Parker Chavers
OF Sugar Land Space Cowboys| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 26 | AA/A+2 orgs | 343 | .236/.339/.321 | 4 | 26 | 50 | — | .197/.272/.261 |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA/AACHC | 349 | .215/.337/.297 | 1 | 16 | 55 | — | .194/.280/.268 |
| 2026 | 28 | AAAHOU | 42 | .075/.119/.075 | 0 | 0 | -66 | — | .049/.071/.049 |
| 2027PROJ10% MLB | 29 | MLBHOU | 10 | .176/.256/.239 | 0 | 0 | 41 | -0.1 | |
| 2028PROJ27% MLB | 30 | MLBHOU | 41 | .177/.256/.240 | 0 | 1 | 41 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 30
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 18 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 111 | 118 | 229 | 59 | 71 | 17 | 6 | 110 | -67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 136 | 127 | 31 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 244 | 284 | 394 | 677 | 150 | 309 | 24 | 4 | 296 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK | ACL Cubs | — | 17 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 267 | 312 | 267 | 579 | 333 | 24 | 6 | 254 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 22 | 21 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 238 | 273 | 238 | 511 | 333 | 27 | 5 | 237 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 25 | A | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 316 | 275 | 69 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 33 | 79 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 251 | 341 | 418 | 759 | 167 | 312 | 25 | 10 | 338 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA | Tennessee Smokies | — | 49 | 42 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 190 | 306 | 190 | 497 | 267 | 24 | 14 | 247 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ | South Bend Cubs | — | 294 | 254 | 62 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 38 | 57 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 244 | 345 | 343 | 687 | 98 | 299 | 19 | 13 | 316 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | — | 101 | 85 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 28 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 176 | 307 | 235 | 542 | 59 | 263 | 28 | 16 | 263 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA | Knoxville Smokies | — | 248 | 208 | 48 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 36 | 48 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 231 | 350 | 322 | 672 | 91 | 292 | 19 | 15 | 311 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 42 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 119 | 75 | 194 | 158 | 50 | 5 | 98 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 18 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 111 | 118 | 229 | 59 | 52 | 22 | 6 | 69 | -67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 136 | 129 | 27 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 209 | 239 | 341 | 580 | 132 | 289 | 34 | 2 | 239 | 48 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 17 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 200 | 250 | 200 | 450 | 262 | 35 | 6 | 190 | 15 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 25 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 22 | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 190 | 227 | 190 | 418 | 304 | 36 | 5 | 184 | 11 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2023 | 25 | A MLE | Myrtle Beach Pelicans | — | 316 | 286 | 53 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 106 | 5 | 21 | 5 | 185 | 258 | 301 | 559 | 115 | 258 | 34 | 7 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | AA MLE | Tennessee Smokies | — | 49 | 44 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 159 | 245 | 159 | 404 | 239 | 31 | 10 | 194 | 17 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | South Bend Cubs | — | 294 | 266 | 54 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 72 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 203 | 276 | 278 | 555 | 75 | 262 | 24 | 9 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AAA MLE | Iowa Cubs | — | 101 | 90 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 34 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 156 | 248 | 200 | 448 | 44 | 261 | 34 | 11 | 219 | 34 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | Knoxville Smokies | — | 248 | 220 | 46 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 59 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 209 | 293 | 295 | 588 | 86 | 270 | 24 | 10 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 42 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 71 | 49 | 120 | 146 | 60 | 2 | 70 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 18 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 111 | 118 | 229 | 59 | 77 | 22 | 6 | 69 | -67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK RAW | ACL Cubs | — | 18 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 111 | 118 | 229 | 59 | 71 | 17 | 6 | 110 | -67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 153 | 144 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 52 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 208 | 240 | 326 | 566 | 118 | 301 | 34 | 3 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 153 | 142 | 35 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 37 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 246 | 287 | 380 | 667 | 134 | 311 | 24 | 4 | 291 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 338 | 308 | 57 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 114 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 185 | 253 | 292 | 545 | 107 | 262 | 34 | 7 | 246 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A RAW | 2 teams | — | 338 | 296 | 74 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 34 | 85 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 250 | 336 | 405 | 742 | 155 | 313 | 25 | 10 | 332 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 343 | 311 | 61 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 87 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 196 | 269 | 260 | 529 | 64 | 261 | 25 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 343 | 296 | 70 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 45 | 69 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 236 | 339 | 321 | 660 | 84 | 295 | 20 | 13 | 306 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 349 | 310 | 61 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 93 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 197 | 282 | 274 | 557 | 77 | 275 | 27 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 349 | 293 | 63 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 52 | 76 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 215 | 337 | 297 | 634 | 82 | 284 | 22 | 15 | 297 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 42 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 71 | 49 | 120 | 125 | 60 | 2 | 70 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA RAW | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 