Collin Burns — OGILVIE

Collin BurnsSS Bowie Baysox

Age 26 L/R 5'11" / 187 lbs AA HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†45

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .254 / .278

PA250

HR2

SB6

K%26

BB%6

ISO80

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	96	85	23	3	0	0	6	21	3	4	3	271	340	306	646	35	348	22	6	290	80	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A	2 teams	—	96	82	25	4	0	0	9	16	3	4	3	305	394	354	747	49	368	17	9	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	344	318	77	18	0	4	18	78	6	13	3	242	295	336	632	94	307	23	5	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	344	309	83	20	0	6	27	57	6	13	3	269	339	392	731	123	310	17	8	328	110	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	3 teams	—	174	156	26	2	2	1	12	53	4	13	0	167	244	224	469	58	243	30	7	216	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	3 teams	—	174	150	31	3	2	1	18	38	4	13	0	207	308	273	581	67	268	22	10	272	66	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	371	340	61	9	2	3	19	111	7	15	5	179	238	244	482	65	254	30	5	213	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	371	330	72	12	3	5	29	81	7	15	5	218	295	318	613	100	272	22	8	278	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	26	MLB	BAL	—	250	231	46	9	1	2	14	66	3	6	2	199	254	273	527	74	267	26	6	244	45	-15	+0	+0	+3	+7	-0.5
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	27	MLB	BAL	27%	269	247	50	10	1	3	16	70	4	6	2	202	262	287	550	85	270	26	6	253	51	-15	+0	+0	+3	+8	-0.4
2028	28	MLB	BAL	40%	319	292	61	12	2	4	20	83	4	7	2	209	269	305	574	96	271	26	6	257	55	-16	+1	-1	+3	+9	-0.4
2027	27	MLB	BAL	27%	72	67	14	3	0	1	4	19	1	2	0	209	264	299	562	90	274	26	6	246	47	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	28	MLB	BAL	40%	127	116	25	5	1	2	8	33	2	3	1	216	278	328	605	112	275	26	6	251	50	-7	+0	-0	+1	+4	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	199	183	39	8	1	3	12	52	3	5	1	213	273	317	590	104	279	26	6	249	49	-11	+1	-0	+2	+6	-0.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	598	127	26	3	10	39	170	10	16	3	212	272	316	588	104	278	26	6	249	49	-38	+2	-1	+7	+18	-1.1
Career	—			—	1823	1669	344	63	8	17	105	482	31	64	17	206	266	284	550	78	277	26	6	248	48	-106	+6	-1	+20	+52	-3.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	595	122	22	3	6	37	172	11	23	6	205	264	282	546	77	276	26	6	248	48	-38	+2	-0	+7	+18	-1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	80	68	19	2	0	0	8	15	2	4	2	279	372	309	681	29	345	19	10	313	97	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2021	21	ROK	FCL Orioles Orange	—	16	14	6	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	429	500	571	1.071	143	462	6	6	476	223	+2	-0	—	—	+0	0.2
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	344	309	83	20	0	6	27	57	6	13	3	269	339	392	731	123	310	17	8	328	110	+4	+1	—	—	+10	1.5
2023	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	38	34	7	1	0	0	3	8	0	3	0	206	270	235	506	29	269	21	8	232	36	-3	+1	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	23	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	95	83	22	2	2	1	10	20	2	7	0	265	358	373	731	108	339	21	11	334	114	+1	+1	—	—	+3	0.6
2023	23	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	41	33	2	0	0	0	5	10	2	3	0	61	225	61	286		83	24	12	165	-15	-5	+1	—	—	+1	-0.4
2024	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	371	330	72	12	3	5	29	81	7	15	5	218	295	318	613	100	272	22	8	278	71	-12	+1	—	—	+11	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Chad Moellerlast yr '09 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,524 PA	10	1,524	29	2	226	288	351	+19	+14	3.8	4.3
