Collin Burns — OGILVIE

Collin BurnsSS Bowie Baysox

Age 26 L/R 5'11" / 187 lbs AA HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 250 proj PA

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.204 / .260 / .287

PA20

HR0

K%25

BB%6

ISO83

MLB%2%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE40

scouting grade only

SPEED55

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	80	68	19	2	0	0	8	15	2	4	2	279	372	309	681	29	345	19	10	313	98	-0	+0	—	—	+2	0.2
2021	21	ROK	FCL Orioles Orange	—	16	14	6	2	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	429	500	571	1.071	143	462	6	6	476	208	+2	-0	—	—	+0	0.2
2022	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	344	309	83	20	0	6	27	57	6	13	3	269	339	392	731	123	310	17	8	328	108	+3	+1	—	—	+7	1.3
2023	23	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	38	34	7	1	0	0	3	8	0	3	0	206	270	235	506	29	269	21	8	232	43	-3	+1	—	—	+1	-0.1
2023	23	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	95	83	22	2	2	1	10	20	2	7	0	265	358	373	731	108	339	21	11	334	112	+1	+1	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	23	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	41	33	2	0	0	0	5	10	2	3	0	61	225	61	286		83	24	12	165	-2	-5	+1	—	—	+1	-0.4
2024	24	AA	Bowie Baysox	—	371	330	72	12	3	5	29	81	7	15	5	218	295	318	613	100	272	22	8	278	74	-11	+1	—	—	+8	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	80	71	18	2	0	0	5	20	2	4	2	254	321	282	602	28	324	25	6	271	70	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles Orange	—	16	14	4	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	1	286	375	357	732	71	363	6	6	357	128	+1	-0	—	—	+0	0.0
2022	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	344	318	78	18	0	5	18	77	6	13	3	245	298	349	647	104	298	22	5	278	74	-11	+1	—	—	+7	-0.2
2023	23	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	38	35	7	1	0	0	2	10	0	3	0	200	243	229	472	29	257	26	5	201	22	-4	+1	—	—	+1	-0.2
2023	23	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	95	86	20	2	2	1	7	27	2	7	0	233	305	337	642	105	311	28	7	269	68	-4	+1	—	—	+2	-0.0
2023	23	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	41	35	2	0	0	0	3	15	2	3	0	57	175	57	232		67	37	7	110	-39	-7	+1	—	—	+1	-0.5
2024	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	371	340	64	10	2	3	19	102	7	15	5	188	246	256	502	68	251	27	5	225	38	-27	+1	—	—	+8	-1.9
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	96	85	23	3	0	0	6	21	3	4	3	271	340	306	646	35	348	22	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	96	82	25	4	0	0	9	16	3	4	3	305	394	354	747	49	368	17	9	340	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	344	318	78	18	0	5	18	77	6	13	3	245	298	349	647	104	307	22	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	344	309	83	20	0	6	27	57	6	13	3	269	339	392	731	123	310	17	8	328	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	174	156	27	2	2	1	12	52	4	13	0	173	250	231	481	58	250	30	7	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ RAW	3 teams	—	174	150	31	3	2	1	18	38	4	13	0	207	308	273	581	67	268	22	10	272	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	371	340	64	10	2	3	19	102	7	15	5	188	246	256	502	68	257	27	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA RAW	Bowie Baysox	—	371	330	72	12	3	5	29	81	7	15	5	218	295	318	613	100	272	22	8	278	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	96	87	23	3	0	0	6	21	3	4	3	264	340	299	639	34	331	22	6	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	344	317	78	18	0	5	18	77	6	13	3	246	298	350	648	104	298	22	5	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	174	156	27	2	2	1	12	52	4	13	0	173	250	231	481	58	242	30	7	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	371	342	64	10	2	3	19	102	7	15	5	187	246	254	500	67	251	27	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	23	A+ MLE	3 teams	—	174	156	27	2	2	1	12	52	4	13	0	173	250	231	481	58	242	30	7	217	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Bowie Baysox	—	371	342	64	10	2	3	19	102	7	15	5	187	246	254	500	67	251	27	5	225	38	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	26	MLB MLE	BAL	2%	20	19	4	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	211	250	263	513	53	270	25	5	251	56	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BAL	27%	269	247	52	10	2	3	16	67	4	6	2	211	270	304	573	93	272	25	6	258	61	-13	+0	+0	+3	+6	-0.3
2028	28	MLB MLE	BAL	40%	319	292	62	12	2	4	20	80	4	7	2	212	272	308	580	96	273	25	6	262	64	-14	+1	-1	+3	+7	-0.4