42 | 40 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75 | 119 | 75 | 194 | 158 | 50 | 5 | 98 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2021 | 23 | ROK MLE | ACL Cubs | — | 18 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 59 | 111 | 118 | 229 | 59 | 52 | 22 | 6 | 69 | -67 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 24 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 153 | 146 | 30 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 52 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 205 | 240 | 322 | 562 | 116 | 286 | 34 | 3 | 234 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 25 | A MLE | 2 teams | — | 338 | 307 | 57 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 23 | 114 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 186 | 253 | 293 | 546 | 107 | 261 | 34 | 7 | 246 | 52 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 343 | 309 | 61 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 87 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 197 | 269 | 262 | 531 | 65 | 259 | 25 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 349 | 309 | 61 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 93 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 197 | 282 | 275 | 558 | 78 | 267 | 27 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 42 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 71 | 49 | 120 | 146 | 60 | 2 | 70 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 26 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 343 | 309 | 61 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 87 | 1 | 26 | 8 | 197 | 269 | 262 | 531 | 65 | 259 | 25 | 9 | 242 | 50 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 27 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 349 | 309 | 61 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 93 | 2 | 16 | 5 | 197 | 282 | 275 | 558 | 78 | 267 | 27 | 10 | 249 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 28 | AAA MLE | Sugar Land Space Cowboys | — | 42 | 41 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 49 | 71 | 49 | 120 | 146 | 60 | 2 | 70 | -66 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB MLE | HOU | 10% | 200 | 179 | 32 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 57 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 173 | 254 | 235 | 488 | 61 | 246 | 28 | 9 | 229 | 41 | -14 | +0 | +0 | -1 | +4 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB CTX | HOU | 10% | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 176 | 256 | 239 | 496 | 63 | 250 | 30 | 10 | 232 | 41 | -1 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 30 | MLB MLE | HOU | 27% | 151 | 135 | 24 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 43 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 174 | 253 | 236 | 489 | 62 | 247 | 28 | 9 | 229 | 41 | -11 | +0 | -2 | -1 | +3 | -1.0 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB CTX | HOU | 27% | 41 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 177 | 256 | 240 | 496 | 64 | 251 | 29 | 10 | 232 | 41 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +1 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 41 | 37 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 162 | 244 | 189 | 433 | 27 | 240 | 29 | 10 | 232 | 45 | -3 | +0 | -1 | -0 | +1 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 587 | 95 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 190 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 162 | 243 | 189 | 432 | 27 | 239 | 29 | 10 | 232 | 45 | -46 | +3 | -9 | -4 | +14 | -4.2 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1499 | 1359 | 252 | 45 | 10 | 15 | 118 | 448 | 12 | 79 | 22 | 185 | 257 | 266 | 523 | 81 | 262 | 30 | 8 | 234 | 45 | -18 | +1 | -2 | -2 | +6 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 110 | 20 | 4 | 7 | 51 | 194 | 5 | 34 | 10 | 187 | 257 | 270 | 527 | 83 | 263 | 30 | 8 | 234 | 45 | -46 | +2 | -5 | -4 | +14 | -4.0 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 AAASugar Land Space Cowboys · 42 PAwOBA .096 → .070 (−26)K% 50.0% → 60.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 50.00% | ÷1.000 | ×1.200 | — | — | 60.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.992 | 3.26% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 15.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.930 | — | ×0.992 | 14.57% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.970 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.992 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 28 vs a level average of 27.2 → −0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .096 → .070; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .158 → .146. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAKnoxville Smokies · 248 PAwOBA .307 → .261 (−46)K% 19.4% → 23.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.35% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 23.76% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.52% | ÷0.988 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.978 | 9.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.81% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.978 | 0.66% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.62% | ÷0.996 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×0.978 | 18.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 7.50% | ÷0.910 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×0.978 | 7.41% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.25% | ÷1.150 | ×0.880 | ×1.009 | ×0.978 | 0.94% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.62% | ÷0.911 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.54% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 99, 2B 82, 3B 130, K 99, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 24.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .307 → .261; ISO .091 → .086; BABIP .292 → .270. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AAAIowa Cubs · 101 PAwOBA .258 → .219 (−39)K% 27.7% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.72% | ÷0.989 | ×1.200 | — | — | 33.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.84% | ÷1.005 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.003 | 10.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.940 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.30% | ÷0.949 | ×0.930 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 19.74% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.26% | ÷1.033 | ×0.830 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 4.42% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.75% | ÷0.939 | ×0.970 | ×1.041 | ×1.003 | 1.89% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.125 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.003 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row International League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 125, 1B 90, 2B 107, 3B 88, K 98, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.041.