	/162	664	13	1	226	288	351	+8.5	+6.2	1.6	pk7: 5
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	204	2	5	206	264	297	+2	+3	-0.3	-0.1
	/162	664	8	15	206	264	297	+7.1	+9.7	-0.9	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Collin Burns (OGILVIE)	26	35	33	55	40	198/254/278	79	267	2	6	26%	6%	45	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Kevin Merrell 2022 · AAA	26	39→35	40	54→55	39	192/243/281	89	271	8	17	31%	6%	40	-2.4	229/282/370	141	281	18	11	25%	6%	81	+0.4	236/283/396	160	253	27	6	20%	6%	87	+0.2
✕Daniel Lockhart 2019 · AA	26	39→41	41→45	52→50	41	193/243/291	98	256	8	10	27%	6%	43	-2.2	206/259/316	110	274	11	9	28%	6%	57	-1.2	186/239/291	105	236	12	5	26%	5%	40	-1.1
✕Ian Parmley 2016 · AA	26	43	35→30	50	46	202/263/254	52	276	3	13	26%	8%	42	-2.3	227/268/291	64	330	3	15	30%	5%	53	-1.5	239/273/297	58	348	2	17	31%	4%	52	-0.6
✕Wes Darvill 2018 · AA	26	41→38	41→40	49→45	45	202/263/298	95	262	9	10	26%	7%	53	-1.5	205/253/295	90	296	8	7	32%	6%	49	-1.8	169/209/221	52	247	5	0	33%	5%	7	-1.3
✕Danny Black 2015 · AAA	26	43→49	37→40	53→55	45	204/266/278	74	281	4	12	28%	8%	50	-1.8	210/276/302	92	298	6	11	29%	8%	60	-1.0	192/270/263	71	294	0	8	31%	10%	43	-0.4
✕Evan Marzilli 2017 · AAA	26	41→46	37→40	49→50	46	191/270/267	77	281	3	14	31%	9%	50	-1.8	197/277/282	85	296	6	13	32%	9%	56	-1.3	199/280/283	84	289	7	14	31%	10%	55	-0.8
✕Keith Curcio 2019 · AA	26	42→47	39→40	51→50	47	203/258/290	87	245	5	12	19%	6%	49	-1.8	210/257/302	92	280	6	12	26%	6%	51	-1.7	204/246/286	82	273	4	12	26%	5%	41	-1.5
✕Chad Oberacker 2015 · AA	26	40→49	41→45	55→50	41	197/244/302	105	256	8	14	26%	6%	46	-2.0	216/266/308	92	287	7	15	26%	6%	57	-1.2	223/274/308	85	295	6	18	25%	6%	58	-0.5
✕Chris Rabago 2019 · AA	26	42	38→40	54→55	43	199/256/282	83	271	4	18	27%	6%	46	-2.0	189/251/275	86	266	7	14	30%	7%	43	-2.2	157/227/221	64	233	6	11	33%	7%	17	-1.3
✕Mickey McDonald 2021 · AA	26	43→48	35→30	51→50	41	201/258/258	57	297	2	14	31%	7%	40	-2.4	222/293/300	78	311	5	17	28%	8%	67	-0.5	224/301/296	72	312	4	19	27%	8%	66	-0.4
✕Jesus Loya 2019 · AAA	27	42	40	51→50	37	208/247/291	84	284	8	13	29%	4%	44	-2.1	211/245/310	99	280	10	7	28%	4%	49	-1.8	194/219/267	73	255	8	0	27%	2%	26	-1.5
✕Julian Escobedo 2023 · AA	25	37→34	41→40	48→50	40	186/251/287	100	259	9	14	31%	6%	46	-2.0	205/270/324	119	291	11	14	32%	7%	64	-0.8	182/254/327	145	270	14	20	36%	6%	54	-0.3
✕River Stevens 2018 · AA	26	44→42	40→45	46→45	42	215/256/302	87	262	7	9	21%	5%	51	-1.7	223/276/337	114	263	12	10	20%	6%	69	-0.4	221/278/346	125	235	20	13	16%	6%	68	-0.1
✕Jacob Hannemann 2016 · AA	25	42→41	40→45	57→60	38	202/248/295	93	289	6	19	31%	5%	46	-2.0	204/255/314	110	273	9	25	28%	5%	55	-1.4	195/247/304	109	252	10	31	26%	5%	46	-1.4
✕Vance Vizcaino 2021 · AA	26	42	40	55	38	205/255/298	93	300	8	24	33%	6%	50	-1.8	219/277/326	107	312	11	15	31%	6%	67	-0.5	205/263/288	83	291	11	13	32%	5%	48	-0.5
✕Rashad Crawford 2019 · AAA	25	41→44	39→40	51→55	40	200/252/287	87	282	6	15	30%	6%	46	-2.0	212/262/299	87	310	8	17	32%	6%	53	-1.5	208/256/280	72	305	9	21	33%	6%	42	-1.7
✕Ryan Walker 2018 · AA	26	46→50	36→40	52→50	46	217/281/287	70	293	3	13	26%	8%	58	-1.2	211/274/303	92	274	9	11	25%	7%	59	-1.1	180/239/253	73	220	11	9	23%	6%	29	-1.1
✕Jason Christian 2012 · AA	25	43	40	54→55	38	208/251/296	88	297	7	16	32%	6%	47	-1.9	204/259/279	75	296	4	10	30%	6%	46	-2.0	187/256/216	29	259	0	5	25%	7%	27	-1.1
✕JJ Muno 2021 · A	27	42	39→40	52→60	41	199/274/287	88	291	7	16	32%	7%	56	-1.3	195/280/289	94	287	8	26	33%	7%	61	-1.0	176/270/260	84	263	8	35	33%	6%	46	-0.9
✕Ryan Dent 2015 · AAA	26	43→42	39→40	48→50	41	205/260/292	87	283	6	14	28%	6%	51	-1.7	205/259/297	92	293	7	8	31%	6%	52	-1.6	207/252/299	92	298	8	3	32%	5%	48	-1.0