2027	27	MLB CTX	BAL	27%	72	67	14	3	0	1	4	18	1	2	0	209	264	299	562	90	276	25	6	252	61	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	28	MLB CTX	BAL	40%	127	116	26	5	1	2	8	32	2	3	1	224	286	336	622	112	277	25	6	257	64	-5	+0	-0	+1	+3	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	199	183	40	8	1	3	12	50	3	5	1	219	278	322	600	104	282	25	6	255	57	-9	+1	-0	+2	+4	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	598	130	26	3	10	39	163	10	16	3	217	277	321	598	104	280	25	6	255	57	-29	+2	-1	+7	+14	-0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	1593	1457	310	56	8	16	92	404	28	58	15	213	273	295	568	82	281	25	6	253	57	-27	+1	-1	+7	+13	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	595	127	23	3	7	38	165	11	24	6	213	273	297	571	84	281	25	6	253	57	-29	+1	-1	+7	+14	-0.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.3	204	3	5	212	269	305	+2	+3	-0.1	-0.0
/162	664	8	15	+7.1	+9.7	-0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Collin Burns (OGILVIE)	26	40	33	55	40	204/260/287	83	270	2	6	25%	6%	56	-0.8	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Danny Black 2015 · AAA	26	43→50	37→40	53→55	45	206/267/280	74	280	4	12	27%	8%	56	-1.9	211/277/302	91	294	6	11	28%	8%	65	-1.2	196/274/267	71	291	0	8	30%	10%	53	-0.4
✕Ian Parmley 2016 · AA	26	44	35→30	51→50	46	206/266/259	54	276	3	13	25%	8%	51	-2.3	232/274/296	64	328	3	15	28%	5%	61	-1.5	244/280/304	59	347	2	17	29%	4%	62	-0.6
✕Daniel Lockhart 2019 · AA	26	40	40	52→50	43	196/246/289	93	254	7	10	26%	6%	50	-2.3	207/260/307	100	271	9	9	26%	6%	60	-1.6	191/241/278	87	240	9	5	24%	5%	44	-1.3
✕Jax Biggers 2023 · AA	26	47→49	39→40	51→50	44	222/267/309	87	272	5	14	20%	5%	62	-1.4	213/288/306	93	285	8	14	26%	9%	70	-0.8	202/289/284	82	276	7	14	27%	10%	64	-0.9
✕Keith Curcio 2019 · AA	26	43→48	38→40	51→50	47	205/259/290	85	246	5	12	18%	6%	55	-1.9	214/260/305	91	281	6	12	25%	5%	59	-1.7	211/252/295	84	278	4	12	25%	5%	52	-1.4
✕Kevin Merrell 2022 · AAA	26	40→39	39→40	55	39	197/248/283	86	274	7	17	30%	6%	49	-2.4	226/280/355	129	277	16	11	24%	6%	78	-0.3	232/279/364	132	253	21	6	18%	6%	80	-0.0
✕Chad Oberacker 2015 · AA	26	41→51	41→45	55→50	42	202/248/307	105	256	7	14	24%	6%	55	-2.0	222/274/316	94	286	6	15	23%	6%	67	-1.1	234/287/323	90	300	5	18	23%	6%	72	-0.3
✕Evan Marzilli 2017 · AAA	26	43→47	37→40	49→50	46	199/277/277	78	286	3	14	29%	9%	59	-1.6	203/282/289	86	298	6	13	31%	9%	64	-1.3	205/285/291	86	289	6	14	29%	10%	64	-0.7
✕Ryan Walker 2018 · AA	26	48→52	36→40	52→50	46	222/284/292	70	294	3	13	24%	7%	65	-1.2	215/278/304	89	275	8	11	23%	7%	66	-1.1	192/254/257	65	232	9	9	21%	7%	42	-1.0
✕Chris Rabago 2019 · AA	26	42	38→40	54→55	44	203/258/288	85	268	4	18	25%	6%	55	-2.0	194/257/283	89	268	7	14	28%	7%	53	-2.1	167/238/233	66	244	6	11	32%	7%	33	-1.2
✕Jesus Loya 2019 · AAA	27	43	39→40	52→50	38	210/254/293	83	289	7	13	29%	5%	53	-2.1	218/257/322	104	285	11	7	27%	4%	61	-1.5	207/235/288	81	268	9	0	26%	3%	45	-1.2
✕Wes Darvill 2018 · AA	26	41→39	41→40	49→45	46	203/262/297	94	260	8	10	25%	7%	59	-1.7	207/256/298	91	289	8	7	29%	6%	56	-1.9	174/214/227	53	244	5	0	30%	5%	22	-1.2
✕Corey Bird 2021 · AA	25	43→53	38→40	53→55	44	208/257/280	72	257	6	16	21%	6%	52	-2.2	216/278/327	111	283	9	18	26%	7%	72	-0.7	205/272/317	112	268	9	24	26%	8%	63	-0.7
✕Mickey McDonald 2021 · AA	26	44→53	35→30	51→50	41	206/264/264	57	302	2	14	31%	7%	51	-2.3	231/303/306	75	322	4	17	27%	8%	76	-0.4	237/314/306	68	329	3	19	26%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Jordan Cowan 2021 · AA	26	50→51	36→30	50	47	235/292/295	60	295	4	13	21%	7%	68	-1.0	222/289/305	83	291	6	16	24%	8%	70	-0.8	216/288/291	75	286	4	18	24%	8%	63	-0.6
✕Adam Heisler 2014 · AAA	26	45→46	39→40	55	46	215/278/303	88	284	5	20	25%	8%	65	-1.2	225/283/328	103	294	7	15	24%	7%	73	-0.6	243/286/366	122	298	6	17	20%	5%	78	-0.1
✕Rashad Crawford 2019 · AAA	25	41→45	38→40	51→55	40	200/252/282	83	279	5	15	29%	6%	51	-2.3	215/264/298	83	304	7	17	30%	6%	59	-1.7	214/261/281	67	300	7	21	30%	6%	51	-1.7
✕Chris Roller 2023 · AA	26	38	39→45	50→55	41	183/248/269	86	262	6	14	31%	6%	47	-2.5	191/270/312	121	306	13	16	39%	8%	66	-1.1	174/262/298	124	289	15	19	41%	9%	58	-1.1
✕Jason Christian 2012 · AA	25	44	40	54→55	39	214/258/303	89	303	7	16	31%	6%	57	-1.8	208/265/284	76	296	4	10	29%	7%	56	-1.9	197/270/225	28	265	0	5	23%	8%	42	-0.9
✕Shane Opitz 2018 · AAA	26	46	37→40	46→50	43	215/255/292	77	258	4	10	18%	5%	53	-2.1	217/275/313	96	283	7	13	24%	7%	67	-1.1	192/265/272	81	264	5	15	27%	8%	51	-0.6

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps