Brooks Fowler — OGILVIE

Brooks Fowler P Hickory Crawdads

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035 peak 0.7 · 2029

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 3 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.76

FIP4.76

K%18.6%

BB%10.8%

K-BB%7.8%

ROS IP3

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 3 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$6M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.9M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	12	59	247	56	25	2	75%	3.7	16.5%	11.2%	5.3%	0.5%	2.88	3.38	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	16	12	59	247	56	25	2	75%	3.7	16.5%	11.2%	5.3%	0.5%	2.88	3.38	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	16	12	59	247	56	25	2	75%	3.7	22.7%	10.1%	12.6%	0.8%	2.88	2.91	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	TEX	1	1	3	13	2	1	0	100%	3.0	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	2.7%	4.76	4.76	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	TEX	10	10	55	231	46	23	6	100%	5.5	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	2.7%	4.61	4.55	+0.2
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	55	234	49	22	6	100%	6.2	20.8%	9.6%	11.1%	2.7%	4.49	4.42	+0.3
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	55	234	49	22	6	100%	6.2	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	2.7%	4.43	4.40	+0.3
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	9	9	55	231	49	22	6	100%	6.1	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	2.8%	4.43	4.43	+0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	TEX	4	4	23	97	19	10	3	100%	5.8	20.0%	10.1%	9.9%	2.9%	4.72	4.66	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	6	6	37	156	32	15	5	100%	6.2	20.8%	9.6%	11.1%	2.9%	4.60	4.53	+0.2
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	7	7	44	186	39	18	5	100%	6.3	21.1%	9.5%	11.6%	2.9%	4.54	4.51	+0.3
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	8	8	47	198	42	19	6	100%	5.9	21.1%	9.6%	11.5%	3.0%	4.54	4.54	+0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		26	26	151	635	133	61	19	100%	5.8	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	2.9%	4.58	4.17	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	177	81	25	100%	5.9	20.9%	9.7%	11.2%	2.9%	4.58	4.17	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		16	12	59	247	41	28	1	75%	3.7	16.5%	11.2%	5.3%	0.5%	2.88	3.38	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	40	200	833	137	93	4	75%	3.7	16.5%	11.2%	5.3%	0.5%	2.88	3.38	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Brooks Fowler (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	18.6%	10.8%	2.7%	—	4.46	20.6%	10.9%	166	-0.30	—	—	—
Ryan Atkinson R 2016 · 4.58 FIP	23	SP-	4.58	18.4%	11.3%	2.9%	.315	4.48	21.6%	9.0%	305	-0.10	4.14	338	95
Noah Denoyer R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	23	SP-	4.51	21.5%	12.1%	3.1%	.275	4.13	25.3%	15.3%	121	-0.38	3.26	181	88
Andrew Quezada R 2021 · 4.40 FIP	24	SP-	4.40	18.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.312	4.86	14.6%	6.1%	291	+0.46	4.40	412	88
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.72	16.0%	6.0%	316	+0.17	3.97	371	85
Ray Gaither R 2022 · 4.85 FIP	24	SP-	4.85	21.9%	13.2%	3.5%	.314	4.38	17.8%	5.3%	123	-0.47	3.90	164	83
Jared Karros R 2023 · 4.77 FIP	22	SP	4.77	19.0%	8.9%	3.9%	.290	5.26	17.8%	8.3%	120	+0.49	3.36	191	83
Ryan Harvey R 2023 · 5.20 FIP	22	SP	5.20	16.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.294	4.50	17.0%	5.9%	87	-0.70	4.08	133	82
Michael Knorr R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	23	SP-	4.30	23.6%	11.1%	3.3%	.312	5.18	21.7%	9.2%	123	+0.88	4.30	181	82
Nick Fraze R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	23	SP-	4.49	18.8%	7.3%	3.8%	.271	4.70	17.9%	10.2%	162	+0.21	3.86	278	82
Colin Fields R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	23	SP-	3.62	20.5%	10.3%	1.7%	.246	3.86	22.0%	13.3%	208	+0.24	2.87	254	82
Johnathan Harmon R 2023 · 4.30 FIP	22	SP-	4.30	17.8%	10.2%	2.6%	.293	5.14	15.1%	6.3%	193	+0.84	3.52	282	81
Levi Thomas R 2021 · 5.22 FIP	23	SP-	5.22	18.1%	11.9%	3.9%	.328	5.16	20.8%	3.3%	31	-0.06	5.16	116	81
Bryce Conley R 2018 · 4.71 FIP	23	SP-	4.71	20.2%	12.2%	3.2%	.269	4.88	17.4%	3.3%	197	+0.17	4.22	560	81
Jared Lyons R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	22	SP-	4.47	20.1%	15.3%	2.1%	.345	4.24	18.1%	8.1%	206	-0.23	3.28	260	80
Jordan Geber R 2022 · 5.03 FIP	23	SP-	5.03	15.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.341	4.39	15.4%	7.7%	176	-0.64	4.26	241	80
Brandon White R 2023 · 4.93 FIP	23	SP	4.93	16.7%	10.3%	3.5%	.264	4.07	17.4%	10.5%	280	-0.86	3.90	299	80
Darren Bowen R 2023 · 3.82 FIP	22	SP-	3.82	19.0%	12.8%	1.3%	.236	5.41	15.1%	4.2%	223	+1.59	3.82	278	80
Hunter Gregory R 2022 · 3.90 FIP	23	SP-	3.90	21.2%	8.7%	2.7%	.374	4.56	20.4%	7.8%	188	+0.66	3.84	249	79
Tyler Uberstine R 2022 · 4.19 FIP	23	SP-	4.19	19.5%	10.5%	2.6%	.302	4.32	22.2%	14.8%	121	+0.13	3.16	258	79
Stolmy Pimentel R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	25	SP-	4.47	16.0%	10.5%	2.5%	.338	3.87	13.6%	3.1%	72	-0.60	3.87	143	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	51	20.4%	9.9%	1.05	4.53
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Archie Bradley ('21)	2.2	74	23.2%	9.8%	0.85	3.93
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99