBA .334 → .270 (−64)K% 21.1% → 27.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.15% | ÷1.025 | ×1.350 | — | — | 27.86% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.13% | ÷1.054 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 4.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.012 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.44% | ÷1.049 | ×0.910 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 19.95% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.25% | ÷0.955 | ×0.830 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 7.34% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.98% | ÷0.977 | ×0.820 | ×1.012 | ×1.012 | 1.70% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.30% | ÷1.082 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.012 | 2.56% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 110, 2B 91, 3B 95, K 105, BB 111 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.012.
Result: wOBA .334 → .270; ISO .170 → .135; BABIP .336 → .295. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 AClinton LumberKings · 413 PAwOBA .296 → .232 (−63)K% 22.0% → 29.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.03% | ÷1.019 | ×1.360 | — | — | 29.41% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.26% | ÷0.972 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 5.31% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.39% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.95% | ÷1.019 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 19.39% |
| Doubles /BIP | 8.36% | ÷1.007 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 6.74% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.936 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.030 | 1.33% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.085 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 1.06% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 117, 1B 104, 2B 101, 3B 87, K 104, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .296 → .232; ISO .116 → .089; BABIP .322 → .278. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Jupiter Hammerheads · 111 PAwOBA .285 → .235 (−51)K% 23.4% → 33.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.42% | ÷1.007 | ×1.420 | — | — | 33.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.91% | ÷0.998 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.042 | 7.76% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.930 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.61% | ÷1.045 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 20.58% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.56% | ÷0.931 | ×0.960 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.39% | ÷1.120 | ×0.810 | ×0.950 | ×1.042 | 0.99% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.39% | ÷0.803 | ×0.880 | — | ×1.042 | 1.59% |
Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 61, 1B 109, 2B 86, 3B 124, K 101, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .285 → .235; ISO .092 → .083; BABIP .301 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).