Result: wOBA .258 → .219; ISO .059 → .054; BABIP .263 → .261. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 A+South Bend Cubs · 294 PAwOBA .309 → .250 (−59)K% 19.4% → 24.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 19.39% | ÷1.005 | ×1.270 | — | — | 24.50% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 12.93% | ÷1.021 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.968 | 8.70% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.34% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.968 | 0.26% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.86% | ÷1.009 | ×0.920 | ×1.021 | ×0.968 | 21.52% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.57% | ÷1.034 | ×0.810 | ×1.021 | ×0.968 | 3.54% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷0.979 | ×0.850 | ×1.021 | ×0.968 | 0.87% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.03% | ÷0.909 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.968 | 1.73% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 82, 1B 102, 2B 107, 3B 96, K 101, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 22.8 → −3.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.021.
Result: wOBA .309 → .250; ISO .098 → .081; BABIP .299 → .262. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 AATennessee Smokies · 49 PAwOBA .242 → .194 (−48)K% 24.5% → 30.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.49% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 30.65% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.29% | ÷0.959 | ×0.680 | — | ×0.988 | 10.01% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.67% | ÷1.015 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.988 | 23.89% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.059 | ×0.910 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.985 | ×0.880 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.854 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.988 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 71, 1B 103, 2B 112, 3B 97, K 95, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 24.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .242 → .194; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .267 → .239. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 316 PAwOBA .331 → .250 (−81)K% 25.0% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.00% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.44% | ÷0.967 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.970 | 7.23% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.58% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.970 | 1.20% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.98% | ÷1.046 | ×0.920 | ×0.991 | ×0.970 | 20.27% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.59% | ÷0.975 | ×0.830 | ×0.991 | ×0.970 | 3.76% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.02% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.991 | ×0.970 | 0.78% |
| Home runs /BIP | 5.61% | ÷0.957 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.970 | 4.55% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 109, 2B 95, 3B 130, K 102, BB 93 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.0 → −3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (3.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.991.
Result: wOBA .331 → .250; ISO .167 → .126; BABIP .312 → .258. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 A+South Bend Cubs · 22 PAwOBA .231 → .184 (−47)K% 27.3% → 35.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.966 | ×1.270 | — | — | 35.84% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.55% | ÷1.060 | ×0.710 | — | ×0.978 | 2.98% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.00% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Singles /BIP | 33.33% | ÷0.988 | ×0.920 | — | ×0.978 | 30.36% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.140 | ×0.810 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.197 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.978 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 139, 1B 98, 2B 128, 3B 130, K 93, BB 112 — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 22.8 → −2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .231 → .184; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .333 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 AMyrtle Beach Pelicans · 136 PAwOBA .292 → .239 (−53)K% 24.3% → 33.7%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.26% | ÷0.978 | ×1.360 | — | — | 33.73% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.68% | ÷1.017 | ×0.690 | — | ×0.980 | 2.44% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.47% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×0.980 | 1.12% |
| Singles /BIP | 19.15% | ÷0.975 | ×0.920 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 18.60% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.57% | ÷0.947 | ×0.830 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 8.63% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.13% | ÷1.068 | ×0.910 | ×1.050 | ×0.980 | 1.86% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.13% | ÷0.942 | ×0.800 | — | ×0.980 | 1.77% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 95, 2B 89, 3B 114, K 96, BB 103 — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.0 → −2.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .292 → .239; ISO .150 → .119; BABIP .309 → .289. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).